Friday, September 19
For literally anything you need to know about what to expect and when, Antony Green’s guide can’t be beat. Basically, we can’t expect any official results until about 3pm AEST, though presumably some manner of informal indication of how the count is going might emerge. There will not be any exit polls, but there is talk that a retrospective opinion poll might be conducted (how did you vote rather than how will you). The one final poll out was, as noted below, from Ipsos MORI, which was a phone poll of 980 respondents showing yes on 45% and no on 50%, rounding out to 53-47. I couldn’t be bothered running the poll tracker charts again because the result of the poll after bias adjustment was right on the trend, at 51.2% for no. My personal feeling is that no is likely to do it a little more easily than that, but only time will tell. The map to the right is derived from regional level polling data over the past few weeks from Survation and ICM, to give at least a broad-brush idea of where the independence cause is weakest and strongest. The actual results will emerge at the level of Scotland’s 32 local government authorities – at the link above, Antony Green maps their past voting behaviour, since support for the Scottish National Party is very likely a good proxy for how the referendum vote will go.
Thursday, September 18
9pm
A few hours after polls open, one final poll from Ipsos MORI – 53-47 to no. Ninety-five per cent report they will vote, which by early reports of turnout can almost be believed.
Overview
Okay, to tidy up the mess below: we’ve had 51-49 from the very authoritative Ipsos MORI, a phone poll with a sample of 1405; two online polls at 52-48, one from YouGov with a bumper sample of 3237, the other from Panelbase with 1004; and a phone poll from Survation, for which I assume the sample was about 1200 given such was the case in its only previous phone poll, at 53-47. The Survation survey in particular is very fresh, having been conducted entirely within the last 24 hours. Pumping all that into the poll aggregate is slightly better for yes than you might think, since Ipsos MORI and YouGov both get bias adjusted about 1.4% towards yes, and weighted heavily in the overall result. I’m a bit nervous about this – those bias adjustments seem excessive – but the current reading, which you may take or leave, is 51.2% no, 48.8% yes.
Earlier
UPDATE 4: Survation has it at 53-47.
UPDATE 3: YouGov has it at 52-48. And the fun’s not over, because Survation have just revealed they’re about to lay on a surprise phone poll.
UPDATE 2: Mike Smithson of Political Betting tweets: “So 4 pollsters have NO on 52% and 2 on 51%. Maybe they are wrong but at least they are all wrong together”. The implication, I believe, being that we may be seeing a little bit of herding going on.
UPDATE: The Ipsos MORI poll turns out to be a nailbiter – 51% no, 49% yes. This is important because it’s a phone poll rather than online, and Ipsos MORI did a particularly good job of calling the last Scottish parliamentary election. YouGov to come in a few more hours, and then I’ll give the poll aggregate another run.
A new poll from Panelbase does nothing to relieve the monotony, once again producing a result of 52-48 in favour of no. However, this is the best 52-48 so far for the no camp, as Panelbase has been the most yes-leaning of the regularly reporting pollsters. The full numbers are 49.5% no, 45.4% yes, 5.1% don’t know. Full results here. The eagerly awaited Ipsos MORI poll will be along at 3am EST, followed by the final YouGov poll at 5am.
Wednesday, September 17
Three new polls have come in overnight – from Survation, Opinium and ICM – and every one of them finds no with a lead of 52-48. My poll tracker (methodology explained in the entry below from Saturday) now has no leading 51.7% to 48.3%, slightly higher than the 51.4% to 48.6% recorded following Sunday’s polls. More tellingly, the trendlines provide a fairly clear indication that the momentum to yes which was evident over a period of weeks has tapered off:
Of the three pollsters to have reported new results, Survation has the no lead narrowing from its result on Sunday, which had it at 54-46; Opinium also narrows slightly from a poll on Sunday, which had it at 53-47; while ICM is much better for no this time around, its previous poll being a small-sample outlier with yes leading 54-46. All three polls were conducted online; Mike Smithson at Political Betting says that, based on past form, the one we should be hanging out on is tomorrow’s final phone poll from Ipsos MORI. I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the possibility that the polls might just have it all wrong.
