Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a strong result for Labor last week, Essential Research’s generally slow-moving fortnightly rolling average records a solid tick to the Coalition.

Essential Research now has two weeks of polling to rub a fortnightly rolling average together, and the addition of this week’s sample to last week’s result causes two-party preferred to tick a point in the Coalition’s favour, from 54-46 to 53-47. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor, Greens and Palmer United respectively steady on 40%, 10% and 2%. Further questions find skepticism about Australian involvement in Iraq, the ABC and the High Court rated most trusted out of a specified list of “institutions and organisations” (though it doesn’t include police and defence forces, which might have rated higher), and the medical profession trusted in use of personal information but social media sites not so much. Also featured are interesting questions on internet and social media use, and a less interesting one on sports events.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Some people are just never happy!

    The Pope tells Catholics they don’t need to breed like rabbits and now the rabbit breeders are unhappy with his comments.

  2. Alan Jones is out of control again. He is giving Newman the same blowtorch approach he gave Gillard.

    We will be all better off when he retires.

  3. [Having said this, it will be soon time for Shorten and Labor to make some vague gestures towards that which Labor might do to regain office.

    I would think a set of about 6-7 broad promises (a la Abbott), a 10 page booklet (a la Abbott) and a phoney launch of said stuff (a la Abbott) just to shut the arm chair mob up for awhile.]

    Tricot The irony (but lovely to see) of Shorten and Bowen holding up a little ‘red’ book every time a camera is near 🙂

    I’m being patient – they promised some more policy talk this year and that will have to happen. I just hope that Andrew Leigh is prominent everywhere. His intellect is head and shoulders above anyone else in Parliament but he speaks to us clearly without patronising us. A top pollie in my book.

  4. Regrettably Lizzie, TPOF, such incidents are not uncommon in the US. the ‘right to bear arms’ does not protect those with bare arms.

    Sorry about the humour here, but if you don’t laugh, you cry out in distress.

    The whole Second Amendment thing is so boneheadedly stupid — a really good example of non-religious but populist fundamentalism in that it rips the words not only out of their historic context, but their linguistic context as well.

    The dreadful result is that the free availability of guns in the context of a heavily urbanised and inequitably society is a huge toll in injuries, premature death and gun-enabled/related criminal activity.

    The reality is that hardly anyone is legitimately advantaged by possession of a gun, even in a place like America, and the risks of domestic violence and household mishap turning lethal go way up.

    Interestingly, a pro-gun group recently tried to restage the Charlie Hebdo incident with people proficient in guns (they used paintballs) to show that had the staff been armed they’d have survived better. As it turned out, their own test refuted them. Everyone still got killed and only in a couple of re-enactments were the attackers injured or killed. And these were people expecting to be attacked who were trained in the use of firearms.

    It’s just dreadfully sad.

  5. BH@203

    Viewed with the same jaundiced eye as myself.

    I don’t blame Labor for playing dead in the water with “vision” but this word can be manipulated to suit any purpose.

    We all saw what Keating did to Hewson, on what I though was an reasonable attempt to explain his GST policy.

    The fact that Keating wanted it himself but was willing to destroy Hewson over GST made Labor’s position with Big Kim and few years later untenable when Howard eventually bit the bullet.

    Which goes to show that Labor can be, when it suits, as devious as any political party when it comes to the scent of the government bench.

  6. It’ll be an interesting argument – we’ll reduce your cost of living by denying you cheaper alternatives, because big businesses aren’t making enough profit.

  7. [ Interestingly, a pro-gun group recently tried to restage the Charlie Hebdo incident with people proficient in guns (they used paintballs) ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/15/texas-gun-group-charlie-hebdo-paintball

    [ A pro-gun rights group in Texas re-enacted the Charlie Hebdo attacks with paintball rounds, in an attempt to see whether an “armed civilian” could have stopped the two gunmen who attacked the Paris office of the satirical magazine, killing 12. The civilian “died” in almost every scenario except immediate flight from the scene. ]

    Thanks for that pointer Fran. These US gun nuts just dont get it.

  8. [Which goes to show that Labor can be, when it suits, as devious as any political party when it comes to the scent of the government bench.]

    Tricot@206

    Yes, altho I’d dearly love my preferred mob to be above it, that’s a pipe dream.

    I never quite got Hewson in 1993 but he certainly makes sense now. Abbott would have been wiser to listen to him rather than the IPA clones … or should that be clowns

  9. Interestingly, a pro-gun group recently tried to restage the Charlie Hebdo incident with people proficient in guns (they used paintballs)

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/15/texas-gun-group-charlie-hebdo-paintball

    A pro-gun rights group in Texas re-enacted the Charlie Hebdo attacks with paintball rounds, in an attempt to see whether an “armed civilian” could have stopped the two gunmen who attacked the Paris office of the satirical magazine, killing 12. The civilian “died” in almost every scenario except immediate flight from the scene.

    Even if the results went in their favour, they’ve got the benefits of hindsight! The staff of CH was aware when they went to work that day.

  10. BH@194

    Mungo, like me, pines for the Whitlam Government.

    Nothing subsequently has even come close.


    Oh, yeah, I pine for the days when Cairns and Moroni were playing soulmates, when the Iraqi loans affair and Govt chaos was splattered around every bbq and office water cooler.

    Dream on, bemused. I’m a huge Gough fan and his achievements immense but I’m not looking backwards. In my 8th decade I’m going forward with my kids and grandkids.

    Mungo still has a bee in his bonnet about the old days and Rudd. He needs to get over it.

    You have a selective memory.

