10.12pm. The tide continues to go out on the Greens in Richmond, where the ABC computer now has Labor ahead (just).
9.30pm. Okay, got it to open now. Albert Park now being called for Labor, and quite comfortably at that. Frankston still down as Labor gain, unless Steve Bracks had better knowledge when he spoke earlier. There’s now a 2.0% swing to Labor in Ivanhoe, so that danger has passed. Nationals ahead in Morwell, so obviously that’s one we’ll keep tracking over the next few days. Richmond is, in fact, dead level – if that’s a trend, the Greens won’t win after all. Maybe there’s something in the idea that Labor will do better on pre-polls, maybe not. Either way, it’s staying on the watch list. Ripon now Liberal retain, so a good show by Labor but probably no cigar. The ABC computer says Liberal retain in South Barwon, but it’s on the basis of a very slender lead, so obviously it’s only just inside its error margin.
9.28pm. Been attending to a bit of dinner, and now I can’t get the ABC results page to open. But I understand it’s wound Richmond back from Greens gain to Greens ahead.
8.49pm. Steve Bracks now says Frankston is very tight. 12.7% of Frankstonians were sufficiently silly in the head to vote for Geoff Shaw, and these preferences are going hard to the Liberals, which the ABC computer probably didn’t see coming.
8.40pm. One thing I will say about Richmond is that Stephen Jolly (9.3%) is doing a lot better than the Sex Party (3.1%), which is presumably good news for the Greens.
8.36pm. Mary Wooldridge now sounding confident about Ripon — perhaps over-confident but clearly it’s close.
8.35pm. Confusion over Richmond now being acknowledged. Steve Bracks not calling it, but he doesn’t sound all that confident either. Labor have been creeping up in South Barwon – now dead level.
8.30pm. That narrow Labor lead in Ripon never went away. ABC calling it for Labor, but the Liberals might still hope for pre-polls.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Albert Park for Labor. I suggested on News Radio earlier there was still a worst case scenario for Labor where they only one 44 seats, but I’d say that dispatches of it.
8.25pm. Greens now ahead in Brunswick, but I don’t really get the Richmond numbers.
8.22pm. Back now, in case you’ve missed me. ABC computer still calling Richmond for the Greens, but there’s still only one booth on 2PP, the primary vote movements look pretty modest, and maybe Labor will be hopeful about pre-polls.
8.03pm. If you’re a fan of my dulcet tones, I’ll be on News Radio at 8.10. Posting activity has lightened because I’m stepping back and doing my homework.
7.59pm. ABC computer no longer calling South Barwon for Liberal – “LIB AHEAD”.
7.54pm. Prahran interesting: very tight for Labor and Greens to make second, whoever does it will ride home over Libs in preferences. Steve Bracks thinks pre-polls will decided it in Labor’s favour.
7.52pm. Okay, Labor-friendly primary votes are being recorded from Richmond, but they’re swinging big to Richmond. Too early to call, but closer than I indicated. Northcote a bridge too far for the Liberals though. Greens pretty much home in Melbourne. Tight in Brunswick, Labor slightly ahead.
7.50pm. Steve Bracks says he “believes” Labor will win Ripon, calls clean sweep of sandbelt with Prahran included, says Morwell can’t be counted out yet, sounds slightly dubious but still hopeful about Eildon, and calls the election for Labor.
7.49pm. ABC computer has Labor ahead in Ivanhoe now. Craig Langdon polling weakly at 2.5%, so the Liberals’ strength here is actually on their own back.
7.48pm. Greens looking very good in Melbourne though.
7.46pm. Getting very mixed signals on Richmond, which I believe Antony just said was one of two seats where the computer has them ahead. I wonder if he might have had that wrong, or whether I heard wrong. With three booths counted, Greens on only 21.9% of primary vote: with 2600 counted on 2PP, 5.5% swing to Labor.
7.45pm. Labor on track to win Prahran, says Antony. The computer is calling it for them.
7.44pm. Antony turns on his prediction software: Labor definitely 45, which means Labor definitely wins.
7.43pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed almost level with Nationals in Shepparton on primary vote with 40.3% counted. Unless there’s some regional peculiarity brewing, she should win comfortably.
7.42pm. Right down to the wire in Eildon and Ripon.
7.41pm. Much less good for the Greens though in Richmond.
