Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research finds the Greens gaining a point for the second week in a row, this time carrying Labor with it on two-party preferred.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in Labor, their two-party lead now at 53-47 after a long stretch at 52-48. The major parties are in fact stable on the primary vote, at 39% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, but the Greens are up a point for the second week in a row to 11%, a gain that has been well in line with other polling.

The poll also includes Essential’s occasional results on the government’s handling of various issue areas, and given the last such results were published in February, they find the government taking a considerable knock – with the telling exception of “relations with other countries”, for which the net rating has gone from minus 3% to plus 15%. However, the government is off 15 points on education and schools, 14 on social welfare and health services, 12 on climate change and nine on managing the economy.

Further questions find strong opposition to buying submarines from Japan (28% support, 51% oppose), a slight majority against providing military aid to the Ukraine (36% support, 42% oppose) and opposition to the deferral of superannuation increases (29% approve, 49% disapprove).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

653 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Today in The Herald Sun there was the article that had a premise that parents wanted NAPLAN tests scrapped. The heading was saying that, the first paragraph was saying that.

    But once you dig deeper into the article, only 46% of the parents said they wanted NAPLAN tests gone. No matter how you looked at their data, more people were OK with tests staying than those that wanted it scrapped. Somehow, none of that mattered, so the hun got the heading they wanted and went with publishing it.

    Rubbish journalism afaic

  2. Catherine King MP ‏@CatherineKingMP 1h
    Labor welcomes Australia’s increased contribution towards tackling the worsening Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

    Does Labor also welcome the $7.6B cut to foreign aid?

    Enough of the backslapping.

  3. WWP @ 436

    Yeah you go tell that to Lloyds and the Royal Bank Of Scotland.

    You sound like the “chicken little” accusations of the Greens with climate change.

    Stick with financial security. Scotland vote NO 😎

  4. Corio@446

    Deja vu all over again re the Canberra light rail project.

    “Liberal leader Jeremy Hanson introduced a note of uncertainty over the project, warning companies that the Liberals would scrap it if they won government in 2016.

    “He called on the government not to lock the project in by signing contracts before the election.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberras-780m-light-rail-line-gets-final-go-ahead-business-case-to-be-released-20140915-10gzr3.html

    There will be a big contrast though if the business case for this one gets released.

  5. Re Constitutional Indigenous Recognition.

    PM Abbott showing his true union jack colours by avoiding a timeline for referendum.
    The man is truly a fraud.

  6. Barack Obama has told us where he was born (a condition of him holding office).
    Tony Abbott has not told us when he renounced his English citizenship (a condition of him holding office)

  7. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@459

    Barack Obama has told us where he was born (a condition of him holding office).
    Tony Abbott has not told us when he renounced his English citizenship (a condition of him holding office)

    Somebody knows. It is only a matter of time before it leaks.

  8. Just got the PR blurb from my electricity supplier about the great carbon tax savings bonanza delivered unto us by Tones The Munificent…

    Not even $100 a year. Let alone the several hundred, and the glorious sunny land of peace and prosperity, that I was promised. 🙁

    ——–

    Abbott has to resolve the citizenship issue.

    If he has done the paperwork properly, then it is a trivial matter to prove it.

    If he has not, then there is a serious problem, politically and constitutionally, and not to mention with his grotesque sense of entitlement and superiority, his belief that the law of the land only applies to plebeian others.

    This sort of basic admin stuff cannot be left undetermined. The ‘i’s have to dotted, and the ‘t’s crossed, on the public record. Same for anybody. Same as the Cons would be demanding if the shoe was on the other foot, and a lot more viciously.

    OTOH, Shorten, and Labor generally, are rightly staying out of it. Raising this issue is best done by others, until it moves nearer centre stage in its own right. Apart from any other reason, it may be a trap by Abbott to draw the criticism out, waste people’s time and energy, and then announce he had done it years ago, so why all the fuss?

  9. Joke!

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reviewing the performance of his frontbench but has backed their first year in government, saying his ministers will be getting either As or A pluses.

    Speaking in the Northern Territory on Wednesday, Mr Abbott said it was “perfectly normal” to examine the performance of senior MPs, and 12 months after forming government was an appropriate time to do it.
    The comments came after media reports on Wednesday that Mr Abbott was holding one-on-one meetings with ministers to identify poor performers after a difficult post-budget period for the government.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-gives-top-marks-to-ministers-saying-all-deserve-as-or-a-pluses-20140917-10i4jd.html#ixzz3DXwT8M1P

  10. imacca @ 441 (and others): The Abbott “birther” issue gives rise to two quite distinct questions.

    The first is whether Mr Abbott has renounced his UK citizenship, or has taken all possible steps to do so.

    The second is whether he has, in the past, lied about his status in official documentation: specifically, his nomination forms for election.

