BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. If the Libs go with a new Leader it’s to improve their standing with the public and lead them to an election victory. Going with a novice like JBishop is a risk. Hockey is the youngest of the contenders and has time on his side. He will probably become the kingmaker.

    Don’t forget that Xenophon and Palmer are pro Turnbull and his leadership might help the Libs stabilise the Senate.

    Up until now, the Party room dislike of Turnbull may have kept him out of the race. But, the latest Abbott debacles are likely to have a despairing Party room looking for an alternative.

    Turnbull won’t run. But, he’ll be drafted for sure.

  3. [ Grahame Morris on Sky said …..any talk of leadership change is ridiculous and anyone entertaining that will have to go through him after he kneecaps them. ]

    Thats great news. abbott to continue damaging himself and the tories.

    Polls do your work!

  4. Jeepers you know when a conservative is cornered when Pink Batts are dredged up to hit Labor over the head with.

    Despite at least three or four enquires, a witch-hunt of a RC by Abbott which got Rudd on the stand – and then failed to nail him – the best that an apologist can come up with is this limp lettuce attack.

    So boats, carbon tax and mining tax – and that is it?

    Given that Rudd basically shut the door on the PSs by refusing entry to Oz, the miners stopped making any money and the CT – a market mechanism that seem to have some bite – are also fall back positions, then no wonder the conservatives are pulling their hair out over Abbott.

    The day of the three word slogan as a weapon to hit a vulnerable government over the head with is just so yesterday and weak.

    Nobody gives a stuff any more and Joe Punter has moved on.

    Clearly the government and supporters are harking back to the good old days when Abbott was questioned about nothing and elements of the media were backing him to get rid of Labor.

    Oh how things have come unglued.

    I suppose the final desperation is to claim that Labor is the worst opposition in Oz history?

    If only Labor would “just get out of the way” as Hockey would have it, and Conservative Nirvana is just a small step away.

  5. Re Abbott
    _________
    I have a friend who is a friend of an elderly Nun in Sydney…the nun was a teacher of Latin(for which she was famed) at the Seminary to which Abbott once went

    He was ,she says a very bad student at times sitting at the back of her classes reading the sports pages of the daily paper
    she has no time for him ,as you would quess

  6. Tricot

    Just as the Tories spent 40 years vilifying Whitlam at every opportunity in years to come they will still be talking about stopping the boats, axing the tax, cutting the waste …

    New ideas are thin on the ground in the world they inhabit.

  7. [David Flint is one person I would like to see have his trousers drenched by a passing car on the street.]

    In vanguardist mode, I’d say he’s one person I’d love to see Abbott give a knighthood to, just in case there is any nail-space left in the coffin lid.

  9. deblonay

    [He was ,she says a very bad student at times sitting at the back of her classes reading the sports pages of the daily paper
    she has no time for him ,as you would quess]

    And nothing about him has changed.

  11. [I’m expecting the result in Qld to be a hung Parliament.]

    If there is a hung parliament, presumably KAP, or KAP + Ind have BoP.

    Most people presume that KAP will just go for the LNP, but actually what might be smart for them is to install an ALP government for ~1 year and then do the switcheroo to the LNP. Show the LNP they are not to be taken for granted while (mostly) keeping faith with their conservative support.

    Of course I doubt they are that smart. 😉

  12. Patrick Bateman@2145

    Re the media leaving politicians alone in terms of their personal life, my strong view is that the second a politician or their party starts moralising about issues of fidelity or sexuality, the media not only can, but must, unearth any counter-examples from that politician’s own life.

    We cannot accept people telling us abortion should be banned (when they’ve had one), families are #1 (when they’ve cheated on their partner), gay people shouldn’t have the same rights as others (when they are secretly gay), Australians should be guided by “Judeo-Christian” values (when they attend a satanist bondage club on weekends) etc etc etc.

    In other words, pollies should have their privacy respected to the exact extent that they respect the privacy of their constituents.

    Difficult – I understand your point – but not sure the perfect person exists to be all things to all men at any given point.

    Is it wrong for a person who has been a bigot to, in a position of leadership, denounce bigotry? Is it wrong for a person who has struggled with fidelity to espouse the virtues of a strong marriage and home? Am I wrong as a father to guide my sons on a more virtuous path than I took myself, and not expose my reasons?

