BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Newspoll drives a boost to Labor on the weekly poll aggregate, while newcomer Ipsos helps eliminate Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister.

A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and “others”. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:

• The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.

• Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.

• Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.

• Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.

Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 14
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  1. [Rudd and Gillard should have been mature enough to just sit down and not let it worry them.

    It seems one of them was.]

    Presumably the implication here is that Rudd – whose mad skills at just sitting down next to Gillard and not letting it worry him were memorably on display during the 2010 campaign – was just such a “mature enough” party, and that Gillard was not. I also think it pretty safe to presume that this contention, like every other thing you believe about Kevin Rudd, is entirely ungrounded from reality.

  2. Abbott was practicing for his ‘shirt front’ of Putin next week.

    Bob Hawke is starting to look a bit frail. Paul Keating isn’t looking that good either. He’s only 70.

  3. [593
    zoomster

    Oh dear. It doesn’t take much digging to discover that some of those behind the Progressive Party are — shall we say? — just a little sus.]

    I’d like more details from them about their policies, and themselves.

    ————–

    [Christine Phillips @cscviews 21h
    Nobody should underestimate Abbott’s capacity for the tawdry, vindictive or callous#auspol ]

    The core fact all enemies of Abbott must deal with.

    His sole political weapon – and it is a powerful one – is that he will always be prepared to dive further into the cesspit than you. And enjoy it.

  4. [I’d like more details from them about their policies, and themselves. ]

    Just discovered their biog page.

    Pay attention, JM.

  5. William Bowe@601

    Rudd and Gillard should have been mature enough to just sit down and not let it worry them.

    It seems one of them was.


    Presumably the implication here is that Rudd – whose mad skills at just sitting down next to Gillard and not letting it worry him were memorably on display during the 2010 campaign – was just such a “mature enough” party, and that Gillard was not. I also think it pretty safe to presume that this contention, like every other thing you believe about Kevin Rudd, is entirely ungrounded from reality.

    I see. So you have met both and formed your opinion?

    Or do you rely on PB?

  6. I’m not the one who just asserted, on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, and in defiance of all common sense, that Rudd was mature enough to just sit down next to Gillard and not let it worry him, and Gillard was not. What’s your basis for this assertion?

  7. William Bowe@608

    I’m not the one who just asserted, on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, and in defiance of all common sense, that Rudd was mature enough to just sit down next to Gillard and not let it worry him, and Gillard was not. What’s your basis for this assertion?

    On the basis of video I saw, Rudd was seated when Gillard arrived and didn’t seem too bothered. Gillard just stood there and refused to sit in the seat allocated.

    It took a couple of adults, Gough’s former driver and his wife, to resolve the situation by moving to provide a buffer between the two.

    Perhaps my eyes deceived me.

  8. Can’t say I blame Julia Gillard one bit for refusing to sit next to the treasonous selfish careerist Rudd who is the exact opposite of the true leader they were celebrating.

  9. No it hasn’t, haha!

    I just watched that video (I’ve just discovered I’m some kind of masochist). It could easily be interpreted as a pause caused by a line of 4 people standing in the aisle between her and her seat, some of who decided it was easier to shuffle down than bump knees.

    In any case, the video doesn’t provide any evidence for Rudd’s maturity as he was already sitting down and practically trapped in place. You’d have to be a mind reader to know what either was thinking.

  10. News from the Victorian campaign.

    [Well, it didn’t take long for the Liberals to spend up big.

    On Wednesday, households in Melbourne started receiving a very large, very expensive looking brochure in their mailbox.

    We know this is just the beginning.

    The Liberals are spending a massive amount of money to drown out our message and we need your help.

    Meanwhile, Daniel Andrews headed out this morning on our official campaign bus.

    As you can see from the picture above, we’ve made it pretty clear what an Andrews Labor government will do.

    But there’s a long way to go in this election campaign.

    Can you chip in $20 to help our supporters have the one-to-one conversations that Labor’s campaign is all about?