    In many countries, candidates are obliged to lodge documents with their nominations which prove their entitlement to run; and the relevant electoral commission makes a decision on that before they get on the ballot paper.

    In Australia, that hasn’t been the approach taken, because there has in the past been room for uncertainty about the scope of some of the constitutional disqualifications (though not, since the 1999 case of Sue v. Hill, about the disqualifying character of UK citizenship). So here, the AEC is obliged to take at face value the declaration made by a candidate that he or she is qualified. See Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, ss. 172(1), at http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s172.html.

    The system is therefore heavily reliant on the honesty and truthfulness of candidates. This is reinforced by the AEC in its publications: see, for example, http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/backgrounders/files/2010-eb-constitutional-disqual-intending-candidates.pdf

    Therein, the AEC notes among other things that:

    “Candidates intending to nominate for election to the Australian Parliament must ensure that they are qualified, and not disqualified, to stand for election under the provisions of the Act.”;

    that:

    “Intending candidates should also ensure that they are not disqualified by s. 44 of the Constitution. The disqualifications that most commonly arise are in s. 44(i), relating to dual/plural citizenship; and in s. 44 (iv), relating to office of profit under the Crown.”;

    and that:

    “Division 137 of the Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth) (the Criminal Code) makes it an offence to provide false or misleading information or documents in purported compliance with a law of the Commonwealth, with a maximum penalty of 12 months imprisonment.”.

    People, including Watts MP, can make their own judgements on whether a Brit slipping through the cracks would be a major or minor issue. But from my perspective, it’s much more important to know whether the truth was told in nomination forms, since if that wasn’t the case, the integrity of the electoral process would have been significantly undermined by the cheating involved. Lying in official documents isn’t that much different to perjury.

    Finally, if such a lie could be proven, a conviction under section 137 of the Criminal Code would potentially give rise to another constitutional disqualification, that applied by section 44(ii) to a person who “has been convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer.”

  11. JustMe

    [Not even $100 a year. Let alone the several hundred, and the glorious sunny land of peace and prosperity, that I was promised. ]

    I wrote back saying that I was disgusted that the carbon price had been abolished and that they should forward any savings accruing to me to a fund controlled by a group determined to establish new renewable capacity in Australia.

  12. [ If he has done the paperwork properly, then it is a trivial matter to prove it. ]

    Yup, knock it on the head completely and move on. Hey i loathe the creep but if he proves he’s played by the rules i’m happy to forget about that particular issue.

    If he’s not happy to do that it looks sus. 🙂

  13. [ it’s much more important to know whether the truth was told in nomination forms, ]

    In a case like this its not the act that gets yah, its the cover up. And thats why he has to show, openly, transparently and with ease that all is proper.

    No excuses.

  14. [WWP @ 436
    Yeah you go tell that to Lloyds and the Royal Bank Of Scotland.
    You sound like the “chicken little” accusations of the Greens with climate change.
    Stick with financial security. Scotland vote NO ]

    Lol – how far ahead would they be not having to bail out dodgy financial institutions next time they go broke. You’d have to be a bl00dy idiot to pay any attention to either of the institutions you listed.

  15. lizzie

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reviewing the performance of his frontbench but has backed their first year in government, saying his ministers will be getting either As or A pluses.]

    What does Abbott think he is doing?

    So now he is a school teacher!

    Add this to all the other stupid things like Team Australia etc the question I ask is how on earth did he ever become a Rhodes Scholar?

    I am sure Daddy must have paid for it.

  16. [Former treasurer Peter Costello has warned of widespread hardship when the property sector’s rapid growth inevitably slows in an economy that already has nervous consumers whose real wages are falling.
    At a property industry event in Sydney on Wednesday, Mr Costello said Australia’s luck was “beginning to run out” and the country had big questions to grapple with in the near future.
    “We’ve got anxious consumers who are saving money, with real wages falling in a country where incomes have peaked.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/luck-running-out-peter-costello-warns-of-hard-days-ahead-as-property-market-slows-20140917-10i0t7.html#ixzz3DY8epoJY

  17. I want to know which outcomes he’s measuring and with what assessment tools. What was the rubric for the various possible grades? Was this rubric plain to those being examined at the time they received their appointments?

  18. WWP

    How far ahead would WHO be by not bailing out financial institutions…Scotland?

    I think we better leave it that you don’t what you’re talking about.

  19. MTBW

    Academic ability was only a third or a quarter of the criteria. Being a sports chap helped as did having the right people support claims you are chocka with the moral fibre. Service to others was in there somewhere but ?????? how he would have ticked that box.

  20. I doubt very much Abbott will be doing any grading at all (if he did it’s just be an aggregate of the ‘report cards’ that were in the papers).

    This little exercise be a purely Credlin affair.

  21. Gotta laff. While declaring the Abbott-birther stuff is nonsense and shouldn’t be taken seriously, Labor has effectively given the story a bit of nudge along.

    Cute.

