Victorian election live

Live coverage of counting for the 2014 Victorian election.

10.12pm. The tide continues to go out on the Greens in Richmond, where the ABC computer now has Labor ahead (just).

9.30pm. Okay, got it to open now. Albert Park now being called for Labor, and quite comfortably at that. Frankston still down as Labor gain, unless Steve Bracks had better knowledge when he spoke earlier. There’s now a 2.0% swing to Labor in Ivanhoe, so that danger has passed. Nationals ahead in Morwell, so obviously that’s one we’ll keep tracking over the next few days. Richmond is, in fact, dead level – if that’s a trend, the Greens won’t win after all. Maybe there’s something in the idea that Labor will do better on pre-polls, maybe not. Either way, it’s staying on the watch list. Ripon now Liberal retain, so a good show by Labor but probably no cigar. The ABC computer says Liberal retain in South Barwon, but it’s on the basis of a very slender lead, so obviously it’s only just inside its error margin.

9.28pm. Been attending to a bit of dinner, and now I can’t get the ABC results page to open. But I understand it’s wound Richmond back from Greens gain to Greens ahead.

8.49pm. Steve Bracks now says Frankston is very tight. 12.7% of Frankstonians were sufficiently silly in the head to vote for Geoff Shaw, and these preferences are going hard to the Liberals, which the ABC computer probably didn’t see coming.

8.40pm. One thing I will say about Richmond is that Stephen Jolly (9.3%) is doing a lot better than the Sex Party (3.1%), which is presumably good news for the Greens.

8.36pm. Mary Wooldridge now sounding confident about Ripon — perhaps over-confident but clearly it’s close.

8.35pm. Confusion over Richmond now being acknowledged. Steve Bracks not calling it, but he doesn’t sound all that confident either. Labor have been creeping up in South Barwon – now dead level.

8.30pm. That narrow Labor lead in Ripon never went away. ABC calling it for Labor, but the Liberals might still hope for pre-polls.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Albert Park for Labor. I suggested on News Radio earlier there was still a worst case scenario for Labor where they only one 44 seats, but I’d say that dispatches of it.

8.25pm. Greens now ahead in Brunswick, but I don’t really get the Richmond numbers.

8.22pm. Back now, in case you’ve missed me. ABC computer still calling Richmond for the Greens, but there’s still only one booth on 2PP, the primary vote movements look pretty modest, and maybe Labor will be hopeful about pre-polls.

8.03pm. If you’re a fan of my dulcet tones, I’ll be on News Radio at 8.10. Posting activity has lightened because I’m stepping back and doing my homework.

7.59pm. ABC computer no longer calling South Barwon for Liberal – “LIB AHEAD”.

7.54pm. Prahran interesting: very tight for Labor and Greens to make second, whoever does it will ride home over Libs in preferences. Steve Bracks thinks pre-polls will decided it in Labor’s favour.

7.52pm. Okay, Labor-friendly primary votes are being recorded from Richmond, but they’re swinging big to Richmond. Too early to call, but closer than I indicated. Northcote a bridge too far for the Liberals though. Greens pretty much home in Melbourne. Tight in Brunswick, Labor slightly ahead.

7.50pm. Steve Bracks says he “believes” Labor will win Ripon, calls clean sweep of sandbelt with Prahran included, says Morwell can’t be counted out yet, sounds slightly dubious but still hopeful about Eildon, and calls the election for Labor.

7.49pm. ABC computer has Labor ahead in Ivanhoe now. Craig Langdon polling weakly at 2.5%, so the Liberals’ strength here is actually on their own back.

7.48pm. Greens looking very good in Melbourne though.

7.46pm. Getting very mixed signals on Richmond, which I believe Antony just said was one of two seats where the computer has them ahead. I wonder if he might have had that wrong, or whether I heard wrong. With three booths counted, Greens on only 21.9% of primary vote: with 2600 counted on 2PP, 5.5% swing to Labor.

7.45pm. Labor on track to win Prahran, says Antony. The computer is calling it for them.

7.44pm. Antony turns on his prediction software: Labor definitely 45, which means Labor definitely wins.

7.43pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed almost level with Nationals in Shepparton on primary vote with 40.3% counted. Unless there’s some regional peculiarity brewing, she should win comfortably.

7.42pm. Right down to the wire in Eildon and Ripon.

