Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll records a delicate shift to the Coalition on voting intention, weakening climate change skepticism, and a rather tough-minded attitude on freedoms and national security.

Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate ticks a point to the Coalition this week, putting Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. The only change on the primary vote is a one point gain for the Coalition to 40%, with the balance being lost in rounding. This leaves Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%.

Also:

• The poll finds a decline in climate change skepticism, with 56% attributing climate change to human activity and 30% to normal fluctuation, respectively the equal highest and lowest results out of nine going back to 2009; and 52% professing greater concern about it than they felt two years ago, versus 9% less concerned. However, only 12% favour an emissions trading scheme out of three options to deal with it, with 50% backing incentives for renewable energy and 10% the government’s direct action policy.

• There appears a rather indelicate mindset so far as the balance of freedom and security is concerned: 50% want more restrictions on “rights and freedoms for some people” in the interests of national security, with 34% opting for “current laws strike the right balance” (oddly, there is no option for less restrictions); and 59% support detention without charge in relation to terrorism allegations, with 24% opposed. However, 71% are concerned about privacy and surveillance of social media, compared with 25% not concerned.

• 53% profess themselves concerned about ABC funding cuts, compared with 39% not concerned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [“This inquiry will serve to investigate Premier Newman’s questionable tactics concerning the reformation and operation of the Parliamentary Crime and Corruption Commission.
    “Premier Newman has also sought to polticise the Queensland Police Service and bring the state’s judicary and legal process under his control.”
    The terms of reference for the proposed inquiry include examining Commonwealth government funds paid to the Queensland government since March 26, 2012 – two days after the LNP won government – and whether any of those funds were used for political purpose, the separation of powers in Queensland and judicial independence and how resource projects are approved.
    The inquiry, which will have the power to compel and subpoena witnesses to answer questions, will also examine Queensland government policies in regards to its human rights obligations – a nod to the controversial criminal gang laws – as well as whether a federal minister can delegate powers to the state government, which would examine the ‘one stop shop’ the Coalition laid out at the previous election.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pup-inquiry-rains-on-newmans-holiday-20140930-10o88r.html#ixzz3Emud3tjg

  2. ABC “DISPLEASE “CHINA OVER TONGHTS REPORT ON” FOR’CORRESP”
    _____________________
    The Chinese Govt is not happy with an ABC report on the treatment of Uighers in Singiag…where there have a been a series of bombings by Uighers ,includeding blasts and attacks by Uighers using knives at a railway station with many deaths
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/embassy-refuses-to-deny-claims-chinese-government-issued-veiled-threats-to-the-abc-over-foreign-correspondent-episode-20140930-10o6z4.html

  3. [Poor BB.]

    I’m gutted. Who will stand up for the passengers of MH-370 now?

    There’s only Tony Abbott left to go into bat for them.

  4. [BB – You should send your drone to check the place out.]

    I’d actually love to go there.

    There is an incredible romance attached to Diego Garcia, and in deed to all the British Indian Ocean Territory islands.

    We think of tropical isles being those in the Pacific, but in my view the Indian Ocean ones are far more exoticand mysterious.

  5. Re China and Hong Kong
    ________________________One of mny sons has a Chinese wife,and a son (my grandson)of mixed Chinese and Australian birth
    He speaks English and Chinese which has been learning all his life from his mother and in recent years from a Chinese school in Chicago where they live

    They are on a holiday in China…my grandson’s first experience of his Chinese heritage
    Speaking to us tonight from Beijing where they are in the early stages of a holiday in China …to travel and meet her family again….my D-in-Law,said that the official media has been very sharp in declaring that the Hong Kong events may been the work of “foreign involvement … which everyone knows to be the USA The news media even mentioned US involevement in the fall of the former Ukrainian govt as evidence of such “foreign involvement”by the USA

    The media has shown few pictures of the events in HK,and of course no mention of past events like the Tien an Mihn Square events of 25 years ago
    It’s the annual 3-day holiday for the Nationlal day Oct Ist
    which marks Mao declaration of the Peoples Republic in 1949

    The authorities might hope that the 3 day break will keep people’s minds off events i

    My D-in-Law says there is no feeling of crisis in Beijing

    amongst ordinary people and not much concern for HK…where there is now a Chinese military garrison

  6. I’m starting to suspect that Abbott hasn’t been asked to fly his planes over Iraq. Hence the delay.

    It’s alright for the Iraqis to invite us, but the actions have to be co-ordinated with the Yanks, and I get the feeling the Yanks are dragging the chain.

