BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 38
1 33 34 35 38
  1. As I predicted last night, the sycophantic hacks in the media are playing up today’s news and declaring Abbott a hero on the world stage and for the economy – completely whitewashing everything else that happened at the G20.

    Unfortunately for Abbott, it won’t really resonate with voters (voters don’t really care about that kind of stuff. And, if the effects are positive, won’t give him credit for it) but him making cost of living pressures worse will.

  2. Is something happening with ABC News 24 … I am not getting the usual program with no ticker displaying underneath.

    Do I smell a strike ?

  3. [ The voters are not as stupid as the Government treats them, they are able to see through the bullshyte, ]

    I think the best, objective, indicator of that being the current state of play is that the Liberals polling deficit is so consistent and entrenched.

    They really need something, anything, that can reset the public’s perception of their Govt in a positive manner. Seems to me that their domestic agenda is so toxic, and their fronts people are perceived as such hypocrites, that this is going to be remarkably difficult for them.

  4. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 6:44 pm | PERMALINK
    As I predicted last night, the sycophantic hacks in the media are playing up today’s news and declaring Abbott a hero on the world stage and for the economy – completely whitewashing everything else that happened at the G20.

    Unfortunately for Abbott, it won’t really resonate with voters (voters don’t really care about that kind of stuff. And, if the effects are positive, won’t give him credit for it) but him making cost of living pressures worse will.]

    If the sort of people who believe Alan Jones are any guide, Abbott has a big negative on his hands with the China FTA.

  5. It would make sense for the ABC management (Liberal Party) to pull News24 off air without warning if funding were withdrawn for it, rather than have a bunch of bolshie presenters moaning and bad-mouthing the government on air.

  6. Abbott is a lame duck. I take great pleasure in the Liberals dilemma. I hope Abbott is still there for the next election. After another two years of this, I will enjoy Watching them sell the steaming pile with Abbott astride it. It might even jolt a few wilfully ignorant voters from their idiotic notion that the Liberal Party knows how to manage the economy, just because.

  7. Abbott is a lame duck. I take great pleasure in the Liberals dilemma. I hope Abbott is still there for the next election. After another two years of this, I will enjoy Watching them sell the steaming pile with Abbott astride it. It might even jolt a few wilfully ignorant voters from their idiotic notion that the Liberal Party knows how to manage the economy, just because.

  8. Abbott is a lame duck. I take great pleasure in the Liberals dilemma. I hope Abbott is still there for the next election. After another two years of this, I will enjoy Watching them sell the steaming pile with Abbott astride it. It might even jolt a few wilfully ignorant voters from their idiotic notion that the Liberal Party knows how to manage the economy, just because.

  9. Local state liberal member in Melbourne handing out his flyers without any mention of the fact he belongs to the Liberal party!!!!

  10. [Local state liberal member in Melbourne handing out his flyers without any mention of the fact he belongs to the Liberal party!!!!]

    Must have taken his lead from Kate in Ashgrove in 2012. In 2012 it was all pink with no red or Labor.

  11. Penny Wong’s mother is a Caucasian Australian. I grant you her father is of Chinese extraction.

    However, I gather English was (and always had been) spoken at home, but that any secondary language spoken would have been Malay, not Chinese.

    Granted it is many years ago now that I had a conversation with her on this very subject, but that is my recollection.

  12. Yb – 1644 “I work in a field where I get to speak to a large number of people, across the whole spectrum of Australians. What is interesting is that, “to a tee”, they all cringe when the topic turns to Tony Abbott.”

    What I have noticed in the three outer eastern Melbourne Federal electorates where I work is that among the non-engaged (the majority) voters who would have voted for Coalition in 2013 there is not that sort of “grudging respect” that Howard and even Fraser had.

    I really do expect that if the polls stay pretty much in this territory , by this time next year we will be looking at a change of Liberal leader.

  13. The MSM are glibly parroting the “lame duck” cliché about Obama. The fact is that he will be POTUS until the end of January 2017. That’s more than enough time to see off the inglorious Prime Ministership of Tony Abbott.

  14. [Carey

    Hard to get swing voters for you if your base is deserting you]

    Yeah, that’s not how the Alan Jones crowd works. They’ll have and puff now but Abbott just needs to mention Muslims and they’ll be back behind him.

  15. Chinda

    A quick wikki search shows Penny’s parents separated when she was young so I guess she would have had little exposure to Chinese, unless she learned at school

  16. A submission to block websites that host or link to copyright infringing movies and TV shows could be before cabinet by Christmas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/online-piracy-websites-set-to-be-blocked-sources-20141117-11o8pz.html

    They haven’t heard of VPNs?

    This is why I pay $10/month for unlimited, high-speed VPN access (well, that and removing geoblocking, so I can watch Netflix and BBC iPlayer).

