The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).
[134
Socrates
Morning all. The polls are remarkably consistent in being bad for the government lately. Then again, the public performances of Abbott, Hockey and now even Bishop have been much the same. As for policy, their only idea seems ton be to make it to the Christmas break without further embarrassment, having been rebuffed at their ultra-conservative gambit…]
Looking forward, every month we will see labour force data. If the trend is unchanged, this will show a continued rise in unemployment and unstable, weak gains in employment. As well, in December there will be the MYEFO, already foretold to show a deteriorating fiscal position and matched by very weak nominal GDP growth and falling per capita real income. Of course, there’s also the summer itself – the heat, the fires, the extremes. These things will continue to confirm Abbott’s essential policy irrelevance.
March will be the mid-point of the Parliament. The chances are that the 2PP split will be similar to where it is now, or be even worse for the LNP. They will be a Government that will have achieved exactly nothing, have no coherently stated reasons to exist and be facing likely defeat in 2016.
The same sense of pointlessness almost overcame Howard, who responded by proposing the GST. That became his political mission.
Will Abbott find a sense of mission around goals that the public will support? It’s hard to imagine….
I have just assisted my mother to fill in an Postal Vote. She knew who she wanted to support. Easy peasy.
However, I chuckled at two paragraphs in the Directions.
1. “You must complete your ballot papers in the presence of the witness but in a way that does not allow the witness to see how you voted.”
2. “Electors who are unable to read or write or complete the ballot papers because of poor eyesight or other disability may ask another person for help. The witness may help.”
I do understand the problem and would rather people voted than not, but it does leave a lot of leeway for “witnesses” to influence the vote.
I suppose some would argue that the number of disabled who require assistance in voting could not possibly affect the final result. Well, maybe.
MTBW
It has been my pleasure.
Regards Logan he is going really well. He’s had his big pediatric check up and there are no issues. He is a cracker of a lad now.
As a matter of interest he (well, his mother actually) was approached to play baby Jesus in this event that occurs at the Lights of Lobelthal festival.
http://www.lightsoflobethal.com.au/events/nativity
[Hasnt Credlin been there from the start (2009)? Tony isnt capable of continuing without her. Any MP grumbling would surely be aware of that.]
Who will groom Abbott to within an inch of his life every morning if Credlin goes? Who will wipe the sweat from his fevered brow at each and every photo op?
[ lizzie
Posted Saturday, November 22, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink
I notice that Sarah Henderson is also demanding that her area, Geelong, should be shielded from ABC cuts, but in everything else agrees that the ABC is wasteful. ]
Sure to impress her former colleagues at the ABC – Not.
Briefly
The words you cite on warmth, Abbott and goodwill are DN’s … I was arguing for the use of the term …
[Who will groom Abbott to within an inch of his life every morning if Credlin goes? Who will wipe the sweat from his fevered brow at each and every photo op?]
If she does go, will we see a return to the head-nodding, stumbling Abbott of old?!
156
Fran Barlow
I know…I was just interjecting 🙂
[As a matter of interest he (well, his mother actually) was approached to play baby Jesus in this event that occurs at the Lights of Lobelthal festival.
http://www.lightsoflobethal.com.au/events/nativity%5D
BK Wow! Of course your daughter will sy yes and Logan will be Jesus and that means you will be ….? 🙂
[If she does go, will we see a return to the head-nodding, stumbling Abbott of old?!]
or maybe no more blue ties
Credlin may well be the power behind the throne but abbott wouldn’t be the first king to decide a formerly trusted adviser was dispensable.
When Bolt at the Australian editorial mention your name unfavourably it’s time to start weighing the options
[ confessions
Posted Saturday, November 22, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink
It seems somewhat unfair that Credlin is being criticised when she’s done the best she could with what she had to work with with Abbott! ]
My criticism of her is that she is elected by no one, yet seems to be calling many of the shots in the running of the government and by virtue of that, the country.
Yes there have been powerful COS in the past on both sides, but credlin seems to have taken it so much further – even abbott in the past has said he does basically what he is told by her. Even if abbott said this tongue in cheek, there are plenty of indications that is what happens.
The best part is its not working and the reactionaries are suffering for it. So is our country unfortunatley.
Its not working when credlin calls the shots and it is worse when abbott gets off the chain and makes his *Captain’s Calls*.
