BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Newspoll drives a boost to Labor on the weekly poll aggregate, while newcomer Ipsos helps eliminate Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister.

A solid move on BludgerTrack this week, as the Labor primary vote spikes 0.9% at the expense of the Coalition and “others”. This translates to a 0.7% lift on two-party preferred and a gain of three on the seat projection, including one each from New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a loss in Queensland (NOTE: This post originally gave Labor an extra 0.4% two-party preferred as well as an extra seat; this was based on an error which has now been fixed). Picking that apart:

• The model does not presently grant any weight to Ipsos, except in calculating the state totals and the leadership ratings, as it’s only with the publication of a second result that the model will have something to benchmark it against. This has the unfortunate effect of depriving the current BludgerTrack reading of what’s probably a strong result for the Coalition, perhaps causing it to lean a little more Labor than it should. That’s unless a Coalition lean proves to be a consistent feature of Ipsos, in which case it will be bias-adjusted accordingly. However, this certainly wasn’t evident in its Victorian state poll.

• Poll watchers have been looking askance at Newspoll’s two-party numbers recently, which have consistently been putting Labor a percentage point ahead of what the primary vote numbers would lead you to expect. Since BludgerTrack dispenses with pollsters’ two-party preferred calculations and determines its own after generating the primary vote numbers, Labor’s strong Newspoll showing has been making a less of an impression than some might expect.

• Morgan reverted to type in its latest fortnightly result after successive polls showed the Coalition in its strongest position since February, producing strong Coalition data points after the bias adjustment was applied. This time out, it’s back in the middle somewhere. A re-evaluation of Morgan’s performance this term caused me to very slightly amend its bias adjustment about 0.2% to Labor’s advantage.

• Essential Research has been a little counter-cyclical, nudging Labor downwards slightly where elsewhere they have edged up. Its bias adjustments, which had been factoring in a lean to Labor, are progressively moderating to accommodate the trend.

Ipsos provides a welcome new addition to the leadership ratings game, and early indications are that it has inherited Nielsen’s peculiarly low uncommitted ratings. The BludgerTrack aggregates eliminate such distinctions, and Ipsos combined with the Newspoll result causes Tony Abbott’s preferred prime minister lead to all but disappear, down from 3.1% to 0.7%. Abbott is also down 1.8% on net approval to minus 12.2%, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 4.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. So I see the ACDC drummer has been charged with procuring a murder of all things.
    With Malcom Young out of the band surely they should just call it a day.

  2. [lizzie

    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    I thought that Faulkner’s speech was a real call to arms.]

    It was, lizzie, and the number of times he said Gough was a Labor man with Labor values and a Labor PM.

    Sometimes, I just wonder if I will ever see another Whitlam, or a Keating as PM?

  3. Dave,

    [A far cry from the days when Theodore Roosevelt Republicans and then William Howard Taft etc were tearing down the various monopoly Trusts – banking, railways, steel etc.]

    As did Woodrow Wilson after them.

    I bring this up for purely vain reasons, to point out my family connections to a POTUSA: My Dad’s mother was the daughter of cousin of Wilson’s wife, Ellen Axson.

  4. [100
    Libertarian Unionist]

    LU, the industry in which I’ve been working is being driven towards extinction by the twin effects of market closure and excess investment/production in other countries and, for a special twist, by the effects of climate change on resource volumes/quality in this country.

    So far, the price falls for raw materials range from around 50% to more than 90% and much formerly profitable production has already ceased completely. This means that some raw material suppliers face a complete and possibly permanent loss of market. It’s a bust of depression-like dimensions, though the industry is only small in the scheme of things.

    So while I would have hedged my sales, these have dropped by more than 90% this year. Fortunately I haven’t hedged anything I would be facing losses for failure to deliver my forwards.

    Several of my competitors have been closed by their owners and the largest is in receivership. We expect a further 50% closure rate among remaining firms. I will be one of them. My business will close in the near future…luckily, I have some other work to go to.

  5. briefly:

    That sounds like an impossible market situation. There’s no shame in knowing when to call it quits. Best of luck with your future endeavours.

  6. [107
    Libertarian Unionist]

    I’ve kept all my promises…that’s the only consolation. The situation is what it is and there’s no use complaining about it.