    If China can’t block Facebook, why do they think they can block torrent sites? The internet was designed to be unblockable.

  17. [
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 5:06 pm | Permalink
    ….
    Now that they’re sliding back into landslide territory against, what are they going to try next?
    ]
    Reintroduce carbon trading; get serious about disability insurance; call of the sale of Medi-bank private; give up trying to destroying the NBN.

    There is a list to start with.

  18. Listening to the speech b y the Indian Prime Minister on ABC-24.

    They have an almost unintelligible translator whose accent is thicker than the speaker’s. Can hardly understand a word.

    The lady needs a couple of Fisherman’s Friends, she’s so bad.

    Meanwhile, across the bottom of the screen are live subtitles. Clear, readable and comprehensive.

    So what does ABC-24 do?

    They put up a big crawl across the bottom of the screen telling us the astounding information that the Indian PM is addressing a crowd in Sydney… completely obscuring the sub-titles and rendering the speech complete gobbledeegook.

    Absolutely BRILLIANT ABC. Brilliant.

  19. No mention on ABC TV News as to what concessions Australia gave.

    They just mentioned what access we get in China.

    Report based on press release ? Doubt if abbott will front to answer questions on it – in particular those aspects which they so far refuse to disclose.

    Would Labor have gotten away with “A letter of Intent” posing as the signing of a FTA ?

    No way.

  20. I’ll have to clear some misinformation around Penny Wong. Her dad was of Chinese Hakka descent from the eastern Malaysia state of Sabah.

    I won’t presume to know what her language ability is but considering she lived in Kota Kinabalu until the age of 8, she might have picked up (in addition to English) Hokkien, Mandarin, Malay and possibly other Chinese dialects like Teo Chew and Cantonese. Chinese of Cantonese descent are more predominantly found in the nation’s capital of Kuala Lumpur, and thus, most of the Chinese broadcast on the TV and radio is in Cantonese. Hakka is more dominant in the Eastern states.

    My other half came from the adjacent state of Sarawak and is well verse in English, Malay, Mandarin, Teo Chew and a bit of Cantonese.

    Of course, considering Penny Wong might not have used much of the other languages, the knowledge might have withered away leaving her with only English considering she left Malaysia at an early age.

  21. As they say, “Trubble at mill…”:

    Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp cops major investor revolt
    Rupert Murdoch’s iron grip on his publishing empire is slipping after a massive revolt against the family’s minority control of News Corp that appears to have included one of his key backers.

    The voting of a large number of investors at News Corp’s annual meeting revealed widespread displeasure for the company’s structure, which disenfranchises most of its shareholders.

    At the meeting a shareholder proposal to unwind the company’s controversial dual-class voting structure was narrowly defeated by 79.1 million shares voted in favour to 87.6 million against.

    The structure allows the Murdoch family to control around 40 per cent of the company’s votes despite owning just 12 per cent of News Corp through its ownership of class B common stock, which holds the voting rights.

    Based on the voting, it is reported that Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who has long been seen as closely aligned to Mr Murdoch, voted his near 7 per cent stake in favour of the proposal to unwind the structure.
    “It is a close outcome. It is fair to say that there is really only a small group of insiders who happen to have a very large position that have benefited from the structure,” independent analyst Mark McDonnell said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/rupert-murdochs-news-corp-cops-major-investor-revolt-20141117-11ohmg.html#ixzz3JJVPcnrh

  22. What do people know about Modi

    My impression from his speech is that he is very very bright, but a bit of a demagogue. He scares me more than Putin. He is however very charismatic.

  23. I almost vomited after watching Robb’s interview on 7.30

    The turd tried to claim that out of all the western powers Australia was the only one doing something about climate change and how Australia were meeting its targets.

    Let me tell you something you turd that has nothing to do with your fraudulent direct action plan and more to do with the carbon tax

  24. GG
    Why don’t you pull you head in.

    I am trying to have a sensible discussion. Trying also to find out what those PBers who read more than the form guide actually know of him. I know very, very little.

  25. Sachin,

    They might have killed the Carbon Price, but the Libs are not above taking advantage of the outcomes produced by Labor’s efforts.

    There’s a chart around the twitterverse showing the level of Australian emissions decreasing up until, the day they repealed the Carbon price and increasing thereafter. No doubt, this will get even more pronounced in the coming months and years.

  26. AJH – I just used a thing on the internet called “What’s my IP address”. It seems I’m beaming to you here from somewhere in San Jose California. The Govt is obviously desperate to protect Foxtel revenues, but it is noteworthy that:
    (a) VPNs means they can’t;
    (b) Nobody who pirates is going to be intimidated into buying Foxtel garbage; and
    (c) All this govt is doing is piss people off.

Comments Page 34 of 38
1 33 34 35 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *