Seat of the week: Holt

A once marginal seat now safe for Labor, Holt in Melbourne’s south-east has provided a home for Gareth Evans, and more recently Anthony Byrne.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Holt covers a Labor-voting area of Melbourne’s outer south-east, extending from Endeavour Hills and Narre Warren south through Hampton Park to Cranbourne. This area was accommodated by Flinders before urban expansion caught up with it after the war, then by Bruce from 1955 until the creation of Holt in 1969. The electorate was considerably larger at that time owing to the area’s lighter development, extending westwards through Dandenong to Springvale and eastwards to Emerald. Progressive redistributions reduced its area thereafter, but it continued to encompass Dandenong up to the redistribution that took effect at the 2004 election. It then assumed roughly its current dimensions, with Dandenong divided between Bruce and Isaacs, and Holt gaining Cranbourne from Isaacs.

As the balance of semi-rural areas and low-income outer suburbs tilted increasingly towards the latter, Holt transformed from highly marginal to safe for Labor. It was won for the Liberals on its creation in 1969 by Leonard Reid, then held for Labor during the Whitlam years by Max Oldmeadow, with William Yates winning it back for the Liberals in 1975. The watershed came when Michael Duffy won the seat for Labor with an 8.7% swing in 1980, and the margin was in double figures by the time Gareth Evans transferred to the seat from the Senate in 1996. Evans announced his intention to resign on the night of the 1998 election defeat, and while this ruffled feathers at the time, it did not cause trouble at the ensuing by-election for new candidate Anthony Byrne, who won easily in the absence of a Liberal candidate.

The loss of Dandenong in the 2004 redistribution cut Labor’s margin from 13.3% to 7.9%, which was followed by a further swing to the Liberals of 6.4% at the ensuing election, typifying Labor’s poor performance across Victoria. Reflecting the sensitivity of interest rates in a heavily mortgaged electorate, it then recorded a particularly forceful swing to Labor of 10.1% in 2007, joining Calwell in Melbourne’s outer north as one of two Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to Labor. The Labor margin was further boosted by 1.6% amid a generally strong result in Victoria in 2010, before a 4.9% swing in 2013 pared it back to 9.1%. A redistribution in the interim increased the margin by 0.8% through a transfer of over 14,000 voters in Narre Warren, Narre Warren South and Berwick to La Trobe in the east, a result of rapid growth in the outer suburbs generally, and around Cranbourne in particular.

The member throughout this period has been Anthony Byrne, a member of the Right faction who was widely noted as a supporter of Kevin Rudd throughout the previous government’s long-running leadership saga. Byrne won promotion to shadow parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006, then became parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister after the 2007 election, with the trade portfolio further added in February 2009. He reportedly switched support from Rudd to Julia Gillard for the June 2010 coup only when it became apparent that Rudd was headed for a heavy defeat, and was demoted to the back bench after the 2010 election, where he has since remained. In April 2014 he made headlines after accusing Bob Carr of “narcissism, self indulgence and immaturity” on the occasion of the latter’s book being published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

607 comments on “Seat of the week: Holt”

Comments Page 2 of 13
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  2. 38
    Work To Rule

    I think a number of things are operating –

    Australian forces has been fighting (and dying) on and off since 2001 in either Afghanistan, Iraq or both, leading the public to become inured to some extent to the horror stories. There is only the sense that the fighting is endless and probably futile, and yet, may also be inevitable.

    It is almost as if the idea of choice has been taken away – that we have to fight whether we like it or not and whether we might “win” or not. Peace – or even order – seem to be completely improbable outcomes. This is a deeply dismal prospect for all, and Abbott has sold the latest deployment with this pessimistic message.

    All along, Abbott has been doing his best to raise public anxiety. He has applied this to the economy, the budget, security and has re-extended it to the Middle East. While Abbott must be hoping for a political pay-off sometime, it is worth noting that – at least at the individual level – anxiety is often accompanied by depression. Anxiety translates into mood suppression, inhibition and feelings of remorse, submission and sorrow. Abbott’s tactics are having these effects on public behaviour. I think a sullen electorate will divide between those who look to protection from the Government and those who resent it.

    As well, there is a generalised mistrust of Abbott. At a very deep level, the public have every reason to feel threatened precisely because Abbott is the one calling the shots. He is not a figure of assurance and calm. On the contrary, he is belligerence itself.

    Abbott may think he can profit from public unease and is going out of his way to foster it. But it is just as likely that he becomes the reason for a loss of public confidence in the Government. It will all depend on how in/competent they turn out to be. Considering they seem to be totally incapable of effectively running the budget, the economy and/or social policy, we can have no reason to suppose they will be able to run even a small war.

    He is certainly playing a high-risk game. Considering how risk-averse Australians usually are, he may have completely misjudged both the electorate and his own capacities.

  5. Frankly I think the West should work out who they’re arming and who they’re bombing in Syria first.

    Because theyre actually all over the shop on that basic score. From one week to another.

    If I was Shorten, Id be talking up the Kurds & Iraq angle, and running a mile from Syria: because one thing here is certain its a confusing mess of actors with shifting alliances. For example, the US position is currently supporting ‘moderate’ groups who have just allied themselves to ISIS against Assad.

    I wouldnt touch that with a bargepole.

  6. [ He is certainly playing a high-risk game. Considering how risk-averse Australians usually are, he may have completely misjudged both the electorate and his own capacities. ]

    Don’t worry, Abbott is quite willing for us to take any risks he can think of. And his response should anything go wrong is already on record … i.e. that “Shit Happens”.

    How did this dill ever become PM?