7.40pm. Another latte belt update. The ABC computer is calling Melbourne for the Greens, and contrary to what I said just now, with nose in front in Northcote. I suspect that projecting Labor-versus-Greens is harder than Labor-versus-Liberal though.
7.38pm. Now over 30% counted in Ripon, Labor still with its nose in front.
7.37pm. Steve Bracks reckons Labor ahead in Morwell, which is not what the ABC computer was saying last I’ve looked, and the Nats are under pressure from an independent in Shepparton.
7.36pm. Mary Wooldridge still thinking the Liberals are ahead in Ivanhoe. She’s talking up the swing to the Libs in Narre Warren North, but clearly it won’t cost them the seat, so it sounds like grasping at straws.
7.33pm. ABC computer calling Bentleigh for Labor: 16.1% counted, 3.0% swing to Labor, 0.9% Liberal margin.
7.31pm. Glenn Druery tweets: “On these very, very early numbers minor parties are being elected in the Upper House.. hehehehe.”
7.30pm. Sky News calls the election for Labor, whatever that means exactly.
7.29pm. Labor not home yet in Cranbourne: 16.9% counted, 0.2% swing to Liberal, 1.1% Labor margin. Antony noting consistent 3-4% swings, entirely in line with that poll trend.
7.27pm. ABC computer calls Yan Yean for Labor.
7.25pm. Good early result from the Liberals for Ivanhoe, which they need. Labor “on the cusp of victory” says Antony, summarising situation well.
7.24pm. ABC computer calls South Barwon and Gembrook for Liberal, so certainly not a complete bloodbath.
7.23pm. Ripon likely Labor gain, says ABC computer. The Libs would want to have bagged that one by now — 16.6% counted. But observe my earlier note of caution about Ripon, as earlier reporting booths will be the Swan Hill ones where Nationals are losing sitting member.
7.18pm. ABC TV has more up to date figures from Frankston, with 5.7% counted. This is from the Liberal end of the seat (i.e. the south), and there’s a 6.0% swing to Labor. Maybe the rest of the electorate will behave differently though.
7.16pm. Sandbelt update: Steve Bracks says 2% swing to Labor in Carrum – very tight. ABC numbers from Bentleigh trailing behind what James Campbell is hearing, probably close there but maybe with Labor with nose in front. Labor looking like taking Mordialloc. But next to nothing from Frankston.
7.16pm. Liberals actually not out of the woods in Eildon, but more likely to win than not.
7.15pm. Labor to hold Monbulk, barring big late reversal.
7.14pm. ABC computer calls Bellarine for Labor.
7.13pm. Antony pours cold water on Eildon. Data entry error, by the sounds.
7.12pm. Antony making troubling noises for Coalition: seven or so Labor gains, precisely in line with those poll tracking projections. Mary Wooldridge sounding grim. Steve Bracks says 6% swing to Labor in Bellarine, which they need.
7.10pm. James Campbell of Herald-Sun tweets four booths in Bentleigh are all swinging to Labor, though not by much.
7.09pm. ABC computer very interestingly calls Eildon for Labor with 10.8% swing, although with only 7.7% counted I’d keep that on watch status. Bendigo East and Wendouree called for Labor.
7.07pm. Double-digit swing in Malvern with over 20% counted. Possibly part of a broad trend of these areas getting less blue, without putting the Liberals in any danger.
7.05pm. Over 10% counted in Morwell, 4.6% swing to Labor, but Nationals to hold.
7.01pm. Okay, first numbers from the sandbelt. Mordialloc: two booths with 4.7% counted, big 7.5% swing to Labor. This is the Labor-voting end of the electorate, but still, a big swing’s a big swing.
7.00pm. Mary Wooldridge is also hearing of a swing to Labor in the other Ballarat seat of Wendouree. Big swing to Labor in Benambra, so maybe Bill Tilley hasn’t made himself popular. He’s still safe though.
6.59pm. ABC calls Euroa for the Nationals, in case there was any notion the Liberals might win there.
6.58pm. ABC computer apparently calling Buninyong for Labor, with 5.5% swing.
6.57pm. 7.3% counted in Burwood, 2.6% swing to Labor. The Liberals were getting a bit worried about that one late in the campaign. Jeff Kennett’s old seat, which Labor held from the 1999 by-election after Kennett quit until 2010. Not a must-win seat though by any means.
6.55pm. A solid 6.2% counted in Bundoora, very little swing.
