Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll records a delicate shift to the Coalition on voting intention, weakening climate change skepticism, and a rather tough-minded attitude on freedoms and national security.

Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate ticks a point to the Coalition this week, putting Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. The only change on the primary vote is a one point gain for the Coalition to 40%, with the balance being lost in rounding. This leaves Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%.

Also:

• The poll finds a decline in climate change skepticism, with 56% attributing climate change to human activity and 30% to normal fluctuation, respectively the equal highest and lowest results out of nine going back to 2009; and 52% professing greater concern about it than they felt two years ago, versus 9% less concerned. However, only 12% favour an emissions trading scheme out of three options to deal with it, with 50% backing incentives for renewable energy and 10% the government’s direct action policy.

• There appears a rather indelicate mindset so far as the balance of freedom and security is concerned: 50% want more restrictions on “rights and freedoms for some people” in the interests of national security, with 34% opting for “current laws strike the right balance” (oddly, there is no option for less restrictions); and 59% support detention without charge in relation to terrorism allegations, with 24% opposed. However, 71% are concerned about privacy and surveillance of social media, compared with 25% not concerned.

• 53% profess themselves concerned about ABC funding cuts, compared with 39% not concerned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. From the Absurdistan Files:

    Abbott has repeatedly and with, I dare say, relish, criticised IS fighters for crucifying their enemies.

    Good catholics and protestants all, will get the sectarian dog whistle, no probs.

    But what is Abbott going to do now that one of our allies, which has actually gone in and bombed the enemy, or showered them with food and ammo, whatever, is on the crucifixion circuit as well?

    Disclaimer: I deplore crucifixion.

  2. briefly

    [We need reform in the tax system and in banking, science, technology, education, trade and environmental polices. We are going to get nothing from the LNP. Absolutely nothing.]

    I agree. Any reforms by Labor weren’t supported because Labor suggested it. Now they’ve reversed as much as they can. All Hockey seems to do is mock Labor (i.e. Swan) because a surplus wasn’t achieved. Great stand-up comedy in QT but achieves nothing. Barnaby today went off in a rant about the lack of farmers in ALP. Turnbull is a farmer? Pull the other leg. Hopeless lot.

  3. Ptmd (fingers crossed for doggy)

    [I’m no better placed to determine their gender than yourself.]

    I’m sure Briefly is a hairy legged mini-skirt wearer.

    😀

  4. briefly

    [We are going to get nothing from the LNP. Absolutely nothing]
    Doing “nothing” would be better in many of those areas they are actively working to take us backwards.

  5. Speaking of ‘if only’ …

    Back in the late 1960s, like many children, I acquired an interest in Greek and Roman mythology. Sitting down one day and thumbing through the paper, I came to the section on share prices. It was obviously a slow day because I began amusing myself with the company names and their prices. I knew nothing useful at all about trading in shares but i came across one stock that intrigued me — Poseidon NL. It was trading at around 70 cents as I recall and I said in fun to my father — hey why don’t we buy some of these.

    He asked me why and I just said … hey … It’s called Poseidon. Isn’t that enough?

    It wasn’t.

    As it turned out though, due to a bit of a snafu in the nickel market, the price began rising in the spring of 1969 and even your average person was suddenly interested in the stock market.

    Apparently at one point the shares were priced at nearly $400 each — a huge sum at the time.

    It became the family legend that I’d picked the stock when it was cheap and there were endless rounds of ‘if only’.

    😉

  6. [Today, the terrorists have won. The rights and freedoms of Australian citizens have been sacrificed.
    And this has occurred for no good reason.
    Despite concerns raised by dozens of academics, lawyers, rights groups, the dumped national security legislation monitor Bret Walker, SC, and human rights commissioner Tim Wilson, new national security legislation that will jail journalists and whistleblowers if they reveal information about covert “special” operations passed the House of Representatives on Wednesday.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/terrorists-win-under-new-spy-laws-20141001-10on9x.html#ixzz3EsgUC1m3

  7. lefty e@438

    The much-less-concerning beheadings of our key allies the Saudis:

    http://aattp.org/saudi-arabia-beheads-26-people-in-1-month-some-for-sorcery-us-fox-has-nothing-to-say-about-it/

    These beheadings are for proper legal things, like Sorcery and Witchcraft.

    As appalling and more than concerning as Saudi “justice” is, there is something the article overlooks in its rush to equate things that aren’t equal. ISIL deliberately beheads western nationals for being western nationals without them even needing to be personally accused of any supposed crime, and does so to intimidate and scare western civilians.

