10.12pm. The tide continues to go out on the Greens in Richmond, where the ABC computer now has Labor ahead (just).
9.30pm. Okay, got it to open now. Albert Park now being called for Labor, and quite comfortably at that. Frankston still down as Labor gain, unless Steve Bracks had better knowledge when he spoke earlier. There’s now a 2.0% swing to Labor in Ivanhoe, so that danger has passed. Nationals ahead in Morwell, so obviously that’s one we’ll keep tracking over the next few days. Richmond is, in fact, dead level – if that’s a trend, the Greens won’t win after all. Maybe there’s something in the idea that Labor will do better on pre-polls, maybe not. Either way, it’s staying on the watch list. Ripon now Liberal retain, so a good show by Labor but probably no cigar. The ABC computer says Liberal retain in South Barwon, but it’s on the basis of a very slender lead, so obviously it’s only just inside its error margin.
9.28pm. Been attending to a bit of dinner, and now I can’t get the ABC results page to open. But I understand it’s wound Richmond back from Greens gain to Greens ahead.
8.49pm. Steve Bracks now says Frankston is very tight. 12.7% of Frankstonians were sufficiently silly in the head to vote for Geoff Shaw, and these preferences are going hard to the Liberals, which the ABC computer probably didn’t see coming.
8.40pm. One thing I will say about Richmond is that Stephen Jolly (9.3%) is doing a lot better than the Sex Party (3.1%), which is presumably good news for the Greens.
8.36pm. Mary Wooldridge now sounding confident about Ripon — perhaps over-confident but clearly it’s close.
8.35pm. Confusion over Richmond now being acknowledged. Steve Bracks not calling it, but he doesn’t sound all that confident either. Labor have been creeping up in South Barwon – now dead level.
8.30pm. That narrow Labor lead in Ripon never went away. ABC calling it for Labor, but the Liberals might still hope for pre-polls.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Albert Park for Labor. I suggested on News Radio earlier there was still a worst case scenario for Labor where they only one 44 seats, but I’d say that dispatches of it.
8.25pm. Greens now ahead in Brunswick, but I don’t really get the Richmond numbers.
8.22pm. Back now, in case you’ve missed me. ABC computer still calling Richmond for the Greens, but there’s still only one booth on 2PP, the primary vote movements look pretty modest, and maybe Labor will be hopeful about pre-polls.
8.03pm. If you’re a fan of my dulcet tones, I’ll be on News Radio at 8.10. Posting activity has lightened because I’m stepping back and doing my homework.
7.59pm. ABC computer no longer calling South Barwon for Liberal – “LIB AHEAD”.
7.54pm. Prahran interesting: very tight for Labor and Greens to make second, whoever does it will ride home over Libs in preferences. Steve Bracks thinks pre-polls will decided it in Labor’s favour.
7.52pm. Okay, Labor-friendly primary votes are being recorded from Richmond, but they’re swinging big to Richmond. Too early to call, but closer than I indicated. Northcote a bridge too far for the Liberals though. Greens pretty much home in Melbourne. Tight in Brunswick, Labor slightly ahead.
7.50pm. Steve Bracks says he “believes” Labor will win Ripon, calls clean sweep of sandbelt with Prahran included, says Morwell can’t be counted out yet, sounds slightly dubious but still hopeful about Eildon, and calls the election for Labor.
7.49pm. ABC computer has Labor ahead in Ivanhoe now. Craig Langdon polling weakly at 2.5%, so the Liberals’ strength here is actually on their own back.
7.48pm. Greens looking very good in Melbourne though.
7.46pm. Getting very mixed signals on Richmond, which I believe Antony just said was one of two seats where the computer has them ahead. I wonder if he might have had that wrong, or whether I heard wrong. With three booths counted, Greens on only 21.9% of primary vote: with 2600 counted on 2PP, 5.5% swing to Labor.
7.45pm. Labor on track to win Prahran, says Antony. The computer is calling it for them.
7.44pm. Antony turns on his prediction software: Labor definitely 45, which means Labor definitely wins.