6.54pm. ABC computer calling Macedon for Labor with 5.1% swing in their favour, off their existing margin of 2.3%.
6.49pm. Only 1.8% counted in Ripon, but still, a 2.3% swing to Labor. But we’re probably talking the northern end of the electorate that was formerly in Swan Hill, where the Nationals are losing the personal vote of a sitting member. Things could well swing around when we get bigger booths at the southern end, where it’s Labor who are losing the sitting member. In Yan Yean, first booth swings big to Labor, but only 0.5% counted.
6.47pm. Really big Liberal swing in Polwarth with 5.3% counted.
6.46pm. The ABC projects the first booth from Ripon as a 10.5% swing to the Liberals.
6.42pm. Steve Bracks on ABC reckons 3% swing to Labor in Eltham and 7% swing in Narre Warren North, which would be great news for them – but Mary Wooldridge says she’s seeing the opposite from the latter. She also relates a 1.4% swing on early figures from Ripon, which is less than they would be hoping for.
6.40pm. Big swing to Labor in first small booth in Nepean, so swings and roundabouts at this stage.
6.39pm. Now up to 4.1% counted in Hawthorn, 1.8% swing to the Liberals, which is very mildly encouraging for them.
6.36pm. Antony relates the Nationals are well ahead in Euroa, where the Liberals have annoyed them by fielding a candidate. Maybe the Liberals well do better when bigger centres come in. Small swing to the Liberals in Buninyong, but a tiny rural booth – this one will be decided in bigger Ballarat booths.
6.33pm. Status quo result in the first Hawthorn booth. Big swing to Labor in Lowan, reflecting Hugh Delahunty’s retirement, but still safe Nationals. Swing to the Liberals in Polwarth. Nothing of real interest though.
6.30pm. Single booths trickling in from various electorates around the place, but Macedon still the only one that’s marginal.
6.27pm. Antony on TV says tiny first booth in Macedon has a 0.5% swing to Labor, which they hold by 2.3%.
6.22pm. Antony Green tweets that that Mildura projection is based on 90 votes. Still reckon you can take that one to the bank.
6.15pm. A booth from Mildura is in, and it’s enough for the ABC computer to call it for the Nationals. A foregone conclusion of course, but there it is.
6pm. Welcome to my live blogging of the Victorian election count, for which polls have just closed. The very first results should start trickling in in about half an hour. Known knowns:
• As I type, a Newspoll exit poll should be going to air. I don’t believe the record of Newspoll exit polling has been all that special, but maybe they’ve improved. In any event, watch this space. UPDATE: Newspoll keeps it simple by concurring with Galaxy in having it at 51-49 to Labor.
• A Galaxy exit poll conducted at polling booths today has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. But a similar exercise conducted at pre-poll booths found Labor leading 52.5-47.5. Since maybe a bit over 70% of voters are likely to be cast today (meaning ordinary votes plus absent votes) and nearly 20% cast at pre-polls, and the rest should consist of postals which will be more favourable to the Liberals, this suggests to me that the current BludgerTrack reading is maybe half a point too favourable to Labor, although that’s well within any plausible error margin. So stay tuned, in other words.
• Unlike at federal elections, pre-poll votes will not be counted this evening. So if it’s close, expect tonight’s proceedings to be inconclusive. If so, the VEC will swing into action counting pre-poll votes, as they did in 2010 to resolve the crucial seat of Bentleigh.
• Labor are crying foul that the Greens are not directing preferences in a whole swathe of very important seats, namely Bellarine, Bentleigh, Buninyong, Carrum, Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Ringwood, South Barwon, Wendouree and Yan Yean – and apparently the Liberals issued an open ticket in Melbourne, which gives Labor good cause to feel suspicious about a possible deal between them.
confessions – I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that they’re simply crazy. They think the voters are just wrong and that if their messages and policies aren’t translating into votes, then they just need to yell a bit louder or change the words around.
This leaves 16 Coalition and 13 Labor. A tricky upper house, if that’s so.
I am just reading that Abbott is backing down on soldiers’ pay. Of all the public servants you wouldn’t believe he would lay the boot into. Jacquie Lambie will be saying “S@#t Happens” am I right
d-money
That makes fools of Ciobo and Johnston who have been toeing the Party line on the ADF pay reflecting the budget and deficit disaster.
d-money, not surprised, re Abbott and soldier’s pay, of all the barnacles that is the easiest to fix and it might get them another Senate vote.