    If you’re a western citizen and you want to avoid Saudi “justice”, you can do this by not going to Saudi Arabia. ISIL – like al Qaeda – have made it quite clear they support attacks by their supporters anywhere (though in practice outside certain areas the risk is low). Saudi Arabia don’t, as far as I know, seek to export their approach way outside their borders, nor to target harmless civilians of other nations who are nowhere near them. ISIL are a threat, however minor, to western civilians in general in a way that Saudi Arabia’s “justice” system is not.

    That said that article doesn’t make me too keen on ever going there!

  8. Sounds like the Bombers have just about had enough of Hird who will be sacked if he goes ahead with the legal appeal.

    [ESSENDON coach James Hird faces the sack if he opts to go against club orders and appeal a Federal Court ruling on the Bombers’ drugs saga.

    Hird has been told not to attend tonight’s club best-and-fairest ceremony at Crown Casino.]

  9. KB

    [That said that article doesn’t make me too keen on ever going there!]

    Must be a great place to visit if you enjoy endless sand dunes.

  10. Diogs,

    Adelaide are apparently interviewing Brendan Bolton for the main gig there. He was the guy yhat replaced Clarkson when he was ill earlier in the year.

    Adelaide going for another inexperienced coach.

    Someone to do the work because Ricuitto is too lazy?

  11. [454
    CTar1

    I’m sure Briefly is a hairy legged mini-skirt wearer.]

    Oh well, out with it, I suppose. I’m a nudist. I don’t shave anything except the parmigiano.

  12. [Sounds like the Bombers have just about had enough of Hird who will be sacked if he goes ahead with the legal appeal.
    ESSENDON coach James Hird faces the sack if he opts to go against club orders and appeal a Federal Court ruling on the Bombers’ drugs saga.
    Hird has been told not to attend tonight’s club best-and-fairest ceremony at Crown Casino.]

    He could not possibly coach next year.

  13. GG

    I heard we’d have a coach by Wed next week. Dunno who.

    Whoever gets it is severely hamstrung as lots of the recruiting and draft choices will be done by then so they won’t get much input.

    Complete stuff up

  14. [Sounds like the Bombers have just about had enough of Hird who will be sacked if he goes ahead with the legal appeal.]

    Hopefully some wiser heads at Essendon are coming to their senses and realising the club needs a wholesale clean out. It isn’t just Hird who needs to go in my view.

  15. Dio

    [Hird has been told not to attend tonight’s club best-and-fairest ceremony at Crown Casino.]

    I think that’s saying they’ve had more than enough.

  16. fess,

    I don’ think there are any wise heads at Essendon regarding Hird.

    But, I think they may have got tired of standing under a freezing cold shower tearing up $100 bills.

  17. KB

    [Saudi Arabia don’t, as far as I know, seek to export their approach way outside their borders…]

    While it is probably fair to say that Saudi Arabia is not monolithic and that therefore no general statement applies, it would be fair to say that it has been an energetic exporter of the Wahabi brand.

    Just what the Saudis have been up to in Syria and Iraq is difficult to establish, but there can be little doubt that they are very active in Syria and that the targets for support includes al Nusra which is scarcely better than ISIS.

    While officially the Saudis appear to have the wind up about ISIS, it is also highly likely, IMHO, that they have been sometime supporters of same and that elements within Saudi Arabia do support ISIS.

    http://www.npr.org/2013/03/13/174156172/with-official-wink-and-nod-young-saudis-join-syrias-rebels

  18. briefly

    [Oh well, out with it, I suppose. I’m a nudist. I don’t shave anything except the parmigiano.]

    ah … So that explains the nom-de-plume. 😉

  19. The numbers produced for the PEFO in August 2013 These show a reduction in the deficit leading to a surplus.

    2014-15 -$24.0 billion
    2015-16 -$4.7 billion
    2016-17 +$4.0 billion

    The policy flip flops suggest the December MYEFO will produce budget deficit numbers as follows:

    2014-15 -$34 billion
    2015-16 -$25 billion
    2016-17 -$15 billion

    All Liberal Govt debt. All happening due to decisions made by the Liberal Govt. Can’t keep blaming Labor for the decisions of Abbott/Hockey…

  20. Lizzie back @393 and Mari@ 397 making comments about other posters here (male it is assumed) “fighting World Wars” and “mainly males on wars” might like to consider that some of this stuff was to with the futility of it all.