7.43pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed almost level with Nationals in Shepparton on primary vote with 40.3% counted. Unless there’s some regional peculiarity brewing, she should win comfortably.
7.42pm. Right down to the wire in Eildon and Ripon.
7.41pm. Much less good for the Greens though in Richmond.
7.40pm. Another latte belt update. The ABC computer is calling Melbourne for the Greens, and contrary to what I said just now, with nose in front in Northcote. I suspect that projecting Labor-versus-Greens is harder than Labor-versus-Liberal though.
7.38pm. Now over 30% counted in Ripon, Labor still with its nose in front.
7.37pm. Steve Bracks reckons Labor ahead in Morwell, which is not what the ABC computer was saying last I’ve looked, and the Nats are under pressure from an independent in Shepparton.
7.36pm. Mary Wooldridge still thinking the Liberals are ahead in Ivanhoe. She’s talking up the swing to the Libs in Narre Warren North, but clearly it won’t cost them the seat, so it sounds like grasping at straws.
7.33pm. ABC computer calling Bentleigh for Labor: 16.1% counted, 3.0% swing to Labor, 0.9% Liberal margin.
7.31pm. Glenn Druery tweets: “On these very, very early numbers minor parties are being elected in the Upper House.. hehehehe.”
7.30pm. Sky News calls the election for Labor, whatever that means exactly.
7.29pm. Labor not home yet in Cranbourne: 16.9% counted, 0.2% swing to Liberal, 1.1% Labor margin. Antony noting consistent 3-4% swings, entirely in line with that poll trend.
7.27pm. ABC computer calls Yan Yean for Labor.
7.25pm. Good early result from the Liberals for Ivanhoe, which they need. Labor “on the cusp of victory” says Antony, summarising situation well.
7.24pm. ABC computer calls South Barwon and Gembrook for Liberal, so certainly not a complete bloodbath.
7.23pm. Ripon likely Labor gain, says ABC computer. The Libs would want to have bagged that one by now — 16.6% counted. But observe my earlier note of caution about Ripon, as earlier reporting booths will be the Swan Hill ones where Nationals are losing sitting member.
7.18pm. ABC TV has more up to date figures from Frankston, with 5.7% counted. This is from the Liberal end of the seat (i.e. the south), and there’s a 6.0% swing to Labor. Maybe the rest of the electorate will behave differently though.
7.16pm. Sandbelt update: Steve Bracks says 2% swing to Labor in Carrum – very tight. ABC numbers from Bentleigh trailing behind what James Campbell is hearing, probably close there but maybe with Labor with nose in front. Labor looking like taking Mordialloc. But next to nothing from Frankston.
7.16pm. Liberals actually not out of the woods in Eildon, but more likely to win than not.
7.15pm. Labor to hold Monbulk, barring big late reversal.
7.14pm. ABC computer calls Bellarine for Labor.
7.13pm. Antony pours cold water on Eildon. Data entry error, by the sounds.
7.12pm. Antony making troubling noises for Coalition: seven or so Labor gains, precisely in line with those poll tracking projections. Mary Wooldridge sounding grim. Steve Bracks says 6% swing to Labor in Bellarine, which they need.
7.10pm. James Campbell of Herald-Sun tweets four booths in Bentleigh are all swinging to Labor, though not by much.
7.09pm. ABC computer very interestingly calls Eildon for Labor with 10.8% swing, although with only 7.7% counted I’d keep that on watch status. Bendigo East and Wendouree called for Labor.
7.07pm. Double-digit swing in Malvern with over 20% counted. Possibly part of a broad trend of these areas getting less blue, without putting the Liberals in any danger.
7.05pm. Over 10% counted in Morwell, 4.6% swing to Labor, but Nationals to hold.
7.01pm. Okay, first numbers from the sandbelt. Mordialloc: two booths with 4.7% counted, big 7.5% swing to Labor. This is the Labor-voting end of the electorate, but still, a big swing’s a big swing.
7.00pm. Mary Wooldridge is also hearing of a swing to Labor in the other Ballarat seat of Wendouree. Big swing to Labor in Benambra, so maybe Bill Tilley hasn’t made himself popular. He’s still safe though.
