10.12pm. The tide continues to go out on the Greens in Richmond, where the ABC computer now has Labor ahead (just).
9.30pm. Okay, got it to open now. Albert Park now being called for Labor, and quite comfortably at that. Frankston still down as Labor gain, unless Steve Bracks had better knowledge when he spoke earlier. There’s now a 2.0% swing to Labor in Ivanhoe, so that danger has passed. Nationals ahead in Morwell, so obviously that’s one we’ll keep tracking over the next few days. Richmond is, in fact, dead level – if that’s a trend, the Greens won’t win after all. Maybe there’s something in the idea that Labor will do better on pre-polls, maybe not. Either way, it’s staying on the watch list. Ripon now Liberal retain, so a good show by Labor but probably no cigar. The ABC computer says Liberal retain in South Barwon, but it’s on the basis of a very slender lead, so obviously it’s only just inside its error margin.
9.28pm. Been attending to a bit of dinner, and now I can’t get the ABC results page to open. But I understand it’s wound Richmond back from Greens gain to Greens ahead.
8.49pm. Steve Bracks now says Frankston is very tight. 12.7% of Frankstonians were sufficiently silly in the head to vote for Geoff Shaw, and these preferences are going hard to the Liberals, which the ABC computer probably didn’t see coming.
8.40pm. One thing I will say about Richmond is that Stephen Jolly (9.3%) is doing a lot better than the Sex Party (3.1%), which is presumably good news for the Greens.
8.36pm. Mary Wooldridge now sounding confident about Ripon — perhaps over-confident but clearly it’s close.
8.35pm. Confusion over Richmond now being acknowledged. Steve Bracks not calling it, but he doesn’t sound all that confident either. Labor have been creeping up in South Barwon – now dead level.
8.30pm. That narrow Labor lead in Ripon never went away. ABC calling it for Labor, but the Liberals might still hope for pre-polls.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Albert Park for Labor. I suggested on News Radio earlier there was still a worst case scenario for Labor where they only one 44 seats, but I’d say that dispatches of it.
8.25pm. Greens now ahead in Brunswick, but I don’t really get the Richmond numbers.
8.22pm. Back now, in case you’ve missed me. ABC computer still calling Richmond for the Greens, but there’s still only one booth on 2PP, the primary vote movements look pretty modest, and maybe Labor will be hopeful about pre-polls.
8.03pm. If you’re a fan of my dulcet tones, I’ll be on News Radio at 8.10. Posting activity has lightened because I’m stepping back and doing my homework.
7.59pm. ABC computer no longer calling South Barwon for Liberal – “LIB AHEAD”.
7.54pm. Prahran interesting: very tight for Labor and Greens to make second, whoever does it will ride home over Libs in preferences. Steve Bracks thinks pre-polls will decided it in Labor’s favour.
7.52pm. Okay, Labor-friendly primary votes are being recorded from Richmond, but they’re swinging big to Richmond. Too early to call, but closer than I indicated. Northcote a bridge too far for the Liberals though. Greens pretty much home in Melbourne. Tight in Brunswick, Labor slightly ahead.
7.50pm. Steve Bracks says he “believes” Labor will win Ripon, calls clean sweep of sandbelt with Prahran included, says Morwell can’t be counted out yet, sounds slightly dubious but still hopeful about Eildon, and calls the election for Labor.
7.49pm. ABC computer has Labor ahead in Ivanhoe now. Craig Langdon polling weakly at 2.5%, so the Liberals’ strength here is actually on their own back.
7.48pm. Greens looking very good in Melbourne though.
7.46pm. Getting very mixed signals on Richmond, which I believe Antony just said was one of two seats where the computer has them ahead. I wonder if he might have had that wrong, or whether I heard wrong. With three booths counted, Greens on only 21.9% of primary vote: with 2600 counted on 2PP, 5.5% swing to Labor.
7.45pm. Labor on track to win Prahran, says Antony. The computer is calling it for them.