  9. Thinking about war-making, I noted last night the ABC news reported that Japan may not be willing to build submarines for Australia. This puts a different inflection on Abbott’s cultivation of Abe, and suggests that Australia’s defence strategy is affected by a deep uncertainty. At its core, we are not sure what armaments we are going to have available to us, how good they will be, what they will cost, or for what purpose we might need them.

    Have the wheels already fallen off the defence wagon?

    I know David Johnston. One thing he is not is any kind of wheel wright.

  13. Sreve777

    How long ? As long as a piece of string. Oh and our Antipodean George Dubya has the cheek to take a pot shot at the original one.

    [
    Iraq: There is no exit strategy

    PRIME Minister Tony Abbott admits there is no limit on how much time we’ll spend in Iraq,

    …………..This is President Obama. It’s not President George W. Bush. This is President Obama, a very different President who is slow, rightly and properly slow to reach for the gun.”]
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-defends-new-iraq-mission-against-islamic-state/story-fnhnv0wb-1227058579637

  14. Briefly

    [Have the wheels already fallen off the defence wagon?

    I know David Johnston. One thing he is not is any kind of wheel wright.]

    Does that imply, he is thinking progressively?

  18. Leftie:

    I’m going to bet the opposite: no impact on his poor ratings.
    People are cynical of Abbott,and dont really listen to him

    I hope you’re right.

  21. bk

    [Not “Shock and Awe” again!!]

    Storming Norman and BushI had the right idea.

    Just enough to make them go home but not to trash them.

  22. Well, well, well, some decent policy from Sloppy – reform of employee stock options’ tax treatment:
    a href=”http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/libs-eye-20bn-reform-dividend/story-fn59nsif-1227057189747#”>AUSTRALIA stands to gain a $20 billion economic boost from a new wave of federal reform that will begin with an industry policy overhaul and a new employee share scheme.

    Credit where it’s due.

  23. 62
    CTar1

    64
    victoria

    I’ve known him since we were children. We used to play together. His instincts are all very orthodox. I doubt he’s ever had an original thought in his life. He does see himself as a natural leader and expects deference from those around him. He likes attention. I would say he knows how to rise to prominence but not how to use power. He likes eminence for its own sake.

  25. Ummm (puff, puff) sorry I’m late. I missed the bus, I was over at the old bus stop and no one told me this was the new route.

    But I made it here, just intime to watch the lying friar telling me that he was all modern thingies where he can stay in touch with all the world even from east arnhem land.

  26. CTar1

    Bush HW was indeed right and boy did he cop shite from the war hawks and armchair generals about not rolling on to Baghdad. The tragedy being the idiots got a hold of Bush GW and demonstrated why Poppy Bush made a wise decision.

  28. “@CliveFPalmer: Moves by @TonyAbbottMHR & his Govt to destroy universities & attack pensioners would destroy the foundations of Australian life #auspol”

  31. psssst no blue tie out in the middle of nowhere. Plus a bit more charcoal through the comb back.

    Where’s the tent, I want to see the tent. If he claims travelling allowance from the citizens – then I demand to see the tent.

  32. Interesting the British were into bombing as a solution in Iraq way back in the 1920s when the place was called Mesopotamia – ‘Mespot’ as the RAF called it.

    Don’t think it worked then either.

  33. “@political_alert: Greens Leader Christine Milne will hold a press conference about the deployment of Australian military to Iraq at 2.30pm in Sydney #auspol”

  37. Raaraa:

    [BIS figures confirm Australian housing overvalued]

    And by how much? 50% when compared to rents and 40% compared to incomes!!

    The dollar’s dropped ~5% in a week, making all those overseas loans our banks depend on that much more expensive, now we’re just waiting for the independent home loan rate rises…

  39. Hmmm…when Julie Bishop was doing her impersonation of someone sensible on AM radio a week or so ago, this is what she said..

    [FOREIGN MINISTER Well first, we need to see a clearly defined set of objectives developed. We need to determine the overall goal by which any success of the mission would be judged and assess what resources and assets would be necessary to achieve the objectives. We’d also want to know a realistic timeframe for the effort and then we would be in a position to determine a proportionate role for Australia.]

    http://foreignminister.gov.au/transcripts/Pages/2014/jb_tr_140909.aspx?ministerid=4

    Sounds very different to what’s proposed..

  40. 52
    Briefly

    I’d agree with you about the public fatigue and cumulative mistrust. I’d like to think that the ritualistic mantras required to sustain such false beliefs would loose their effect over time. But I tend to be pessimistic.

  45. guytaur

    [Longest presser?]

    I watched part of it. He looks very comfortable in the hat he’s wearing. Careful background of trees to give no hint of where he’s standing.

  47. Libertarian Unionist@87

    Raaraa:

    BIS figures confirm Australian housing overvalued


    And by how much? 50% when compared to rents and 40% compared to incomes!!

    The dollar’s dropped ~5% in a week, making all those overseas loans our banks depend on that much more expensive, now we’re just waiting for the independent home loan rate rises…

    I’m actually curious to know how much other countries values are in comparison to rent and income.

    The US at least has had correction in many states.

  50. [On Monday, Mr Hockey said Senator Sinodinos only stepped aside from his role “temporarily”.

    “Arthur is a wonderful person, a man of great personal integrity and from my perspective, obviously I’d like to have my assistant treasurer back,” Mr Hockey said. “But these things need to be resolved and I think everyone is still waiting for the final report from ICAC.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/joe-hockey-says-arthur-sinodinos-should-return-to-cabinet-20140915-10h2v7.html#ixzz3DLs8DY1n

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