7.41pm. Much less good for the Greens though in Richmond.

7.40pm. Another latte belt update. The ABC computer is calling Melbourne for the Greens, and contrary to what I said just now, with nose in front in Northcote. I suspect that projecting Labor-versus-Greens is harder than Labor-versus-Liberal though.

7.38pm. Now over 30% counted in Ripon, Labor still with its nose in front.

7.37pm. Steve Bracks reckons Labor ahead in Morwell, which is not what the ABC computer was saying last I’ve looked, and the Nats are under pressure from an independent in Shepparton.

7.36pm. Mary Wooldridge still thinking the Liberals are ahead in Ivanhoe. She’s talking up the swing to the Libs in Narre Warren North, but clearly it won’t cost them the seat, so it sounds like grasping at straws.

7.33pm. ABC computer calling Bentleigh for Labor: 16.1% counted, 3.0% swing to Labor, 0.9% Liberal margin.

7.31pm. Glenn Druery tweets: “On these very, very early numbers minor parties are being elected in the Upper House.. hehehehe.”

7.30pm. Sky News calls the election for Labor, whatever that means exactly.

7.29pm. Labor not home yet in Cranbourne: 16.9% counted, 0.2% swing to Liberal, 1.1% Labor margin. Antony noting consistent 3-4% swings, entirely in line with that poll trend.

7.27pm. ABC computer calls Yan Yean for Labor.

7.25pm. Good early result from the Liberals for Ivanhoe, which they need. Labor “on the cusp of victory” says Antony, summarising situation well.

7.24pm. ABC computer calls South Barwon and Gembrook for Liberal, so certainly not a complete bloodbath.

7.23pm. Ripon likely Labor gain, says ABC computer. The Libs would want to have bagged that one by now — 16.6% counted. But observe my earlier note of caution about Ripon, as earlier reporting booths will be the Swan Hill ones where Nationals are losing sitting member.

7.18pm. ABC TV has more up to date figures from Frankston, with 5.7% counted. This is from the Liberal end of the seat (i.e. the south), and there’s a 6.0% swing to Labor. Maybe the rest of the electorate will behave differently though.

7.16pm. Sandbelt update: Steve Bracks says 2% swing to Labor in Carrum – very tight. ABC numbers from Bentleigh trailing behind what James Campbell is hearing, probably close there but maybe with Labor with nose in front. Labor looking like taking Mordialloc. But next to nothing from Frankston.

7.16pm. Liberals actually not out of the woods in Eildon, but more likely to win than not.

7.15pm. Labor to hold Monbulk, barring big late reversal.

7.14pm. ABC computer calls Bellarine for Labor.

7.13pm. Antony pours cold water on Eildon. Data entry error, by the sounds.

7.12pm. Antony making troubling noises for Coalition: seven or so Labor gains, precisely in line with those poll tracking projections. Mary Wooldridge sounding grim. Steve Bracks says 6% swing to Labor in Bellarine, which they need.

7.10pm. James Campbell of Herald-Sun tweets four booths in Bentleigh are all swinging to Labor, though not by much.

7.09pm. ABC computer very interestingly calls Eildon for Labor with 10.8% swing, although with only 7.7% counted I’d keep that on watch status. Bendigo East and Wendouree called for Labor.

7.07pm. Double-digit swing in Malvern with over 20% counted. Possibly part of a broad trend of these areas getting less blue, without putting the Liberals in any danger.

7.05pm. Over 10% counted in Morwell, 4.6% swing to Labor, but Nationals to hold.

7.01pm. Okay, first numbers from the sandbelt. Mordialloc: two booths with 4.7% counted, big 7.5% swing to Labor. This is the Labor-voting end of the electorate, but still, a big swing’s a big swing.

7.00pm. Mary Wooldridge is also hearing of a swing to Labor in the other Ballarat seat of Wendouree. Big swing to Labor in Benambra, so maybe Bill Tilley hasn’t made himself popular. He’s still safe though.

6.59pm. ABC calls Euroa for the Nationals, in case there was any notion the Liberals might win there.

6.58pm. ABC computer apparently calling Buninyong for Labor, with 5.5% swing.

6.57pm. 7.3% counted in Burwood, 2.6% swing to Labor. The Liberals were getting a bit worried about that one late in the campaign. Jeff Kennett’s old seat, which Labor held from the 1999 by-election after Kennett quit until 2010. Not a must-win seat though by any means.

