Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research finds the Greens gaining a point for the second week in a row, this time carrying Labor with it on two-party preferred.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in Labor, their two-party lead now at 53-47 after a long stretch at 52-48. The major parties are in fact stable on the primary vote, at 39% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, but the Greens are up a point for the second week in a row to 11%, a gain that has been well in line with other polling.

The poll also includes Essential’s occasional results on the government’s handling of various issue areas, and given the last such results were published in February, they find the government taking a considerable knock – with the telling exception of “relations with other countries”, for which the net rating has gone from minus 3% to plus 15%. However, the government is off 15 points on education and schools, 14 on social welfare and health services, 12 on climate change and nine on managing the economy.

Further questions find strong opposition to buying submarines from Japan (28% support, 51% oppose), a slight majority against providing military aid to the Ukraine (36% support, 42% oppose) and opposition to the deferral of superannuation increases (29% approve, 49% disapprove).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

653 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reviewing the performance of his frontbench but has backed their first year in government, saying his ministers will be getting either As or A pluses.]

    With Brandis as A-G, Abetz in Employment and Hockey looking after the Treasury?

    We truly live in a Bizarro World.

  3. That interview Defence Minister David Johnstone gave to Leigh Sales was in the Clarke & Dawe genre. Given that they weren’t supposed to be satirising the regime, it was simply ludicrous.

  6. So Abbott rates all his ministers A or A+ thereby putting the block on promising backbenchers (and women!) who are looking for promotion.
    What an amazing motivator!

  8. More from the Absurdistan Files:

    (1) Johnstone was for the heave-ho.
    (2) But, now that we have gone to war, sacking Johnstone would be a sign that the war is not going well.

    So… will the Death Cult save Johnstone from himself?

  12. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/17/renewable-energy-target-coalition-and-labor-no-closer-to-compromise?CMP=soc_568

    …Bill Shorten, the Labor leader, said he supported the jobs and investment that the RET has helped provide.

    “Renewable energy is a plus for Australia’s future,” he said on Wednesday. “But there’s no doubt that we’ve got to make sure vulnerable, emissions-intensive sectors like aluminium are carefully considered in any design of a renewable energy target…

    So, the signs are Bill Shorten may backflip on the ALP’s pre-election position of no change to the RET.

    We all know PM Abbott is a destructive fraud and liar of epic proportions… will be interesting to see if Bill Shorten rewards his historical backers at the expense of the RET and his integrity… ?

  18. 515

    Far fewer people give credibility to these ratings. Nobody sensible thinks the source is unbiased, unlike the Collateralised Debt Obligation ratings before the GFC.

  19. Madame Speaker Old Kero Head would definately be one of Piss N Moan Tones top triple A+-ers.

    The brilliant job she is doing riding shotgun for those on her right is unbeatable.

    I have not seen anything like it.

  22. [“We went on with rising living standards right through 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 after an initial readjustment and Australia boomed in a way we’ve never seen before,” Mr Costello told a property council event in Sydney.]

    Oh really? Funny how he was silent on this at the time!

    Didn’t fit with the Abbott/Hockey strategy of trash talking the economy.

  23. Can anyone remember Abbott a couple of weeks back saying he was not going to rate his govt after a year because if he said 7/10 then people would think thats admitting some problems but if he said 10/10 they might think him complacent or something similar.

    The lazy arrogant turkey. His own party would be marking plenty of things poorly. Let alone everyone else.

  24. [Can anyone remember Abbott a couple of weeks back saying he was not going to rate his govt after a year because if he said 7/10 then people would think thats admitting some problems but if he said 10/10 they might think him complacent or something similar.
    ]

    Even if he said it, he won’t be called out on such inconsistencies by our fishbowl memoried press gallery, that is for sure.

  25. [503
    Fran Barlow

    That interview Defence Minister David Johnstone gave to Leigh Sales was in the Clarke & Dawe genre. Given that they weren’t supposed to be satirising the regime, it was simply ludicrous.]

