BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Newspoll drives a boost to Labor on the weekly poll aggregate, while newcomer Ipsos helps eliminate Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister.

A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and “others”. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:

• The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.

• Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.

• Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.

• Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.

Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Citizen
    Jeez I must be boring

    I am getting David Wiliamson’s play, ANZ, OHS training and cogeneration.

    Not a people smuggler in sight, nor even a gambling site.

    But SERIOUSLY citizen I would be a little concerned, in case you PC is being hacked. I WOULD do some searches on consumer topics and see if your ads change.

  2. citizen..

    It’s Abbott’s way of mocking Bradfield & his legacy..

    Bit like Samantha Maiden outrageously describing him as “Whitlamesque” yesterday..

  3. The US will go fascist before it goes truly democratic.

    The USA today is NOT a democracy, it is more of an oligopoly, and such “democracy” that it does have is very much on the Roman model, heavily skewed towards power and influence.

    It is NOT a long term sustainable model and the world should be starting to get a little concerned.

  4. The dollar continues to fall this morning while prices for IO, coking coal, steaming coal, gold and most base metals also fell. Prices for agricultural commodities were also mostly weaker.

    Generally, it’s an AUD and commodities rout.

    The AUD is at a 4-year low and IO at a 5-year low.

  5. On the ‘Whitlamesque’ comment from Maiden – it wouldn’t surprise me if Abbott viewed the boos he’s receiving in public as the equivalent of the boos Whitlam did – that it’s because he has vision and courage (not my opinion, I stress) and that history will vindicate him.

    Strangely, history isn’t as kind to wreckers as it is to builders.

  6. dtt

    I seriously cannot see why the US hasn’t fallen apart already. I suppose the strength of the dream and the belief of the populace that, whatever they happen to be experiencing, it’s The Best Country In The World to live in (coupled with a woeful understanding of what other countries are actually like) might explain it.

  7. Here’s another Abbott, a selfless 90 yo who was arrested for feeding the homeless in Fort Lauderdale.

    [Arnold Abbott handed out four plates of food to homeless people in a South Florida park. Then police stopped the 90-year-old from serving up another bite.

    “An officer said, ‘Drop that plate right now — like I had a weapon,'” Abbott said.

    Abbott and two pastors in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, were charged for feeding the homeless in public on Sunday, the city’s first crackdowns under a new ordinance banning public food sharing, CNN affiliate WPLG reported.

    Now they face possible jail time and a $500 fine, WPLG said.

    Despite some criticism from homeless advocates, city officials have vowed the new rules will be enforced…

    But Abbott, who has been helping feed homeless people in the area through his Love Thy Neighbor nonprofit since 1991, said authorities are targeting the city’s most vulnerable residents.

    “These are the poorest of the poor. They have nothing. They don’t have a roof over their head,” he said. “Who can turn them away?”…

    “I’m not afraid of jail. I’m not looking to go, but if I have to, I will,” he said.

    On Wednesday, Abbott said he’ll be at Fort Lauderdale Beach, ready to serve another meal.]

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/04/justice/florida-feeding-homeless-charges/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

  8. Citizen @ 50

    The irony is that Bradfield was responsible for much suburban railway infrastructure in Sydney and the Sydney Harbour Bridge originally had four railway tracks as well as roadway.

    In fact there were two rail tracks and two tram tracks. The tram tracks on the eastern side of the bridge became two extra road lanes after the tram system was closed in 1958.

  9. I see that the AFR (Stutchbury) is running a major campaign against Industry Super Funds (involved with unions donchya know!). All I know is that if I’ve got a choice betweeen investing my money in a fund with union officials on the board or finance industry players on the board, I know which one I’d prefer.

  10. It does sound very much as if the Mayor of Fort Lauderdale is reading from the same handbook as Abbott and Hockey —

    [“I’m not satisfied with having a cycle of homeless in the city of Fort Lauderdale,” Seiler said. “Providing them with a meal and keeping them in that cycle on the street is not productive.”]

    Stop starving to death in the streets, you layabouts!!!

  11. Thanks for the useful comments on ad blocking.

    Phew. At last the ad has changed.

    Unfortunately it’s a deliberately misleading ad, presumably from the Liberals in Victoria.

    The ad says “Labor Victoria. What will Labor do? Find out more here.”

    When you click on the link it goes to a website “badforvictoria.com.au” which is very anti-Labor.