Some further findings from Opinium: 50% do not trust that new devolution powers in the event of a no vote will be delivered as promised; 47% think Scotland will keep the pound against 37% who don’t; 44% think Alex Salmond should resign as First Minister if no wins (which I find very odd); and 45% think independence will damage the Scottish economy.
Sunday, September 13
No less than four new polls have reported overnight, of which two have “no” with reasonable solid leads of six or eight points, one is lineball, and one is the best poll yet to emerge for yes. These are reviewed in detail below, but first we take an updated look at the poll tracker. This puts the current result at 51.4% for no and 48.6% for yes, all but unchanged on the 51.2% and 48.8% recorded yesterday (based on like-for-like methodological comparison). An outline of the methodology was provided yesterday, in the bottom half of this post.
The polls in turn:
• The good news for the independence camp first: ICM has produced the second poll to show the yes vote in front, following on from the first of last week’s surveys by YouGov, and by a not inconsiderable margin – 49% to 42%, rounding out 54-46 after exclusion of the undecided. Unlike yesterday’s ICM poll, this one uses its usual online methodology. The caveat here is the unusually small sample of 705. Also, as noted below, ICM has been one of the more yes-friendly pollsters, such that the poll tracker adjusts it downwards by 2.0%.
• An online panel poll by Survation, which has tended to come in at the middle of the range, has no at 47.0% and yes at 40.8%, for a rounded result of 54-46 to no. The poll was commissioned by the pro-union Better Together campaign. Whereas the bulk of the polling for the referendum has been online, this one was conducted by telephone, from Wednesday to Friday, with a sample of 1044. As was the case with TNS yesterday, this is a first phone poll from an outfit whose previous polling was conducted online.
• Opinium is an established online pollster which has made its first entry on the referendum, this being a survey of 1055 respondents. Its result is a lot closer to Survation’s than ICM’s, with 45% for yes and 49%, rounding out to 53-47.
• Panelbase in the Sunday Times has no on 50.6% and yes on 49.4%, but given its relative “yes” lean in the past, it’s comes out similarly to Survation and Opinium so far as the poll tracker is concerned.
Saturday, September 12
It’s now less than a week until Scotland’s independence referendum, which will be held on Thursday with polling stations to close at 10pm local time, or 7am Friday on the east coast of Australia. An official result won’t be expected until mid-afternoon our time. Before that time, the 32 local authorities that will be taking care of the business end of proceedings will report their results, which I guess we can expect to be done more promptly in the cities than the country.
The latest poll out this evening is an ICM poll for The Guardian which confirms the recent trend of being too close to call – 42% no, 40% yes and 17% don’t know, panning out to a headline figure of 51-49 with the exclusion of the undecided. According to Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report, we can expect a result reasonably soon from Panelbase, which I have determined to be one of the more “yes”-friendly pollsters. We might then see a relative lull before heavy-hitters YouGov and Ipsos MORI hold off until their final results nearer the big day, although there will surely be other results around the place between now and then.
My own polling tracker, which is laid out below, currently has “no” in the lead with 51.6%, but there is no sign that the trend to “yes” is levelling off. As I shall discuss, it would have been more like 51.3% if I had treated the latest poll differently, as maybe I should have.
A few things that have caught my eye:
• For those of you who know your way around Scotland, The Guardian offers mapped results of a year’s worth of Ipsos MORI polling in eye-watering detail.
• John Curtice, a political scientist of some renown, considers the contention popular in the “yes” camp that pollsters are under-representing respondents who don’t normally vote, whom they expect will give their cause a boost. However, Curtice finds that past non-voters who have been polled are leaning quite strongly towards no.
• Stephen Fisher at Elections Etc observes polling before 16 constitutional referenda in Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Quebec, Scotland, Sweden, Britain and Wales (not us, alas), and notes there “does not seem to be a precedent for a close referendum at which final polls underestimated the Yes vote” (he in fact said “overestimated” but if you read the sentence in context, this was clearly erroneous).