    I agree, Fran. It would have to rank as the least plausible statement of cause imaginable. It’s pretty obvious that the Defence and Foreign Affairs Departments have been telling their respective ministers that the there is no definable, discrete and winnable mission in Iraq and Syria, and that even if such a mission could be stated and were achievable, Australia is not equipped to pursue it.

    According to Johnston, the plan consists of doing that which “a right-thinking country” must, and that “winning will consist of “changing the minds” of the ISIL leadership.

    This is not a mission. Even Johnston seems to be aware of that.

  27. [502
    Bushfire Bill

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reviewing the performance of his frontbench but has backed their first year in government, saying his ministers will be getting either As or A pluses.]

    This is laughable and will only serve to remind voters that Abbott and Co are completely out of touch. Abbott has basically just said that woeful is the new black. I think he will find the public expect a higher standard than can be delivered by the LNP.

    This should be (and will be) interpreted as an unwitting admission of failure by an arrogant and incompetent idiot.

  28. Prime Minister
    The Hon Tony Abbott MP Rating: E. Comments: Tony has tried hard but just does not get it that he is a integrity-free zone, a policy flake, a war monger, and a complete failure as team leader. He should try being pope.

    Deputy Prime Minister
    Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development
    (Leader of the Nationals)
    The Hon Warren Truss MP Rating: E. Comments: Warren is polite but his policy settings are rooted in the first half of the last century.

    Minister for Foreign Affairs
    (Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party)
    The Hon Julie Bishop MP Rating: C-. Comments: Julie tries hard and is polite to staff. This is more than you can say for her behaviour towards various important foreign people and nations she has managed to piss off.

    Minister for Employment
    Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service
    (Leader of the Government in the Senate)
    Senator the Hon Eric Abetz Rating E. Warren needs to realize that he should actually try to decrease the unemployment rate not increase it. As for the APS, it is a completely demoralized shambles.

    Attorney-General
    Minister for the Arts
    (Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate)
    (Vice-President of the Executive Council)
    Senator the Hon George Brandis QC Rating: E. George is clueless, does not try very hard, and is not very nice. The only positive thing we can say about George is that he failed in his strenuous efforts to provide a clear run for bigots, xenophobes and racists.

    Treasurer
    The Hon Joe Hockey MP Rating E minus. Joe has presided over the worst ever budgetary shambles in Australian history.

    Minister for Agriculture
    (Deputy Leader of the Nationals)
    The Hon Barnaby Joyce MP Rating C. Barnaby has mostly shut up which is a big improvement on what he used to be like. He has also succeeded in getting lots of free money for farmers.

    Minister for Education
    (Leader of the House)
    The Hon Christopher Pyne MP Rating: E. The only good thing we can say about Pyne’s contribution to the quality of Australian education is that he has failed to actually change much to date.

    Minister for Indigenous Affairs
    (Leader of the Nationals in the Senate)
    Senator the Hon Nigel Scullion Rating: E.

    Comments: Nigel has overseen one of the most massive cuts in government support for Indigenous Affairs since the Myall Creek Massacre. The administration of Indigenous Affairs within the Prime Minister’s portofolio is an utter shambles. There is no evidence whatsoever that the gap has closed to any extent anywhere after 12 months with Nigel in the saddle.

    Minister for Industry
    The Hon Ian Macfarlane MP Rating E. Comments: Were Ian’s job to be the destruction of Australian manufacturing he would get an A plus. Given a couple more years in the job Ian’s job will be done because there will be no more manufacturing.

    Minister for Social Services
    The Hon Kevin Andrews MP Rating: E. Comments: Kevin appears to think that ‘Social Services’ means screwing the old, the sick, the young, the homeless, the disabled and the poor. Were that true, Kevin would get an A plus.