    Whitlam came to government after many years working on ‘The Program’ and arguing the case for it, winning the argument and persuading the electorate.

    That is what Mungo and I would like to see repeated.

    Of course the content will be rather different to what Whitlam argued, but it is the method of setting the agenda and winning the argument that should remain the same.

    Even the IPA droogs have acknowledged this.

  11. [Of course the content will be rather different to what Whitlam argued, but it is the method of setting the agenda and winning the argument that should remain the same.]

    bemused

    Agree on that but what most people remembered until Gough’s agenda was resurrected recently was the chaos.

    Shorten seems to have taken all that on board. We’ll soon see.

  12. @9

    That’s the difference between Facebook and Twitter.

    Twitter is a medium for publishing thoughts… it’s a “microblog”. Most people rarely use it. Most who do post regularly see themselves as “bloggers” or journalists.

    Facebook is a medium for sharing and coordinating things with friends, family and colleagues. For example, it’s how my favourite restaurant publishes availability of tables (due to cancellation). It’s how my local badminton club notifies members of times and availability for games. It’s how my 80-year-old grandmother shares photos of grandkids with the extended family and coordinates Christmas parties.

    Facebook is a method of sharing information with a close circle of acquaintances. Twitter is a method of publishing to a wider audience. It’s no surprise that Twitter is more popular with media types, while Facebook is more used by the general population.

  13. B@above

    The Whitlam years were halcyon – being out of office for 23 years, and running close in 1969, gave some kind of historical bite to the win in 1972.

    Stating the bleeding obvious, we do not live that era any longer.

    To use a cooking analogy, the slow simmer to boil for Whitlam and the promise of a well thought out menu has now been supplanted by quick food/take-away.

    We now live in an era when any thought lasting longer than 5 minutes is too boring for most and the throw-way mentality is sticking to political parties.

    The one term Liberal regime in Victoria – along with some others – may become the norm rather than the oddity.

    In any event, the town hall gatherings to propagate new policy will never likely return – other than for some kind of media event.

    Went to see Hawke at full tilt at Mt Hawthorne Community Centre in Perth just before the ’72 election. It has been many a long day since such passion and belief has been seen on the hustings.

    People neither believe much today nor care much either other than self-interest – and by “people” I mean Joe Public rather than the rusted-ons here.

  14. Lol!

    [Tony Burke ✔ @Tony_Burke
    Follow
    Apparently Tony Abbott has become the Voldemort of the LNP. None of them are willing to say his name out loud in case it makes him stronger.
    10:56 AM – 21 Jan 2015 Torres Strait, Australia]

    Talk later

  15. Obviously I haven’t seen them, but those Uni ads must have been real blockbusters.

    $8 million and the result, less votes in the Senate than what you started with.

    Very smooth operators.

  16. vic

    [Obviously Abbott has not shown up yet]
    Someone should run a Where’s Wally type pisstake using a cardboard cutout of Abbott popping up around Qld.

  17. poroti @ 232

    It’s like the Hunting of the Snark. Abbott is the boojum. If seen by any member of the LNP re-election search party, the whole party will softly and silently vanish away.

  18. Harbin Snow festival? Nice. Very nice. Lucky duck.

    Sarah Palin would be able to see Russia from there.

    Whats Shenyang got going for it?

  19. poroti

    [Someone should run a Where’s Wally type pisstake using a cardboard cutout of Abbott popping up around Qld.]

    I’d really really like to see that.

    It’ll be great if some cartoonist does that and put all the parody and clichés of politicians in a scene with Abbott hidden somewhere (or not at all).

  20. poroti

    armed to the teeth with merino baselayers, down jackets and one of those hats with flaps over the ears.

    SK

    Shenyang has an Imperial Palace – it was once the seat of the Empire. Other than that, we’re going to find out!

  21. The joke about Sarah Palin has gone on its rounds long enough. As much as I like to ridicule Palin, the joke has to be attributed to Tina Fey who did a few Sarah Palin parodies, including that one where she said she could see Russia from Alaska.

  22. |Someone should run a Where’s Wally type pisstake using a cardboard cutout of Abbott popping up around Qld.
    |
    |by poroti on Jan 21, 2015 at 12:08 pm

    A life-size Abbott carried by someone wearing an ‘I’m with stupid’ t-shirt popping up at LNP events would be perfect.

  23. Campbell Newman getting a character reference from QLD police union president

    [“I had a meeting with Campbell Newman, he promised me $20 million to fund the 15 (precincts) across the state, and Campbell Newman looked me in the eye and he lied to me.

    “I’m a serving police officer. If you’re going to lie to a police officer, you’ll lie to anyone.”

    Mr Leavers said the Safe Night Precincts are stretching police resources.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-21/police-union-president-says-newman-lied-safe-night-out-funding/6030782

  24. Raaraa @ 242

    Although the ‘see Russia from my house’ quote was Tina Fey, the original statement by Palin was “They’re our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska”, in response to being asked what insights she had about Russia living in Alaska.

    The real quote is in the same class as Hockey’s 150 year old baby – barely possible but definitely irrelevant.

  25. BIS @ 243

    [A life-size Abbott carried by someone wearing an ‘I’m with stupid’ t-shirt popping up at LNP events would be perfect.]

    On past performances, the police will arrest the cut-out.

  26. I see that the Coalitionistas have a plan to stop the Coalition kicking itself to death: urge Shorten to kick himself to death.

    The reason it is absolutely absurd to expect Shorten to firm up on policies is that not even the Pope could predict the state of Australia’s environment, society and economy by the end of three years of the Coalition Government’s ‘reforms’.

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