6.59pm. ABC calls Euroa for the Nationals, in case there was any notion the Liberals might win there.
6.58pm. ABC computer apparently calling Buninyong for Labor, with 5.5% swing.
6.57pm. 7.3% counted in Burwood, 2.6% swing to Labor. The Liberals were getting a bit worried about that one late in the campaign. Jeff Kennett’s old seat, which Labor held from the 1999 by-election after Kennett quit until 2010. Not a must-win seat though by any means.
6.55pm. A solid 6.2% counted in Bundoora, very little swing.
6.54pm. ABC computer calling Macedon for Labor with 5.1% swing in their favour, off their existing margin of 2.3%.
6.49pm. Only 1.8% counted in Ripon, but still, a 2.3% swing to Labor. But we’re probably talking the northern end of the electorate that was formerly in Swan Hill, where the Nationals are losing the personal vote of a sitting member. Things could well swing around when we get bigger booths at the southern end, where it’s Labor who are losing the sitting member. In Yan Yean, first booth swings big to Labor, but only 0.5% counted.
6.47pm. Really big Liberal swing in Polwarth with 5.3% counted.
6.46pm. The ABC projects the first booth from Ripon as a 10.5% swing to the Liberals.
6.42pm. Steve Bracks on ABC reckons 3% swing to Labor in Eltham and 7% swing in Narre Warren North, which would be great news for them – but Mary Wooldridge says she’s seeing the opposite from the latter. She also relates a 1.4% swing on early figures from Ripon, which is less than they would be hoping for.
6.40pm. Big swing to Labor in first small booth in Nepean, so swings and roundabouts at this stage.
6.39pm. Now up to 4.1% counted in Hawthorn, 1.8% swing to the Liberals, which is very mildly encouraging for them.
6.36pm. Antony relates the Nationals are well ahead in Euroa, where the Liberals have annoyed them by fielding a candidate. Maybe the Liberals well do better when bigger centres come in. Small swing to the Liberals in Buninyong, but a tiny rural booth – this one will be decided in bigger Ballarat booths.
6.33pm. Status quo result in the first Hawthorn booth. Big swing to Labor in Lowan, reflecting Hugh Delahunty’s retirement, but still safe Nationals. Swing to the Liberals in Polwarth. Nothing of real interest though.
6.30pm. Single booths trickling in from various electorates around the place, but Macedon still the only one that’s marginal.
6.27pm. Antony on TV says tiny first booth in Macedon has a 0.5% swing to Labor, which they hold by 2.3%.
6.22pm. Antony Green tweets that that Mildura projection is based on 90 votes. Still reckon you can take that one to the bank.
6.15pm. A booth from Mildura is in, and it’s enough for the ABC computer to call it for the Nationals. A foregone conclusion of course, but there it is.
6pm. Welcome to my live blogging of the Victorian election count, for which polls have just closed. The very first results should start trickling in in about half an hour. Known knowns:
• As I type, a Newspoll exit poll should be going to air. I don’t believe the record of Newspoll exit polling has been all that special, but maybe they’ve improved. In any event, watch this space. UPDATE: Newspoll keeps it simple by concurring with Galaxy in having it at 51-49 to Labor.
• A Galaxy exit poll conducted at polling booths today has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. But a similar exercise conducted at pre-poll booths found Labor leading 52.5-47.5. Since maybe a bit over 70% of voters are likely to be cast today (meaning ordinary votes plus absent votes) and nearly 20% cast at pre-polls, and the rest should consist of postals which will be more favourable to the Liberals, this suggests to me that the current BludgerTrack reading is maybe half a point too favourable to Labor, although that’s well within any plausible error margin. So stay tuned, in other words.
• Unlike at federal elections, pre-poll votes will not be counted this evening. So if it’s close, expect tonight’s proceedings to be inconclusive. If so, the VEC will swing into action counting pre-poll votes, as they did in 2010 to resolve the crucial seat of Bentleigh.
