BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 38
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  6. Comb-over useless. Joe Hockey useless. MH’s 370 and 17 useless. Debt-and-Deficit useless. 3-word slogans useless. Manus and Nauru useless. Carbon aggravation useless. Punishing dole bludgers useless. Death Cult Jihadis useless. Dairy industry Triumph (whoop-dee-do!) useless.

    When are they going to realize that the voters want them just DO SOMETHING, rather than fart around trying to score quick points in the polls.

    This was the mob that was an unbackable favourite to win the last election (and did so).

    Now that they’re sliding back into landslide territory against, what are they going to try next?

  7. BB, first they have to be convinced they have it wrong. That will take some effort, as their victory last election convinced them that they had it right.

  9. William. Currently when I bring up a PB Post it lists 1, 2, 3 and the last list of comments. Is it possible for the list of numbers to include 3 numbers at the end of the Post as well as for the start so 1, 2,3 and 31, 32 and 33 for the current one? Would make it slightly easier (one click less each time to catch up on the last hour or 2 of posts.

  10. 1598
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 4:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Did Gina have advance knowledge of the Dairy Industries access to infant formula exports to China in the FTA? Or is it just a coincidence?

    …the richest Australian is spending half a billion to build Hope Dairies from scratch. Bloomberg reports it’ll take up 5000 hectares of Queensland farmland pumping out an extraordinary 30,000 tonnes of infant formula per year, all of it bound for China, gazumping Australia’s present milk powder exports to China of 18,000 tonnes per year.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gina-rineharts-dairy-investment-contrasts-with-undervalued-breast-milk-20141114-11mmjf.html#ixzz3JIkrydtT

    barnaby is the agriculture minister. We know he is best buddies with Miss Gina

  11. Bushfire Bill@1606

    This was the mob that was an unbackable favourite to win the last election (and did so).

    Now that they’re sliding back into landslide territory against, what are they going to try next?

    Don’t forget the mantra.

    This mob didn’t get picked into running the country. The previous mob got themselves kicked out.

    If things continue, this mob will suffer the same.

  12. For two years they have sworn black and blue that they were innocent.

    Totally innocent.

    All they wanted was the opportunity to prove their innocence in a court.

    Now they want closed hearings.

    Why would that be?

  13. ruawake@1602

    Morgan out

    G20 and APEC Summits do nothing to help Abbott or the Liberal Party


    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5935-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-november-17-2014-201411170449


    Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (4.5%) followed by Tasmania (3%), South Australia 2%, Western Australia (2%), New South Wales (2%) and lowest in Victoria (1.5%) – which faces a State Election next week (Saturday November 29, 2014).

    I think this poll picks up the voting intention for PUP a lot better than the rest. I still don’t know how someone got 5% for PUP in SA when you they have to jostle around with Party X.

  14. Abbott seems to be strangely silent on this MH 17 development – does he care any more?

    [(CNN) — Delayed for months by chaos and conflict, the recovery of wreckage from downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 has finally begun in war-torn eastern Ukraine, Dutch officials said Sunday…

    Dutch officials have commissioned the recovery and transport of the wreckage back to the Netherlands as part of the investigation into the cause of the crash.

    The recovery operation is expected to take several days, the Dutch Safety Board said in a statement Sunday, and security and other factors will be assessed daily.

    The wreckage will be transported to the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv before being sent to the Netherlands.

    The investigators intend to reconstruct a section of the aircraft, the safety board said.]

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/16/world/europe/netherlands-ukraine-mh17-wreckage/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

  15. So, Abbott supports Australian jobs by:

    (a) destroying whole industries
    (b) enabling foreign firms to bring foreign workers into Australia on lesser terms and conditions.

    Anyone who actually still has a job in Australia or who is working the number of hours they want to work, or who has some semblance of job security would be absolutely MAD to vote for the Coalition.

  16. Oh wow so there is no signing of a FTA with China today, what a slimey con.

    [Australia and China have signed the Declaration of Intent for a Free Trade Agreement]

  18. [citizen
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Abbott seems to be strangely silent on this MH 17 development – does he care any more?]

    (a) Did he ever care? Last week he was all for shirtfronting a murderer. This week he was shaking hands cordially with same. Abbott is sociopathic behaviour personified.

    (b) The Russians would have said to the Dutch, ‘You can come and pick up the pieces but don’t bring your crazy friend’.

    (c) The Dutch would have said, ‘What friend?’

  22. p
    Further to the 15,000 cow dairies:

    Per cow productivity has been pushed to such an extent that:

    (a) their udders collapse
    (b) they are increasingly infertile
    (c) their milking life is around half of what it used to be.

    The concomitants are that individual cows require increasing inputs to keep them disease-free.

  27. [ruawake
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 5:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh wow so there is no signing of a FTA with China today, what a slimey con.

    Australia and China have signed the Declaration of Intent for a Free Trade Agreement]

    Abbott demanded the Chinese insert a “don’t upset Alan Jones” clause after his roasting this morning?

