Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll records a delicate shift to the Coalition on voting intention, weakening climate change skepticism, and a rather tough-minded attitude on freedoms and national security.

Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate ticks a point to the Coalition this week, putting Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. The only change on the primary vote is a one point gain for the Coalition to 40%, with the balance being lost in rounding. This leaves Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%.

Also:

• The poll finds a decline in climate change skepticism, with 56% attributing climate change to human activity and 30% to normal fluctuation, respectively the equal highest and lowest results out of nine going back to 2009; and 52% professing greater concern about it than they felt two years ago, versus 9% less concerned. However, only 12% favour an emissions trading scheme out of three options to deal with it, with 50% backing incentives for renewable energy and 10% the government’s direct action policy.

• There appears a rather indelicate mindset so far as the balance of freedom and security is concerned: 50% want more restrictions on “rights and freedoms for some people” in the interests of national security, with 34% opting for “current laws strike the right balance” (oddly, there is no option for less restrictions); and 59% support detention without charge in relation to terrorism allegations, with 24% opposed. However, 71% are concerned about privacy and surveillance of social media, compared with 25% not concerned.

• 53% profess themselves concerned about ABC funding cuts, compared with 39% not concerned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    McDevitt has already said that all players who do not attend Essendon facilities could be racking up their time – even without a conviction.

    They would be building up time just in case. Clearly he wants to get it all over asap.

    Smart players would have stayed away from EFC facilities from the night after their losing final.

  2. BW,

    The EFC best and fairest is tonight. That has to be a club sanctioned activity/function. So, I doubt the clock has even started ticking.

  3. [Anyone wanting to take the moral temperature of the post-American world President Obama wants to create only had to drop by the United Nations last Thursday afternoon. There he would have seen British prime minister David Cameron sitting down with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to ask — no, beg him to join the misbegotten coalition Obama has assembled against the Islamic State. Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry had already extended the invitation to Iran to join, and Iran had already refused. Now it was Cameron’s turn. He may think this will burnish his image as a master diplomat after convincing the Scots not to demand independence. Instead, he’s only opened one more sordid chapter in the most remarkable story of how Iran, a vicious rogue nation and state sponsor of terrorism — not to mention beacon of anti-Semitism — has become the rising dominant power in the region, and is now being blatantly courted as an ally by the West.]

    How things go round and round.

  4. outside left,

    What do you call sending troops and planes to a far flung place to bomb the crap out of someone else’s country.

  5. [More than 230 Westpac jobs in Western Australia and Queensland are to go with the closure of two customer contact centres in the states in March next year.]

    Ever since the coalition was elected last year it seems we’ve heard of nothing but job losses, companies and plants closing down, and investment drying up. Hockey’s and Abbott’s talking down our economy for the past 4 years coming to fruition.

    Someone should remind these elitists they ought to be careful what they wish for.

  6. [508
    confessions]

    It’s hard to fathom the reasons for these closures. Presumably, they still need call centres, still have customers in WA and Queensland and will still need to accommodate and manage their staff. September labour force stats will be out next week, so we’ll be able to see how jobs are tracking under this hopeless Government.

  7. Laughably Ive been reading a few articles lately that are critical of Labor for not taking on the current government for it’s changes to security laws as they might stuff up the journos ability to lie.

    Let them burn.

  8. MH

    It’s notable that after almost a decade of dealing up crap the Press want help from the general public?

    Not many 4th Estate worth defending.

  9. briefly:

    Practically since the day they were elected it’s been depressing news on the jobs front. Across the country. And their current policy settings aren’t going to improve things for working people in any foreseeable way.

  10. http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fear-of-ascendancy-of-scott-morrison-leads-to-scuttling-of-homeland-security-superministry-20140930-10o7cb.html

    As I foreshadowed, Morrison will sooner have an enlarged Border Protection portfolio rather than disappear over at Defence.

    Morrison is certainly the heir apparent now. Turnbull and Hockey are history. And Bishop J — well, she doesn’t have a penis, so won’t be leading the Libs this century.

  11. [It’s notable that after almost a decade of dealing up crap the Press want help from the general public?]

    Yes, that’s been my point from the word go on these legislative amendments. A classic case in point being that we had to read about these then-proposed amendments being considered by parliament only AFTER they’d been considered by parliament 2 years later, and having slid their way closer to law, only for that same media to pitch a fit at the sheer injustice of parliament curtailing its ‘freedom’ to report on substantial matters of public interest.

