A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and others. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:
The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.
Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.
Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.
Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.
Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.
So I see the ACDC drummer has been charged with procuring a murder of all things.
With Malcom Young out of the band surely they should just call it a day.
I thought that Faulkner’s speech was a real call to arms.
Henry
Here is report
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/music/acdc-drummer-phil-rudd-gets-charged-with-attempting-to-procure-a-murder-20141106-11hs1u.html
[lizzie
Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 1:05 pm | Permalink
I thought that Faulkner’s speech was a real call to arms.]
It was, lizzie, and the number of times he said Gough was a Labor man with Labor values and a Labor PM.
Sometimes, I just wonder if I will ever see another Whitlam, or a Keating as PM?
Dave,
[A far cry from the days when Theodore Roosevelt Republicans and then William Howard Taft etc were tearing down the various monopoly Trusts – banking, railways, steel etc.]
As did Woodrow Wilson after them.
I bring this up for purely vain reasons, to point out my family connections to a POTUSA: My Dad’s mother was the daughter of cousin of Wilson’s wife, Ellen Axson.
[100
Libertarian Unionist]
LU, the industry in which I’ve been working is being driven towards extinction by the twin effects of market closure and excess investment/production in other countries and, for a special twist, by the effects of climate change on resource volumes/quality in this country.
So far, the price falls for raw materials range from around 50% to more than 90% and much formerly profitable production has already ceased completely. This means that some raw material suppliers face a complete and possibly permanent loss of market. It’s a bust of depression-like dimensions, though the industry is only small in the scheme of things.
So while I would have hedged my sales, these have dropped by more than 90% this year. Fortunately I haven’t hedged anything I would be facing losses for failure to deliver my forwards.
Several of my competitors have been closed by their owners and the largest is in receivership. We expect a further 50% closure rate among remaining firms. I will be one of them. My business will close in the near future…luckily, I have some other work to go to.
briefly:
That sounds like an impossible market situation. There’s no shame in knowing when to call it quits. Best of luck with your future endeavours.
[107
Libertarian Unionist]
I’ve kept all my promises…that’s the only consolation. The situation is what it is and there’s no use complaining about it.
I have some other interesting things to do commencing in about a month. I’m looking forward to new things.
ACDC drummer charged with procuring murder? I guess he was just looking for dirty deeds done dirt cheap.
Should have used TNT perhaps Jolyon…
Thanks for the link victoria.
Henry
No worries
[Courtney @C_L02 13 minutes ago
After cutting over 3000 staff in bulk since last year, the ATO is now asking for help from privateers.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/australian-tax-office-calls-in-the-debt-collectors-20141106-11hpcc.html … ]
😉
Much like when Howard gutted the public service we will no doubt see again a boom in the consulting industry as everything becomes outsourced.
Employment numbers paints a bleak picture
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/employment-to-population-ratio-paints-a-bleak-jobs-picture-20141106-11hsye.html
BK
They’ve had years prior to this and will have years to go after this. Why pick the time around his death to mention all the shortcomings of his administration?
Henry
[Should have used TNT perhaps Jolyon…]
Yep!. I guess we will just have to wait for the mandatory jail-break.
[ I’m looking forward to new things.]
I bet!
victoria@21
They’ll probably skip to the sports pages, and among the male workers, some will flip through to see the picture of women and skip through most of the political commentary.
However, I’m sure the Hun have refined the art of attractive negative headlines and pour scorn into the minds of those who don’t read much such as “BOWSER BANDIT” and “ALCOPOP TAX” and “CARBON TAX WILL HIT YOUR HIP POCKET!”
[Mark Latham buckets the right wing commentators who quickly danced on Gough’s grave.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/critics_dance_on_gough_whitlam_grave_pJTHCQl%5D
to paraphrase Latham:
Among life’s most reliable performance indicators, when Mark Latham has go at something loopy and insensitive you’ve done or written, you know you’ve got a problem.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Laughing at the part here where Hawke called Fraser a leftist.
This from liberal-populist gadfly Russell Brand:
[Polls show Americans have elected the party they like least to run the government body they least trust.]
Raaraa
[Laughing at the part here where Hawke called Fraser a leftist.]
Funny on more than one ground … 😉
Last scheduled spam post for:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/poll-roundup-two-steps-forward-one-step.html
Poll Roundup: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
My aggregate: 52.2 to ALP (highest in 12 weeks)
This is the first time for seven weeks that BludgerTrack has been above mine for Labor but it’s really just because I included Ipsos (albeit on a trainer-wheels rating), without which mine would be 52.5 to ALP.
Phantom Trend (http://www.phantomtrend.com/) has 52.0.
citizen@60
Looks like one way of getting rid of poverty is to ban it.
Seems the ALP are consistently and solidly ahead on the polling at around 51/52 ALP to 49/48 Coalition.