Now to my own poll tracker. The methodology runs roughly as follows: 1) Calculate accuracy ratings for each pollster based on the performance of their polls in the last week of the campaigns for the 2014 European, 2011 Scottish and 2010 Westminster elections; 2) Run a local area regression on the results with each poll weighted as per the relevant pollsters’ accuracy rating multiplied by the sample size; 3) Use the trend result thus produced to derive bias measures for each pollster, by averaging the deviation of their poll results from the trend; 4) Correct the pollsters’ results accordingly and run the regression again.
The bias adjustments made to the various pollsters’ “yes” results are as follows: Ipsos Mori +1.6%; YouGov +1.6%; TNS +0.6%; Survation -0.7%; ICM -1.5%; Panelbase -2.5%; Angus Reid -4.4%. The complication I mentioned earlier is that the latest ICM poll was conducted by telephone, whereas the nine previous polls from which I have derived its bias adjustment were online polls. I have nonetheless decided to apply their existing adjustment to the latest result. Since this poll is, together with the most recent YouGov, the very latest result in the model, and the bias adjustment used is a not inconsiderable penalty to “yes”, the effect is non-trivial. If no bias adjustment is applied to this poll, the “no” result comes down to 51.2%. If the poll is removed altogether, it is 51.3%.
A couple of further points to be noted. YouGov’s stunning poll result on Monday showing yes in the lead was a real outlier from a normally no-leaning pollster, and it shows up in the charts as the only data point with yes above 50%. Another poll from YouGov a few days later had no back in front. This was inevitably reported in terms of the momentum for yes having stalled, but that’s not the picture that emerges when the polling is aggregated. Panelbase’s polling before the start of this year had an enormous lean in favour of yes which has since been corrected, so the earlier results have been excluded. Angus Reid is, or has been, a fairly major pollster in Britain, but there has been no Scottish independence polling from it since August last year. Should it re-emerge in the next few days, I will have to think twice about applying the 4.4% correction noted above.
So if Abbott’s for No and Bernardi’s for Yes, voting informal or just not showing up at all has never seemed so attractive.
Kevin
Apart from seeing some Scottish blogs that describe Abbott as very rude, I doubt any Scot would give a fuck about those two ignorant bastards.
Although as a Scots-Irish Australian, I am consoled as an “enemy of freedom”, I am not part of Team Australia.
[Sorry if I mislead you. I meant in saying they only canvassed the poorest areas that it was not a universal poll.]
Not at all swamprat – its still very intersting,as Scottish labour voters used to be a pretty solid ‘no’ constituency.
Not any more! The failures of Westminster home to roost.
I see Big Finance is threatening doom and gloom if ‘Yes’ gets up. Now why would anyone who wasn’t a major shareholder in a bank or life insurance company think that their interests align with those of Big Finance? That woukd push me towards the ‘Yes’ camp if I were a Scot.
George Monbiot looks at the bias and deception of the UK media
______________________________________________
He sees the media as relecting that elite UK view that the Irish/Scots/Arabs.Blacks and a host of others…the poor…are so bad as to only deserve scorn and derision
He looks at some journos and their hateful attacks on the Scots,and the way they have closed off the media to the Yes cause
a great article
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists?CMP
On how the referendum is about something far more interesting and important than nationalism:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/09/scotland_s_referendum_to_leave_the_united_kingdom_scots_are_voting_yes_for.html
New poll shows no on 53%, yes on 47%
There’s a new poll out.
Severin Carrell ✔ @severincarrell
Follow
And @Panelbase asked voters “to imagine that they were standing in the polling booth”. Result: 53% #no and 47% #yes #indyref
12:27 AM – 18 Sep 2014
Kinda bias question?
Yet another 52-48 – this time from Panelbase.
