Friday, September 19
For literally anything you need to know about what to expect and when, Antony Green’s guide can’t be beat. Basically, we can’t expect any official results until about 3pm AEST, though presumably some manner of informal indication of how the count is going might emerge. There will not be any exit polls, but there is talk that a retrospective opinion poll might be conducted (how did you vote rather than how will you). The one final poll out was, as noted below, from Ipsos MORI, which was a phone poll of 980 respondents showing yes on 45% and no on 50%, rounding out to 53-47. I couldn’t be bothered running the poll tracker charts again because the result of the poll after bias adjustment was right on the trend, at 51.2% for no. My personal feeling is that no is likely to do it a little more easily than that, but only time will tell. The map to the right is derived from regional level polling data over the past few weeks from Survation and ICM, to give at least a broad-brush idea of where the independence cause is weakest and strongest. The actual results will emerge at the level of Scotland’s 32 local government authorities – at the link above, Antony Green maps their past voting behaviour, since support for the Scottish National Party is very likely a good proxy for how the referendum vote will go.
Thursday, September 18
9pm
A few hours after polls open, one final poll from Ipsos MORI – 53-47 to no. Ninety-five per cent report they will vote, which by early reports of turnout can almost be believed.
Overview
Okay, to tidy up the mess below: we’ve had 51-49 from the very authoritative Ipsos MORI, a phone poll with a sample of 1405; two online polls at 52-48, one from YouGov with a bumper sample of 3237, the other from Panelbase with 1004; and a phone poll from Survation, for which I assume the sample was about 1200 given such was the case in its only previous phone poll, at 53-47. The Survation survey in particular is very fresh, having been conducted entirely within the last 24 hours. Pumping all that into the poll aggregate is slightly better for yes than you might think, since Ipsos MORI and YouGov both get bias adjusted about 1.4% towards yes, and weighted heavily in the overall result. I’m a bit nervous about this – those bias adjustments seem excessive – but the current reading, which you may take or leave, is 51.2% no, 48.8% yes.
Earlier
UPDATE 4: Survation has it at 53-47.
UPDATE 3: YouGov has it at 52-48. And the fun’s not over, because Survation have just revealed they’re about to lay on a surprise phone poll.
UPDATE 2: Mike Smithson of Political Betting tweets: “So 4 pollsters have NO on 52% and 2 on 51%. Maybe they are wrong but at least they are all wrong together”. The implication, I believe, being that we may be seeing a little bit of herding going on.
UPDATE: The Ipsos MORI poll turns out to be a nailbiter – 51% no, 49% yes. This is important because it’s a phone poll rather than online, and Ipsos MORI did a particularly good job of calling the last Scottish parliamentary election. YouGov to come in a few more hours, and then I’ll give the poll aggregate another run.
A new poll from Panelbase does nothing to relieve the monotony, once again producing a result of 52-48 in favour of no. However, this is the best 52-48 so far for the no camp, as Panelbase has been the most yes-leaning of the regularly reporting pollsters. The full numbers are 49.5% no, 45.4% yes, 5.1% don’t know. Full results here. The eagerly awaited Ipsos MORI poll will be along at 3am EST, followed by the final YouGov poll at 5am.
Wednesday, September 17
Three new polls have come in overnight – from Survation, Opinium and ICM – and every one of them finds no with a lead of 52-48. My poll tracker (methodology explained in the entry below from Saturday) now has no leading 51.7% to 48.3%, slightly higher than the 51.4% to 48.6% recorded following Sunday’s polls. More tellingly, the trendlines provide a fairly clear indication that the momentum to yes which was evident over a period of weeks has tapered off:
Of the three pollsters to have reported new results, Survation has the no lead narrowing from its result on Sunday, which had it at 54-46; Opinium also narrows slightly from a poll on Sunday, which had it at 53-47; while ICM is much better for no this time around, its previous poll being a small-sample outlier with yes leading 54-46. All three polls were conducted online; Mike Smithson at Political Betting says that, based on past form, the one we should be hanging out on is tomorrow’s final phone poll from Ipsos MORI. I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday considering the possibility that the polls might just have it all wrong.
Some further findings from Opinium: 50% do not trust that new devolution powers in the event of a no vote will be delivered as promised; 47% think Scotland will keep the pound against 37% who don’t; 44% think Alex Salmond should resign as First Minister if no wins (which I find very odd); and 45% think independence will damage the Scottish economy.