  22. Mind you, if it was not in their financial interests for Scotland to remain in the UK, the likes of Lloyds and the Royal Bank Of Scotland would be totally in favour of their independence.

    And financial markets have acted at the consequences of a Yes vote.

    It’s a lot more complicated than many have realised.

    Don’t make your lives more complicated and difficult – Scotland don’t think like a Green, vote NO 🙂

  23. [ I want to know which outcomes he’s measuring and with what assessment tools. What was the rubric for the various possible grades? Was this rubric plain to those being examined at the time they received their appointments? ]

    abbott is talking utter crap as usual.

    A or A Plus ?

    – Hockey ?
    – Brandis ?
    – Sinodinos ?
    – Dutton ?
    – Johnston ?

    So abbott is *happy* with the performance of the above ?

    But its not abbott that has to be happy with them or not.

    Voters dish out the grades that matter.

  24. [And financial markets have acted at the consequences of a Yes vote.
    ]

    You seem to have forgotten the financial markets delivered us the GFC. Yet you treat them like infallible gods whose ever utterance is truth. If either of us has no idea at all it isn’t me sport.

  25. WWP

    So where would you be without financial markets and financial institutions.

    It’s like saying Essendon drug cheated so there should not be any AFL.

    Really, quit before you really get embarrassed.

  26. If every student is graded A or A+ then the system has been designed by one of those new age educators who promote no one is a failure and every child should get a prize.

  27. [Bit of a bummer if you just get an A then, if there’s only a choice of two grades…]

    Exactly what I was thinking – A means “You performed as well as George Brandis” which is damning with the faintest of praise.

  28. [WWP
    So where would you be without financial markets and financial institutions.
    It’s like saying Essendon drug cheated so there should not be any AFL.
    Really, quit before you really get embarrassed.]

    That is a pretty pathetic straw man you’ve created suggesting I am advocating no financial markets. I’m not sure if you have that limited comprehension ability (would be consistent with your child like acceptance of every utterance of a financial institution as infallible) or dishonest because you have been caught out using a really really stupid argument.

    The football comparison you must have gone to Frank C, no even he wouldn’t have come up with something so dumb.

    My only point was that you are advocating relying on two companies with a very dodgy history. In a context where the whole industry you are relying on without thought or analysis of you own dramatically failed just a few years ago.

    I’m just saying intelligent people don’t have to obey banks and that on recent history the intelligent people have a better record than the banks.

    I can keep this up forever I’ve not seen post so funny since Frank left us.

  29. [You are such an economically uneducated dumbwit – really!]

    Yeah I am. I only worked for a financial institution for a couple of years and was only chair of an audit committee for 6 years. biggest mistake the organization made during my tenure as a director was taking advice from ‘experts’ in the financial markets. cost us millions

    Back to your sporting metaphor and the Scottish referendum. I can make it work for you. Taking advice from a financial institution regarding Scottish independence is a bit like going to Essendon for drug advice when you are short of breath and light headed. Why would you do it?

  30. The Victorian government plans to sign contracts for the building of the $8 billion East West Link next week, a court has been told.

    A resident’s legal action to stop the controversial roadway failed in the Victorian Supreme Court last week but the decision is being appealed.

    State government barrister Mark Moshinksy QC told the Court of Appeal on Wednesday the proceedings were time sensitive, with the contracts due to be signed next week.

    Mr Moshinksy said the state was eager to sign the contracts before entering the formal caretaking period ahead of the November 29 election.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/vic-road-link-contracts-due-next-week-20140917-3fylx.html

  31. Abbott’s A & A+ ratings of ministers would be the biggest joke of the week.

    We don’t seem to know how he rated himself but presumably he got an A++++++++++.

  32. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reviewing the performance of his frontbench but has backed their first year in government, saying his ministers will be getting either As or A pluses.]

    Sounds like they’re all full-fee paying internationals at one of our new “private colleges”.

    Is he going chuck in a visa?

  33. IS supporters and the ebola virus both pose a potentially serious threat to Australia.

    IS – Abbott races in and raises the terrorist alert to high with massive publicity and sends troops to the Middle east at a cost of $600 million for the first year.

    Ebola – Abbott reluctantly increases Australian aid for fighting ebola from $1m to $8m (after massively cutting aid to Africa in the budget).

    In both the cases of IS and ebola, Obama is sending troops on a humanitarian basis. Abbott follows Obama on IS but ignores ebola.

    Abbott must think there are no votes in helping to fight ebola.

  34. What Tony Abbott and Kim Jong Un have in common – give yourself a glowing report.

    [NORTH Korean citizens are happy, independent and have civilised living standards coupled with a great quality of life.

    That’s the conclusion of a glowing 53,000 word report into the rogue nation’s human rights system, according to Pyongyang anyway.]

    http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/north-korea-gives-itself-a-glowing-human-rights-report-card/story-fnh81fz8-1227061747172

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