They will still screw the public servants.
Probably they might give them a base pay rise matching CPI, but cut the other benefits.
OK, we have seen the Clark Kent glasses. Now for…
Isn’t it a little early to be reading anything conclusive into the results being thrown up by the Legislative Council calculator?
Seems the upper house in Vic might be a bit of dog’s breakfast.
Green having a well deserved rant about the current electoral system.
Boerwar I saw those comments mid week by Ciobo and Johnston.
I think for Abbott, blowing away a couple of his colleagues is small beer.
Green’s just gone berserk
D-money
The problem the coalition has with Abbott is that their entire method of “selling” Abbott is around his action-man head-kicker persona. Bike rides, speedos at the beech, shirt-fronting, constant attacks on union evil and opponents – it is all he knows. It is also the only Abbott they have ever attempted to sell to the electorate.
How do they even begin to construct a public image of Abbott as a statesman, negotiator or influencer? They had the perfect opportunity at the G20 and he plainly couldn’t do it. Tone was too busy threatening major world leaders, who quickly put our little boy back in his box.
In many ways, Abbot has never really grown out of his uni student bully approach to politics, It has always been about gaining and using power for him. He has never displayed an ability to persuade people to give him their support. That is why Gillard got the support of three out of four independents and Abbott stayed in opposition in 2010.
If it hadn’t been for the whole Rudd Gillard mess, Tony Abbott would never have become prime minister. Night all.
Antony lets rip about Upper House voting systems.
Freudian slip from Antony Green: “Labor’s had quite an infusion of new talent – new members.”
JD:
Perhaps it’s just that they’ve supped deeply from the Howard Kool Aid? I’m not in Victoria, so have no understanding of his background, but Andrews appears so far from the stereotypical union thug it isn’t funny.
What were the Liberals thinking?
Sir Mad Cyril@512
I would have used a harsher word than “flogged”.
If either major party stands in the way of Senate reform then the Australian people should put it out of office for 50 years.
It never seems to be clearly enunciated that a key role of taxes is to use profit generation to ensure worthy servants of the people are not excluded from the general climb to higher incomes. Noone has been queuing up to legislate against corporate pay rises, using the money that could otherwise go to revenue. [I know, reds under beds and all that]
Where is the narrative that says; “We need to be efficent in our government services, but not at the expense of screwing the employees and their families”
[514
confessions
What were the Liberals thinking?]
I think it’s pretty clear they aren’t.
Bracks: Labor is the natural party of govt in Victoria.
Kevin
I think Antony self corrected himself 🙂 he was going to go the whole hog.
3 shooter and fisher party upper house members wtf!
Gary Sparrow:
Good to see you again. Are you still in Canberra, or have you returned to Melbourne?
Still in the Berra confess.
But am looking at a return in a few years.
good result 🙂
Next week – last week of Federal parliament, and a Newspoll.
night all.
[518
Confessions
Bracks: Labor is the natural party of govt in Victoria.]
Yes, that mantle seems to have shifted from NSW to Victoria. When in doubt, Victoria now votes Labor.
GS:
I hope things are going well for you even if your return home is delayed a few years. 🙂
I’ve got a post up on the Legislative Council result. Another post on tight results in the lower house to follow shortly.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/11/29/late-counting-legislative-council/
Good evening everyone – looks like I missed everything at evening function. Bad timing. School wifi not working. Used daughter’s phone for some updates and got regular SMSs from various members of my family.
I am pretty amazed that Labor has got a solid majority in their own right despite Greens winning a few seats.
Also hope Independent gets up in Shepp, where we lived at one stage. These sort of seats only ever get noticed if they vote Independents in over the Nats/Libs.
Antony Green is floating my boat #justsaying
Now massive catchup – left TV recording so I can relive what I missed. Lots of people I talked to tonight said how subdued the whole atmosphere was at polling booths. Maybe Phil Hughes’ death has just numbed lots of people.
Socrates 511
Agreed
No nuance
Nothing but raw {ab}use of power
Always all about him and his heroism
{and saying “Aaah” quite a lot}
There was something Whitlamesque about Andrews’ turn of phrase tonight.
Rocket Rocket@526
Greens won a few seats?
Seems like few = 1.