Sunday, September 13
No less than four new polls have reported overnight, of which two have “no” with reasonable solid leads of six or eight points, one is lineball, and one is the best poll yet to emerge for yes. These are reviewed in detail below, but first we take an updated look at the poll tracker. This puts the current result at 51.4% for no and 48.6% for yes, all but unchanged on the 51.2% and 48.8% recorded yesterday (based on like-for-like methodological comparison). An outline of the methodology was provided yesterday, in the bottom half of this post.
The polls in turn:
• The good news for the independence camp first: ICM has produced the second poll to show the yes vote in front, following on from the first of last week’s surveys by YouGov, and by a not inconsiderable margin – 49% to 42%, rounding out 54-46 after exclusion of the undecided. Unlike yesterday’s ICM poll, this one uses its usual online methodology. The caveat here is the unusually small sample of 705. Also, as noted below, ICM has been one of the more yes-friendly pollsters, such that the poll tracker adjusts it downwards by 2.0%.
• An online panel poll by Survation, which has tended to come in at the middle of the range, has no at 47.0% and yes at 40.8%, for a rounded result of 54-46 to no. The poll was commissioned by the pro-union Better Together campaign. Whereas the bulk of the polling for the referendum has been online, this one was conducted by telephone, from Wednesday to Friday, with a sample of 1044. As was the case with TNS yesterday, this is a first phone poll from an outfit whose previous polling was conducted online.
• Opinium is an established online pollster which has made its first entry on the referendum, this being a survey of 1055 respondents. Its result is a lot closer to Survation’s than ICM’s, with 45% for yes and 49%, rounding out to 53-47.
• Panelbase in the Sunday Times has no on 50.6% and yes on 49.4%, but given its relative “yes” lean in the past, it’s comes out similarly to Survation and Opinium so far as the poll tracker is concerned.
Saturday, September 12
It’s now less than a week until Scotland’s independence referendum, which will be held on Thursday with polling stations to close at 10pm local time, or 7am Friday on the east coast of Australia. An official result won’t be expected until mid-afternoon our time. Before that time, the 32 local authorities that will be taking care of the business end of proceedings will report their results, which I guess we can expect to be done more promptly in the cities than the country.
The latest poll out this evening is an ICM poll for The Guardian which confirms the recent trend of being too close to call – 42% no, 40% yes and 17% don’t know, panning out to a headline figure of 51-49 with the exclusion of the undecided. According to Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report, we can expect a result reasonably soon from Panelbase, which I have determined to be one of the more “yes”-friendly pollsters. We might then see a relative lull before heavy-hitters YouGov and Ipsos MORI hold off until their final results nearer the big day, although there will surely be other results around the place between now and then.
My own polling tracker, which is laid out below, currently has “no” in the lead with 51.6%, but there is no sign that the trend to “yes” is levelling off. As I shall discuss, it would have been more like 51.3% if I had treated the latest poll differently, as maybe I should have.
A few things that have caught my eye:
• For those of you who know your way around Scotland, The Guardian offers mapped results of a year’s worth of Ipsos MORI polling in eye-watering detail.
• John Curtice, a political scientist of some renown, considers the contention popular in the “yes” camp that pollsters are under-representing respondents who don’t normally vote, whom they expect will give their cause a boost. However, Curtice finds that past non-voters who have been polled are leaning quite strongly towards no.
• Stephen Fisher at Elections Etc observes polling before 16 constitutional referenda in Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Quebec, Scotland, Sweden, Britain and Wales (not us, alas), and notes there “does not seem to be a precedent for a close referendum at which final polls underestimated the Yes vote” (he in fact said “overestimated” but if you read the sentence in context, this was clearly erroneous).
Now to my own poll tracker. The methodology runs roughly as follows: 1) Calculate accuracy ratings for each pollster based on the performance of their polls in the last week of the campaigns for the 2014 European, 2011 Scottish and 2010 Westminster elections; 2) Run a local area regression on the results with each poll weighted as per the relevant pollsters’ accuracy rating multiplied by the sample size; 3) Use the trend result thus produced to derive bias measures for each pollster, by averaging the deviation of their poll results from the trend; 4) Correct the pollsters’ results accordingly and run the regression again.
The bias adjustments made to the various pollsters’ “yes” results are as follows: Ipsos Mori +1.6%; YouGov +1.6%; TNS +0.6%; Survation -0.7%; ICM -1.5%; Panelbase -2.5%; Angus Reid -4.4%. The complication I mentioned earlier is that the latest ICM poll was conducted by telephone, whereas the nine previous polls from which I have derived its bias adjustment were online polls. I have nonetheless decided to apply their existing adjustment to the latest result. Since this poll is, together with the most recent YouGov, the very latest result in the model, and the bias adjustment used is a not inconsiderable penalty to “yes”, the effect is non-trivial. If no bias adjustment is applied to this poll, the “no” result comes down to 51.2%. If the poll is removed altogether, it is 51.3%.