    I pointed out in a post a day or two ago in discussion with BW and others, that during WW2 so many good men died in the RAF/RAAF due to the crappy quality of their planes as opposed to those flown by the Germans and the Japanese.

    I drew a direct link to this with the possible rubbish nature of “our” JSF hardware to come from the US – essentially to demonstrate that in 70 years of arms procurement, FA has changed.

    Having seen enough war graves for a whole life time in Western Europe and in Asia – graves mainly filled by young men – it is not surprising that perhaps some males, me included, have more than a passing interest into the real impact of war.

    War is not some kind of Boys Own stuff as is attested by blokes with perhaps 10 hours of flying time in Spitfires obliged to put their lives on the line in the Battle of Britain and merely 18 or 19 years old themselves.

    I am sorry such topics bore you both though, and to be provocative here, if and when a greater proportion of females start to fill the body bags coming home from our military engagements, then discussion about what type of equipment they may have got and how helpful it has been in ensuring they survive, might not be quite so “boring”.

  21. [475
    Fran Barlow

    briefly

    Oh well, out with it, I suppose. I’m a nudist. I don’t shave anything except the parmigiano.

    ah … So that explains the nom-de-plume. 😉

    476
    CTar1

    😆 ]

    lol…that’s the risk I took, fran. Recently, following dtt’s short story, I’ve been thinking of myself as being something of a koala…so that’s it, a bare-assed koala with notebook…. 🙂

  22. fess,

    Hird would have credibility problems simply handing out oranges at 3/4 time in an Under 10 match in future.

    As for the Essendon Board. Plenty of business people have found out that a football club is a passion and not a business. History is strewn with business moguls coming a cropper in football clubs.

  23. AA

    Hockey was fast to stuff nearly $9B into the Reserve Bank using Labor’s D & DD as cover, no doubt with a view to some major pork barreling at the next election.

    However if the war on burka’s continues to soak up funds the Libs will be left looking like economic vandals sooner than later.

  24. Hird to press on with his appeal…

    Emergency Essendon FC Board meeting tomorrow.

    Goss is Hird to be sacked and Bomber snapped up before another FC gets him.

    Players, presumably, will cop a guilty plea which will cost them a couple of matches next year.

    But can they do this without Show Cause notices, noting that ASADA has indicated it will not hand down Show Cause notices until the appeal period is over and, presumably, not until any appeal is Hird (sic).

    This raises the possibility that Hird will be successful in his appeal while the players are in the sin bin.

  25. Woohoo, this is great news!

    Excerpts
    [Australian scientists have discovered a set of drugs that stop the growth of bowel cancers in about 80 to 90 per cent of cases.]
    [With JAK inhibitors already approved for use in other diseases, Dr Phesse expects the up-take of this new bowel cancer treatment to be quick.

    “The great thing is that they are already existing in the clinic and they’re being used to treat disorders such as psoriasis, arthritis, minor fibrosis,” he said.

    “So we don’t have to spend the many years and the resources … to develop a new drug.

    “They’re there in the clinic and we just have to bring the story out now that these drugs actually can be used in colon cancer.”]

  26. BW,

    I doubt that ASADA will proceed against the players until the appeal is held.

    However, that will delay the issuance of the show cause notices and would likely extend the saga to next year.

    I’m not sure that Essendon, the AFL or the Players will want a third year blighted with this controversy.

  27. GG:

    In a lot of ways footy clubs (esp those with teams in professional comps) are like businesses. I can understand why so many clubs seek out business leaders for their boards.

    Seems to me where they trip up is a preparedness to bend the rules to go beyond community standards, or what is just common freakin sense.

    The arrogance of Hird is another matter again. I reckon he’s just yanking our chains with this appeal. Have to applaud the club for finally drawing a line in the sand with his crap.

  28. outside left,

    I reckon more people are interested/concerned about James Hird and Essendon than are interested in the new ‘Terror Laws”, ISIS and going to war.

  29. GG

    I suppose a short-cut deal might be that the AFL does the deed in collusion with the players, with ASADA’s support and a commitment from ASADA (and WADA) that no further action would be taken.

    Ironically, this is about where Demetriou started off…

  30. GG

    [I reckon more people are interested/concerned about James Hird and Essendon than are interested in the new ‘Terror Laws”, ISIS and going to war.]

    Good to hear, Abbott wanted politics off the front pages & more sport…hang on a minute.

  31. BW,

    The timings the issue.

    If the saga stretches on then the proposed suspensions will take in more of the football season next year.

    After all that has transpired, I doubt secret deals are going to be acceptable.

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