    Labor believes people come first. It’s the biggest difference between us and the Liberals.

    Can you donate today to help us tell the rest of Victoria?

    Yours

    Noah Carroll
    State Secretary and Campaign Director
    Victorian Labor Party]

  11. DisplayName@613

    No it hasn’t, haha!

    I just watched that video (I’ve just discovered I’m some kind of masochist). It could easily be interpreted as a pause caused by a line of 4 people standing in the aisle between her and her seat, some of who decided it was easier to shuffle down than bump knees.

    In any case, the video doesn’t provide any evidence for Rudd’s maturity as he was already sitting down and practically trapped in place. You’d have to be a mind reader to know what either was thinking.

    What he or she or anyone else was thinking doesn’t matter.

    What matters is that people behaved themselves appropriately with dignity at Gough’s memorial.

  12. Oh what’s this
    [… and not let it worry them.]
    I do believe it is a comment on a person’s state of mind from bemused, as brilliantly deduced from nothing whatsoever.

  13. Rudd is/was/never capable of considering anything not of his instigation of any worth. As a “colleague” once said of Rudd “we get rid of he arrogant little bastard using his own arrogance” Gillard proved she is of much better metal

  14. I’m completely unsurprised that those gossips that call themselves journalists would manufacture a conveniently idiotic narrative. Idiots will be idiots. Don’t fall for their crap, bemused.

  15. Joe Hockey is in “cranky” mode tonight.

    Now the ADF are leaners, apparently…

    [JOE Hockey has warned Jacqui Lambie “threats don’t work with this government” after the outspoken senator revealed she would reject all Coalition legislation unless the Australian Defence Force pay deal is improved.

    The Treasurer declared the government would not be “hamstrung” by the Palmer United Party crossbencher and said it would not reconsider the Remuneration Tribunal’s decision to give ADF personnel a below inflation annual pay increase of 1.5 per cent.

    “Threats don’t work with this government,” he said in Adelaide. “The deal has been struck. I wish we could pay our Defence Force more, I wish we could pay everyone more, but the money is not in the budget.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/joe-hockey-warns-jacqui-lambie-threats-dont-work-over-adf-pay/story-fn59nqld-1227115741974 ]

    When will Joe just STFU, stop digging and START GOVERNING?

  16. Having seen the video several times ..there is absolutely nothing to suggest any issue with either Julia ..or Rudd.

    Cannot believe the utter drivel spouted here and in the SMH ..about nothing. Julia looked relaxed and comfortable ..smiling and waving to someone ..and Rudd sat down.

    That’s it …nothing else ..at all.

  17. Ah. So Joe is hamstrung because of the Budget.

    Pity he isn’t the Treasurer or someone similarly responsible for drawing it up in the first place…oh, wait.

  18. Bushfire Bill

    Has his cranky pants on alright. Another headline from Joe today.

    [Weatherill is ‘biggest whinger’: Hockey ]

  19. 619

    When Hockey government says that “threats do not work with this government” he is really talking about threats made by this government, not threats made to this government.

  20. markjs@620

    Having seen the video several times ..there is absolutely nothing to suggest any issue with either Julia ..or Rudd.

    Cannot believe the utter drivel spouted here and in the SMH ..about nothing. Julia looked relaxed and comfortable ..smiling and waving to someone ..and Rudd sat down.

    That’s it …nothing else ..at all.

    Maybe my interpretation of it has been influenced by media comments.

  21. dave

    Well I doubt if your *urging* will change any opinions here on PB.

    I doubt if many opinions have *ever* been changed here.

    But get yourself a good pair of boots and hit the hustings – lets see how you go – I seem to recall Polls taken around the time of the last Federal Election indicating a majority of voters dislike minority governments and deals they need to make to be in Government.

    I think the idea around minority governments was rubbished by the media. Had it been Abbott that was picked to lead the government, the media would have been singing praises for it, I would assume.