A couple of further points to be noted. YouGov’s stunning poll result on Monday showing yes in the lead was a real outlier from a normally no-leaning pollster, and it shows up in the charts as the only data point with yes above 50%. Another poll from YouGov a few days later had no back in front. This was inevitably reported in terms of the momentum for yes having stalled, but that’s not the picture that emerges when the polling is aggregated. Panelbase’s polling before the start of this year had an enormous lean in favour of yes which has since been corrected, so the earlier results have been excluded. Angus Reid is, or has been, a fairly major pollster in Britain, but there has been no Scottish independence polling from it since August last year. Should it re-emerge in the next few days, I will have to think twice about applying the 4.4% correction noted above.
Am I right in thinking that a higher % of registered voters will vote in this election/referendum voluntarily than in our compulsory voting election?
@151 – we get about 94-95% turnout in elections. You have 96% of Scots 16 and over registered for this referendum. I’m expecting turnout of between 85-90%, which would still exceed turnout records by a massive degree.
Last poll puts Yes on 47%, No on 53%
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Follow
Our last poll on #indyref No at 53% and Yes at 47%. 95% say they will vote to day for @standardnews
[Am I right in thinking that a higher % of registered voters will vote in this election/referendum voluntarily than in our compulsory voting election?]
Likely, yes.
Some of the “yes” campaigners state that the reason they want independence is because they’re unhappy with the way the population of Metropolitan England drowns out the voice of Scotland (or any other population in the UK.
If this comes to a no vote, will the proponents for the reform of the House of the Lord see this as an opportunity to push for a reform into a House that balances state interests like the Australian Senate?
[@151 – we get about 94-95% turnout in elections. You have 96% of Scots 16 and over registered for this referendum.]
We get ~94% of Registered Voters turning out, with ~92% of the eligible population registering.
Scotland has ~97% of the eligible population registered for this vote, so if turnout is ~89% they will beat us…
@156 – I stand corrected.
John Curtice, elections expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, tweets this final verdict from the poll of polls: Yes 48%, No 52%.
[“Am I right in thinking that a higher % of registered voters will vote in this election/referendum voluntarily than in our compulsory voting election?”
Likely, yes.]
Hmm, no. It’s quite likely that fewer *RVs* will vote, but likely that more of the VAP will vote.
One thing for sure that people everywhere might learn from Scotland. If you have a message say it in song.
No exit polls?
How backward.
What percentage of Australia’s housing stock is currently unoccupied? What implications does this figure have for the claim that Australia has a housing shortage?
Tax policies make housing an artificially attractive class of asset to buy; banks and non-bank lenders are willing to lend excessive amounts as long as the perception remains that prices can only go up. The banks’ current profits depend on increasing their mortgage lending significantly every year. Their loans to businesses – you know, organizations with productive potential – are a small share of their lending activity.
Instead of issuing vague delphic pronouncements about the dangers of a credit-driven real estate bubble, shouldn’t the Reserve Bank limit lenders to lending home buyers no more than a fixed multiple of a property’s annual rental?
Shouldn;t the capital gains discounts and mortgage interest deductions for real estate be removed? Why should speculative investment in existing housing stock be subsidized throug tax expenditures?
Call me old-fashioned but isn’t the chief purpose of a housing market to house people? Not to produce windfall capital gains to owners and investors. Not to deliver large profits for banks and real estate agencies. Not to divert investment from productive uses.
Sorry – wrong thread.
Pollster Peter Kellner: “At risk of looking utterly ridiculous in a few hours time I would say it’s a 99% chance of a No victory” #newsnight
So, how many of us can pronounce the name of the Outer Hebrides Council “Na h-Eileanan an Iar”?
Much more melodic sounding than the boring “Highlands” Council which has oodles towns and villages with wonderful names within it.
Taking a long time to get any results at all.
Allan
Not me
I have ancestors from all over Scotland – from Wik and Inverness as well as the Lowlands. So I guess I have all the Scottish peoples somewhere in my history.
Have you read AG’s description of the counting process? That explains why.
daretotread
It’s Nah hay-lannanan laar!
I’m from Fife myself so I know nothing – just coal mines. LOL.
Just a random picture I got off Reddit.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallace_Monument#Braveheart_statue
A likeness of William Wallace with Mel Gibson’s face on it makes it really unpopular with the locals and often vandalised. Naturally, it was put in a cage to stop further vandalism.
