BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Newspoll drives a boost to Labor on the weekly poll aggregate, while newcomer Ipsos helps eliminate Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister.

A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and “others”. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:

• The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.

• Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.

• Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.

• Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.

Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  2. There’s a steep rise in the USD/fall in the AUD occurring tonight. The AUD has dropped nearly 1.8% over the last session to USD0.8582. This is said to mean support for the AUD has broken and to foreshadow further steps down. We’ll soon see. The currency is very near its low for the last 12 months, reached in January.

  3. Markets are buying the USD across the board, but in particular they are selling the AUD. Maybe the long bull run is over for Australia.

    The balance of trade data this week were not strong (net exports fell) and the estimates for the previous two months were also revised down while commodity prices continue to weaken.

    The ABS will publish its monthly labour market data today. It will be interesting to see if the recent falls in the number of employed persons is extended and, if so, by how many. The economy shed about 35,000 jobs in July and August while the rate of increase in the number of unemployed persons also ticked up.

    I also noted a report today of calls by Abbott to workers to accept reductions in their real wages:

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the Australia Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) have called for wage restraint and a prolonged period of real wage cuts, claiming that it vital to restore the economy’s competitiveness and combat rising unemployment. From The AFR: Tony Abbott has told the Commonwealth public sector it must exercise restraint and accept real wage cuts for the foreseeable future…the Prime Minister said the country could not afford to match wages with inflation until the budget was fixed…]

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/category/australian-economy/

    This is a tacit admission by Abbott that he has no answer to falling incomes. Rather than finding ways to restore income growth, Abbott seems prepared to accept lowered incomes and their corollaries, falling demand and employment.

  4. It’s all a bit late now. The high Aus dollar has pretty much destoyed Aus manufacturing. Labors offer for tax relief in exchange for a mining tax was oh so cleverly rejected by the peak bussiness bodies; so we are left with this. A liberal Goverment that couldn’t run a chicken coupe and a mining boom that is over.

  5. Morning all. Abbott’s attitude to PS wages (cuts will fix everything) is silly and is the opposite of what is needed. This explains why many serious analysts now think a stimulus i.e. More spending, is needed to avoid recession.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/australia-needs-stimulus-policies-to-avoid-recession-morgan-stanley-says-20141105-11h8e7.html

    The USA is now recovering, but we do not trade much with them. It is time to invest. The NBN, renewables and education would be good places to start, but Abbott does not like them. I could also mention public transport, but that is almost a swear word to this cabinet.

  7. Australian manufacturing has been dying for a long time – at least 20 years. That is not Abbott’s fault. What is his fault is that he is killing the new alternative industries such as by dumping the RET and strangling the NBN. We can’t all work in real estate and banking. There will be no money to bank.

    Have a good day all.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More than any other group of boosters this mob got what they deserved. Note the response about the abolition of the carbon tax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-losing-favour-with-business-community-20141105-11hf9r.html
    Mark Latham buckets the right wing commentators who quickly danced on Gough’s grave.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/critics_dance_on_gough_whitlam_grave_pJTHCQlgmDpAWH1Ovxdi8O
    How long will what looks like Kathy Jackson’s charade continue?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/civil-claim-against-kathy-jackson-postponed-due-to-mental-health-problems-20141105-11hff7.html
    Looks like a monster cock-up with Napthine’s underground rail line project.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fishermans-bend-rail-rerouting-runs-into-tower-projects-20141105-11hheb.html
    The Abbott government’s disrespect for the public service continues in spades.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/federal-public-servants-face-pay-rises-of-0-per-cent-or-worse-20141105-11h2di.html
    How far will Abbott go with superannuation changes?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2014/11/05/far-will-abbott-government-go-super-changes/
    Looks like Noel Pearson played a blinder at Gough’s memorial service.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/noel-pearsons-eulogy-for-gough-whitlam-in-full-20141105-11haeu.html
    A nice tribute to the memorial service from Peter FitzSimons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gough-whitlam-memorial-the-great-man-would-have-loved-it-20141105-11hapd.html
    Peter Wicks – Our government, masters of hypocrisy.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_rod_clement_dKTsVx4omRRhInyIOB7oFN
    More funny business from Campbell Newman?
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/here-we-joh-again-crime-and-corruption-with-campbell-newman-and-ken-levy,7068

  9. Section 2 . . .

    This CLP MP from the Northern Territory seems to have worked out Kevin Andrews pretty well!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-andrews-branded-pasty-faced-and-pooncy-by-nt-mp-kezia-purick-20141105-11h96z.html
    Alan Moir foresees a heavenly showdown.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope in the green room at Gough’s memorial service.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ouch! John Spooner at the 2015 National Press Club address.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    Ron Tandberg with Greg Hunt’s fatuous carbon capture efforts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe farewells Gough.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Rod Clements at the Oaks Day luncheon.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_rod_clement_dKTsVx4omRRhInyIOB7oFN

  10. Now the Libs “let’s change things again, it’s election time” attitude to Planning is having real consequences and holding up large projects.