    There are, of course, situations where the public need-to-know… but we must wary of witch-hunts that destroy lives for no earthly good.

  13. A guess.

    Victoria and Gecko and others at 2135, 2141, 2148 and 2150 have given us the wisdom of the pundits, worthies such as Newman, Morris, Spiers and Hartcher, on the subject of Tony and his possible successors.

    They’re a slimy lot aren’t they? The pundits I mean in this case.

    Any way for once I tend to agree with them, at least in practicalities.

    There is no replacement for Abbott that will be acceptable to the party and the public [which sorta suggests the COALition is in deep shit].

    Turnbull has no hope, the misogynists will baulk at Bishop junior, Hockey has burnt his bridges and Cormann was on one of them at the time. There is no-one else with any public appeal even to the likes of our resident right wing nutters. I mean Dutton, Pyne, Robb, Briggs – they’re jokes.

    Maybe the hard right religious nutters [the majority?] may be able to tolerate Morrison but I’m ‘highly confident'[to use an Abottism] that the Oz public has had more than enough of him – nasty piece of works.

    So with nowhere to go and no-one to turn to they’ll burn a scapegoat, a bit of displaced aggression behaviour.

    Credlin will get the chop.
    A month or two I reckon. presuming polls stay roughly the same.

    Which will get them a brief respite, backbenchers and the same pundits plus mates will be able to mutter ‘a new beginning’ but when that wears off the party will be back in the same hole – who will be the new mask of the COALition?

    Sad aint it?

  17. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1m 1 minute ago
    So apart from QLD & WA Premiers, Barnaby Joyce, Entsch, NT chief minister, Euan Jones & Andrew Lamming any others dislike PMs Knighthood?]

  22. The ducks are lining up.

    Troy Bramston ‏@TroyBramston · 13m13 minutes ago
    Nine Syd just reported Liberal MPs ‘sounded out’ Julie Bishop about a move against Tony Abbott’s leadership last year but were rebuffed.

  23. How corrupt is this concentration of political influence?

    [The political network overseen by the conservative billionaires Charles G. and David H. Koch plans to spend close to $US900 million ($1.36 billion) on the 2016 campaign, an unparalleled effort by an outside group to shape a presidential election that is already on track to be the most expensive in history.

    The goal, announced on Monday at the Kochs’ annual winter donor retreat in Palm Springs, California, would effectively allow the Kochs’ political organisation to operate on the same financial scale as the Democratic and Republican parties. In the last presidential election, the Republican National Committee and the party’s two congressional campaign committees spent a total of $US657 million.

    The network’s $US889 million budget for 2016 includes spending on the presidential election and congressional races, and it would be financed by donors as well as the Koch brothers themselves.

    The Kochs and their advisers have built a robust political operation that includes a data and analytics firm, a state-focused issue-advocacy group, and affinity groups aimed at young voters and Hispanics.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/koch-brothers-billiondollar-plan-for-the-2016-us-campaign-20150127-12ytls.html

  25. If I was Lib (crosses self) I would move Abbott on. There is nothing to be gained from keeping him. He will never be popular or trusted so what’s the point. The damage he is doing the brand is at tipping point… there is now no up-side to Tony Abbott PM.

    Previous comments were correct in observing that unlike Rudd/Gillard, Abbott’s demise is expected and what people want. Not to act will disappoint even their own rusted-ons.

    My guess is: Morrison PM. Bishop Deputy PM. Turnbull Treasurer.

    Why Morrison? Because he’s the one I fear most.

  27. This is far more important than Tony Abbott’s flakiness.

    [The findings of the latest CSIRO and BOM report, which show Australia will be disproportionately hit by the worst effects of climate change, are almost identical to findings from their 2006 report on the same topic. What’s new is that we’ve had eight years – eight years! – to take these dire warnings on board, and have taken serious steps backwards instead.

    These reports by the CSIRO and BOM do not come cheaply. Presumably dozens of Australia’s top minds spent a significant amount of time diligently researching and writing them. What is the point of investing in research our government then ignores, and that leads, sadly, to the vilification of our scientists when they draw the obvious conclusion that we need to act now to reduce our fossil fuel reliance?