    Could be completely wrong about this of course, but wouldn’t it be delicious if Obama is extracting a little revenge for Abbott’s posturing on Climate Change? Just making him cool his heels a little, if not a lot.

  7. BB – I doubt Diego Garcia is feasible for tourism.

    You could go to Cocas. It’s scenic I told and I think the airframe of A9-754 is still in the lagoon.

  8. [43
    DisplayName]

    The activities of the Government are bound by law. Since there is no law that authorises the Government or its agents to carry out political violence against the citizens of this country or, other than in a military context, the citizens of other countries, the guarantee you request is easily given.

    There are protections against the disclosure of lawful intelligence operations by ASIO – just as there are laws against the disclosure of the lawful operations by customs and the police – but these protections do not apply to unlawful acts of violence.

    Since 1949 – for 65 years – ASIO has been collecting “private” information that may be relevant to public security. It’s just not obvious that this has harmed our political culture at all. On the contrary, if the activities of ASIO have reduced the possibility of violence then it’s made our culture a better one than it would otherwise be.

  9. [72
    DisplayName

    I’m just interested in the suggestion that it is important that we (through our government) have all the information gathering powers necessary to watch for potential threats except, apparently, when those potential threats come from our own government.]

    This is not the case. There is the Inspector General of Intelligence and Security.

    [The IGIS provides independent assurance for the Prime Minister, senior ministers and Parliament as to whether Australia’s intelligence and security agencies act legally and with propriety by inspecting, inquiring into and reporting on, their activities.

    The IGIS may inquire into matters concerning ASIO and investigate complaints made by members of the public about any Australian Intelligence Community agency. The IGIS reports annually to the Australian Government and publishes an unclassified report for parliament and the public. The IGIS may also publish, or table in parliament, other reports considered to be in the public interest.]

    http://www.asio.gov.au/About-ASIO/Oversight-and-Accountability/Inspector-General-of-Intelligence-and-Security.html

    As well, certain activities are accountable to judicial officers, and many are accountable to the Attorney General.

  10. Confessions

    There are two High Court retirements in 2015. Both Victorians currently on bench.

    The High Court has had at least one Victorian on it since 1906.

    I think Justice Middleton will be one of the appointments.

  11. Deb

    Why are the Chicom blaming the US for what is happening in HK?

    Hong Kong peole were not good enough for democracy during a century and more of British Imperial rule.

    The cunning Englishers turned it into a democracy just as they were pushed out of Hong Kong by the Chicom, thus leaving a time bomb of fundamental incompatibility: a democracy inside a dictatorship.

  12. poroti/Bw

    The UK parties seem to be fragmenting at the moment.

    The next General Election will be a dozy.

    Surely Labour will have to replace Milliband before it.

  13. Interesting that we don’t have a counterpart of the UKIP over here. Fans of radio stations like 2GB would form a natural base. One Nation briefly filled that space but fell apart and the Howard Liberals took over their territory.

    I think the reason that we don’t have our own UKIP style party is that the Liberals have moved so far right as to occupy all but the most extreme fringes.

  14. Abbott is considering subsidizing nannies for the wealthy:

    [ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-30/childcare-costing-economy-as-mothers-forego-work/5751524 ]

    Jeez! I’ve heard about the “Nanny State” but I never thought I’d end up in one!

    Of course, I couldn’t afford a nanny myself – even with those hefty subsidies – but it is such a relief for me to know that all those North Shore doctor’s wives will now get relief from those onerous childcare duties!

  15. [Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    BB
    If you enter ‘Diego Garcia Airport’ in Google Earth you will find 14 B 52s but not a single MH-370, or part thereof.]

    A minor quibble BW. In the latest photo in my GE I can only see 7 B52’s plus 6 other 4 engine jets, probably refuelers (possibly KC-135s). Earlier photos show B1’s as well as B52’s but never 14.

  16. Re UKIP…777–126
    _________
    UKIP does have s epcial advantage in that they are a One Issue Party appealing to anti-EU feelings amongst the many very insular english-tory voters …who never have shown any enthusiam for a wider Euro community,and now latch onto a hostile feeling by many english against Bruxelles

    A similar mood cam be seen in France where Le Pen is doing better than the major Right and is thrashing the Socialists under Hollande who is hugely unpopular with voters

    This past week Le Pen’s party won their first Senate seats in the electrions there,and made wide gains recently at the municipal elections She will ceetainly get into the 2nd round run-off at the next eletions… against the Right wing candidate for the Presidency

    Can UKIP do so well in the UK…and they will play a big role if the Tories keep their promise to hold a referendum on Europe…. if returned to power next year

  17. [BB
    If you enter ‘Diego Garcia Airport’ in Google Earth you will find 14 B 52s but not a single MH-370, or part thereof.]