6.55pm. A solid 6.2% counted in Bundoora, very little swing.

6.54pm. ABC computer calling Macedon for Labor with 5.1% swing in their favour, off their existing margin of 2.3%.

6.49pm. Only 1.8% counted in Ripon, but still, a 2.3% swing to Labor. But we’re probably talking the northern end of the electorate that was formerly in Swan Hill, where the Nationals are losing the personal vote of a sitting member. Things could well swing around when we get bigger booths at the southern end, where it’s Labor who are losing the sitting member. In Yan Yean, first booth swings big to Labor, but only 0.5% counted.

6.47pm. Really big Liberal swing in Polwarth with 5.3% counted.

6.46pm. The ABC projects the first booth from Ripon as a 10.5% swing to the Liberals.

6.42pm. Steve Bracks on ABC reckons 3% swing to Labor in Eltham and 7% swing in Narre Warren North, which would be great news for them – but Mary Wooldridge says she’s seeing the opposite from the latter. She also relates a 1.4% swing on early figures from Ripon, which is less than they would be hoping for.

6.40pm. Big swing to Labor in first small booth in Nepean, so swings and roundabouts at this stage.

6.39pm. Now up to 4.1% counted in Hawthorn, 1.8% swing to the Liberals, which is very mildly encouraging for them.

6.36pm. Antony relates the Nationals are well ahead in Euroa, where the Liberals have annoyed them by fielding a candidate. Maybe the Liberals well do better when bigger centres come in. Small swing to the Liberals in Buninyong, but a tiny rural booth – this one will be decided in bigger Ballarat booths.

6.33pm. Status quo result in the first Hawthorn booth. Big swing to Labor in Lowan, reflecting Hugh Delahunty’s retirement, but still safe Nationals. Swing to the Liberals in Polwarth. Nothing of real interest though.

6.30pm. Single booths trickling in from various electorates around the place, but Macedon still the only one that’s marginal.

6.27pm. Antony on TV says tiny first booth in Macedon has a 0.5% swing to Labor, which they hold by 2.3%.

6.22pm. Antony Green tweets that that Mildura projection is based on 90 votes. Still reckon you can take that one to the bank.

6.15pm. A booth from Mildura is in, and it’s enough for the ABC computer to call it for the Nationals. A foregone conclusion of course, but there it is.

6pm. Welcome to my live blogging of the Victorian election count, for which polls have just closed. The very first results should start trickling in in about half an hour. Known knowns:

• As I type, a Newspoll exit poll should be going to air. I don’t believe the record of Newspoll exit polling has been all that special, but maybe they’ve improved. In any event, watch this space. UPDATE: Newspoll keeps it simple by concurring with Galaxy in having it at 51-49 to Labor.

• A Galaxy exit poll conducted at polling booths today has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. But a similar exercise conducted at pre-poll booths found Labor leading 52.5-47.5. Since maybe a bit over 70% of voters are likely to be cast today (meaning ordinary votes plus absent votes) and nearly 20% cast at pre-polls, and the rest should consist of postals which will be more favourable to the Liberals, this suggests to me that the current BludgerTrack reading is maybe half a point too favourable to Labor, although that’s well within any plausible error margin. So stay tuned, in other words.

• Unlike at federal elections, pre-poll votes will not be counted this evening. So if it’s close, expect tonight’s proceedings to be inconclusive. If so, the VEC will swing into action counting pre-poll votes, as they did in 2010 to resolve the crucial seat of Bentleigh.

• Labor are crying foul that the Greens are not directing preferences in a whole swathe of very important seats, namely Bellarine, Bentleigh, Buninyong, Carrum, Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Ringwood, South Barwon, Wendouree and Yan Yean – and apparently the Liberals issued an open ticket in Melbourne, which gives Labor good cause to feel suspicious about a possible deal between them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

655 comments on “Victorian election live”

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  1. The current calculation:

    In NV has ALP ~ 2000 behind Greens at the exclusion. If ALP catch up 1% on late counting they’ll get ahead and Green preferences elect ALP else ALP preferences elect CA.

    In WV has LibDems are ~150 behind S&F. If late counting favours LDP and S&F are excluded then PUP preferences likely elect GRN instead of S&F.

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