    Minister for Communications
    The Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP Rating E. Comments: The smartest thing that Malcolm has done has been to invest in companies overseas which are doing overseas what Malcolm is stopping from happening in Australia. For the long term good of Australia he should consider a career in cat strangling.

    Minister for Health
    Minister for Sport
    The Hon Peter Dutton MP Rating E. Peter needs to understand that his job is not to make the top 1% of wealthy Australians even healthier while making everyone else sicker.

    Minister for Small Business
    The Hon Bruce Billson MP Rating: E. Bruce has ensured that small business was screwed with reduced depreciation allowances.

    Minister for Trade and Investment
    The Hon Andrew Robb AO MP Rating E. Andrew appears to think that it is his job to sell Australian national interests down the drain so that mineral exporters get a clear run.

    Minister for Defence
    Senator the Hon David Johnstone Rating E. Comments: Tries hard. David has yet to make a decision about anything but has accidentally turned himself into the Minister for Defence while we are at war. David appears to be undoing a fair bit of the hard yards that Smith did in terms of cleaning up the ADF. The uniforms are all over him.

    Minister for the Environment
    The Hon Greg Hunt MP Rating: E minus. There have been around 30 ministers for the environment but Greg is at the bottom of the list. Has actively promoted AGW with the opening of the biggest coal port in Australia, has compounded that with permitting the dumping of millions of tons of sludge in a world heritage area, and is doing his best to hand biodiversity to the pillagers in the states and territories.

    Minister for Immigration and Border Protection
    The Hon Scott Morrison MP Rating A. Comments. Scott has stopped the boats, verballed and bastardised his various victims, been responsible for unexplained deaths of several of his charges, and ignored serious burns on the arms of others under his charge. Scott is the only real winner for the Coalition, clearly expresses the Coalition’s vision for Australia, and should be promoted to Prime Minister asap.

    Minister for Finance
    Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann Rating C minus. Coming off the bench, Mathias has filled in gamely for Uncle Arthur while the latter was off clearing his name of corruption, a massive lack of accountability and what can only be regarded as questionable implementation of corporate governance standards.

    Outer Ministry

    Assistant Minister for Social Services
    (Manager of Government Business in the Senate)
    Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield Rating E: Comments. Mitch has been invisible.

    Assistant Minister for Employment
    (Deputy Leader of the House)
    The Hon Luke Hartsuyker MP Rating E: Comments: Luke has been invisible.

    Assistant Minister for Health
    (Deputy Leader of the Nationals in the Senate)
    Senator the Hon Fiona Nash Rating E: Comments: Fiona does some weird stuff but has otherwise made no positive contribution to the health of Australians.

    Minister for Veterans’ Affairs
    Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Centenary of ANZAC
    Special Minister of State
    Senator the Hon Michael Ronaldson Rating E. Comments: Michael has been responsible for such ludicrous wastes of money as providing medallians for the descendants of Australians who invaded German New Guinea one hundred years ago. Michael ignored the descendants of the strikers who halted the invasion force and also ignored the eye witness report that the Australian troops, once victorious, conducted a massacre of germans.

    Assistant Minister for Education
    The Hon Sussan Ley MP Rating C: Sussan is across her briefs and has morphed into an adequate parliamentary performer. Bare competence makes her look better than she really is. Will get promoted when Abbott shakes his duds loose.

    Minister for Human Services
    Senator the Hon Marise Payne Rating E. Marise shows no sign of understanding how to get the ‘human’ into Coalition policies and programs. She should do the right thing and resign in protest..

    Minister for Justice
    The Hon Michael Keenan MP Rating E. Comments: This Government does not ‘do’ justice and Michael is well suited to his task.

    Assistant Minister for Defence
    The Hon Stuart Robert MP Rating E. Comments: Who?

    Assistant Minister for Immigration and Border Protection
    Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women
    Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash Rating E. Comments: were it not sexist one would be tempted to state that Michaelia is all over the place like a ….