    It must be a singularly frustrating experience to be a climate scientist in Australia. UC Professor of Health and IPCC report contributor Colin Butler even resorted to chaining himself to a coal processing plant, in an attempt to make his message heard (his protest was largely ignored until Rugby Captain David Pocock joined the fray a week later).

    Far more revealing than the report itself is our politicians’ reaction to it. You would expect that the news that Australia is on track for a 5 degree rise in temperature – which would damage our Great Barrier Reef and all but destroy our agricultural and fishing industries – should be met with some degree of concern. Yet our politicians and opinion leaders have instead been preoccupied with the question of whether or not one can legitimately knight a prince.

    The situation underscores the growing disconnect between the rapid action urged by our scientists and the sad lack of political leadership on the issue. Yet we cannot just blame our leaders for the lack of action on climate change – politicians are driven by what they deem is important to their voters. Despite its long and protracted death, the carbon tax was abolished with barely a peep of real opposition from Australian voters, showing where our priorities as a nation really lie. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/australias-getting-hotter-but-we-invest-in-climate-research-only-for-it-to-be-ignored

  29. Q: Do you approve of Rosie Batty being awarded the Australian of the Year honour?
    Lib Politician: Oh yes! She is a wonderful lady fully deserving of the honour/
    Q: Do you approve of the conferance of a knighthood on Prince Phillip?
    Lib Politician: I don’t comment on such matters.

  30. […What’s new is that we’ve had eight years – eight years! – to take these dire warnings on board, and have taken serious steps backwards instead.]

    Shame, shame, shame.

  31. [Gecko

    Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    My guess is: Morrison PM. Bishop Deputy PM. Turnbull Treasurer.

    Why Morrison? Because he’s the one I fear most.
    ]

    For me Morrison is the one I’d want.

    He’s the one who is most similar to Abbott. He’s inflexible, pig-headed and has shown a desire to run everything.

    Bring it on. Please.

  33. “@LeighRMatthews: Condemnation of the PM decision to make PP a Sir is as universal as it gets. Disturbing when the ‘why’ logic from our leader escapes us all”

  35. fredex

    I have been feeling a little guilty today because there is a reasonable chance I shall not live to see the worst of global warming, so I shan’t suffer the worst effects. And more guilt because through my lifetime I have watched the destruction of so much of the natural environment and have been able to do nothing to stop it.

  36. [ My guess is: Morrison PM. Bishop Deputy PM. Turnbull Treasurer. ]

    I’d say Morrison is a real contender, but i really dont think Bishop would take Deputy again and there is nowhere for Turnbull under Morrison except to continue as Chief Sh!t Sandwich Eater.

    Morrison would probably give them their best shot at mid term stability since the Right Wing nuttjobies in the Libs would get behind him and keep any Bishop supporters cowed and in line.

    If Bishop is PM then the Morrison backers would be a constant threat, particularly if Turnbull is elevated to Treasurer (he’d have to be Deputy for that??). And they would be the viscous types who can make the Rudd white-anting look like sweet gentle reason.

    Turnbull as PM would be, electorally, their best move in the short term but he would be wayyyyyyyyy vulnerable to being undermined by, well, just about everybody in Parliament and would be seen as too disposable.

    Credlin will have to go if there is any change away from Abbott.

    No idea how they would fill out their front bench. Fwarking chaos among dweebs to ensue with an Abbott dumping.

  37. [ I have been feeling a little guilty today because there is a reasonable chance I shall not live to see the worst of global warming, ]

    Dont lizzie. It’ll get you on the next time around. 🙁

  38. Barney
    [For me Morrison is the one I’d want.

    He’s the one who is most similar to Abbott. He’s inflexible, pig-headed and has shown a desire to run everything.]

    He is also commanding, intelligent, across detail, politically savvy, can argue the point and is regarded (in house) as the most successful/competent Minister the government has.

  40. lizzie

    [This is far more important than Tony Abbott’s flakiness]
    It is but The National Embarrassment’s ‘flakiness’ is an important part of why we are now doing SFA to help .

  42. Gecko

    [Is it wrong for a person who has been a bigot to, in a position of leadership, denounce bigotry? Is it wrong for a person who has struggled with fidelity to espouse the virtues of a strong marriage and home? Am I wrong as a father to guide my sons on a more virtuous path than I took myself, and not expose my reasons?]