7.44pm. Antony turns on his prediction software: Labor definitely 45, which means Labor definitely wins.
7.43pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed almost level with Nationals in Shepparton on primary vote with 40.3% counted. Unless there’s some regional peculiarity brewing, she should win comfortably.
7.42pm. Right down to the wire in Eildon and Ripon.
7.41pm. Much less good for the Greens though in Richmond.
7.40pm. Another latte belt update. The ABC computer is calling Melbourne for the Greens, and contrary to what I said just now, with nose in front in Northcote. I suspect that projecting Labor-versus-Greens is harder than Labor-versus-Liberal though.
7.38pm. Now over 30% counted in Ripon, Labor still with its nose in front.
7.37pm. Steve Bracks reckons Labor ahead in Morwell, which is not what the ABC computer was saying last I’ve looked, and the Nats are under pressure from an independent in Shepparton.
7.36pm. Mary Wooldridge still thinking the Liberals are ahead in Ivanhoe. She’s talking up the swing to the Libs in Narre Warren North, but clearly it won’t cost them the seat, so it sounds like grasping at straws.
7.33pm. ABC computer calling Bentleigh for Labor: 16.1% counted, 3.0% swing to Labor, 0.9% Liberal margin.
7.31pm. Glenn Druery tweets: “On these very, very early numbers minor parties are being elected in the Upper House.. hehehehe.”
7.30pm. Sky News calls the election for Labor, whatever that means exactly.
7.29pm. Labor not home yet in Cranbourne: 16.9% counted, 0.2% swing to Liberal, 1.1% Labor margin. Antony noting consistent 3-4% swings, entirely in line with that poll trend.
7.27pm. ABC computer calls Yan Yean for Labor.
7.25pm. Good early result from the Liberals for Ivanhoe, which they need. Labor “on the cusp of victory” says Antony, summarising situation well.
7.24pm. ABC computer calls South Barwon and Gembrook for Liberal, so certainly not a complete bloodbath.
7.23pm. Ripon likely Labor gain, says ABC computer. The Libs would want to have bagged that one by now — 16.6% counted. But observe my earlier note of caution about Ripon, as earlier reporting booths will be the Swan Hill ones where Nationals are losing sitting member.
7.18pm. ABC TV has more up to date figures from Frankston, with 5.7% counted. This is from the Liberal end of the seat (i.e. the south), and there’s a 6.0% swing to Labor. Maybe the rest of the electorate will behave differently though.
7.16pm. Sandbelt update: Steve Bracks says 2% swing to Labor in Carrum – very tight. ABC numbers from Bentleigh trailing behind what James Campbell is hearing, probably close there but maybe with Labor with nose in front. Labor looking like taking Mordialloc. But next to nothing from Frankston.
7.16pm. Liberals actually not out of the woods in Eildon, but more likely to win than not.
7.15pm. Labor to hold Monbulk, barring big late reversal.
7.14pm. ABC computer calls Bellarine for Labor.
7.13pm. Antony pours cold water on Eildon. Data entry error, by the sounds.
7.12pm. Antony making troubling noises for Coalition: seven or so Labor gains, precisely in line with those poll tracking projections. Mary Wooldridge sounding grim. Steve Bracks says 6% swing to Labor in Bellarine, which they need.
7.10pm. James Campbell of Herald-Sun tweets four booths in Bentleigh are all swinging to Labor, though not by much.
7.09pm. ABC computer very interestingly calls Eildon for Labor with 10.8% swing, although with only 7.7% counted I’d keep that on watch status. Bendigo East and Wendouree called for Labor.
7.07pm. Double-digit swing in Malvern with over 20% counted. Possibly part of a broad trend of these areas getting less blue, without putting the Liberals in any danger.
7.05pm. Over 10% counted in Morwell, 4.6% swing to Labor, but Nationals to hold.