    What a truly idiotic, knee-jerk comment.

    If you check the satellite image that Google Earth uses for Diego Garcia you’ll see it is dated “April 13, 2006”.

  18. [Coalition MPs are pushing back against moves by the Abbott Government to curtail lucrative travel perks for retired politicians.

    Heated debate broke out in a Coalition party room meeting this morning after the Government confirmed it would fulfil its promise to axe the Gold Pass travel scheme.]

    Labor in govt stopped this for all new MPs, and it would be interesting to search back to see what the then Abbott opposition had to say about that at the time.

    But IMO this has nothing to do with being fiscally responsible and everything to do with the govt trying to recast itself away from ideologically driven budget measures towards appearing to having adopted a more centrist approach to the budget.

    In Howardesque fashion, they’ll cut the scheme now, but in a year or two the entitlements will be reinstated under the guise of a different name.

  19. _________Succession movements grow in Euro and the US

    an interesting look at the spread of successionist movements some seeking to model themselves on the Scottish Nationist Party,,,,who though initially unsuccessful they have many imators

    Catalonia will vote in November on succession from Spain

  20. No doubt Q already asked, but what sort of loaded polling question is this…

    “rights and freedoms for some people” ( quote from Williams title piece )

    who are “some” people when the resulting infringement of liberties effects everyone not “some”, why wasn’t the neutral & truthful question asked?…..”your rights and freedoms ”
    the result might have been 80% against

    Pollsters & media complicit in destroying freedom…

  21. I think the UKIP has managed to look not too extremist in the sense that that far-right extremist space is already occupied by the BNP. That’s not to say that it has not attracted some of the former BNP supporters into it, but Deblonay is right, it has focused on being nothing but single-issue: the exit from the EU.

  22. Unfortunately Catalonia’s vote does not have the backing of the Spanish government, unlike in the UK where the UK’s parliament has allowed it.

  23. 133 re gold pass
    __________
    From a friend/former MHR…I’m told that there is a feeling among retired MPs that the Gold Pass is witten into their retirement contracts and some will challange in court any Abbott plan to take it away …including some former Lib-MPs

  24. briefly
    I assume that the IGIS could no more publish that such actions are being undertaken by our government than anyone else, they would be covered by the same whisteblower laws.

    Is that assumption incorrect?

  25. 145
    DisplayName

    This may be of interest to you…

    [Roles and Functions of the Inspector-General

    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security is an independent statutory office holder who reviews the activities of the six intelligence agencies referred to as the “Australian Intelligence Community”, namely:

    Australian Security Intelligence Organisation – ASIO
    Australian Secret Intelligence Service – ASIS
    Defence Signals Directorate – DSD
    Defence Imagery and Geospatial Organisation – DIGO
    Defence Intelligence organisation – DIO
    Office of National Assessments – ONA

    The purpose of this review is to ensure that the agencies act legally and with propriety, comply with ministerial guidelines and directives and respect human rights.

    The functions of the Inspector-General are prescribed under sections 8, 9 and 9A of the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security Act 1986 (Comlaw).

    The Inspector-General can undertake a formal inquiry into the activities of an Australian intelligence agency in response to a complaint or a reference from a minister. The Inspector-General can also act independently to initiate inquiries and conducts regular inspections and monitoring of agency activities.

    In conducting an inquiry, the Inspector-General has significant powers which include requiring the attendance of witnesses, taking sworn evidence, copying and retention of documents and entry into an Australian intelligence agencies’ premises.

    The Inspector-General can also conduct preliminary inquiries into matters in order to decide whether to initiate a full inquiry.]

    http://www.igis.gov.au/about/index.cfm

  26. I am not even questioning the ethics or morals of the government. The government and its agencies could be doing what they think is in society’s best interest, but simply mistaken about what the society they serve considers harmful. Such mismatches probably occur all the time. People get things wrong, both the public and politicians.

    With these laws, the government would be unlikely to be informed by the public that a particular action being taken by the government, however lawful, is undesired.

  27. I have realised a mistake on my part. You have been talking specifically about political violence, which I have automatically generalised to negative consequences of some sort or another.

    I agree that it’s probably fair enough for you to make guarantees about that in Australia.

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