    [Senior government sources say the transport bureaucracy has now in effect stopped work on the realigned tunnel scheme, hoping for the return of a Labor to government at the forthcoming poll so they can return to the earlier tunnel plan.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fishermans-bend-rail-rerouting-runs-into-tower-projects-20141105-11hheb.html#ixzz3IE44E0S0

  11. The Daily ToiletPaper has its entire front page festooned with a smiling Lying Friar under the Harbour Bridge. The accompanying story is how he will “push” to have the Badgery’s Creek airport named after Bradfield.

    Inside Andrew Bolt launches into the ABC for setting up Brandis with an audience of “moderate Muslims”.

  14. Morning all

    My inside info on the herald sun launching against the CFMEU is not exactly along the lines I was expecting today.

    I have ventured over to the Herald Sun and it appears there is a hate piece in Labor and the CFMEU by none other than Andrew bloody Bolt

  15. Victoria

    I was out yesterday and only just caught up with your link to the coverage of Gough’s memorial service. Thank you very much for that.

    I have lost count of the number of times you have responded immediately to requests I have made for various types of information. You are such an asset to this site.

  17. From the previous thread, a discussion about POTUS nominations where I commented that Democrats heavily draw on governors for candidates and TtFaB pointed out several former candidates who weren’t.

    Obviously it’s difficult to compare between the period before the primary system with after. The process is completely different and different candidates are likely to appeal.

    In the modern primary era since 1972 there have been 8 open contests (ie no sitting first term president renominating). Of these 8, governors have won 4, senators 2 and sitting or former VPs (who as it happens were former senators) 2.

  18. This is Abbott listening to Hawke. Note the jutting chin. As far as I saw it, the expression did not change from slightly aggressive throughout the exchange. Very defensive.

  19. I think it is too early to start speculating on the 2016 presidential race — I wouldn’t expect candidates to announce themselves until next year.

    It is certainly unhelpful for the Democratic side to start wargaming ‘purity’ candidates that are somehow supposedly morally or politically superior to Hillary Clinton — they did that in 2008 and look what happened.

    Enjoy the cold US winter and then let’s start observing who comes out of the woodwork to run.

  21. GG

    I gather that the media will give a running commentary on how bad unions are. In particular the CFMEU, and its “close ties” to team Labor and in particular Daniel Andrews.
    The irony is that the Herald Sun is widely read by construction workers! You gotta laugh

  23. [Some of the nation’s top scientists have warned short-term political fixes pose a threat to both the environment and the nation’s future prosperity.

    The first major report in more than a decade from the influential Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists suggests the Federal Government eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and provide tax breaks to landowners who work to protect threatened species and ecosystems.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-06/short-term-political-fixes-on-environment-pose-threat-to-future/5869696

  25. As per link above

    [By comparison, the victory was good news for Clinton’s as-yet unofficial bid for the White House. The Republican congress now becomes a foil for her to campaign against, and it may concentrate the support of Democrats keen to reinforce a strong front-runner rather than consider rivals in a primary campaign.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/election-night-elevates-a-republican-star-and-encourages-a-democratic-one-20141105-11hf06.html#ixzz3IEXyWdhQ

  26. Leadership rumblings?

    [Cease jockeying or face fall: PM

    DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR
    TONY Abbott has warned his cabinet not to take anything for granted and senior ministers have told colleagues to cease political jostling.]

  27. As per BK’s link. I cant believe how much of a rabble the Napthine govt is

    [Such was the rush, it appears the government had not considered the disruption its own scheme would cause.
    One of the major projects that may be affected is Lend Lease’s $1.5 billion Batman’s Hill residential and commercial project in Docklands.
    It involves decking over Docklands’ major through-road, Wurundjeri Way, under which the tunnel is expected to run en route to Fishermans Bend. The masterplan shows four large office buildings fronting Collins Street, the tallest two soaring 160 metres.
    The Age is aware that the government recently notified Lend Lease of possible impacts to the Batmans Hills project. Lend Lease would not comment and referred The Age to the government.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fishermans-bend-rail-rerouting-runs-into-tower-projects-20141105-11hheb.html#ixzz3IEYUnhbf

  28. From Mark Latham’s article. Gerard really is a kook.

    [Henderson said that praise of the former prime minister had made him unwell, forcing him to “lie on the floor with a wet towel on his forehead”.]

  29. Niki Savva offers some interesting advice in Murdoch’s Oz:

    [Memo to PM: Don’t hug Denis

    TONY Abbott is a drag on Coalition prospects in the Victorian election.]

  30. poroti

    I thought this was one of Latham’s better comments about the tories –

    [ Rhetorically, they claim to respect the institutions of family and democracy, but in moments of loss and personal tragedy, their true nature surfaces: displaying a subhuman meanness of spirit. ]

    Its not restricted situations of bereavement either….its in their DNA.

    pricks!

