A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and “others”. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:
• The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.
• Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.
• Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.
• Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.
Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.
[My only caveat is how desperate or not it was for the Koalas.]
Well there was a desperate need for the people of Queensland to retain a Labor government but they are just people not wildlife.
I love the way that cartoonists draw several things together.
Major party ‘preference deals’ should be seen by voters as arrogance, considering their poor form in governing in recent times.
I urge voters to consider preferencing a suitable Independent candidate at their upcoming ballots to show the majors that they must earn their votes in future.
Rex Douglas@553
Hear! Hear!
[Michael Pascoe @MichaelPascoe01 30 minutes ago
Oh dear, IPA’s Roskam says Republican election wins good for Oz cause their policies are closer to ours. No, spare yourself, don’t read it. ]
549
It will be interesting to see if any “on just terms” challenge to such a law (by persuading the High Court citizenship is property) succeeds
Picked by Gina for their productivity, obviously.
[Workers at Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project in Western Australia laughed at safety inspectors during an audit that found “clear breaches of safe work practise requirements” at parts of the site, documents show.
The audit documents, obtained by the ABC under freedom of information (FOI) laws, show some construction contractors refused to comply with safety standards and laughed at the concerns of inspectors from the Department of Mines and Petroleum (DMP).
Personnel laughing at genuine concerns were observed…a lack of understanding of legal obligations and requirements.
Mining inspectors.
Inspectors said contract construction workers had breached “safe work practise requirements” and had a “lack of commitment addressing occupational health and safety concerns”.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-06/roy-hill-personnel-in-safety-breaches/5872848
Pass it on, pass it on!!
[Emma Alberici @albericie 4 minutes ago
Travelling Dutch media contingent have been complaining about Australia’s “shockingly slow” internet speeds #justpassingthaton ]
[ Rex Douglas
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink
I urge voters to consider preferencing a suitable Independent candidate at their upcoming ballots to show the majors that they must earn their votes in future. ]
Well I doubt if your *urging* will change any opinions here on PB.
I doubt if many opinions have *ever* been changed here.
But get yourself a good pair of boots and hit the hustings – lets see how you go – I seem to recall Polls taken around the time of the last Federal Election indicating a majority of voters dislike minority governments and deals they need to make to be in Government.
I was alerted to the formation of this party today.
http://www.progressives.org.au/values
So Victoria Labor will make seat-by-seat decisions about whether their hatred of the Greens outweighs their hunger for government.
What could possibly go wrong?
Oh dear – FAIL Number One–
[•We seek to have a progressive and inclusive culture in every corner and crevice of the party..]
but…
[There are other members of the board who, due to their employment, can’t be publicly listed on the website. ]
[So Victoria Labor will make seat-by-seat decisions about whether their hatred of the Greens outweighs their hunger for government.]
Democracy’s a bitch isn’t it.
dave
A minority Govt is a true democratic Govt.
A parliament duopoly is as close to an undemocratic parliament as you can get.
During the election, I expect the ALP to attempt to maximize the Labor vote and elect Labor MPs.
I don’t get it Zoomster – what’s the fail there?
Daniel Andrews was up our way today.
Very sad – his father is dying of cancer and today was the auction to disperse the family farm.
Must be so difficult campaigning under these circumstances —
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2681173/victorian-state-election-2014-daniel-andrews-goes-home-to-wangaratta-and-the-family-farm/?cs=12
Nicholas
The Greens Party has brought this on themselves with their political belligerence and irresponsible attacks on the ALP left at the expense of an Abbott Govt.
tielec
it’s scarcely transparent to be unable to name the members of the Board.
[465
bemused
Andrews has learnt the lessons of the Gillard Govt and has ruled out any chance of a Greens supported minority Govt.]
And what, pray tell, will he then do if the voters hand him a parliament than requires a minority government?
Walk away from the core principle and practice of democracy – compromise?
Or do what Abbott has had to do, eat his stupid macho words, and get to negotiating?
What Andrews really should have said was that it is the voters’ choice and Labor will deal with whatever the voters hand them to deal with. A position nobody could take serious issue with.
zoomster
I’m sure Daniel Andrews is inspired by the thought of his fathers will for him to succeed.
Zoomster,
Where was the word transparent?
[ Rex Douglas
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
A minority Govt is a true democratic Govt.
A parliament duopoly is as close to an undemocratic parliament as you can get. ]
Polling indicates many voters dislike minority governments.
Your other comments may well be your view – but they just that.
Our system is representative Government BTW – if you don’t like it, you can campaign to change it – get those boots on and hit the streets door knocking etc.
dave
In all honesty our parliament duopoly is bought by, protected and serves big corporations.
Ah, I see – – I posted the wrong bit!
[We seek a healthy and vibrant democracy through the greatest possible transparency and openness in bureaucracy and governance.]
Rex
all very well, but the Australian voting populace basically decided they liked a duopoly back in the 1920s.