    The website says “Authorised by Damien Mantach. 104 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000.” No mention of the Liberal Party.

  12. [ I seriously cannot see why the US hasn’t fallen apart already. I suppose the strength of the dream and the belief of the populace that, whatever they happen to be experiencing, it’s The Best Country In The World ]

    Lee Kwan Yew reckons their “High tolerance for inequality” is a factor.

    Another view is US citizens role has been reduced to that of consumers who are able to vote every two years if they are bothered and where special interests have long ago bought and paid for the outcomes they want and in most cases get.

    A far cry from the days when Theodore Roosevelt Republicans and then William Howard Taft etc were tearing down the various monopoly Trusts – banking, railways, steel etc.

  13. poroti

    [From Mark Latham’s article. Gerard really is a kook.

    Henderson said that praise of the former prime minister had made him unwell, forcing him to “lie on the floor with a wet towel on his forehead”.]

    Did he really say that?

    A disgusting little man with absolutely no class at all.

  14. Some good news from the US voting.

    @wisdomwatch: Fracking bans ↑ Texas oil-and-natural gas boomtown Denton votes down hydraulic fracturing. They know the drill.
    http://t.co/kVoYf0aBNg

    Also there was some areas that voted for aising the minimum wage

  15. [Greensborough Growler

    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Seems Julie Bishop is to be judged by her love life like Julia Gillard. It’s a balanced approach from our MSM. However, it’s still a terrible way to evaluate the merit and character of our female politicians.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/private-sydney/julie-bishops-new-boyfriend-revealed-as-david-panton-20141106-11hmq1.html

    We shouldn’t go near the private lives of politicians, male or female. Period.

  16. [Corio
    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 10:35 am | PERMALINK
    Citizen @ 50

    The irony is that Bradfield was responsible for much suburban railway infrastructure in Sydney and the Sydney Harbour Bridge originally had four railway tracks as well as roadway.

    In fact there were two rail tracks and two tram tracks. The tram tracks on the eastern side of the bridge became two extra road lanes after the tram system was closed in 1958.]

    Actually the tram tracks were designed by Bradfield as train tracks for a railway from the city to the northern beaches. That’s why the trams started at Wynyard underground train station.

    The trams were meant to be temporary users of the rail tracks but unfortunately the NSW Labor government was heavily influenced by the road lobby so those tracks became roadway and the rail line to the northern beaches was never built (and there are still no plans to build it).

  17. [Panton was previously in a relationship with his wife Karen]

    I suppose that normally follows but I will check the logic with Mrs Shellbell tonight.

  18. OK, we shouldn’t be interested in private lives and personalities, but we’re social beings, so we are. A thought – now I know the reason why JulieB changed her hairstyle from a helmet to a more windblown look = new hairstyle often means new relationship.

  19. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/iron-ore-traders-say-70-soon/

    [Morgan Stanley said this week that private iron ore traders in China expect oversupply will drive spot iron ore down further, to $US70 a tonne by the end of the year, and there is little upside to demand out of China. Iron ore financing in China also poses a big price risk.]

    The market will eventually settle back roughly where it started in real terms – at a level where the least efficient producer can just stay in business.

  20. [80
    guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: #BREAKING: The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.2% in the month of October #ausbiz”]

    Not as bad as I had been fearing.

  21. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cease-jockeying-or-face-electoral-fall-tony-abbott-tells-cabinet/story-fn59niix-1227114055427

    disunity is death. Viva desunion!!

    funniest thing in this article is news (to me) that andrews was a race caller! what of – snail races? He’s dullest bigot/zealot in a wig I’ve ever seen and I can’t imagine him ever speaking faster than his dull monotone. There’s something very creepy and untrustworthy about him.

  22. From the Shanahanrahan article quoted earlier:

    “Senior Victorian cabinet minister Kevin Andrews, a former race caller”

    Fark me dead! I just tried to imagine what that would sound like and now I think I need to lie on the floor with a wet towel on my forehead!

  23. How can you call the US mid-terms a Republican “wave” election when two thirds of the electorate didn’t show up? It wasn’t a case of the public clamouring for Republican control of Congress. It was conservatives enjoying a large advantage from meagre turn-out.

    I think it’s good that Barack Obama did not mope and don the hairshirt in his press conference after the election. He put the election in its proper context: widespread public disillusionment in politics. He remained positive about his policies and his responsibilities as president.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/11/5/7163771/obama-2014-press-conference

  24. [73
    adam abdool

    We shouldn’t go near the private lives of politicians, male or female. Period.]

