Victorian election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat guide to the November 29 Victorian state election.

The 25-day period of the Victorian election campaign officially begins with today’s issue of the writs by the state’s Governor, Alex Chernov. To mark the occasion, I hit the button today on my guide to the Victorian election, on which you can read a paywalled introductory spiel (mostly to do with the impact of the redistribution) in today’s Crikey, and which you can access any time through the link on the sidebar. The guide encompasses reviews of each of the 88 lower house seats (a guide to the upper house region will follow in due course), which feature a number of very exciting new bells and whistles:

• Booth result maps are featured for each electorate, and rather than the crappy static images you’re used to, they’re embedded in Google Maps so you can zoom in and out, move around and toggle between map and satellite view. The maps show the new electoral boundaries as thicker blue lines, and the old boundaries as thinner red ones. Big up here to Ben Raue of The Tally Room, whose boundary data I’m using, and who deserves your donations.

• Beneath the maps you will find a series of bar charts, also embedded so if you roll the cursor over the bars you can see what the underlying numbers are. The first of these compares the 2010 election two-party results with a determination of how they electorate voted at the 2013 federal election. The latter calculations are slightly crude in that I haven’t gone to the effort of dividing up booths located near electorate boundaries, but fairly considerable trouble has been taken to account for both polling booth and declaration votes.

• There follows a series of demographic indicators, compiled from ABS census collection district data since their state electorate division results are only available pre-redistribution. These include “school leavers” (those who finished high school as a percentage of the 18-plus population), percentage of households where a mortgage is being paid, percentage of all persons who speak a language other than English (“LOTE”) in the home, and medians of weekly family income and age (or to be precise, weighted means of the medians in the census collection districts that constitute the electorate).

• Finally, at the bottom of the entry page you will find image maps for the metropolitan area and the rest of the state, so the electorate guides can be accessed by clicking on the map. Like so:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Victorian election guide”

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  1. OK now I can see concrete evidence of what is wrong with the Lonergan. The Others vote is a ludicrously high 11%. Others preferences heavily favoured the Greens in 2010 but there were only 4% of them and they were mostly Sex Party.

  2. 52

    Stephen Jolly, who ran last time is a Socialist councillor in Yarra, which mostly overlaps with Richmond District.

  3. So KB @ 51 – with a lower ‘others’ vote in Melbourne, you’d expect a tighter result than the 53-47 headline, assuming similar ALP and Green primaries?

  4. Update on the status of Labor Candidate for Bayswater. William lists Tony Dib as a Councillor in Maroondah. Last Monday he was elected Mayor for the new term of a year.

  5. Nick of Melbourne@54

    So KB @ 51 – with a lower ‘others’ vote in Melbourne, you’d expect a tighter result than the 53-47 headline, assuming similar ALP and Green primaries?

    If I just proportionally distribute 7 points from Others it only makes a slight difference. But I’d expect that those Others are actually soft supporters of major parties, Labor especially, and if that’s true then that makes a bigger difference, maybe bringing it down to about 51:49.

    It’s an academic exercise anyway because we have a poll by a pollster that’s known to be unreliable and because almost everyone overpolls the Green vote even when it’s not the Greens commissioning them.

  6. Thanks Kevin, sounds fair enough – and I understand your feelings about both Lonergan and all pollsters overestimating re green vote.

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