Been that way for long enough now that Abbott is having to hose down leadersh$t manuvering in his own cabinet. Seems like Bishop is coming after Tony’s balls. With Hockey out of the race since the party cut his off by making him the point man in their Budget suicide minefield crossing.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cease-jockeying-or-face-electoral-fall-tony-abbott-tells-cabinet/story-fn59niix-1227114055427
That has to be a worry for the Coalition strategists. They get the odd respite when something of significance happens overseas but every time the focus ISN’T on overseas matters and people start discussing domestic things they lose ground.
And they STILL haven’t gotten the major revenue measures from their Budget through. Its now November FFS!! MYEFO is just about due!!
sf 119 – I just read that. Only Latham really had the guts to say what many have been thinking.
Nicholas@88
Correct me if I’m wrong. Isn’t only the Senate that has only 1/3 of the seat up for election, but nearly every House seat is being decided?
Fran Barlow@122
I know 😀
Some very bitter, narrow minded, petty comments from the right wing regarding Gough’s legacy and Noel’s speech.
They only reinforce why I despise the right so much
perthnow site
As much as I admire much of the US political system (their parliamentary debate and voting across party lines leaves our system for dead), the US half term elections are a strange system – it basically means they are always in election mode – with elections every 2 years, and can leave the president with hostile parliaments. they also have that weird thing with the president not assuming office until 2 months after being elected.
Its now November FFS!! MYEFO is just about due!!
It will be the fault of;
Labor
ISIS
Putin
Ebola
Boats
[
Some very bitter, narrow minded, petty comments from the right wing regarding Gough’s legacy and Noel’s speech.
]
The irony of it all; focusing on Gough’s legacy reminded us all just how petty the right has become; the best they could do was to be silent; but being as petty as they are they couldn’t even do that.
127
A third of the Senate was up but the whole House was because they only have 2 year terms.
Remember, this is the “no excuses” government.
[
Jackol
Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 3:08 pm | Permalink
Remember, this is the “no excuses” government.
]
They are; have you heard them once admit they have stuffed up. No stuff up conceded no excuse needed.
130
The cross-party voting is not always such a good thing. It makes reform harder, it makes corruption easier and reduces the value of parties as a tool for voters to know who they are voting for.
There is nothing to recommend mid-term elections. The terms are too short and it creates too much obstruction of government function, which is exactly what is was designed to do.
[Its now November FFS!! MYEFO is just about due!!
It will be the fault of;
Labor
ISIS
Putin
Ebola
Boats]
Don’t forget pink batts
I’m very encouraged to see the adjustments for house bias being made – good work.
I also predict more bias adjustments in the same direction in future.
LU
[ My Dad’s mother was the daughter of cousin of Wilson’s wife, Ellen Axson. ]
🙂
Sustainable future@130
You surely jest!
What is there to admire in the US System?
You cite voting across party lines. Well thanks, but no thanks. When I vote for a representative of a party, I want them to adhere to that party’s policies and principles, not indulge themselves in some personal frolic.
140
Hear, hear!
Jolyon Wagg @109
Boom Tish 😆 If he was a kiwi it would be ……….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHuMpb9bjSY
Raara
Yes, all House seats are up for election every two years. Senate terms are six years so every two years about a third of the seats are up for election.
I think it would be better if the House, Senate, and the President all had four year terms and were all elected simultaneously. The high visibility and energy of the presidential race would maximize turn-out, so the results would better reflect the public’s views and legitimacy of the government would be improved.
Americans don’t like their current system but they aren’t exactly stretching their imaginative powers to create alternatives.
bemused @ 140
While I think it’s fair to ask that the people who represent you form effective strategies to maximise outcomes – of which alliances in parties is one – party boundaries are why we can have majority support for something in parliament and yet have it fail to pass.
Action on climate change being an example.
Ah well, feral Teabagger’s in the US. 🙁
[ Over the weekend Senator Cruz said he believed the new Congress’ first order of business should not be work with the White House to break the gridlock, but launch hearings into the Obama Administration, “looking at the abuse of power, the executive abuse, the regulatory abuse, the lawlessness that sadly has pervaded this administration.” ]
We have Royal Commissions, they have Hearings.
I don’t have a problem with the Senate having longer terms and creating some political inertia in the system, but yes the Senate, Reps and President should all be up for election at the same time, even if the Senate is, eg, elected for 8 years in 2 shifts.
But it’s the Americans that have to really want to fix their system.
DisplayName@144
No system is perfect.
bemused @ 147
Exactly :P.
[I think it would be better if the House, Senate, and the President all had four year terms and were all elected simultaneously. The high visibility and energy of the presidential race would maximize turn-out, so the results would better reflect the public’s views and legitimacy of the government would be improved.]
I don’t like fixed terms. Just look at the deadlock between the House and Senate in the US, or at Napthine and Geoff Shaw in Victoria. The system has to be able to do *something* to break a deadlock if the parliament has failed, not just crawl along until the end of the term.
That said, I don’t know how it would work with the separate elections for Congress and the President.
Turns out there was an error in my BludgerTrack calculation, which was causing the Labor 2PP to land 0.4% high, and giving them an extra seat in Queensland. This is now corrected.