Severin Carrell ✔ @severincarrell
Follow
BREAKING: final @Panelbase #indyref poll gives #no 50% #yes 45% and 5% undecided; exc d/ks 52% #no 48% #yes (same as all yesterday)
12:26 AM – 18 Sep 2014
Will the Scots see through the scare campaign and vote Yes? There is an important advantage to be gained by an independent Scotland that none are game to discuss – Eurovision voting! Scotland will give the British Isles a stronger voting bloc. If Wales joins the party they can finally wrest control of voting back from the Balkan and Scandinavian nations. If Scotland ever wants a Eurovision final in Edinburgh, they must vote Yes!
Do the Channel Islands and Isle of Man get their own Eurovision votes?
Scotland Decides – The Dimbleby Interviews
[ Glenn Campbell presents the first Scottish political debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling who share their visions for Scotland’s future.
David Dimbleby interviews the key players in the Scottish referendum debate. ]
http://uploaded.net/file/b2uzi7ih/scotland.decides.the.dimbleby.interviews.hdtv.x264-c4tv.mp4
OR
http://rapidgator.net/file/16921d2751bd20199de08b0f8b958c30/scotland.decides.the.dimbleby.interviews.hdtv.x264-c4tv.mp4.html
All the polls suggest 48-49% yes; 51-52% No.
If No wins by a small margin this time, there are two key results:
1.
It is common knowledge that the preferred choice of a majority of Scots was (and probably still is) devo-max.
That is a federal UK with Scotland looking after its own affairs in almost everything.
Cameron refused to allow that choice in the Edinburgh Agreement.
He thought by forcing only a yes/no to independence he would stifle Scottish asperations.
Now close to 50% of the Scottish electorate have considered and enthusiastically want independence.
This is a massive increase from the traditional base of 30%.
I think he has given the SNP the base for eventual victory.
2.
The yes campaign was largely run by volunteer community groups, largely funded through small donations and crown-souceing, using face to face meetings and the web, as the entire MSM (including the BBC) ran a relentless distorted and often dishonest campaign against self-determination.
I cannot believe this unleashed community engagement will quietly go back into the bottle.
It will be fascinating what will happen to the Labour vote in next years general UK elections.
And finally, quoting a Herald journalist:
[I am still of the view Scots could have been satisfied by federalism. It’s what the vast majority of Scots have said they want. But David Cameron made it a condition of the UK signing the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012 that there would be a binary referendum splitting the Scottish consensus into boxes labelled independence or the status quo. Even then, most Scots were still minded to vote No. So what happened?
Well, in a nutshell, George Osborne happened. The shock announcement in February that Westminster would rule out any currency union after independence – not even think about it, not even discuss it – was a key moment in the disintegration of the old Union. That was the moment many Scots realised that the Union they thought was a partnership of nations was not a partnership at all. London was claiming exclusive rights to the common currency of the UK. It was as if the whole history of the Union had suddenly been rewritten as an afterthought to the British imperialism.
I never say how I will vote in elections. It is not my role as a journalists to tell people how to vote or promote the interests of any particular party. The only party I’ve ever been involved with is Labour and that was an eternity ago. But this isn’t an election; it is a referendum on the future of the country I live in, and I will be voting Yes.]
http://iainmacwhirter.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/the-union-finally-lost-it-last-week-im-voting-yes/
[ Scottish Independence: Politicians Love Democracy So Much They’re Trying To Subvert It
The polls in Scotland will close this week on one of the more important elections in recent history… perhaps one of the only elections that actually matters.
Rather than a typical vote to see who the captain of the Titanic will be, Scots are deciding whether they want to be free and independent from the UK.
Every eligible voter has a say, and a simple majority decides the outcome for everyone else.
By definition, this is the PUREST possible form of the democratic process.
What’s ironic here is that ‘democracy’ is typically held up as the hallmark of free society.
Western nations have spent years (and trillion of dollars) force-feeding representative ‘democracy’ down the throats of developing countries at gunpoint.
Given the west’s big love for democracy, you’d think this instance in Scotland– the most fundamental example of the democratic process– would be able to take place free, unfettered, and uninfluenced by government.
Government, in fact, is supposed to be the responsible steward to protect and champion democratic rights. At least, that’s the BS they’re constantly selling us.
But that’s not what’s happening.
British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce. So they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process.