I have no objection to minority governments, as long as the BOP isn’t held by RWNJs or religious fanatics.
[ Rex Douglas
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 6:16 pm | Permalink
In all honesty our parliament duopoly is bought by, protected and serves big corporations. ]
Well if you feel so strongly about it – get in and do something about it – apart from bellyaching.
[ Yes they did due to his Asylum Seeker policy. Least evil alternative in his seat from their viewpoint was their public reason. ]
LoL, Greens complaining about not getting preference deals when they preferenced a Coal Billionaire ( who turns out to be an expert backflipper who helped scupper the Carbon Price ) over the ALP in 2013??
FFS sake people. Get over it an just let parties preference how they want seat by seat. And for Upper House, reform so the myriad micro parties dont get a look in by doing tight preference deals.
Zoomster,
That makes more sense – very transparent indeed.
[Polling indicates many voters dislike minority governments.]
Voters have no right to complain about such outcomes, because they are the ones who choose the composition of parliament.
Don’t like it? Don’t install a minority parliament.
It’s not rocket science.
Just Me@570
No deals with anyone.
See if he can get a vote of confidence in the house or if the Libs can.
Or let the Greens try if there are any. 😆
zoomster #576
Perhaps the populace were told by vested media to like a duopoly parliament back in the 20’s …?
[ I urge voters to consider preferencing a suitable Independent candidate at their upcoming ballots to show the majors that they must earn their votes in future. ]
Problem for most people is they have no idea who the indies on the ballot paper are and what they stand for. There are some quite superficially reasonable looking loonies run as indies so unless you do the research prior to the day, voting for them can be a bit suss.
Rex,
to quote the great Mitt Romney – “Corporations are people too!”
Re Prefs
Will Labor pref the Religious Right…Family First..ahead of the Greens in the Upper House where it could matter in re 5th places
The Religious Right /DLP in the ALP might like to see that and stop such moves as Euthenasia reform etc , on which the DLP/ALP Right share a similar view point
deblonay@586
Dopey questions as I expect you are well aware.
[ Just Me
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
Polling indicates many voters dislike minority governments.
Voters have no right to complain about such outcomes, because they are the ones who choose the composition of parliament. ]
Yes – Agreed.
Even those who fail to vote still want to moan about it all.
Viable independents normally have built up a strong and favourable reputation in their communities before entering Parliament, often on local councils. Ted Mack who I mentioned earlier was one such. We also have the occasional high profile identity from business, sport or the media. Or they may have started out in one if the major parties, like Windsor, Oakshott and Harradine, and took their following with them when they left.
For the record, I’m not one who is keen on general preference arrangements. IMO, ad hoc arrangements are fine. I can understand perfectly well why the ALP wouldn’t want rightwing voters they are pitching at to see them as in some way as in coalition with or like us. Also since they aren’t like us, this is perfectly reasonable.
We Greens also need to put distance between ourselves and them. This serves both parties’ interests rather better. I don’t feel at all miffed about them not preferencing us nor should they be bothered when we don’t preference them. As it goes, about 80% of people who give us their primary will give the ALP an effective preference.
In the vast majority of cases in the lower house, whether the ALP preferences us or not simply won’t make a difference, because we are going to be eliminated in the count before they are. In the handful of cases where that might not happen it’s unlikely the ALP would preference the LNP because their voters would be outraged, and probably ignore the direction en masse.
The upper house is more complex of course but if the ALP are silly and help get someone hostile elected, then of course, we can point this out whenever the numbers they want exceed by one the numbers they can get.
That all said, compulsory preferential voting is by definition, coerced voting and should be abolished. This would also have the consequence of reducing unintentional informal votes.
Does anyone know what Hawke actually said to Abbott?
[@davrosz Hawke gives Abbott a rocket for vindictive schoolboy prank of PM Office seating Gillard next 2 Rudd #auspol pic.twitter.com/ndj6iG1vpC”]
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeWayville/status/530292969161519104/photo/1
591
He was really complaining about being seated next to Keating.
Oh dear. It doesn’t take much digging to discover that some of those behind the Progressive Party are — shall we say? — just a little sus.
victoria
Don’t know what he said, but he poked Abbott in the chest a couple of times, and A thrust out his chin and AFAIK said nothing.
I’m surprised Brandis didn’t complain about being seated next to Shorten – or vice versa.
lizzie
Hawke is not too steady on his feet these days. He seemed rather fired up when facing up to the Abbott.
Anyhoo off to the shops. Talk later
Tom the first and best
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
591
[He was really complaining about being seated next to Keating.]
Lol!
[ victoria
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
Does anyone know what Hawke actually said to Abbott? ]
abbott had a ‘fcuk off’ look on his face at the time and it looks even worse in that twitter pic.
victoria@591
Rudd and Gillard should have been mature enough to just sit down and not let it worry them.
It seems one of them was.
It would have a good thing to see Abbott seated next to Gough