    Cry me a river. They gave up any claim to being a body vested with reporting on matters of public interest when they made a big deal about Gillard’s time with the AWU 20+ years ago, all the while giving LOTO Abbott a clear easy run at govt.

    Horse. Bolted.

  12. Greensborough Growler

    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    outside left,

    What do you call sending troops and planes to a far flung place to bomb the crap out of someone else’s country.

    Korea was called a “police” action….

  13. Never fear, we are not alone in our Abbott ratbaggery.

    [MARSEILLE, France — Elected mayor of one section of Marseille earlier this year as the candidate of the far-right National Front, Stéphane Ravier wasted no time before making headlines, announcing that public employees under his control would no longer speak anything but French, a slap at this sprawling port city’s large Muslim immigrant population.

    Ticking off his other accomplishments recently, Mr. Ravier described serving quiche with bacon at an annual city hall function rather than a non-pork version in deference to Muslim dietary practices, and halting a marriage ceremony because a young Muslim bride was wearing a veil covering her face.]

  14. [Yes, that’s been my point from the word go on these legislative amendments. A classic case in point being that we had to read about these then-proposed amendments being considered by parliament only AFTER they’d been considered by parliament 2 years later, and having slid their way closer to law, only for that same media to pitch a fit at the sheer injustice of parliament curtailing its ‘freedom’ to report on substantial matters of public interest.
    Cry me a river. They gave up any claim to being a body vested with reporting on matters of public interest when they made a big deal about Gillard’s time with the AWU 20+ years ago, all the while giving LOTO Abbott a clear easy run at govt.
    ]

    Bend over press, you are receiving your just desserts.

    Don’t cry for a free press, she is already dead.

  15. Re Saudi funding
    ___________
    The Saudis fund their Wahhabi brand of fundamentalism here in Austalia with big sums given to islamic colleges and local mosques
    I have an old friend who is Egyptian born… but been here for 50 years andis now a retired GP…and he has expressed alarm at the Saudi actions and funding
    He is a very moderate,relaxed Sunni,but regards the Saudis as an awful crew…the richest family in all human history..though there are many poor in Saudi,and foreign workers who are terribly exploited

    He has a view that the ISIS group might hae designs on Saudi,where despite their wealth many in Saudi hate them
    They of course control Mecca and the Holy Places of Islam,which would put ISIS in the box seat if they came to power there

    BTW each month about a dozen or more people are publically beheaded in Saudi under the criminal code…I have never heard Obama ,Abbott or others make a complaint…could it be something to do with OIL

  16. A friend of mine had been having a few bureaucratic issues pertaining to their permanent residency/citizenship. Went through all the avenues before Scott Morrison saved the day. To pay for his effort, my friend had to take time off work (minimum wage + casual loading) to travel to Canberra to shake hands with the minister.

    Mr. Morrison took the opportunity to say that my friend was the kind of person we needed in the country and how thankful he should be that he intervened at all (despite the circumstances of his rejection being utterly absurd ). He apparently crapped on about terrorism (including the two who escaped the country on their relative’s passports under his watch) and boat people.

    My friend was not impressed. I do wonder why, if this silly situation is a relatively common one or one easy to fix with ministerial influence, it isn’t remedied more generally in legislation or departmental regulations/policies.

  17. Mike H 517_______
    _______
    Some years ago a far-right Le Pen Mayor of Orange in Provence caused a national stir in France when he removed some books from the local Library which condemned the war-time Vichy Regime which collaborated wth the Nazi Occupiers o
    Le Pen’s people however are on the rise,and they won their first seats recently in the French Senate,and are heading the mainline conservative and far ahead of Pres. Hollande’s unpopular Socialist,who are polling 17% in recent polls

    bas for the party in power

  18. [To pay for his effort, my friend had to take time off work (minimum wage + casual loading) to travel to Canberra to shake hands with the minister.]

    Bugler

    Are you suggesting Morisson was “paid” for his intervention? If so, that is a very serious assertion.

    I am not sure why such a visit to Canberra was necessary.

    We don’t appear to have the full story here, doesn’t make sense in its current form.

    Thanks

    Darren

  19. [Mike H 517_______
    _______
    Some years ago a far-right Le Pen Mayor of Orange in Provence caused a national stir in France when he removed some books from the local Library which condemned the war-time Vichy Regime which collaborated wth the Nazi Occupiers o
    Le Pen’s people however are on the rise,and they won their first seats recently in the French Senate,and are heading the mainline conservative and far ahead of Pres. Hollande’s unpopular Socialist,who are polling 17% in recent polls]

    The FN is famous for its anti-semitism, the likes of deblonay would be welcome in the party.

