BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 38
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  1. dtt,

    You know enough to be scared according to your own words.

    Maybe pull the rug over your head and start whistling a happy tune is the best way for you to proceed.

  2. daretotread

    Not sure what his ruling style is but he has for years been big on villages becoming self sufficient in energy/electricity as a way to lift them out of poverty. His particular hobby horse is solar power.

    [Modi To Seek US Funds For 100 GW Each of Solar & Wind

    Since taking office in May, he’s promised a “saffron” revolution that brings solar lighting to all 400 million people that still live in the dark by 2019]
    http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.feature/id/1925

  5. I haven’t been on here for ages. But I just want to relay the following.

    I work in an investment bank with rusted on blue ties.

    Increasingly I hear disparaging remarks about Abbott and how he is an embarrassment.

    Two dyed in the wool Fib supporters are prepared to vote informal.

    As bad as the Fibs are I don’t get any inkling that my colleagues would ever vote against the Coalition.

  6. Poroti

    Thanks. That is the sort of information I wanted to know.

    I have skimmed the wikki entry which is interesting and I recall the Gujarat riots. I had not long before actually been in Gujarat and in Ahmnebad, so it saddened me.

    I found his speech quite compelling in that he had a strong delivery etc. He was very charismatic and the crowd was clearly captivated.

    However demagogues are by nature scary (yep ickle bitty GG), hence my query. Is he a sane and rational demagogue who will lead India to make real and lasting economic gains or is he a confrontational demagogue who might start war with Pakistan. I do not know. That is why little Geegee, I asked a question.

  7. [1623
    AussieAchmed

    So one fat cow bought a whole herd of big fat cows]

    I’m no Ginaphile, AA, but that is not one of your best posts.

  9. I watched Modi’s speech too. Amongst all his raise the common man speech he gave a clear example of intent

    He said what India can learn from Australia is its Labor laws. He said Australians treat the cleaner with the same respecy as a doctor.

    A pretty clear attack on the caste system

  10. dtt,

    So were you really afraid. Or, were you bulldusting, as usual?

    Your posts have no credibility, honesty or point do they.

    BTW are we all dead from Ebola yet?

  11. Wakefield@1609

    William. Currently when I bring up a PB Post it lists 1, 2, 3 and the last list of comments. Is it possible for the list of numbers to include 3 numbers at the end of the Post as well as for the start so 1, 2,3 and 31, 32 and 33 for the current one? Would make it slightly easier (one click less each time to catch up on the last hour or 2 of posts.

    Good luck with that, mate!

  15. Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    Newspoll tomorrow, wow! #PVONewsHour

    …I know, I know …PvO loves to play silly buggers with NewsPoll. But someone else is tweeting that a Libspill could be on the cards..

  19. Victoria

    If you had been following the Warrnambool Cheese and Butter takeover by Canadian based Saputo over the past 2 years you would know that the Chinese market for infant formula was the key reason for the takeover. Common knowledge in the industry that there was a pretty good chance of it happening.

    So not sure how accusing Gina Rinehart of having inside knowledge stacks up.

  22. markjs

    [
    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    Newspoll tomorrow, wow! #PVONewsHour]
    Isn’t that the same tweet he sent last Newspoll ?

  24. markjs@1715

    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    Newspoll tomorrow, wow! #PVONewsHour

    …I know, I know …PvO loves to play silly buggers with NewsPoll. But someone else is tweeting that a Libspill could be on the cards..

    Even if there is a libspill, will it be enough to save, what could be a sinking ship ?
    Who would they change to anyway ?
    The only one who could possibly be acceptable to a public at large would be Turnbull, but all accounts is that he is despised within his party, any one else would be seen as just as bad, if not worse than Tony.

  25. [Good luck with that, mate!]

    Fair go, Don! Don’t be so negative. You got a preview button after three years of lobbying! Never say never 😉

  26. ruawake

    Yes je spoke for over an hour. Lots about providing electricity hygine and bank accounts for everyone.

    Australian inyerest is the announcement of visa on arrival for those of us visiting

  27. PVO’s “wows” regarding his Newspoll sneak peeks are as childish and lame as one discredited poster’s “yikes” here!

  29. You there Lizzie…

    Re ABC News24 in QLD. I am streaming it via the ‘puter’. Now I am getting live 4 corners. Never happened before.

