Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research finds the Greens gaining a point for the second week in a row, this time carrying Labor with it on two-party preferred.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in Labor, their two-party lead now at 53-47 after a long stretch at 52-48. The major parties are in fact stable on the primary vote, at 39% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, but the Greens are up a point for the second week in a row to 11%, a gain that has been well in line with other polling.

The poll also includes Essential’s occasional results on the government’s handling of various issue areas, and given the last such results were published in February, they find the government taking a considerable knock – with the telling exception of “relations with other countries”, for which the net rating has gone from minus 3% to plus 15%. However, the government is off 15 points on education and schools, 14 on social welfare and health services, 12 on climate change and nine on managing the economy.

Further questions find strong opposition to buying submarines from Japan (28% support, 51% oppose), a slight majority against providing military aid to the Ukraine (36% support, 42% oppose) and opposition to the deferral of superannuation increases (29% approve, 49% disapprove).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

653 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [Further questions find strong opposition to buying submarines from Japan (28% support, 51% oppose), ]

    So much for the ‘shocking gaffe’ of Shorten’s speech to the sub workers them.

    Paul Sheahan, deluded as ever.

  2. As this is a fortnightly average, I’d say it’s too early to note any effects from Abbott’s decision to take us to war on the polling.

    The primary issue reflected here will probably be the deal done between the Libs and Palmer to get rid of the mining tax – at the cost of taking the axe to super contributions.

  3. Opposition to the submarine purchase from Japan in the community probably speaks more to an “Australian jobs first” sentiment than it does to an actual appraisal of whether or not the submarines in question are the best model for the task at hand.

    Abbott should never have promised to build the submarines in Australia, IMO.

  4. [and opposition to the deferral of superannuation increases (29% approve, 49% disapprove).]

    Well there it is, just as we all thought. People clearly seeing through the govt’s carry on about deferral of super increases as being good for employees.

  5. [However, the government is off 15 points on education and schools, 14 on social welfare and health services, 12 on climate change and nine on managing the economy.]

    I do admire consistency. Screwing the pooch in a range of portfolios, with an pleasingly narrow deviation from the crapulent mean.

  6. [Abbott should never have promised to build the submarines in Australia, IMO.]

    I reckon the real issue as to why Abbott has gone for the overseas subs is because the Australian manufacturers would undoubtedly have a unionised workforce.

    The real agenda is, and has always been reducing Australia to a cheap labour nation (think USA).

    First term: Destroy the unions. Hold a RC into union activities, let unionised industries die (car mamufacturers etc.).

    Second term: Bring in a far harsher version of Work Choices.

  7. [First term: Destroy the unions. Hold a RC into union activities, let unionised industries die (car mamufacturers etc.).

    Second term: Bring in a far harsher version of Work Choices.]

    Yes, spot on.
    Flaw in the otherwise cunning plan is the assumption of a second term.

  8. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, September 16, 2014 at 2:49 pm | PERMALINK
    The enduring film reviewing partnership of Margaret Pomeranz and David Stratton will finally come to an end with the final episode of At the Movies on 9 December, the ABC has announced.
    ]

    David Stratton has just turned 75. He and Margaret Pomeranz are two presenters who represent what has been good about the ABC and SBS.

  9. This is not a criticism of the way ER expressed two of its questions, the need for simplicity has overridden nuance.

    But its interesting to note that the subs question presumed that subs bought from Japan would be cheaper.

    Which aint necessarily so when we consider the loss of jobs in Oz if subs are not built here and the consequent cost to government revenues and the multiplier impact on the Oz economy particularly in SA

    Similarly the question on superannuation only offered an ‘either/or’ alternative, along with ‘no difference’.
    Including having ‘both’ – extra super rates AND wage /salary increases – would have changed the response dynamic dramatically.

  10. Dan Gulberry
    Posted Tuesday, September 16, 2014 at 3:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Second term: Bring in a far harsher version of Work Choices.

    He’s already doing that.

  11. Steve777 (from previous thread)

    [ That’s my thought as well. Why does the Government treat the voting public like idiots? ]

    Because they voted for Abbott?

  12. [It feels like there’s always been an At the Movies. I shudder to think what the show will be replaced with.]

    At Home With Tony?

  13. Interesting that the Thysennkrupp proposal for their type 216 U Boat seems (as far as i can tell so far) to have more of an Australian build component than the Japanese bid.

    Also the AIP system is fuel cell rather than Stirling engine based which has debatable advantages.

    Also, the German boats should eventually get IDAS

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDAS_(missile)

    which is a way cool piece of kit for a submarine operating in littoral environments.

    One of the points against their bid is that we WILL be having an American combat system and torpedos / ASM’s. The Yanks are happy to see that happen in a Japanese boat, but generally less happy to see it happen in a European boat (there were some issues along those lines with the original Collins build i think).

    Still, their relations with some European suppliers are less strained now so may not be a factor.