• Labor are crying foul that the Greens are not directing preferences in a whole swathe of very important seats, namely Bellarine, Bentleigh, Buninyong, Carrum, Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Ringwood, South Barwon, Wendouree and Yan Yean – and apparently the Liberals issued an open ticket in Melbourne, which gives Labor good cause to feel suspicious about a possible deal between them.
They have indeed always offered to back Labor governments. That’s great, but until they bring something to the table that also benefits Labor (i.e. Liberal seats) then Labor will continue to feel threatened.
areaman @ 599 -I entirely agree with you on this point. I’m just pointing out that Labor and the Greens aren’t friends, and it’s unreasonable to expect them to be so.
Finally got to end of thread – even as it was lengthening!
lefty e – 595 – I agree that no-one “owns” electorates or demographics. This is how the Coalition lost Mildura, Gippsland West, and Gippsland East (and hopefully now Shepparton) to Independents. Much the same way BK’s favorite Liberal (Sophie) lost Indi federally.
Labor has to fight to win inner city electorates. The Greens will also fight to win them.
I doubt somehow that the Coalition will preference the Greens to “make mischief”. Labor used to do this in Victoria when the Libs were in power without needing the Nats – they would alternately preference the Libs and Nats in these “three-cornered” contests. Provided some amusement, but Labor stayed out of office for 27 years.
So I think the Libs will very much stick with their anti-Greens stance, pushed by the Nats. As for Labor and the Greens and the Upper house shenanigans – the whole system hopefully will bechanged to preferencing above the line by the time of the next election reducing this as an issue.
598 no, I’m saying that expecting the greens to waste time and money flailing at un-winnable liberal seats is insulting. There’s no evidence that they greens would have any more success in those areas than the labor party would.
As soon as the demographics shift enough that they would have a chance so would the ALP and at that point goal posts are shifted again and the greens get stuck in the “no true scotsman” (or no true liberal party seat) zone.
areaman @ 604 – mexicanbeemer has just pointed out the evidence to you – the Greens have polled over 20% in Hawthorn. If the Greens spent money to try and get into second place by taking votes off Labor and the Libs, then Labor preferences could well help get the Greens over the line. Until the Greens actually try, then we won’t know.
a 604 – I agree with an earlier poster who said the most fertile ground for Greens to take on Libs was Adelaide Hills. Seems just the right demographic mix to do it.
Julie Bishop could be planning more than a shirtfront to Putin
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-reopens-nuclear-debate-as-route-to-cut-carbon-dioxide-emissions-20141129-11w17k.html
Of course I’d love to see the business case. Usually very expensive to set up, long lead-in time, let alone waht the hell do you do with all the waste?
605 the hawthon results look much better for the greens than the kooyong results do, so I think we can assume they are spending that time an money. Even if they even they took another 7% from the libs all they’d do is shift the seat into three way territory.
Hawthorn – I could see the Greens coming 2nd with lots of rsources, but if the Libs get 54% primaries in a losing election it’s hard to see them not winning. Also if the Greens put a lot of effort into Hawthorn I would imagine there would be many more nominees from other “parties” and independents as often seems to happen in seats of interest. This tends to muddy the waters and funnel votes back to the sitting member that they may otherwise not have got.
areaman @ 608 – if they took 7% off the Libs (a tall order in any case) they would win the seat off Labor preferences.
Just have a look at the numbers:
http://tallyroom.vic.gov.au/vtr/HawthornDistrict.html
Its about building support over time just as the Greens have done in seats like Prahran, I’m not saying the Greens will win Hawthorn or Malvern but if they start coming a strong second then that will increase their support in the LC.
By the next state election, the main political rivalry will be between the ALP and the Greens within the area from Sunshine to Windsor to Heidelberg to Coburg.
It’s a rivalry, of course, and the ALP should articulate its case as well as it can.
But if the ALP cannot *distinguish* this rivalry with the Greens with its rivalry with the Libs then it is mad.
Greens understand that not everyone that supports them votes for them.
I can’t speak for ALP advocates.
That is with a 3% swing to the ALP
The next election will be shaped by the outcome of the E-W-Link project and progress on the removal of 50 rail crossings
610 it’s a super tall order, but even if they could that it’s not like the ALP wouldn’t be in contention, and again at that point it’s apparently not a “liberal seat” anymore.