    Do you or anyone happens to know what is happening. Not that I mind I might get an early showing of Media Watch and then QandA.

  30. [Liberal strategist and former Howard adviser Grahame Morris has been forced to apologise after calling ABC 7.30 presenter Leigh Sales a “cow” over her interview last week with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.]

    Morris has form here — he also used ABC to call for Julia Gillard to be kicked to death. The ABC is really good at enabling Liberal sexism and violent imagery.

    When will the Libs distance themselves from him and stop dealing with his lobbying company?

  31. GG

    I was in a beach cinema in the NT once when a croc came out of the sea and emptied the front half of the cinema audience.

    There was a wet canteen up the back and there was a fair bit of advice and commentary from those behind to those up front.

  32. PVO could also just be taking the piss, after everyone heckled him for tweeting wow so often, and he stopped for a while. There could be no movement at all.

    markjs – there is ALWAYS someone tweeting about “Libspill” and looking through those who did so today, its all no name ALP supporters, no one with any insight at all.

  33. The best known “Wow ” factor was undoubtedly Warren “Wow” Jones former Carlton Premiership player who, for reasons known only to himself had both his buttocks tattooed with a large letter W.

  34. I hardly ever watch Qanda – when do they cross to Newspoll results? Because a “wow” Newspoll could well bring a smile to Malcolm Turnbull without anything needing to be sadi by Ben Elton.

  36. After what they put the Labor Government through for the best part of 4 years, I can’t see the LNP having a libspill anytime soon.

  39. Rua

    From the wikki entry it seems Modi was of relatively “common” stock. Not untouchable but not high caste either

    GG
    I do not know why I bother wasting my time with you but yes I am a little scared by Modi. He is very charismatic – very. However charismatic leaders IF they turn on other races/countries can evolve into dangerous tyrants. So yes he scared me more than Putin and more that Xi from China. More than Abe. Now be a good little bludger and go and look up the words charismatic and tyrant I know they are vewy, vewy big but please try.

    As for Ebola GG you are a right proper twat and I KNOW that health authorities are taking it a little bit more seriously that you are. Give you a little hint little Geegee – if Ebola gets to India those 15,000 people in Olympic park this evening are EACH potential carriers of the virus back to Greensborough, just near you. Of course with a little bit of luck a vaccine will be in place before it gets to India/Australia.

    Oh and without a vaccine or active intervention in exactly 12 months there will be 11,753,785 cases of the virus, based on transfer rates from 9/12/13 until two days ago. I guess 100+ or so of this 11 million might be in Greensborough.

  40. Sorry if I have some people’s sensibilities.

    Having had dealings with her, my view of her remains unchanged.

    Apologies to those who are offended.

  43. dtt,

    So we’re not all dead yet. Such a relief.

    The reason you bother wasting your time is that you have nothing else to do with it.

  45. God, another ‘wow’ from PvO…

    Although, any backwards movement for the Government after a solid week on issues that are supposed to be his safe-haven, would be pretty bloody de-stabilising.

    But the ONLY circumstances in which I can see a leadership change, is that it would have to be presented as a voluntary stepping-down. But I can’t fathom such a thing happening. But no one really expected Rudd to be chucked, or Baillieu etc etc… so never say never.

  46. Darren Laver@1725

    Good luck with that, mate!


    Fair go, Don! Don’t be so negative. You got a preview button after three years of lobbying! Never say never

    Maybe, but I don’t know if Wakefield is as persistent and bloody minded as I am!

    👿

  47. [PVO’s “wows” regarding his Newspoll sneak peeks are as childish and lame as one discredited poster’s “yikes” here!]

    From my memory it was PvO who invented “Yikes!” as well, in regards to click-bait Newspoll tweets.

  48. J341983@1745

    God, another ‘wow’ from PvO…

    Although, any backwards movement for the Government after a solid week on issues that are supposed to be his safe-haven, would be pretty bloody de-stabilising.

    But the ONLY circumstances in which I can see a leadership change, is that it would have to be presented as a voluntary stepping-down. But I can’t fathom such a thing happening. But no one really expected Rudd to be chucked, or Baillieu etc etc… so never say never.

    Maybe it’s a wow because the LNP are now ahead in the polls!

  50. All I know about tonight’s Newspoll is I will be glad when the subsequent PB post occurs, so I don’t have to dig down on the PB main page to find the latest federal politics thread 😛

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