    Provided they are not acting in a hypocritical or illegal manner.

  25. [83
    lizzie

    Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 53s53 seconds ago
    Growth in hours worked also keeps falling pic.twitter.com/lWfmCOFl8j ]

    This is the single best indicator of labour demand, imho. “Baseload” labour demand has not be sufficient to absorb the increase in labour supply and there’s no sign the Government have any idea how to respond to this.

  26. lizzie @ 79
    Still so easy to blame politicians.

    <rant>
    The media are supposed to facilitate discussion, perhaps instead of spending so much time complaining about other people (who are naturally far from perfect) they should consider how they might be better facilitators – not that some complaining isn’t warranted.

    If I were a journalist, I would ask myself this question, “how can I extract – and present to my audience – a sensible discussion from/in a noisy environment”. What tools do I need? What tools can I provide?

    Politicians are told there’s no point railing at a media they can’t control – often put (at different times correctly or incorrectly) as “shooting the messenger”. Perhaps those in the media should think about what they can do in their job, with the things they can control, rather than railing about the things they can’t – and spend more time discussing the content of the information provided rather than people providing the content.

    They could even learn from WB who is currently expending considerable effort working out how to combine, extract and present usable information from various sources, or from some of the things Antony Green has constructed. They need to take their little embedded widgets further than they have.

    The problem is that when such things arise, they are usually for specialised purposes (as with those widgets, WB’s or AG’s work). Where are the ideas from more general purpose professional facilitators? Look at most (all?) media web sites. They are copies of dead tree products. They’ve been much the same way for a decade (decades?). Or take Sale’s and Crabbe’s recent experiment. It’s a foray into rehashing the same old through a different medium.
    </rant>

  27. WHO has published their latest Situation Report (5 Nov).

    [SUMMARY

    A total of 13 042 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 2 November. There have been 4818 reported deaths.

    The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively.
    At the country level, the weekly incidence appears to be stable in Guinea. In Sierra Leone the weekly incidence continues to rise, while in Liberia it appears to be declining. In all three countries, EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread, particularly in the capital cities. All administrative districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone have reported at least 1 confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported in this outbreak.]

  28. I suppose youse’ve all seen this, top of the SMH on-line front page, by Mark Latham.

    But if you haven’t, it sums up like this:

    For many years, in and outside Parliament, I gave Howard both barrels. A repeat dose at the time of his passing would be a sign of OPD: obsessive political disorder.

    Even worse, it would raise the spectre of that most horrible thought in life: being like Andrew Bolt.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/critics-display-meanness-of-spirit-on-whitlams-death-20141106-11hq8n.html#ixzz3IFU95rT1

    As they say, it’s a rollicking good read from the ex-member for Werriwa.

  29. I just had a chance to watch Noel Pearson’s tribute to Whitlam.

    Wow. What a fantastic oration. I’ll play it to my son when he is old enough to understand.

  30. BB:

    [I suppose youse’ve all seen this, top of the SMH on-line front page, by Mark Latham.]

    I was particularly taken by this imagery:

    Like a gang of skinheads kicking over tombstones, Gerard Henderson, Greg Sheridan, Miranda Devine and Rowan Dean also rushed into print, vilifying Whitlam within days of his death.

    Noice work, Mark.

  31. Changes in retrospective reporting has resulted in an apparent reduction in cases…

    [Data are based on official information reported by ministries of health. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results.

    The fewer cases reported this week compared with the Situation Report of 29 October is due to a change in the use of data sources. In this report, the cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths nationally (table 1) and by district (figures 1-3) are identical to those presented in situation reports compiled by ministries of health and WHO country offices. Previously, these totals were derived from a combination of patient databases and country situation reports. The revised approach unifies the totals presented in this report with those given in national reports.]

    It’s obviously proving to be quite difficult to assemble data that is both timely and accurate…

  32. briefly,

    [The dollar continues to fall this morning while prices for IO, coking coal, steaming coal, gold and most base metals also fell. Prices for agricultural commodities were also mostly weaker.

    Generally, it’s an AUD and commodities rout.

    The AUD is at a 4-year low and IO at a 5-year low.]

    It’s a rout all right. Hope you all hedged this likelihood with some USD-AUD ETFs, that a large portion of your superannuation in invested in overseas bonds and equities, or that your business’ invoice in USD 😉

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