ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The latest monthly automated phone poll from ReachTEL finds no change on two-party preferred, but reflects the trend elsewhere in having the Greens up and Palmer United down.

ReachTEL’s monthly federal poll for the Seven Network is unchanged on the previous result in putting Labor ahead 51-49 on two-party preferred, and is similarly stable with respect to the major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition on 41.6% (up 0.4%) and Labor on 37.4% (up 0.1%). Reflecting other polling over this time, it has the Greens up (by 0.7% to 10.5%) and Palmer United down (by 1.4% to 5.3%). There are also leadership ratings which find a shift from poor to the intermediate result of satisfactory in Tony Abbott’s case, and questions on Iraq which show support for sending military planes but opposition to sending troops. In a separately published release today derived from the same poll, ReachTEL found stronger support than I might have anticipated for parliamentary seats being reserved for indigenous Australians, with 36.7% supportive and 43.1% opposed. As usual, this was an automated phone poll with a big sample of 3470, conducted last night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,365 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Well, there you have it …. all the fear and hysterics of Abbott’s War on Terror hasn’t moved the Newspoll needle hardly at all = 51% to 49% TPP to the ALP.

    Fall back and regroup on that front, and perhaps try a flanking manoeuvre, Abbott.

  2. Well that shows how little I know about football all year long as a diehard West Coast fan I’ve been complaining about that useless Matt Pridis and he goes along and wins the Brownlow.

  3. I got pretty close – this is what I predicted this morning:

    [I am going with Newspoll to remain at status quo, ie: 52% to 48% TPP to the ALP, with Abbott to be slightly ahead of the lugubrious Shorten in the preferred PM metric, and Abbott’s dissatisfaction to be improved a bit, but still over 50%.]

    2PP out by 1, but spot on with PPM and Abbott dissatisfaction.

  4. [1343


    No I agree with Sortius on this one.

    I said it when Afghanistan was invaded, & I’ll say it again now: welcome to the modern crusades #qanda

    As a conflict, we have a long way to go before we can match the Crusades. Apart from that, I don’t think the religious dimensions apply.

    Britain also tried to exert itself in Afghanistan in the 19th century for strategic and imperialist reasons.

    [Anglo-Afghan Wars, also called Afghan Wars, three conflicts (1839–42; 1878–80; 1919) in which Great Britain, from its base in India, sought to extend its control over neighbouring Afghanistan and to oppose Russian influence there.]

    Anglo-American interference in Persian affairs – a factor that cannot be underestimated in the subsequent history of the region – stemmed from the significance of both the oil industry and the desire to contain the former Soviet Union.

    At another level, however, the analogy is worth reflecting on. The Christian crusades ended in utter disaster:

    [The Fourth Crusade resulted in the sack of Constantinople by the Roman Catholics, effectively ending the chance of reuniting the Christian church by reconciling the East–West Schism and leading to the weakening and eventual fall of the Byzantine Empire to the Ottomans.]

    Inevitably, the Anglo-American campaign/s of the current era will also fail. The Iranian Revolution expelled the US from Persia. The Sunni Revolution will expel the West and its cohorts from at least some of the one-time Ottoman territories.

    Predictable as this is, no-one can foresee what may yet happen in Turkey or in the Gulf and North Africa.

    [In 1095 Pope Urban II proclaimed the First Crusade with the stated goal of restoring Christian access to holy places in and near Jerusalem. Many historians and some of those involved at the time, like Saint Bernard of Clairvaux, give equal precedence to other papal-sanctioned military campaigns undertaken for a variety of religious, economic, and political reasons, such as the Albigensian Crusade, the Aragonese Crusade, the Reconquista, and the Northern Crusades.

    Following the First Crusade there was an intermittent 200-year struggle for control of the Holy Land, with six more major crusades and numerous minor ones. In 1291, the conflict ended in failure with the fall of the last Christian stronghold in the Holy Land at Acre, after which Roman Catholic Europe mounted no further coherent response in the east.]

  5. [1347

    Tim Wilson has been a model of reticence.

    Actually I was only thinking the other week that since his appointment you NEVER hear from him. He’s gone from being on the ABC or some other media outlet every other day to giving us all dead air.]

    I have sent him a number of emails on matters relating to free speech. He seems to have lost his passion and now finds ways to excuse the Government’s suppression of free speech. So much for Liberty.

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