    Thyssenkrupp do emphasise the extended range of the type 216 in their media on it and the Soryu class really seems a bit short legged for its size.

    Will be interesting to see how this goes, but i suspect
    Abbott and his Wabble will get hammered if he rushes into this deal. Not that the Soryu is a bad option, just that we may be able to do better.

  14. The Minister for Beautiful Scenery again says he hates wind farms:

    [Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey said he doesn’t regret calling windfarms “utterly offensive,” as the government considers scrapping a renewable energy target that’s fostered A$20 billion ($18.1 billion) of investment.

    “We get some beautiful landscapes in Australia and frankly putting up those towers is just, to me, quite appalling in those places,” Hockey said at the Bloomberg Summit in Sydney today.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/windfarms-appalling-for-australian-landscape-hockey-says.html

  15. [ First term: Destroy the unions. Hold a RC into union activities, let unionised industries die (car mamufacturers etc.).

    Second term: Bring in a far harsher version of Work Choices. ]

    Ahhh, there is that. And i believe German companies generally have no real difficulties with Unions so that probably is a point against Thyssenkrupp’s bid.

  16. lefty e,

    Most definitely a flaw – a very fatal (politically) flaw.

    arrnea

    The one they’re trying to bring in at the moment is a much milder version of what they’ll try in their second term.

    Thankfully, the polls (so far) are indicating they won’t get a second term.

    I’d like to see them go to the electorate, ie their campaign trying to convince the electorate of the “need” to slaah worker’s benfits, conditions, pay, etc..

  17. [ I’d like to see them go to the electorate, ie their campaign trying to convince the electorate of the “need” to slaah worker’s benfits, conditions, pay, etc.. ]

    How else are they going to pay for “Abbott’s Crusade”?

  18. Player One

    [How else are they going to pay for “Abbott’s Crusade”?]

    Not by slashing wages. That means less they can collect in taxes. It probably will however create a surge in military enlistments. They may well be the only jobs available.

  19. [“We get some beautiful landscapes in Australia and frankly putting up those towers is just, to me, quite appalling in those places,” Hockey said at the Bloomberg Summit in Sydney today.]

    Like Hockey, I can’t imagine a more beautiful landscape than an open-cut mine. Thankfully, the Maules Creek mine in the Leard State Forest will be truly majestic to behold. The sight (and smell) will literally take your breath away.

  20. Small business doesn’t have much faith in the government:

    [MOST small businesses believe the economy has deteriorated and aren’t expecting things to improve in the next year.

    A SURVEY of more than 2,300 small and medium sized companies shows 67 per cent believe the economy is weaker than it was a year ago, while 54 per cent say they see no growth in their business next year.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/small-business-wary-on-economic-prospects/story-e6frfkur-1227060343802

  21. Quiz

    What was the only movie which David and Margaret differed on to the fullest extent, ie one gave zero stars and one gave five stars ?

  22. adrian

    No that would be repeats of repeats of repeats of repeats of QI series 1-6 , repeated in the afternoon incase anyone missed it the first 5 times

  23. [ Since he no longer cohabits with Margie, will we see someone called Peta as his “partner”? ]

    From what I hear, they only shared a refrigerator.

  24. [If you were going to be cruel the character to play the new partner would be called James Ashby]

    A romantic comedy, then? Throw Peter Slipper into the mix, and we get a hilarious love triangle.

    Two and a Barf Men?

  25. [At Home With Tony?
    ]

    Don’t hold your breath.

    I am still waiting for a Twitter “word cloud” for Abbott’s first year in power.

    The ABC’s shameless double standards for Gillard has been appalling and is totally unprecedented in its 58 year TV history.

  26. 34
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 16, 2014 at 3:59 pm | PERMALINK
    If you were going to be cruel the character to play the new partner would be called James Ashby

    A romantic comedy, then? Throw Peter Slipper into the mix, and we get a hilarious love triangle.

    [Two and a Barf Men?]

    LOL!

  27. Darren Laver
    Posted Tuesday, September 16, 2014 at 4:05 pm | PERMALINK
    At Home With Tony?

    Don’t hold your breath.

    I am still waiting for a Twitter “word cloud” for Abbott’s first year in power.

    [The ABC’s shameless double standards for Gillard has been appalling and is totally unprecedented in its 58 year TV history.]

    Only time i ever called the ABC and blasted them

  28. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/sydneys-waters-could-be-tropical-in-decades-heres-the-bad-news

    [Eastern Australian waters represent a climate change hotspot, with warming rates occurring twice as fast as the global average. A key reason for this is a strengthening of the East Australian current, which pushes warm tropical water southwards.

    Other oceanic hotspots around the world include southern Japan, south-east US, south-east Africa and eastern South America. All these regions have in common the influence of strong ocean currents running close to the shore bringing warm tropical water.]

  29. [Only time i ever called the ABC and blasted them]

    Vic

    Because of the crass and offensive At Home with Julia?

    Or the tacky and tabloid “word cloud” following her first year as PM?

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