    Though under Marie Le Pen, she has been a bit better at hiding its anti-semitism — this is part of her “dédiabolisation” of the party.

  20. Darren,

    Morrison wanted the publicity. I’m not suggesting anything corrupt occurred. I’m merely saying my friend was disappointed that his issues, which were by and large technical, having been born and lived until recently across the ditch, were hijacked by Morrison to discuss unrelated issues, such as suspected terrorists and “boat people”. It should have been something happy for him and his family and not politicised to fit an agenda my friend vehemently disagrees with.

    I am unsure, as is he, why he had to travel to Canberra and couldn’t wait until Morrison had an engagement in Melbourne. The further point I was making was why this issue can’t be done away with legislatively or give the department greater flexibility to deal with these issues so that they can be solved well short of several tribunals (not cheap) and ministerial intervention.

    I do know quite a bit about the “full story”, being someone I talk to quite a bit, but I’m not going to get into the specifics of the situation on a public blog (unless you have some insight into how these scenarios play out)

  21. [Though under Marie Le Pen, she has been a bit better at hiding its anti-semitism — this is part of her “dédiabolisation” of the party.]

    Marine Le Pen, I meant of course.

  22. [to travel to Canberra and couldn’t wait until Morrison had an engagement in Melbourne. The further point I was making was why this issue can’t be done away with legislatively or give the department greater flexibility to deal with these issues so that they can be solved well short of several tribunals (not cheap) and ministerial intervention.
    ]

    The NZ situation is quite complex.

    It could be solved if NZ became a state of Australia, but they continue to not even countenance such an idea — even the Kiwis in Australia refuse to discuss it, and they are the ones who would most benefit!

  23. DL @ 524

    “The FN is famous for its anti-semitism, the likes of deblonay would be welcome in the party”

    Using the same analogy – The FN is famous for being anti-muslim, so the likes of E Sinjin and Likud would also be “welcome in the party”.

    Really adds up Darren!

  24. Oh come on: the Saudis fund just about every Sunni Wahabbist outfit going – in a faustian pact to prevent those groups acting in the Kingdom.

    Until we’re bombing Riyadh the WOT is all just a ruse.

  25. E Sinin likes crossword puzzles.

    Sits in the IPA meeting room trying to remember what personal problems need to be overcome!

    Sadly memory loss like that can’t be reversed.

  26. Ok William, but really you can’t characterise many of deblonays posts as anything other than rank anti-semitism which shouldne be tolerated.

  27. [To me, it definitely appears to be a problem that realistically shouldn’t arise at all. Ridiculous, really.]

    Follow the $$$ and you will have your answer.

  28. ESJ @ 536

    What rubbish you talk about Deb. All you are about is personal abuse. Never once have I seen you contribute to the discussions here. You are a resident NWM (see if you can decipher it).

  29. Oh sinjin I’ve just realised – “The Creature from the Black Lagoon” is your personal cult movie!

    By the way it’s “you’re” not your!

  30. Brendon Bolton would be a good fit for Adelaide i reckon as he has coached his own team in Nth Hobart and then been part of the successful Hawthorn system. The 2 best coaches currently in Clarkson and Hinkley have both coached thier own teams before taking the reigns at AFL level.

    Seems to be the path to take, rather than being appointed after just 2-3 years in an assistant role or in Hird’s case not even that.

  31. DL,

    If it comes to that I’m going to see if I can ask around amongst people I know with more expertise and influence than myself to see if I can help avoid that. I think the matter’s settled until he attempts to go for actual citizenship (which he’s keen on). No harm in research, however.

  32. Re various comments re Saudi enabling of terrorism: if we’re going to target those who finance extremism for whatever ends we end up targeting almost anyone, probably including both Russia and the USA. Ideally, I’m in favour of sending the message that no matter what the temptation, recipient groups that turn to actually killing civilians from other countries to make a political point will be dealt with.

    I’d support the current attacks on ISIL if I thought they would actually in the long term reduce the risk of groups like ISIL attacking non-combatants; unfortunately they will more likely just waste resources and kill civilians in the area without making any group safer in the very long term.

  33. [513
    confessions

    briefly:

    Practically since the day they were elected it’s been depressing news on the jobs front. Across the country. And their current policy settings aren’t going to improve things for working people in any foreseeable way.]

    They are such dimwits…demoralising really.

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