…They know how much weaker and impotent they’ll be if Scotland becomes independent. And they’re terrified of it.
But here’s the thing– this isn’t even the real story. The outcome of the election is irrelevant.
The real issue here is that this election is even happening at all. ]
http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/scottish-independence-they-love-democracy-so-much-theyre-trying-to-subvert-it-15018/
I just think this is so funny. Pointed out by lefty yesterday…
[“Say hello to your imperial masters. These lovely people have travelled all the way from England to tell us they are better to rule us than anybody else, our imperial masters. People of Glasgow, your imperial masters have arrived!”]
[Bow down to your Imperial Masters from the Labour Party. They have used your tax money to come all this way to see you.]
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/labour-mps-get-chased-through-glasgow-by-a-rickshaw-playing#2y9djjk
Carn Sctland! Stop wasting your time with those has-beens. :p
Im predicting yes – but then again, I do like to talk for victory.
And well said Swamprat. Its quite true, a close no wont actually wont resolve very much here, just a reprieve and the UK will *have* to deliver devo max or there’ll be serious disquiet beyond the wall.
NO has run one of the worst campaigns Ive seen in the modern era: in fact,I believe history will record the campaign as the end of the union – whether it comes tomorrow or later. the monumental complacency and arrogance of the UK political elite has been on show.
How did it get to 50-50? With ZERO media or institutional support?
As for currency: get real. If YES wins, the rUK wont just *allow* the Scots to keep the pound, they’ll demand it. What a crock!
For yes, the challenge will be sustaining the level of popular mobilisation theyve stirred up, which isnt even about nationalism for about half of them.
Haha! Scotland “Caught in a bad romance”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SvdecwnYJ4
Win or lose, one thing you can say for the ‘Yes’ campaign is that they certainly had more fun.
Dave
[Glenn Campbell presents the first Scottish political debate]
Is he going to sing as well?
Lefty
Not my style of music but Stanley Odd is very good…
http://stanleyodd.com
Then the Proclaimers
Cap in Hand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNCFR8SqioE
Socrates:
[If Scotland ever wants a Eurovision final in Edinburgh, they must vote Yes!]
Finally, at the 11th hour, a persuasive reason to vote No!
😉
I might have missed earlier discussions on UKIP but what is their official position on Scotland Independence? I did some googling and I noticed some statements from earlier in the year that Farage dismissed it as “false independence” among other things.
If that is the case, wouldn’t it be hypocrisy on their part on wanting to be out of the EU but yet won’t like Scotland to leave the Union?
@Raaraa/125
All 3 major parties are against breaking up the Union
https://news.vice.com/article/ukip-held-a-weird-press-conference-to-stop-the-united-kingdom-from-separating
[One thing is absolutely certain – Britain will never be the same again after the Scottish independence vote, and I think everyone will agree that this will be a good thing, writes Rory Ford.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-18/ford-britain-will-never-be-the-same-again/5752070
RaaRaa 125 – Yes UKIP are firmly against Scottish independence, which is so hypocritical it’s almost funny.
If Scotland votes “Yes” it may handicap Labour at future “English/Welsh/N.Irish” elections, but I think that at the 2015 election Cameron would likely be slaughtered, and UKIP might actually pick up seats which otherwise would look unlikely.
Good luck Scotland – may the spirits of the Scottish ancestors in my family tree guide you on your way!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael
Without Scotland, Labour would never win a UK election.
[Without Scotland, Labour would never win a UK election.]
Except maybe in 1997, 2001 and 2005, when they won majorities of the seats in England.
Yes, “losing” Scotland may handicap Labour a bit, but Cameron’s name would be mud in England.
In fact he would probably resign as PM before the 2015 election to try and limit the damage to the Tories.
Just looking at Antony Green’s site
http://www.abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/
Antony – are ye there laddie??
Socrates and Fran
A piece of trivia.
The Eurovision Song Contest was held in Edinburgh in 1972. It was won by Vicki Leandros singing “Apres Toi” and was chosen as the venue because Monaco (which had won the previous year) couldn’t provide a venue!