BBC has a site giving live updates on the Scottish referendum.
http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/live
Weird early report from Glasgow
[Early reports suggest Glasgow may have voted 54% “Yes” to 46% “No”. However, “Yes” campaigners look a bit disappointed as they hoped the result would be more in their favour.]
Good result for YES if true (massive region)- though seems they were hoping for more to balance results elsewhere?
They needed to win Glasgow by a larger margin than that. Considering Edinburgh and especially the suburbs in Lothian seems to have a decently-sized No vote.
Yes based on that Glasgow result I expect a solid No vote
Well, yes wins either way: they’ve forced the UK elites to devo max in this campaign.
Though I personally hope they go all the way today!
Clackmannanshire first up: Win for NO, 54%.
1st in
Clackmannanshire 53% NO
First result ….
Clackmannanshire – No 53.8%, yes on 46.2%
Here’s the result for Clackmannanshire.
Yes: 16,350 (46.2%)
No: 19,036 (53.8%)
This is disappointing for yes. It was one of their best hopes.
But the number of votes is actually tiny. It only accounts for 0.9% of the Scottish electorate.
Speaking as someone of mixed Scottish/ English heritage I’ve been very on the fence but edging towards supporting Yes. In the past and when I still lived at home I was a real proponent of independence, but within the EU. Alex Salmond who has often been one of my favourite UK politicians turned me off during this debate with his blasé dismissal of the EU issue. I do not believe Scotland’s entry to the EU would be easy at all, particularly given Spain’s current position with Catalonia.
Over the last week my family who are voting, whom I had always thought would cancel each other out have all but one ended up as No voters. I suspect the Clackmannanshire result is indicative that No is going to win comfortably, and to my surprise I’m OK with this. I do think a comfortable win either way is better than a close vote either way.
I’m also of course very happy about the moves that will come to devolution max, and the ructions this will create for the Tories.
Orkney Islands – 67% ‘no’.
57.8% to no camp vs 42.2% to yes camp.
So far according to Guardian.
What a boring way to run an election. After 4.5 hours we have results from just two small electorates because they do a full count in each one before they tell you anything. They need to look to Australia for how to do an election night properly.
One of the strongest Yes areas, Western Isles, votes NO.
Western Isles – large No majority- all over I think
triton @ 182. Was that a joke?
Anyway to be pedantic, it’s not an election – it’s a referendum. When we do a referendum do we report on bits of Queensland or WA separately as the count comes in? Maybe we do. It seems a long time since we had one.
Inverclyde 50.1% No to 49.9% yes.
That ust require a re-count!!
Inverclyde in! 50.1% No 49.9% Yes. Interesting as it is really part of the greater Glasgow region.
Yes, think that old nag ‘fear’ will win again!!!
swamprat. I read somewhere there would be no recounts – it’s not part of the system.
ok Alan…… what a funny system they have.
[South Lanarkshire count
Posted at 03:25
A trend amongst spoilt papers here is “No” written in the “No” box which is being taken to be a double negative but doesn’t count as one for “Yes” either.]
A job for Fran, I think!!
Re Inverclyde. Just 86 votes difference! Perhaps the Yes or No teams should have galvanised a few more of the roughly 9,000 who didn’t bother to vote.
They will need a massive yes majority in Glasgow….. seems unlikely
Allan Moyes, why would you think it’s a joke? In Australia for each electorate we get progress results all the way through the count (after 1% counted, 3%, 17% etc.), and the first ones come in quite soon. Much more interesting than over there. Yes, I get that it’s a referendum, not a general election, but I thought they did the same for seats at general elections.
With the probable No vote winning. I think the SNP has a chance to translate the loss into more votes in the General Election.
Basically play on fact that the three main parties promised more devolution in the result of a No. Keep the bastards honest.
Sorry Triton. Perhaps I should have used the word “joke”. Many countries have different ways of counting election/referendum results. Some take days to get to a result or even days to vote.
I realise we are keen followers on this site but I doubt if we can arrange a country to report its results for our entertainment. It’s the end result that counts. Give it another half hour to an hour – you’ll probably see a few more on the board.
Gareth
My impression, from what I have read, is that in the event of No getting up, the UK govt has the legislation basically ready to go through the process before the next general election. They would certainly not want to give the SNP any ammo.
Massive no vote in Dundee – the Yes campaign can not claim a close vote and campaign for another referendum any time soon.
Dundee votes Yes – just.
Dundee 57% YES. Has ever so briefly put YES ahead nominally on 50.05%. So log on now YES supporters and get a screen shot!
Sorry the other way around – silly me