    Also remember what the people thought of Gillard then. Now it seems they missed her when they realised what a shit-house this current administration is.

    Also the idea around independents are not always that they win seats. It’s that some of them make a big enough impact that their votes will spillover to the remaining major parties. In theory, the winning candidates should be doing their homework and figure out why voters went for those independents and seek to gain those votes.

  22. [Cannot believe the utter drivel spouted here and in the SMH ..about nothing. Julia looked relaxed and comfortable ..smiling and waving to someone ..and Rudd sat down.]

    What’s disturbing is that we currently have a first term govt still in its first year, or just thereafter with the PM having to fend off speculation about being replaced as leader. This is unprecedented in the time I’ve been old enough to engage with federal politics. Yet apart form the flurry of reportage in the wake of the Neilsen makeover poll, nowt about that.

    Yet the media want to obsess about seating arrangements at a memorial service for two former PMs in relation to an even more former PM.

    We are very poorly served by the media in this country.

  23. I think the issue with minority governments in Australia has been the lack of maturity of both the politicians and the media in handling the situations when they occur.

    The politicians (opposition politicians) try to make political mileage out of “chaos” and “dysfunction” – correctly identifying the public’s dislike of “chaos” and “dysfunction” – but being disingenuous as to the cause (a la Tony Abbott in the last parliament).

    And the media, here, play the political melodrama of minority government for all its worth as well.

    A bit more maturity from both the parties and the media would go a long way to accommodating minority/coalition governments.

    I can’t see that happening any time soon.

  24. [I’m not sure why people even bother defending him.]

    Absolutely. And furthermore I’m unsure as to why anyone would bother reporting his comments in that straight reporting way more deserving of weightier, valuable, newsworthy news instead of laughing outright and immediately consigning his remarks to the ‘Strange But True’ oddball section of the day’s news.

    I mean, Bernardi’s latest absurdity reported in the same way as X number of people die from Ebola is reported, or drive by shooting in western Sydney kills two is reported is just all kinds of wrong and misguided.

  25. [We Greens also need to put distance between ourselves and them. This serves both parties’ interests rather better. I don’t feel at all miffed about them not preferencing us nor should they be bothered when we don’t preference them. As it goes, about 80% of people who give us their primary will give the ALP an effective preference.]
    I figured out where you went wrong.

    No one gives a flying farq what the Greens think.

  26. When I first saw the Gillard/Rudd seating fiasco, it looked to me that Rudd and his daughter were already seated, and there was a spare seat next to Rudd.

    Gillard arrives on the scene, there is some discussion, and two people move down next to Rudd, and Gillard sits next to Tammie Fraser and Malcolm.

    It would not surprise that Abbott’s office was behind all this which is another demonstration of his vindictiveness and spitefulness towards his political opponents.

    Gillard and Rudd should just get on with life. They achieved a lot and will be remembered for it.

    I’m tired of reading about both of them.

  27. [Rudd’s daughter is a grown woman and should not have been there.

    One Rudd was enough thank you very much.]
    How do you know she wasn’t invited by the Whitlam family?

  28. The Greens Party has brought this on themselves with their political belligerence and irresponsible attacks on the ALP left at the expense of an Abbott Govt.

    I was furious with Christine Milne for publicly criticizing Julia Gillard’s handling of the carbon tax. The carbon tax was a successful policy which did a lot of good in two years and it deserved to continue for much longer. It was a joint achievement of Labor and the Greens. As such, Green parliamentarians and candidates have a duty to defend Labor’s role in it. It was disloyal of Christine Milne to throw Julia Gillard under the bus and it made her look petulant. Labor and the Greens are not coalition partners but they are allies in a broad policy sense and they need to behave amicably at the parliamentary and candidate levels.