Allan – Apres Toi – 1972
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka89ORFu_Tc
Not bad compared to Eurovision these days!
A Greek singing, in Scotland, a French song written by a German!
Antony Green’s Scottish referendum page has got it goin’ on:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/
The polls only close at 10pm in Scotland. Dunno if they wait until then to start counting. If they do, I imagine they will wait until the next morning to count.
Nope Diog @137 – they start counting straight away. It’ll be a long night in Scotland.
J341983 – though apparently pubs have been permission to stay open all night!
There’s an upside! Sadly, I doubt that’ll apply here.
J341983
So when are the first numbers released? Close of voting?
[Those who rule over us had forgotten fear, except as a tool. They buy governments. They laugh in the face of the law. They own the press. The real, unelected holders and wielders of power are immune to transient politicians reliant on patronage.
But they’re afraid now.
You know it’s true. Have you ever in your life seen such blind, hysterical panic on the normally-serene faces of the insatiable rich? Have you ever before this day witnessed the privileged and powerful – the captains of industry, the commanders of armies, the self-proclaimed “masters of the universe” – in such abject, frenzied terror, cajoling and pleading and warning and bullying, saying anything they can think of to stop us?
Why do you think that is? Is it because they’re scared FOR us – they who’ve never previously cared about anything except our votes and our money, they who despise the frail and torment the vulnerable? Or is it because they’re scared OF us?
They have not been this weak in three centuries, and they will never be this weak again in our lifetimes. For let there be no mistake: they will not allow this unexpected, unforeseen peril, this democracy no longer de-fanged but suddenly red in tooth and claw, to threaten them twice.]
http://wingsoverscotland.com/us-now-or-never/#more-61777
CommSec @CommSec 4m
A “no” vote on the Scottish Referendum on independence should see GBP outperform the EUR^TP Iress #ausbiz
Shorter banks version: We will make heaps of money if independence is a no.
William
Presumably it is not compulsory to vote in this poll. So with the result likely to be fairly close, the turnout by each side could be a critical factor couldn’t it?
Diogenes, see about a fifth of the way down Antony Green’s page for the various council’s declaration times. Basically, it’s going to take a while. I’m not sure of the extent to which indications of the progress of the count will emerge before the declarations, if any. I do know that there won’t be any exit polls.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/
No, voting isn’t compulsory, but one suspects turnout will be scarcely less than it would have been if it was.
I have a feeling that this turnout will top any of the national or Scottish election turnouts. I’ve been reading a few blogs and there seems to be an excitement because of the sheer historic nature of the occasion.
Reading the blogs – not scientific, I know – but it is possible the “Yes” vote could get up. If it does, or if it is “No”, then I hope it’s not a knife-edge result as I fear that would have the potential to divide Scotland whilst the recriminations unfold.
Anecdotally, from my relatives in Scotland, there has been a lot of bitterness already between the two camps.
Having lived here for just over 50 years, and happy to be an Australian citizen, I still feel a sentimental tug at the heartstrings whenever I think of Scotland. After all, I did spend my “growing up” there and have visited about 10 times since the family moved here.
I’ll be there again in 8 weeks so it will be interesting to hear what the “buzz” is, whatever today’s result brings.
I think the Westminster elite has ignored most of the country for a long time and swamprat’s quotation @ 142 is quite apt. I can’t think even the north or west of England has much love for their south-eastern cousins, going all the way back to Thatcher, or even before. The Tories have all been toffee-nosed t***ts and Blair wasn’t much better.
Alan Renwick’s done the definitive analysis looking at past turnouts. http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/readingpolitics/2014/09/12/will-scotland-set-a-turnout-record-your-definitive-guide/
Traffic for Yes campaign seems higher on websites/social media:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2014/sep/18/scottish-independence-referendum-polling-day-live
But not sure if that will translate into votes.
[I do know that there won’t be any exit polls.]
No exit polls!!!
What has this world come to???
@148 – considering the Yes voters skew younger and more tech savvy, that’s not too surprising.