They cannot be happy with their performance and current position and their monied power base are increasingly making growling noises.
Landmines all over the place for them in the two years ahead, including leadershit ambitions from more than one.
BH
Missing!
Catching up from last night… on betting markets and election prediction:
One long standing interpretation of voting rules is that they are methods for returning the maximum likelihood estimate of a populations’ preferences over outcomes. This idea goes back to Marquis de Condorcet (aka Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat) in the 18th century, who initiated the formal, mathematical study of different voting rules — social choice theory.
Specifically, if you assume that there exists a “correct” outcome (winner/ranking), then it is natural to interpret each voter’s vote as a noisy perception of this outcome. Then, aggregating these outcomes, by adding them or combining them in some other way, gives the ranking or a winner. Statistically speaking, this can be interpreted as a better estimate of social preference, in the same way that increasing sample size improves statistical power.
Betting markets extend this idea to associate a weight with each better/voter’s perception, which is the size of their bet. If you are happy to interpret the size of the bet as a measure of the conviction of the better/voter (and not just proportional to their amount of disposable income, degree of self hatred or depth of addiction) then this automatically places higher weights on more valuable perceptions. Hence betting markets should do at least as well as polls, and if they don’t, it’s probably (in the technical sense) because of some bias in the self-selection of betting market participants.
All in theory, of course.
[Have PB’s Abbott t**d-polishers given up?]
It seems that the turd has, ahem, lost its form.
“The best part is its not working and the reactionaries are suffering for it. So is our country unfortunatley.”
I’m not so worried about our country ..we will bounce back and be stronger for the Abbott experiment. Not so sure about the Lib/Nats though 😉
Fran Marlow
Think it was you talking recently about hydrogen power. Coming to a place near you…….eventually.
[2015 Toyota Mirai first drive
Toyota’s Mirai will be the world’s first mass-produced fuel-cell car and we’ve driven it. Who can honestly say that this technology isn’t serious now?
Over two decades and countless squillions of R&D blood and treasure has produced this – a state-of-the-art, showroom-ready, four-door saloon, capable of 111mph, 0-62mph in 9.6secs and a range of 300 miles on the 5kg of hydrogen stored in two tanks under its rear seats. Refueling them takes about five minutes.]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/toyota/mirai/
dave:
Yep, and the irony of it all is that the signs were all there for the coalition long before the election. That uber control, the increasing concentration of decision making in the leader’s office didn’t just happen when they were elected to govt.
They did nothing about it then, even when it was clear what was happening, so I have no sympathy for the whingeing from backbenchers and their media spruikers about Credlin now.
Dan Gulberry Posted Saturday, November 22, 2014 at 1:28 am @ 56
Thanks for that. The problem with dropping the stated based 7:30 is there will be no where for such issues to get a proper airing. Being a WA story I doubt this would have made it to the national 7:30 program (although I would argue it probably should have give it’s a result of Federal funding cuts and likely to be replicated in QLD and the NT).
For those that haven’t seen it Fred Chaney, former Minister for Aboriginal Affairs (or something like that) in the Fraser Government is being interviewed about the WA Government’s proposed closure of many small remote Aboriginal communities.
BK
That will be lovely for your family and I am so glad he is doing well.
How things have changed in the medical area my son was born 4lb 2oz and was in a humidicrib for two months.
He is now in his early forties and a strapping man who thinks he knows more than his mother does and reminds her often.
[Missing!]
Chicken :devil:
[162
dave
They cannot be happy with their performance and current position and their monied power base are increasingly making growling noises.]
The local edition of The People’s Daily, the ABC, published this recently…
[Business leaders losing confidence in Abbott Government
Updated 5 Nov 2014, 10:53amWed 5 Nov 2014, 10:53am
The Prime Minister Tony Abbott likes to boast that Australia is open for business, but his government appears to be losing friends at the big end of town. A survey from Institute of Company Directors has found the nation’s most powerful board rooms are not happy with the Coalition’s performance. Their confidence in the Government has slumped to the lowest level seen since last year’s election.]
The Government Gazette also reported
[The confidence felt by company directors for the Federal Coalition Government has slumped to its lowest level since the election in September 2013.
Almost half of all directors rate the government’s performance in its first year in office as poor or very poor, according to the latest Director Sentiment Index.
The survey shows overall director sentiment has slipped 7.1 points since the last survey, falling back to the same level recorded in early 2013 when the former Labor Government was in power.]