    At the Poll Bludger level, however, it is healthy to air grievances, craft invective, and make constructive criticisms. 😉

  29. I read this a somewhat of a mea culpa from Lenore Taylor, commenting on Whitlam’s education reforms, today in The Guardian

    We all got the pointed significance when Cate Blanchett and Noel Pearson spoke about Whitlam’s transformative changes to education. But with so many distractions, temporary outrages and momentary scandals, it’s easy to get distracted from the big, complex processes under way, even though they will determine the policies that change lives with their enactment, and can change them just as decisively with their reversal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/07/our-salute-to-whitlam-was-excellent-but-what-about-his-legacy

  30. bemused

    [The Liberals are spending a massive amount of money to drown out our message and we need your help. ]

    An easy way to do this, at absolutely no cost to the ALP or anyone else is to send the LNP guff back, Return to Sender.

  31. Keyman …

    I doubt PMJG is of metal, better or not. 😉

    Perhaps you had ‘mettle’ in mind, assuming you’re not channelling the pre-18th century spelling.

  32. Dan Gulberry@639

    bemused

    The Liberals are spending a massive amount of money to drown out our message and we need your help.


    An easy way to do this, at absolutely no cost to the ALP or anyone else is to send the LNP guff back, Return to Sender.

    Even better with a carefully wrapped brick attached. 👿

  33. Internecine warring….what a tragedy…

    http://news.yahoo.com/kurds-help-islamic-militants-battle-kobani-173859253.html

    [BEIRUT (AP) — Ethnic Kurds are helping members of the Islamic State group in the battle for the key Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani, sharing their knowledge of the local terrain and language with the extremists, according to Iraqi and Kurdish officials.

    It is not clear how many Kurds are aiding the estimated 3,000 Islamic State militants in the Kobani area — and fighting against their own Kurdish brethren — but activists say they are playing a major role in the 7-week-old conflict near the Turkish border.

    A top military commander for the extremists in the town is an Iraqi Kurd, known by the nom de guerre of Abu Khattab al-Kurdi, helping them in the battle against fellow Kurds.]

  34. 641

    Does that still work?

    I am told that they had to change the reply paid rules in the USA after a protester got in national television in the USA and told people to protest the Vietnam War by sending a brick reply paid to Readers Digest.

  35. Tom the first and best@643

    641

    Does that still work?

    I am told that they had to change the reply paid rules in the USA after a protester got in national television in the USA and told people to protest the Vietnam War by sending a brick reply paid to Readers Digest.

    To be honest I have never tried it. Always wanted to but just never got around to it. 😆

  36. [I was furious with Christine Milne for publicly criticizing Julia Gillard’s handling of the carbon tax. The carbon tax was a successful policy which did a lot of good in two years and it deserved to continue for much longer. It was a joint achievement of Labor and the Greens. As such, Green parliamentarians and candidates have a duty to defend Labor’s role in it. ]

    You are the first Greens commenter here who has a) dissed Milne for her comments about Gillard and b) acknowledged the role the then Labor govt played in actually legislating carbon pricing.

  37. OMG! I wonder how the poor VIC Libs are coping with having to pay for their own promotional material for a change.

    Wankers. Chuck em out!

  38. [a) dissed Milne for her comments about Gillard and b) acknowledged the role the then Labor govt played in actually legislating carbon pricing.]

    Not so, Ive done b many times.
    I must say I must have missed a.

  39. Check this for dodgy: Abbott supporting a for-profit aged care home on public land in his electorate.

    Apparently he cant convince the local LNP its a good call:

    [Rank and file members of the Mosman and Balmoral branches will protest at the Liberal state conference on Saturday over what they see as a betrayal of long-term promises by Mr Abbott and other senior federal ministers to protect the heritage of the former Defence-owned site known as 10 Terminal.]

    Or even his own sister:

    [The decision of the trust to hand publicly owned land to an aged care operator has angered locals, including Mr Abbott’s sister, Jane Vincent.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tony-abbott-faces-liberal-revolt-over-middle-head-aged-care-home-20141107-11ism7.html#ixzz3IO4Cv29N

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