    Assistant Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development
    The Hon Jamie Briggs MP. Rating E. Comments: Jamie is good at rather fancying himself but his talents end there.

    Acting Assistant Treasurer
    Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann. Rating E: Comments: See Joe.

    Parliamentary Secretaries

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Agriculture
    Senator the Hon Richard Colbeck Rating E: Comments: Who? What?

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Industry
    The Hon Bob Baldwin MP Rating E: Comments. Useless.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Foreign Affairs
    Senator the Hon Brett Mason Rating E: Comments: Useless.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer
    The Hon Steven Ciobo MP. Rating E: Comments: See Joe.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Social Services
    Senator the Hon Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Rating E: Comments. Concetta provides substantial evidence that Tony has been wise not to promote women to the Coalition Cabinet.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment
    Senator the Hon Simon Birmingham. Rating E: Comments: See Greg.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Education
    Senator the Hon Scott Ryan. Rating E: Comments: See Chrissy.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Defence
    The Hon Darren Chester MP Rating E: Comments: May well not know that we are war.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Communications
    The Hon Paul Fletcher MP: Rating E: Comments: Paul Who? Paul What? Paul Where? Payl When? But most of all, Why Paul? and Why? are we paying him.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
    The Hon Josh Frydenberg MP. Rating E: Comments: Josh fancies himself but has achieved absolutely nothing of note.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
    The Hon Alan Tudge MP Rating E: Alan reminds one of a spare dick at a wedding.

    Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Finance
    The Hon Michael McCormack MP: Rating E: Comments: At least Michael is not Uncle Arthur.

  30. [This should be (and will be) interpreted as an unwitting admission of failure by an arrogant and incompetent idiot.]

    However you cut it up, the man is dangerously delusional. Either he genuinely believes his guff, or he thinks his mess can just be swept under the PR carpet with little more than bald faced denials and lies.

  34. imacca @ 441 (and others): The Abbott “birther” issue gives rise to two quite distinct questions.

    The first is whether Mr Abbott has renounced his UK citizenship, or has taken all possible steps to do so.

    The second is whether he has, in the past, lied about his status in official documentation: specifically, his nomination forms for election.

    Even Clive Palmer finds this too farfetched to entertain. Remember that Clive Palmer said that Wendy Deng is a Chinese spy and the Australian Electoral Commission is corrupt.

  35. 7.30 Report

    Well that interview of Joe by Leigh Sales shows things haven’t improved , just as weak & shallow as it was before Sales took time off.

  37. Given that as a collective, the cabinet can best be described as a bunch of reckless and malicious vandals, I’d definitely say those ratings by BW were generous.

    Really, you’d have to give them all N-Awards and toss them out.

  45. Boewar

    I like that post very muchess but really liked this:

    [Jamie is good at rather fancying himself but his talents end there.]

    Nailed the little sh*t. Sorry, for that very reason I hold a deep dislike of the man.

  46. Dio:

    I was reading about that at lunchtime today. Interesting too that in 2014 in excess of 40% of respondents believe rape happens because men can’t check their sexual urges. WTF?

  48. [I was reading about that at lunchtime today. Interesting too that in 2014 in excess of 40% of respondents believe rape happens because men can’t check their sexual urges. WTF?]

    Appalling.

    And of course, with such shockingly high figures, that means a good proportion of women themselves subscribe to such a view.

  49. [Posted Wednesday, September 17, 2014 at 7:43 pm | PERMALINK
    Nice work Boerwar! Did you get any help from Bluey?]

    I think we’d hoped Bluey was calamari by now!

  50. Joe ‘cat-calling after then PM Gillard down the hallway of her workplace’ Hockey has signed up to the White Ribbon campaign to stand up to violence against women.
    http://www.whiteribbon.org.au/standup

    Hopefully this signals a realisation on his part that his attitude towards women colleagues should not be tolerated in any workplace and is taking steps to improve his behaviour.

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