Basically, this Government does not have the first clue of how to run the country. They exemplify dysfunction compounded by denial and blame-shifting.
[169
B.C.]
Fred Chaney was on fire last night.
briefly
[Basically, this Government does not have the first clue of how to run the country. They exemplify dysfunction compounded by denial and blame-shifting.]
And their leader doesn’t have a clue!
I love how Pyne and Henderson want their electorates not to lose the ABC but support the rest of the country having to lose it.
Absolute ars*holes!
[ The problem with dropping the stated based 7:30 is there will be no where for such issues to get a proper airing. Being a WA story I doubt this would have made it to the national 7:30 program (although I would argue it probably should have give it’s a result of Federal funding cuts and likely to be replicated in QLD and the NT).]
B.C
The commercials can’t provide the balance in stories like this so it’s disappointing if the State programs are to go.
When Fred Chaney speaks out we should all listen. He’s proved is worth in this area.
167
poroti
How cool!
[How things have changed in the medical area my son was born 4lb 2oz and was in a humidicrib for two months.]
I was just under 4lb and had to be in a humicrib too.
confessions
How the world of medicine has changed.
We are very lucky in this country.
BN
More a wise man in absentia. 🙂
briefly
Mercedes are set to roll their one out in 2017. You can see read the brochure here.
http://www.mbusa.com/vcm/MB/DigitalAssets/pdfmb/fcell/248x168_b-klasse_f-cell_NP11_EN_DS_low2.pdf
LU 164 – Yes I am not totally bagging betting markets. It’s just that a few years ago this “meme” crept up saying that the betting favourites always win, and the markets perform better than the polls. Which was subsequently shown not to be the case, most clearly at the Vic 2010 election where the last polls did predict the final outcome.
I do follow the changes, and some of the most interesting stuff is on election night in a close election. With no possibility of influencing the outcome (as some have suggested with large bets on individual seats to try and make certain candidates look better) it is self interest at ten paces.
So on the night of the 2010 federal election it was interesting to see Gillard’s odds of PM shortening and Abbott’s lengthening during the close and confusing situation.
Peppering the kegs sounds like something from the old, pre-refrigeration era with meat salted and carried in kegs. Hence peppering the off meat would be to hide the stench from customers.
Peppering the kegs sounds like something from the old, pre-refrigeration era with meat salted and carried in kegs. Hence peppering the off meat would be to hide the stench from customers.
poroti
[2015 Toyota Mirai first drive]
But ugly as!
[177
confessions
How things have changed in the medical area my son was born 4lb 2oz and was in a humidicrib for two months.
I was just under 4lb and had to be in a humicrib too.]
It’s marvelous to think of! My first child also had to be given special care for a while as a result of respiratory difficulties at birth.
I was thinking about this sort of thing in the context of Nicholas’ contention (made a few days ago) that there could be no real improvements in the “productivity” of nurses. The very notable reductions in infant mortality and improvements in population health generally serve to refute such claims.
The output of the healthcare system is not measured by an arbitrary and self-limiting indicator, such as nurse-minutes spent per patient per day (though even on this measure, more patients are served per nurse-year as treatments improve and hospitalisation times fall).
Output is rationally measured in such terms as population morbidity and mortality, life expectancy, the incidence of diseases and the efficacy of treatments for them, the length of time patients spend in hospital, the effectiveness of preventive care, immunisation rates…and so on through the various indicators of population health.
By these measures, it cannot be argued that there are no productivity gains available in health care. The opposite is demonstrably true.
180
poroti
I will have to start saving..trade in my current buggy 🙂
[Yes I am not totally bagging betting markets. It’s just that a few years ago this “meme” crept up saying that the betting favourites always win, and the markets perform better than the polls. Which was subsequently shown not to be the case, most clearly at the Vic 2010 election where the last polls did predict the final outcome.]
Sure thing, RR, I completely agree, hence the caveat at the end regarding the self-selection bias (among others).
I don’t have time to dig it up, but I think there’s some analysis showing that betting markets are quite well calibrated (Hannan-consistent), in that the probabilities of getting the right prediction over several instances correspond to the true proportions – but of course they don’t get it right every time.