    I have some other interesting things to do commencing in about a month. I’m looking forward to new things.

  7. Much like when Howard gutted the public service we will no doubt see again a boom in the consulting industry as everything becomes outsourced.

  8. victoria@21

    GG

    I gather that the media will give a running commentary on how bad unions are. In particular the CFMEU, and its “close ties” to team Labor and in particular Daniel Andrews.
    The irony is that the Herald Sun is widely read by construction workers! You gotta laugh

    They’ll probably skip to the sports pages, and among the male workers, some will flip through to see the picture of women and skip through most of the political commentary.

    However, I’m sure the Hun have refined the art of attractive negative headlines and pour scorn into the minds of those who don’t read much such as “BOWSER BANDIT” and “ALCOPOP TAX” and “CARBON TAX WILL HIT YOUR HIP POCKET!”

  9. This from liberal-populist gadfly Russell Brand:

    [Polls show Americans have elected the party they like least to run the government body they least trust.]

  10. Last scheduled spam post for:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/poll-roundup-two-steps-forward-one-step.html

    Poll Roundup: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
    My aggregate: 52.2 to ALP (highest in 12 weeks)

    This is the first time for seven weeks that BludgerTrack has been above mine for Labor but it’s really just because I included Ipsos (albeit on a trainer-wheels rating), without which mine would be 52.5 to ALP.

    Phantom Trend (http://www.phantomtrend.com/) has 52.0.

  11. citizen@60

    Here’s another Abbott, a selfless 90 yo who was arrested for feeding the homeless in Fort Lauderdale.

    Arnold Abbott handed out four plates of food to homeless people in a South Florida park. Then police stopped the 90-year-old from serving up another bite.

    “An officer said, ‘Drop that plate right now — like I had a weapon,'” Abbott said.

    Abbott and two pastors in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, were charged for feeding the homeless in public on Sunday, the city’s first crackdowns under a new ordinance banning public food sharing, CNN affiliate WPLG reported.

    Now they face possible jail time and a $500 fine, WPLG said.

    Despite some criticism from homeless advocates, city officials have vowed the new rules will be enforced…

    But Abbott, who has been helping feed homeless people in the area through his Love Thy Neighbor nonprofit since 1991, said authorities are targeting the city’s most vulnerable residents.

    “These are the poorest of the poor. They have nothing. They don’t have a roof over their head,” he said. “Who can turn them away?”…

    “I’m not afraid of jail. I’m not looking to go, but if I have to, I will,” he said.

    On Wednesday, Abbott said he’ll be at Fort Lauderdale Beach, ready to serve another meal.


    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/04/justice/florida-feeding-homeless-charges/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

    Looks like one way of getting rid of poverty is to ban it.

  12. Seems the ALP are consistently and solidly ahead on the polling at around 51/52 ALP to 49/48 Coalition.

    Been that way for long enough now that Abbott is having to hose down leadersh$t manuvering in his own cabinet. Seems like Bishop is coming after Tony’s balls. With Hockey out of the race since the party cut his off by making him the point man in their Budget suicide minefield crossing.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cease-jockeying-or-face-electoral-fall-tony-abbott-tells-cabinet/story-fn59niix-1227114055427

    That has to be a worry for the Coalition strategists. They get the odd respite when something of significance happens overseas but every time the focus ISN’T on overseas matters and people start discussing domestic things they lose ground.

    And they STILL haven’t gotten the major revenue measures from their Budget through. Its now November FFS!! MYEFO is just about due!!

  13. Nicholas@88

    How can you call the US mid-terms a Republican “wave” election when two thirds of the electorate didn’t show up? It wasn’t a case of the public clamouring for Republican control of Congress. It was conservatives enjoying a large advantage from meagre turn-out.

    I think it’s good that Barack Obama did not mope and don the hairshirt in his press conference after the election. He put the election in its proper context: widespread public disillusionment in politics. He remained positive about his policies and his responsibilities as president.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/11/5/7163771/obama-2014-press-conference

    Correct me if I’m wrong. Isn’t only the Senate that has only 1/3 of the seat up for election, but nearly every House seat is being decided?