    It’s not “wrong” to take a different position to the one you have lived yourself. It’s a sign of growth in some people.

    It is, however, very wrong to pretend to be a paragon of virtue while lecturing others about not doing the very things you have secretly done yourself.

    I.e. if you have cheated on your spouse and later want to espouse ‘family values’, you need to confess your sins too. No problem with the ‘trust me, I’ve been there, you don’t want to go there’ line. Huge problems with the moralising while doing the thing you tell others not to do routine.

  43. lizzie

    [
    I have been feeling a little guilty today because there is a reasonable chance I shall not live to see the worst of global warming,]
    As I have said many times for a number of years. A very large granite monument should ne erected in countries and on to it chiseled the names of those who stood firm against doing anything . The “Climate Change is Crap” brigade. On such a monument their names will last thousands of years.

  45. Sohar @2182: my thoughts as well. I don’t think Australian democracy is as robust as we think. Can it survive a Depression or a major regional war? I doubt it. Look at the draconian measures being adopted becsuse the Government is worried about a few idiot jihadis or terrified by boat people.

    Morrison ticks all the boxes – white Anglo, a follower of a simple brand of Christianity, authoritarian, likes to wrap himself in military mystique secretive, a nasty headkicker who destroyed a career to get nto parliament. All too happy to play on the fear of the ‘other’.

    He worries me. I don’t want him anywhere near the levers of power.

  46. [my thoughts as well. I don’t think Australian democracy is as robust as we think. Can it survive a Depression or a major regional war? I doubt it. ]
    I worry about this too – many Australians naively think that democracy is a sort of self-righting ship, and fail to appreciate that the post-WWII period is in some respects quite unusual in terms of prosperity and stability.

    If the US really turned nasty, for example, Australia would surely be close behind. We can add to the mix an almost unprecedented level of media concentration. And one can certainly look at the characters in Parliament and speculate about which ones would look right in a natty Hugo Boss uniform.

    While the US is having a relatively mature debate about government surveillance, we are rushing headlong towards total access for all government authorities. Those who fail to learn the lessons of history and all that.

  47. Julie Bishop making preemptive leadershit strike from Afghanistan ( forgot her Carla Zampati camouflage dress)

    Expect Tony to make secret last minute visit to Afghanistan to supervise removal of splinter from our brave troops foot.

    Malcolm Turnbull announces he won’t be visiting Afghanistan in public or in secret

  48. sceptic
    [
    Julie Bishop making preemptive leadershit strike from Afghanistan]
    On the other hand Jules’ ‘surprise’ visit to Afghanistan is understandable if she knew of Prince Phil’s gong. Best to be in a another hemisphere when that shit grenade went orf.

  49. Yes, Steve777. Democratic values in Australia have been in decline since Howard arrived as PM – secrecy, non-accountability and corruption have become common. The media (including the ABC) have made it possible for this to happen. If fascism would benefit those that control this country, then the media will just go along with it as it is owned/controlled by those same people. Morrison would need to shut down social media though.

  50. I was at an Oz Day citizenship ceremony that Morrison was at. He would definitely be the one to fear for Labor types I reckon. Bishop as evidenced by her efforts in shadow treasury isn’t up to it and would quickly fall on her face. Turnbull would be a danger if he had no more than 6 months to an election, but much longer and the delusions that he is some sort of moderate would quickly fall away (assuming the Libs were so desperate to go to him in the first place).

    Morrison might be known as hard man from his OSB days, but he gave a very generous and friendly welcome speech and worked the room with an approachable and casual manner. I could easily see him taking a honeymoon that anyone who replaces the incumbent numpty will get and building on it by presenting a persona to the electorate that the great majority of potential Coalition voters will find agreeable. He’s nothing like Abbott and it would be a grave mistake to underestimate him. I would hate him for his policies but he would combine ruthlessness with a basic level of competence that will only look even greater in comparison to Abbott and an ability to speak to ordinary people in an easy-going manner.

    We were all correct that Abbott was a buffoon whose stupidity would eventually become so obvious as to be unelectable, just wrong on how long his minders would be able to keep him (mostly) out of trouble (and how much the media would gloss over to get him up). Don’t be deluded that Morrison is cut from the same cloth. He’d be a formidable opponent that would need to be beaten because he’d be unlikely to self destruct.

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