No free lunches, and all that 😉
Briefly, Fran, I think you’d like this:
http://theconversation.com/flat-battery-new-prototype-turns-waste-heat-into-electricity-34304
Is it time for Julie Bishop to stop dressing like she’s on the bridge of the USS Starship Enterprise.
markjs@166
I think the simplistic “solutions” offered by the conservatives needed to be shown to fail before we can move on. In the west the conservative side of politic has reassured us the fagilities of our economic
I assume ‘pepper the kegs’ relates to topping up gunpowder kegs with pepper to give the appearance of having sufficient gunpowder. The problem arises when the gunpowder has to be used.
… system exposed by the GFC were not a concern. The fragility of the planet due to global warming was also not a concern.
It’s an attractive proposition as the reality of economic reform required in the context of a planet hitting certain limits is wickedly complicated and needs hard work.
(sorry for the split post – must have fat-fingered the post button half way)
BRIEFLY – I’ve always been expecting, from Day One, that Tone would return to the Howard playbook and run a GST campaign next time. It’s the only playbook he knows. However, the big difference between him and Johnnie is that Tone has totally and comprehensively shredded his credibility. Who will believe him next time. Who would trust him to implement a GST fairly.
Abbott’s problem:
While its hard to polish a t**d, diarrhea is impossible to polish.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@193
Also, the argument for replacing a myrids of taxes with a simple broadbased GST was sound.
The arguments for increasing and broadening the GST are there… but no where near as compelling.
Interesting that here in Sangropia the local West rarely mentions any poll results other than its on in-house one which happens to be ReachTel these days.
Today’s effort on the ReachTel, tucked away in the usual Saturday mess of a paper that the West has become, is headed “Labor gains ground on government….”.
It seems the West just finds it too hard to look at 53-47 as a current election-winning lead and it is thus must be an aberration and treated as such.
Never mind about the Murdoch press building a shell around Abbott, the Stoke’s paper her is doing just fine at the same game.
As an insurance policy, of course, Bishop Jnr has been lifted to the status of Woman of Steel.
Strangely, however, Emperor Barnett is treated much more roughly, though the West makes more fun of LOTO McGown for not being able to somehow nail Barnett.
By the way Kevin 17@ 190, you will get mush all over your face for your comments about Bishop the Jnr’s dress.
RR
[Betting markets are not always right. ]
Betting markets were paying $10 on Labor in the SA election this year. The polls were right with the Libs handily ahead but the seats didn’t fall.
Unless polls are for specific marginal seats, it’s easy for the polls to get it wrong esp in elections with small numbers of seats.
I suppose the same could happen in Vic.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/weekend-22-23-nov-science-technology-society-etc-links-draft/#comment-875578
[briefly
November 22, 2014 at 11:36 am
skippy
November 22, 2014 at 7:49 am
Science is a methodology e.g. a tool.
Maybe science is a tool. Maybe not. I tend to think of logic, learning and the creative imagination as operating autonomously.
We are accustomed to the non-controversial observation that our species has the properties (among others) of being capable of “intellectual” activities – of being able to introspect and reflect, of being able to use both deductive and inductive reasoning, and of being creative. These properties have allowed us to develop science, among other things.
Since these properties most likely exist elsewhere in the universe, we should see ourselves as their biological vehicles – as one of their vectors.
This inverts the usual relationship. It means that we may see the processes of learning and discernment, of the discovery and elaboration of knowledge, as operating within us but not, as it were, as a result of our own volition. The more networked our learning becomes, the more obvious it is that knowledge does not reside in any one place or with any single author. It exists among the many thinkers distributed in a population that is continually changing, adapting to extant knowledge and elaborating new knowledge.
It is now quite possible to see this as a process by which we now serve the accumulation of knowledge rather than the reverse.
In this sense, it may be that science is not our tool – rather, we are one of its tools.]
[188
Libertarian Unionist]
Thanks LU. I read that..learned about the Carnot Limit…very cool!
I wonder if the ALP or the Greens are preparing a response to any attempt to alter the GST.
I’d like to think they are developing a more nuanced response than just “no”. The could support the general concept of ensuring the country has a sound revenue base to fund services. Ensure all other transfer payments are re-calibrated so that the tax system is more substantially more progressive. Be clear about what would be left out …. and so…
Basically, take the moral high ground side of the GST debate and leave the conservatives to fight on things like why you can’t provide proper compensation for pensioners or substaintually increase the tax free threshold.
Then again, a GST (gotta stop tony) negative campaign would probably work quite well.