My point continues to be that even Hawthorn isn’t an example of a liberal seat that the greens could win that the ALP wouldn’t have a similar chance at.
mexicanbeemer
[The Greens cracked 20% in Hawthorn and did beat the ALP across Toorak, Kooyong and many other similar booths.]
I’m guessing most of this 20% is coming from the youth vote out of the Swinburne campus in Hawthorn. Plenty of student apartments there.
Martin B @ 613 – I can only speak for myself as one Labor voter and member – I do indeed distinguish between the Greens and Coalition. The Coalition are the actual threat to this country, and if the Greens can help Labor achieve it’s goals, great. I think that Labor and the Greens are rivals the same way that the Nats and the Libs are rivals.
Can the legco numbers even be taken seriously now? There is a crazy number of micro parties!
How can you get both Country Alliance and Shooters and Fishers in Northern Vic?
This upper house is going to be a good example of why it will always be dopey for Labor to throw tanties at the left and deal with right-wing minor parties.
It feels good to get all righteous at the time, but then you get an upper house, reliant on a conservative majority and wingnuts of various flavours to pass your legislation.
And as a political observer that’s a great opportunity to get out the popcorn, but it’s not a very bright way of governing.
areaman @ 616 fair enough. We’ll just have to agree to disagree. Personally I think the Greens should try, if for no other reason than to be able to say to Labor “look we tried. Now shut up and stop whinging.”
603
The ALP alternating preferences between the Liberals and the Nationals was not what was hurting the ALP in Victoria. The Split cost the ALP competitivity in Victoria from 1955 to at least 1967. Had the ALP campaign not fallen apart in 1970, such as if the intervention in the Victorian branch had been 1969 or earlier and not caused the state aid fight, they may have won then. They ended up only winning the 3 seats they won on Country Party preferences (Portland, Kara Kara and Dundas).
Hamer was popular and would have won anyway in 1973 and 1976.
Thinking of Swinburne, I am surprised at that Evelyn swing only being 3% or something, not sure how the Liliydale booths reacted.
[The next election will be shaped by the outcome of the E-W-Link project ]
As has been observed, if Andrews Labor suddenly finds that the contracts were a little tighter, and the legal case more precarious, and the business case more compelling (and exactly equally confidential) then it would be saying: “Here, Greens, have these six seats for a decade.”
BTW, did Andrews mention E-W Link in his speech?
618 I’ve got a giant piles of bullshit authorised (in tiny writing) by F Richardson and D Feeney suggesting than not everyone involved with the ALP can tell the difference.
622 – I know it was just a sideshow. But essentially pointless. EVen though I am delving deep into the past I try and look ahead. Ben Elton ahs written a book about someone going back in time and trying to prevent the First World War. Last night I thought about whether you could go back and prevent the split. Kept me awake for some time!
Terry McCrann is getting cranky (ier)
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-2014-daniel-andrews-is-now-in-a-real-jam/story-fnocy1xj-1227139618501
I think he see the problem as being not the Coalition but the electorate. And apparently Labor has inherited all these hitherto unheard of problems in the state. I am sure Terry and his ilk until yesterday were saying how swimmingly it was all going under the Coalition!
[This upper house is going to be a good example of why it will always be dopey for Labor to throw tanties at the left and deal with right-wing minor parties.]
Hallelujah. ALP – get pragmatic.Actually,that goes for GRns too.Pref the ALP not PUP and that sort of rubbish.
Better yet – lets ABOLISH group tickets.
[As has been observed, if Andrews Labor suddenly finds that the contracts were a little tighter, and the legal case more precarious, and the business case more compelling (and exactly equally confidential) then it would be saying: “Here, Greens, have these six seats for a decade.”
BTW, did Andrews mention E-W Link in his speech?]
No he didnt. But I dont think Andrews can roll over on E-W link. That would be indeed be saying: “I dont need any inner city seats, ever, give them ALL to the Greens”
Bolt also losing it
Has Campbell Newman’s Queensland Government been radical or bland in tackling debt? Now look: cruising to victory
Must not have seen any polling!