What evidence was there to point to other than a comfortable Labor majority? The polls all pointed to it. Did you get our the Ouija board or something?
roger bottomley@530
I think Andrews has the makings of a great Premier.
I was surprised when he got the leadership gig, but he has grown into it and now seems to radiate calm reassurance.
Just what we need.
bemused @ 531 – while the Greens can be happy about winning Melbourne, the fact that Labor held on in Brunswick, Richmond and Northcote, as well as winning Prahran(!) shows that Labor still has an equally strong voice for progressive values (and I would argue it’s a better one).
sorry, Bemused @ 532
lol nope I was right the first time *rolls eyes at self*
If anyone is remotely interested, I am just back from the Mount Waverley post election party.
Our candidate Jennifer Yang was a real champion and worked very hard, but it was a tall order to win it.
There are a lot of pre-polls and postals outstanding, but I can’t see them making up the difference.
Bemused @ 532 – yeah, rather than the soaring rhetoric of Rudd, I think Andrew’s understated style is a huge strength, as Shorten is showing at the federal level.
In the Legislative Council, if the ALP plus Greens do not get a majority, particularly if ALP plus micro party also do not get a majority, and the ALP polls well then an early election, on the grounds of blocked legislation could be a possibility.
JimmyDoyle@537
Yep, Dan could be there for a long time rather than a short, spectacular period of Govt.
BTW, I enjoy your posts Jimmy, you are a welcome addition to PB.
533
We probably shall have to wait on the Prahran preference distribution for the result.
Tom the first and best@538
How does that work with a fixed term?
Wonderful concession speech by Napthine. Calls voters stupid ingrates for dumping his government.
bemused – thanks 🙂
Well bludger, Im not on ot piss in my own pocket. But my record on calling VIC elections continues.
Let the record show that like the Brumby defeat of 2010,I called this one 6 months out,
OK,I didnt see the Shepparaton result coming, but othe than that, I did pretty well on details too.
FIRST: Congrats to the VIC ALP: several of my GRN friends dont agree with me, but I think Andrews ran a very good campaign. I knew Napthine et al would stink, but I hadnt actually expected the VIC ALP to be quite so professional.
SECOND: Go the Greens! GRNs have busted the block with what is *possibly* ( I need to check this) their first ever state seat in a non-proportional electorate. If you think thats easy – you are on drugs. Melbourne has gone Green, and gone Green in a f*cking canter too. A walkover. Welcome to the new deal bludgers.
THRD: The ‘two-term’ rule (always dubious anyway) is officialy DEAD. Its an ex-parrot. The ALP has easily defeated a sophomore incumbent. Nort even close. Lets not mince words:this is a HUMILIATING DEFEAT for the LNP.
One-term is the new black. Abbott government – be afraid. Be very afraid.
We’re coming for you in 2016. And you are GOING DOWN!
541
There is an exemption for when the Legislative Council is blocking bills. It is modeled on section 57 of the Commonwealth Constitution. There is even a joint sitting provision (very useful for the ALP).
It could be a 2002 style result, if advantageously timed.
However if it is not held on the last Saturday in November, in any of the years of the term, then the term that starts at that election will not be 4 years long because of the fixed election date.
bemused – still catching up – comments were made on old sms news I had that Greens had won 3 seats and Labor 47. I see now that Greens only got 1 and I expect any close ones remaining to go to Labor on prepoll votes.
As I said yesterday – I was nervous before 2002. I must be a real pessimist at heart!
Oh yeah FOURTH: ALP douches up the LC with half-smart preferences. Well, youll live with it now. When are you gusy gonna learn you cant tame the beast? Its irrational. Its random. You cant outthink it. That you’re *seriously* not very good at gaming this? Actually,you’re f*cking TERRIBLE at gaming it? That you shud play it safe?
And actually, the Greens werent any better.
Cant we all do what Antony says and CONSIGN REGISTERED TICKET VOTING TO THE BIN, where we all, deep down, know it belongs?
What happened in Shepparton, with the Nats losing this to an Independent with an huge swing away of 35.5%?
lefty e@544
Well I think now the ALP will have learnt its lesson and start muscling up the Greens.
The Greens are not our friends.
Rocket Rocket@546
I just follow the best available evidence.
In this case, the polls all pointed to a Labor win.
I said a week or two ago that I expected a result in the range comfortable Labor Majority to landslide.
The polls tightened so we got the comfortable Labor Majority.
This is not rocket science.