  14. Some very bitter, narrow minded, petty comments from the right wing regarding Gough’s legacy and Noel’s speech.

    They only reinforce why I despise the right so much

    perthnow site

  15. As much as I admire much of the US political system (their parliamentary debate and voting across party lines leaves our system for dead), the US half term elections are a strange system – it basically means they are always in election mode – with elections every 2 years, and can leave the president with hostile parliaments. they also have that weird thing with the president not assuming office until 2 months after being elected.

  16. [
    Some very bitter, narrow minded, petty comments from the right wing regarding Gough’s legacy and Noel’s speech.
    ]
    The irony of it all; focusing on Gough’s legacy reminded us all just how petty the right has become; the best they could do was to be silent; but being as petty as they are they couldn’t even do that.

  17. [
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Remember, this is the “no excuses” government.
    ]
    They are; have you heard them once admit they have stuffed up. No stuff up conceded no excuse needed.

  18. 130

    The cross-party voting is not always such a good thing. It makes reform harder, it makes corruption easier and reduces the value of parties as a tool for voters to know who they are voting for.

    There is nothing to recommend mid-term elections. The terms are too short and it creates too much obstruction of government function, which is exactly what is was designed to do.

  19. [Its now November FFS!! MYEFO is just about due!!

    It will be the fault of;

    Labor
    ISIS
    Putin
    Ebola
    Boats]

    Don’t forget pink batts

  20. I’m very encouraged to see the adjustments for house bias being made – good work.

    I also predict more bias adjustments in the same direction in future.

  21. Sustainable future@130

    As much as I admire much of the US political system (their parliamentary debate and voting across party lines leaves our system for dead), the US half term elections are a strange system – it basically means they are always in election mode – with elections every 2 years, and can leave the president with hostile parliaments. they also have that weird thing with the president not assuming office until 2 months after being elected.

    You surely jest!

    What is there to admire in the US System?

    You cite voting across party lines. Well thanks, but no thanks. When I vote for a representative of a party, I want them to adhere to that party’s policies and principles, not indulge themselves in some personal frolic.

  22. Raara

    Yes, all House seats are up for election every two years. Senate terms are six years so every two years about a third of the seats are up for election.

    I think it would be better if the House, Senate, and the President all had four year terms and were all elected simultaneously. The high visibility and energy of the presidential race would maximize turn-out, so the results would better reflect the public’s views and legitimacy of the government would be improved.

    Americans don’t like their current system but they aren’t exactly stretching their imaginative powers to create alternatives.

  23. bemused @ 140
    While I think it’s fair to ask that the people who represent you form effective strategies to maximise outcomes – of which alliances in parties is one – party boundaries are why we can have majority support for something in parliament and yet have it fail to pass.

    Action on climate change being an example.

  24. Ah well, feral Teabagger’s in the US. 🙁

    [ Over the weekend Senator Cruz said he believed the new Congress’ first order of business should not be work with the White House to break the gridlock, but launch hearings into the Obama Administration, “looking at the abuse of power, the executive abuse, the regulatory abuse, the lawlessness that sadly has pervaded this administration.” ]

    We have Royal Commissions, they have Hearings.

  25. I don’t have a problem with the Senate having longer terms and creating some political inertia in the system, but yes the Senate, Reps and President should all be up for election at the same time, even if the Senate is, eg, elected for 8 years in 2 shifts.

    But it’s the Americans that have to really want to fix their system.

  26. DisplayName@144

    bemused @ 140
    While I think it’s fair to ask that the people who represent you form effective strategies to maximise outcomes – of which alliances in parties is one – party boundaries are why we can have majority support for something in parliament and yet have it fail to pass.

    Action on climate change being an example.

    No system is perfect.

  27. [I think it would be better if the House, Senate, and the President all had four year terms and were all elected simultaneously. The high visibility and energy of the presidential race would maximize turn-out, so the results would better reflect the public’s views and legitimacy of the government would be improved.]

    I don’t like fixed terms. Just look at the deadlock between the House and Senate in the US, or at Napthine and Geoff Shaw in Victoria. The system has to be able to do *something* to break a deadlock if the parliament has failed, not just crawl along until the end of the term.

    That said, I don’t know how it would work with the separate elections for Congress and the President.

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