  31. Another Murdoch Oz offering – other sources including Murdoch’s own news.com.au point out that business is very unhappy with Abbott and Senate problems are a lesser order issue.

    [Senate saps business confidence

    ANNABEL HEPWORTH
    MOST company directors say the make-up of the Senate is undermining business and consumer confidence.]

  32. [Henderson said that praise of the former prime minister had made him unwell, forcing him to “lie on the floor with a wet towel on his forehead”.]

    Jesus. What is it with Gerard and drama.

  33. poroti

    [Henderson said that praise of the former prime minister had made him unwell, forcing him to “lie on the floor with a wet towel on his forehead”.]

    Good grief. Firstly, I don’t believe him — it’s clearly hyperbole. Secondly, if I did believe him, I’d say that he’s in serious need of professional counselling and ought not be allowed to be a public commentator until he is well. That his evident angst is so great as to foreclose his insight into how others would see this disclosure merely underlines why he needs to take a break from public commentary.

    Henderson appears to be the public discourse equivalent of road trauma. While it is the case that most people can’t resist rubbernecking at road trauma, most people know they shouldn’t.

  34. The US elections must put a shiver up a lot of spines. With a paltry 38% voting turnout, increasingly outrageous gerrymanders and voter suppression being perpetrated by Republican Governors, progressive dumbing down of the population and the prponderance of right wing money and influence and one can surmise that it will be a very, very long time before America can grow up.

  36. I really should be getting worried. For the third day in a row the advertising link under William’s commentary is from Morrison’s mob, written in Farsi (Iran) telling me to stay away from people smugglers. I posted about this matter a few days ago.

    Assuming the choice of advert is influenced by browsing history, to the best of my knowledge I have only looked at news reports on people smugglers or Iranians.

    Perhaps I should start researching wasps and spiders and see if a pest control advert appears tomorrow.

  38. citizen

    ‘My’ ad is far crueler. A reminder that after the election my area went from starting any minute to “dream on” status .

    [
    NBN In Your Area

    Experience the future. Check for NBN availability! ]

  40. BK

    [ The US elections must put a shiver up a lot of spines. With a paltry 38% voting turnout, increasingly outrageous gerrymanders and voter suppression being perpetrated by Republican Governors, progressive dumbing down of the population and the prponderance of right wing money and influence and one can surmise that it will be a very, very long time before America can grow up. ]

    Even more a concern as the tories here increasingly look towards the US as the model of the way to do things, be it IR, Medical Insurance, Education, the role of Government in general, deregulation and the rise and rise of electoral power by special interest groups.

    The big one of course being dividing the community when progressives are in power and calling for unity and so called mature debates when the reactionaries are in power.

    Government by Fox News – a description not too far off the mark.

  42. [ Perhaps I should start researching wasps and spiders and see if a pest control advert appears tomorrow. ]

    An alternative is an ad-block addon available for most browsers ?

  44. BTW – I’ve seen occasional speculation around the internet of George Clooney as a possible Democrate POTUS candidate ?

    May be nonsense, but stranger things have happened.

  46. dave@40

    BK

    The US elections must put a shiver up a lot of spines. With a paltry 38% voting turnout, increasingly outrageous gerrymanders and voter suppression being perpetrated by Republican Governors, progressive dumbing down of the population and the prponderance of right wing money and influence and one can surmise that it will be a very, very long time before America can grow up.


    Even more a concern as the tories here increasingly look towards the US as the model of the way to do things, be it IR, Medical Insurance, Education, the role of Government in general, deregulation and the rise and rise of electoral power by special interest groups.

    The big one of course being dividing the community when progressives are in power and calling for unity and so called mature debates when the reactionaries are in power.

    Government by Fox News – a description not too far off the mark.

    Since it appears State Governors set electoral boundaries and run voter suppression efforts, they should be the number one target of the Democrats. They are the path to ending gerrymanders and eliminating voter suppression.

  48. [ Steve777
    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Like an old Cowboy actor becoming President? ]

    Steve, Yes – the same bloke who tried to join the US Communist party way back when, but they rejected his application as they reckoned he was too dumb.

  49. Good morning

    BK

    For the reasons you outline the Democrats must win the next Presidential election. The GOP getting their Supreme Court will mean the end of what democracy is left in the US.

  50. [sprocket_

    The Daily ToiletPaper has its entire front page festooned with a smiling Lying Friar under the Harbour Bridge. The accompanying story is how he will “push” to have the Badgery’s Creek airport named after Bradfield.]

    There really is a very unhealthy relationship between Abbott, Baird and Murdoch’s Telegraph.

    The irony is that Bradfield was responsible for much suburban railway infrastructure in Sydney and the Sydney Harbour Bridge originally had four railway tracks as well as roadway. Abbott, with his anti public transport stance, would have told Bradfield to find another job.

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