7.01pm. Okay, first numbers from the sandbelt. Mordialloc: two booths with 4.7% counted, big 7.5% swing to Labor. This is the Labor-voting end of the electorate, but still, a big swing’s a big swing.
7.00pm. Mary Wooldridge is also hearing of a swing to Labor in the other Ballarat seat of Wendouree. Big swing to Labor in Benambra, so maybe Bill Tilley hasn’t made himself popular. He’s still safe though.
6.59pm. ABC calls Euroa for the Nationals, in case there was any notion the Liberals might win there.
6.58pm. ABC computer apparently calling Buninyong for Labor, with 5.5% swing.
6.57pm. 7.3% counted in Burwood, 2.6% swing to Labor. The Liberals were getting a bit worried about that one late in the campaign. Jeff Kennett’s old seat, which Labor held from the 1999 by-election after Kennett quit until 2010. Not a must-win seat though by any means.
6.55pm. A solid 6.2% counted in Bundoora, very little swing.
6.54pm. ABC computer calling Macedon for Labor with 5.1% swing in their favour, off their existing margin of 2.3%.
6.49pm. Only 1.8% counted in Ripon, but still, a 2.3% swing to Labor. But we’re probably talking the northern end of the electorate that was formerly in Swan Hill, where the Nationals are losing the personal vote of a sitting member. Things could well swing around when we get bigger booths at the southern end, where it’s Labor who are losing the sitting member. In Yan Yean, first booth swings big to Labor, but only 0.5% counted.
6.47pm. Really big Liberal swing in Polwarth with 5.3% counted.
6.46pm. The ABC projects the first booth from Ripon as a 10.5% swing to the Liberals.
6.42pm. Steve Bracks on ABC reckons 3% swing to Labor in Eltham and 7% swing in Narre Warren North, which would be great news for them – but Mary Wooldridge says she’s seeing the opposite from the latter. She also relates a 1.4% swing on early figures from Ripon, which is less than they would be hoping for.
6.40pm. Big swing to Labor in first small booth in Nepean, so swings and roundabouts at this stage.
6.39pm. Now up to 4.1% counted in Hawthorn, 1.8% swing to the Liberals, which is very mildly encouraging for them.
6.36pm. Antony relates the Nationals are well ahead in Euroa, where the Liberals have annoyed them by fielding a candidate. Maybe the Liberals well do better when bigger centres come in. Small swing to the Liberals in Buninyong, but a tiny rural booth – this one will be decided in bigger Ballarat booths.
6.33pm. Status quo result in the first Hawthorn booth. Big swing to Labor in Lowan, reflecting Hugh Delahunty’s retirement, but still safe Nationals. Swing to the Liberals in Polwarth. Nothing of real interest though.
6.30pm. Single booths trickling in from various electorates around the place, but Macedon still the only one that’s marginal.
6.27pm. Antony on TV says tiny first booth in Macedon has a 0.5% swing to Labor, which they hold by 2.3%.
6.22pm. Antony Green tweets that that Mildura projection is based on 90 votes. Still reckon you can take that one to the bank.
6.15pm. A booth from Mildura is in, and it’s enough for the ABC computer to call it for the Nationals. A foregone conclusion of course, but there it is.
6pm. Welcome to my live blogging of the Victorian election count, for which polls have just closed. The very first results should start trickling in in about half an hour. Known knowns:
• As I type, a Newspoll exit poll should be going to air. I don’t believe the record of Newspoll exit polling has been all that special, but maybe they’ve improved. In any event, watch this space. UPDATE: Newspoll keeps it simple by concurring with Galaxy in having it at 51-49 to Labor.
• A Galaxy exit poll conducted at polling booths today has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. But a similar exercise conducted at pre-poll booths found Labor leading 52.5-47.5. Since maybe a bit over 70% of voters are likely to be cast today (meaning ordinary votes plus absent votes) and nearly 20% cast at pre-polls, and the rest should consist of postals which will be more favourable to the Liberals, this suggests to me that the current BludgerTrack reading is maybe half a point too favourable to Labor, although that’s well within any plausible error margin. So stay tuned, in other words.
