Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll records a delicate shift to the Coalition on voting intention, weakening climate change skepticism, and a rather tough-minded attitude on freedoms and national security.

Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate ticks a point to the Coalition this week, putting Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. The only change on the primary vote is a one point gain for the Coalition to 40%, with the balance being lost in rounding. This leaves Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%.

Also:

• The poll finds a decline in climate change skepticism, with 56% attributing climate change to human activity and 30% to normal fluctuation, respectively the equal highest and lowest results out of nine going back to 2009; and 52% professing greater concern about it than they felt two years ago, versus 9% less concerned. However, only 12% favour an emissions trading scheme out of three options to deal with it, with 50% backing incentives for renewable energy and 10% the government’s direct action policy.

• There appears a rather indelicate mindset so far as the balance of freedom and security is concerned: 50% want more restrictions on “rights and freedoms for some people” in the interests of national security, with 34% opting for “current laws strike the right balance” (oddly, there is no option for less restrictions); and 59% support detention without charge in relation to terrorism allegations, with 24% opposed. However, 71% are concerned about privacy and surveillance of social media, compared with 25% not concerned.

• 53% profess themselves concerned about ABC funding cuts, compared with 39% not concerned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. jeffemu

    [Bummer, just found out that Dutton isn’t going to be on the panel. ]

    Where is Dutton? I half expect to see his face on a milk carton. He disappeared around about the time the govt released its health policy… coincidence, of course.

  3. [ I dare say it’s the work of Google Adwords, and is quite probably there because of some search term you’ve entered recently. ]

    Youd be right. I get adverts for watt meters and LiPo batteries. 🙂

  4. I’ve since seen it as well, so I guess you’re exonerated for Googling get rich quick schemes (unless I’m guilty as well of course). I see five ad spaces on the page, three of which are clearly driven by Google, one of which clearly isn’t, and one of which alternates. The Google ones seem to reflect my recent search terms (“Swedish-made penis enlargers and me, this sort of thing is my bag baby”) about half the time.

  11. Growing debate in the US about the need for the Fed to start raising Interest Rates
    How would Hockey responbd to that,and what would the voters think about such a rise here….Interest Rates have slipped off the radar here in suburbia,and many voters would be very cross and shocked indeed

  22. I’m not suggesting our government is evil, close to it, or heading anywhere in that direction.

    I’m just interested in the suggestion that it is important that we (through our government) have all the information gathering powers necessary to watch for potential threats except, apparently, when those potential threats come from our own government.

    For a second, let’s classify me as paranoid in wanting this channel of information open to me. Mightn’t we all be paranoid, then, through our desire that our government have these extra powers? If we’re not, why is one more reasonable than the other?

  23. I have Stayz real estate up the top – probably because I was involved in a property transction earlier this year (but not in a NSW/ICAC sense).

  27. Leaving aside paranoia, my view is that it’s a design flaw.

    If there is a correction to be made to our laws – relating to these laws – that it is necessary we be informed of, we are now less/un likely to be informed of it.

    So everything goes well as long as it goes well. Great!

  28. “They prey on some mens inadequacies and feed their unfulfillable fantasies”.

    It’s OK. William will support Fremantle regardless of the outcome.

  29. [Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 3 hours ago
    The Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR has just announced the 10th inquiry into pink batts.Looking at millions of dollars in compo. Wow ! ]

    Abbott really gets stuck into the hard questions, doesn’t he…

  33. poroti – I assume they went via Singapore and they’ve got a tanker with them as well.

    It’s a strange thing when we have more A/C there than the UK.

    ‘Dave’ is only committing 4 GR4’s – which I guess means that they have 6 of the at RAF Akrotiri.

  34. Lizzie

    [Exactly what are they enquiring about? Can’t just be his domineering nature.]

    Backroom deals with developers and some miners.

    When the relationship between Palmer & Newman began to sour, Palmer alleged there were secret back room deals being done divvying up the spoils of the election win.

  38. Strictly speaking, an ‘apocalyptic death cult’ is a revealing desth cult.

    But I am wondering if the Daesh ‘Caliph’ will declare himself to be the Mahdi. Then it will really be on. A mad end times cult with a large army, oil wells, a couple of large cities and captured American hardware. But I don’t think Daesh are quite that mad yet.

  42. Lizzie
    [Thanks. I hope Palmer has some real evidence or he’ll look a fool.]

    Anna Bligh made allegations about back room deals being done with developers, apparently relos of Newman in the run up to the election.

    At the time, Palmer accused Bligh of being desperate.

    Is Bongiorno serious?

    Another inquiry?

  43. Not heard much about this of late!

    [The Queensland corruption watchdog has been asked to investigate if a donation to the state’s Liberal National Party led to an extension of sand mining on North Stradbroke Island.

    The previous Labor government had legislated to end all sand mining by 2025, but last year the LNP government extended Sibelco’s lease for its main Enterprise mine from 2019 to 2035.

    Sibelco spent $90,000 helping Campbell Newman win the Brisbane seat of Ashgrove off Labor to become premier in 2012, Labor says.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/sand-mining-deal-corruption-probe-wanted-20140624-3aqlc.html

  46. We need an enquiry into tax avoidance / evasion by the big end of town. Apart from discovering how we might stem the loss of revenue, it will probably catch lots of Liberal funders, hopefully including Newscorp. So it won’t happen.

  49. S777

    [We need an enquiry into tax avoidance / evasion by the big end of town.]

    It’s interesting that Senator Heffernan is advocating this loudly.

  50. Abbott got to rant about pink batts again today in HoR, just after QT. Really just an unveiled attack on the previous government, when will he stop?

    Given the recent increase in workplace deaths this only goes to show the man is a vindictive fool. I know it’s only increased by 4 but that’s the same number who died in roofs.

    [As of mid-September, 129 Australians have been killed at work, compared to 125 people killed to the equivalent point in 2013, Safe Work Australia statistics show.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/09/29/more-australians-are-dying-at-work-while-we-chatter-about-terrorism/

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