  29. lizzie

    There was a some stuff critical of it on ABC this morning.

    Condemning the action and asking for all the alleged savings who was going to foot the bill for the new housing that would be needed in towns like Fitzroy Crossing.

    Is it about moving the people off the land to make it easier for the mining companies?

  30. It seems the FTA with China will be signed next year, todays face was a bit of stuntage.

    [The governments will now prepare final texts, to be signed next year.]

    Abbott needed an “announceable” for Xi’s address to Parliament, and the Press seems to have bought it.

  33. [ I tend to go by the tingle in my left shinbone. ]

    Laura is doing what up the left leg of your strides??

    [ barnaby is the agriculture minister. We know he is best buddies with Miss Gina ]

    Insider trading??

  34. [ The governments will now prepare final texts, to be signed next year. ]

    …So abbott doesn’t achieve his own goal of having a FTA with China *by the end of 2014*

  35. Abbott helps promote the dreaded wind turbines (just don’t tell Hockey).

    [Tasmania will become a test site for Chinese wind turbines after a deal was signed in Canberra ahead of a visit to the state by president Xi Jinping.

    Ten wind turbines using Chinese generator technology will be built in Tasmania.

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Mr Xi attended the signing of the agreement between Hydro Tasmania and Shenhua Group Corporation Limited.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/chinese-wind-farm-technology-test-secured-for-tasmania/5897442

    Maybe Alan Jones has a point – Abbott welcomes the Chinese but destroys the local manufacturers.

  36. Lizzie

    There has been comment critical of Barnett on the communities but you have to look for it.

    I even saw a comment from Abbott’s man Mundine as well as Fred Chaney.

    But you have to remember this is WA we are talking about, we are not on the news radar of the Sydney Melbourne Canberra axis and this week we had brisbane dominating the news as well.

    And it might not happen (well I think it will happen) for a couple of years.

    And they are just aboriginal families who like to live out in the bush so who really cares …

    I am sure you get my drift

  38. The ALP position on a China FTA

    [Labor has stated consistently that the benchmarks for a genuinely liberalising and high-quality FTA with China include:

    New Zealand-plus market access outcomes for Australian farmers and other exporters;
    Elimination or significant reductions in tariffs on Australian industrial goods;
    Retention of Australia’s anti-dumping safeguards;
    Major improvements in market access for Australian services;
    Reduction in red-tape and other barriers to Chinese investment in Australia and to Australian investment in China;
    No provisions which give Chinese companies operating in Australia superior legal rights to those enjoyed by Australian companies;
    Retention of labour market testing or comparable safeguards on temporary migration.

    Labor will use Parliamentary processes to assess the FTA against these benchmarks and to ensure that it is in Australia’s national interest.]

  42. Lizzie

    I would be surprised if any parliamentarian speaks Chinese – except I guess the senators Di Wang and Penny Wong. Are there any others of Chinese descent. I sort of think there is an LNP guy somewhere.

  43. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, November 17, 2014 at 6:01 pm | PERMALINK
    citizen

    You mean that the Chinese wind turbines are more attractive in the landscape than the Portland ones?]

    Perhaps they will disguise them as tall pagodas or church steeples!

  44. I work in a field where I get to speak to a large number of people, across the whole spectrum of Australians. What is interesting is that, “to a tee”, they all cringe when the topic turns to Tony Abbott.
    Me thinks that the possibility that this will be a one term wonder of a Government, is incredibly real.

  45. citizen

    Now that’s an idea. The Chinese are very good at faking things. We could have a whole city of wind turbines that looked like skyscrapers. That might pleaase Joe.

  47. lizzie

    [We could have a whole city of wind turbines that looked like skyscrapers. That might pleaase Joe]
    Make their towers look like Cuban cigars and Joe will be on board in a flash.

  48. Chinda

    Penny’s may be from Malaysia but she is still Chinese and I assume spoke Cantonese and or Manadarin at home (probably both).

    In Malaysia there are three major races and each uses their own language at home although Malay is the official language and English commonly used. Your average person of Chinese descent will speak four languages fluently Malay, English, Cantonese (or other dialect) plus Mandarin.

  50. A treasurer that considers Wind Turbines as an eyesore (whilst presumably coal-powered smoke stacks aren’t)’
    A PM who considers that Coal is a saviour to humanity, and boasts, during the G20, that one of his proudest achievements was to abolish carbon pricing, in the shadow of the worlds two largest economies coming to an historic agreement to dramatically reduce their carbon emissions.
    A government that is increasingly seen as beholden to a media organization that is rapidly seen as overtly biased and is losing credibility amongst its readership ( as reflected in its rapidly declining circulation).
    A Government that seemingly treats the populace as a pack of idiots.
    The voters are not as stupid as the Government treats them, they are able to see through the bullshyte, and if the people to whom I speak to, on a daily basis, for my job, are any guide, then the Abbott regime is gone.

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