• Unlike at federal elections, pre-poll votes will not be counted this evening. So if it’s close, expect tonight’s proceedings to be inconclusive. If so, the VEC will swing into action counting pre-poll votes, as they did in 2010 to resolve the crucial seat of Bentleigh.
• Labor are crying foul that the Greens are not directing preferences in a whole swathe of very important seats, namely Bellarine, Bentleigh, Buninyong, Carrum, Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Ringwood, South Barwon, Wendouree and Yan Yean – and apparently the Liberals issued an open ticket in Melbourne, which gives Labor good cause to feel suspicious about a possible deal between them.
548
SPC Ardmona.
Also the Country Alliance out polled the ALP last time, so there was some dissatisfaction with the Nationals there.
bemused – as I said – a pessimist. the day before the 2010 State election I was very pessimistic about Labor on this blog when nearly everyone else (including bookmakers) was sure Labor would win. I was very sad that I was right.
We ARE your friends Bemused.
Go count the number of new government bench members who got home on GRN prefs.
This whole ALP-GRN stoush shit is a Murdoch/ LNP counter insurgency operations. Dont fall for it comrade.
Rocket Rocket@552
So what is the pessimism based on?
Congratulations to the Labor strategists who ran the campaign. Now on to Queensland – people will now believe it is possible to tip out not just Newman (who is certainly gone in Ashgrove) but the whole LNP.
bemused@554
I suppose I am fatalistic and I just form expectations based on the best evidence and then just accept what happens.
Anyway, off to bed now, been a long day.
I wasn’t pessimistic this time – I expected the Coalition to lose. Felt Labor would probably win in their own right something like 46-42 but was worried that a few Greens in the mix might mess things up.
Interestingly I have a relative who has now supported the winner in every Vic election since 1982. Only time they didn’t was their first in 1979 – and funnily enough they are much stronger supporter of Labor federally.
lefty e @ 553 – there are no friends in politics. Besides, Labor and the Greens are rivals. They compete for the same voters. If and when the Greens starting targeting Liberal seats, Labor will always have a slightly kamikaze attitude to the Greens.
So now the demons of 1955 are exorcised!
Instead we can reflect on
http://news.google.com.au/newspapers?nid=MDQ-9Oe3GGUC&dat=19521208&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
http://news.google.com.au/newspapers?nid=MDQ-9Oe3GGUC&dat=19820405&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
no pics for 1999
That should say if and until the Greens start targeting Liberal seats…
[That should say if and until the Greens start targeting Liberal seats…]
I don’t know about in Victoria but there’s a market for Greens in SA amongst Adelaide Hills voters (a lot of conservationist types who lean Liberal more based on their pocket, than any social considerations.)
I don’t know if such a niche exists in Victoria (my knowledge of the state’s political structure is not that great, TBH)
560, what like Prahran?
Cary
The Greens cracked 20% in Hawthorn and did beat the ALP across Toorak, Kooyong and many other similar booths.
I do think the Greens need to look more closely at the Eastern suburbs rather than just the northern suburbs.
Time is coming that the GRNs will indeed threaten certain ‘wet’ liberal seats. Such that they are – maybe one in each state.
But for now its the ALP left in the inner city.
areaman
Prahran is not really a Liberal seat on these boundaries, its a seat they do win on good nights for them but once you move away from the Toorak Road end of the seat into the Prahran, Windsor and St Kilda East areas then it isn’t Liberal turf
It’s as much a liberal seat as it is anyone else’s, certainly it’s not a Labor seat either.
lefty e
The current Hawthorn is difficult for the Greens as it includes Camberwell, Glen Iris and Canterbury, which are somewhat hostile to the Greens.
One could argue that Boorindara should be redrawn with Hawthorn & Kew in one seat and Camberwell & Balwyn in another seat.
Prahran is the VIC exemplar par excellence of what I mean by ‘wet’ liberal.
areaman – Prahran is not a natural Liberal seat by any stretch of the imagination. It was once, but no longer – don’t forget that Labor held it from 1999 to 2010. I was talking about seats like Caulfield, Hawthorn, maybe even Kew.
lefty e – parts of Prahran are ‘wet’ liberal (looking at you South Yarra) but to describe the whole seat that way is at best inaccurate.
Interesting to see how many seats Labor won off Green preferences – as per usual
Looks like the Greens will just get the one although Prahran has to be a small chance to increase that to two – either way great to get a breakthrough and win a lower house seat
Will be very interesting when the Liberals work out that they will hurt Labor more by preferences the Greens and reducing Labor’s numbers. They could’ve forced Labor into a power sharing government with the Greens this time around and, if they couldn’t make a go of it, been back in power in 4 years
Either way, winning Melbounre will open the door to more seats in the future
Congrats Dan – I hope he delivers and keeps the right of the party in check
We could argue that Prahran/Windosr and St Kilda should be in one seat and South Yarra/Toorak and South Melbourne be in another seat
I wonder how the Newscorpse turd polishers will spin this loss.
They may well say the loss is due in part to the shambles that is the Federal fibs at the moment.
But my concern is come next March when it is highly likely that Baird will claim a thumping victory then the Newscorpse criminals will spin it in a way that the result is due to Abbott turning things around after the summer break.
South Yarra, for such a small suburb is very diverse, the Toorak part is expensive, walk a few hundred meters and you come across the public housing units.
mexicanbeemer – Kew and Hawthorn (the suburbs) do seem to be undergoing a demographic change that makes them friendlier to Labor/Greens.
[I wonder how the Newscorpse turd polishers will spin this loss.]
“It’s just Victoria! NSW will be the true test of Abbott’s popularity!”
Hi All.
I saved my first post for this auspicious occasion after reading the blog with great interest on and off over the past 12 months or so.
Congratulations to Tony Abbott on a wonderful election result for the good peoples of Victoria!
Of course being a modest and thoughtful man I am sure he will share the credit as much as possible.
Tonight I sleep with a smile and dream of a similar outcome for Can Do.
Sachin lara @ 573 – while Baird probably won’t lose, there will be an inevitable corrective swing back to Labor just by virtue of the enormous swing to the Libs in 2011. It won’t be able to be spun as a “thumping victory”.
Yep! its only so long before the Tories work out that preffing GRNs, and creating a suite of ALP-GRN govts will actually benefit them more.
the figures for the prahran booth i scrutineering, traditionally Labor
turnout 1006
Liberal 345
ALP 264
Green 294
Declared TPP result
Liberal 381
ALP 564
this result was repeated thru all booths
Senate above the line
Lib 297
ALP 225
Green 227
With 49.5% of the vote counted Prahran hinges on prepoll – but Labor has not won, it wll be Liberal or Green. Liberals worked exceedly well on the prepoll booth
I would argue South Melbourne still has a Labor tinge or dare I suggest a tinge of Green
575, which means by the time their competitive for the greens they’ll also be competitive for the ALP, and hence not “liberal seats” any more. I don’t think it realistic to expect a left wing party to ever be competitive against a centre right party somewhere the the larger centre left party isn’t competitive as well.
“doctors wives” (sic) who would vote for the greens but not for ALP just don’t exist in any real numbers.
Jimmy
I don’t think Hawthorn or Kew are necessarily changing but the current Liberal Party has drifted to the right on so many issues and often they openly dismiss the institutions which have traditionally been at the heart of the Liberal Party such as cultural institutions.
One thing which is fast changing is the cultural make-up of the area, it is now home to an increasing Asian population both south eastern Asians but also Indians and something which will put the fear of god into the Tony’s of the world, it even has a small Muslim population although they are mostly students.
Billie
Yes but on the primary vote the Liberals have pretty much won every booth at the northern end of Albert Park, I’m looking forward to taking a look at the TPP across those booths.
areaman
Typical green response, the Greens have cracked 20% for what I believe would be the first time, there is no real chance of the ALP winning a Hawthorn or Kew but if the Greens were a bit more open minded and were willing to widen their policy approach then they are not far off coming second in many eastern suburban seats.
The Greens have beaten the ALP on primaries in several very up-market booths, okay the Liberals won them easily but the Greens seem either afraid of the eastern suburbs or anything which doesn’t fit nicely into selective policies.
areaman @ 581 – which just proves my point that Labor and Greens compete for same voters and thus are rivals not friends.
mexicanbeemer @ 584 – I don’ think they’re afraid, I think they just know that their best shot is left voters in Labor seats. But as you say, until they try, who knows how the (somewhat mythical) ‘wet’lib voters would respond to a concerted Greens campaign.
[areaman @ 581 – which just proves my point that Labor and Greens compete for same voters and thus are rivals not friends.]
True – until the inner cities are natural and permanent GRN heartlands, which isnt far off. Probably only the retirement of ALP Left sitting mmebers stands in the way.
Then we’ll be friends on regional comparative advantage grounds – much like the Libs and Nats
You heard it here first. 🙂
lefty e – LOL you’re lucky some of the more… ‘sprited’ anti-Green PBers aren’t around to hear you say that 😛
If the ALP was willing to change their policies I’m sure they’d be more competitive there too, but at that point any party could be competitive anywhere if only they were willing to change what the believed.
I see the ABC computer has scaled Melbourne back from “Greens gain” to “Greens ahead”. Their raw lead is 1.2%.
mexicanbeemer @ 583 – you’d probably know better than I.
586 with the difference being that the greens have repeated shown they’re willing to back the ALP to form government which the coalition obviously isn’t.
areaman
Seats like Hawthorn / Malvern / Caulfield just like Pascoe Vale / Footscray / Altona are shaped by traditional class world view so there really is no scope for the ALP to win them just as the Liberals find it close to impossible to win seats in Melbourne west and north.
Thats right bludgers: the ALP-GRNs competition phase will end sooner than people think.
It will end with GRN victories in the inner cities – these are inevitable, so dont get upset about it.Work with the new realities.
Once we arent tussling over individual seats youll find the relationship improves.
And more: if you arent in favour of the relationship improving, youll find you have no long term career,in either party.
Sorry to break that news to some folk. But your use-by date is coming fast.
areaman @ 590 – what you say is true but as Labor is a party of government that are somewhat more limited in scope in how they can shift on policy. Having said that I’d be the first to say that Labor’s past embrace of the policies of neo-liberalism must be disavowed and Labor must attempt to undo what can be undone and ameliorate what cannot. Labor also must reform itself into more democratic party so that members do not feel marginalised. I do not begrudge the Greens their success at all, and I’d be the first to say that Labor does not ‘own’ the left vote, but the Greens should not expect Labor to sit idly by as they poach votes, electoral funds and seats in parliament, and then be happy to call the Greens their ‘friends’.
594 except the evidence doesn’t back that up. The swing to the ALP in Malvern & Caulfield was much greater than than the swing to the greens, even when calculated as a percentage of their base vote.
Hawthorn did swing to the greens harder, but not by an amount that would take it from a liberal to a green seat without being a three way contest like prahran first.
areaman – and so what are you saying? That Labor shouldn’t dislike the Greens because seats ‘must’ go through Labor before they go Green? The Greens are a staunchly middle class party – their stance on Abbott’s PPLS demonstrates this. The Greens have great opportunities in middle class Liberal seats, but would rather target Labor seats. Hence the enmity from Labor.
596 Then the ALP needs get their own leftwing house in order before trying to slag the greens. I was an ALP member for over ten years, and I’d probably still vote labor if they didn’t stack out my progressive electorate with rightwing wastes of space like Fiona Richardson and David Feeney.
My reply to this comment in the Daily Smelly,