628
If the ALP rolled on the East-West Link, it would loose a lot of credibility. They were elected to focus on PT, as was the previous government. Look were supporting the East-West Link got the Previous Government.
Best comments on Bolt’s thread
The biggest lesson that the Liberals need to learn is that right wing extremist columnists do not represent the views of the majority
Packed yet, Andrew?
Abbott needs to harden up, we voted for someone to straighten up the place. If you want to know why you are slipping in the polls, it’s not because you are too right, it’s because you are too LEFT! Same went for Napthine!
We were hoping like hell at the federal election that Tony would give us the medicine – even though we know it tastes bad. No more wishey washey policy. Get on with it already!
I usually can’t bear to even contemplate the Boltster but tonight is special!
@631,
Which bit of that is a comment and which bit is Bolt?
My observation in the LC thread: I suspect ALP can flip the 5th in NV (currently CA) in late counting.
Also, the ‘Other’ Sex in NM is perhaps not being appreciated.
If I’m right, it would be ALP + GRN 19, SEX 1, DLP 1, S&F 3.
LNP; GRN + S&F; GRN + SEX + DLP seem to be the options.
If GRN end up holding only 3 then also SEX + DLP + S&F.
Just turned on TV to start my viewing of missed election coverage, and Liverpool fans were singing “You’ll never walk alone” which is pretty emotional especially thinking about the 1989 tragedy.
But it reminded me of Labor’s most effective line – “Under the Liberals, you’re on your own”.
This is very powerful, particularly as the Bolts and Abbotts of this world chant this like a mantra, devotees of that Ayn Rand school of the “”strong man”. So it’s hard for them to get around this line – it really does define them and whoever thought it up at Labor HQ, brilliant!
I would use it in Queensland next year. It encapsulates the difference between Right Wing think tank types and normal people working with and caring for others perfectly.
633, if the greens only get three then the ALP will get two more.
Hopefully Labor doesn’t end up having to try and win the Shooters and Fishers over otherwise we can kiss Great Forests National Park goodbye, which would be an utter travesty.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/micro-parties-to-control-victorian-upper-house-with-shooters-party-likely-winners-20141129-11wx66.html
[The new Shooters Party MPs will be led by husband and wife team Jeff and Nicole Bourman, who live in Hampton but won seats in Eastern Victoria and Western Victoria respectively. Mr Bourman is a former policeman. ]
I know The Age is relying on unfinished counting here, but this definitely sounds ridiculous if it did turn out this way.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-30/grim-result-nationals-prediction-of-shepparton-loss/5928460
The beginning of the end for the Nationals?
BTW, The Age can kiss my sub goodbye with their editorial supportng Napthine.
Exsqueeze me – what dodgy slimeball lowlife spiv developer paid you off, Ho?
Its over. Saturday Paper will do me. How’s them apples, biatch?
@635, which would get them 16, no? So with they’d need 5 votes to pass.
If GRN flip WV5 and ALP flip NV5 then ALP + GRN + SEX = 21
If it comes to it, I’m sure that GRN & S&F will eventually pass a bill together (probably not on parks) and I hope the media don’t forget to have a field day.
[I dont think Andrews can roll over on E-W link. That would be indeed be saying: “I dont need any inner city seats, ever, give them ALL to the Greens” ]
I said it had been observed 😉
Speaking of other observations, that’s right isn’t it?
Previous Aus Greens lower house members in Tas, ACT and of course federally.
So that’s first Green in a state-level single member district?
Watching this recorded 9 coverage. That Boot thing is pathetic. Trivialising people who have served in Parliament and are now temporarily out of a job. Like the Shredder which I think they used before.
Not quite – Balmain was. I’d forgotten about that too.
At a normal general election. I think one won in NSW at a by election didn’t they?
Martin B @ 640 – how likely are those seats to be flipped though?
Ah yes, of course – so Jamie Parker has that honour.
RR – nope – Balmain flipped at 2011 election.
RR
I think they won Balmain at the 2011 state election.