Seat of the week: Holt

A once marginal seat now safe for Labor, Holt in Melbourne’s south-east has provided a home for Gareth Evans, and more recently Anthony Byrne.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Holt covers a Labor-voting area of Melbourne’s outer south-east, extending from Endeavour Hills and Narre Warren south through Hampton Park to Cranbourne. This area was accommodated by Flinders before urban expansion caught up with it after the war, then by Bruce from 1955 until the creation of Holt in 1969. The electorate was considerably larger at that time owing to the area’s lighter development, extending westwards through Dandenong to Springvale and eastwards to Emerald. Progressive redistributions reduced its area thereafter, but it continued to encompass Dandenong up to the redistribution that took effect at the 2004 election. It then assumed roughly its current dimensions, with Dandenong divided between Bruce and Isaacs, and Holt gaining Cranbourne from Isaacs.

As the balance of semi-rural areas and low-income outer suburbs tilted increasingly towards the latter, Holt transformed from highly marginal to safe for Labor. It was won for the Liberals on its creation in 1969 by Leonard Reid, then held for Labor during the Whitlam years by Max Oldmeadow, with William Yates winning it back for the Liberals in 1975. The watershed came when Michael Duffy won the seat for Labor with an 8.7% swing in 1980, and the margin was in double figures by the time Gareth Evans transferred to the seat from the Senate in 1996. Evans announced his intention to resign on the night of the 1998 election defeat, and while this ruffled feathers at the time, it did not cause trouble at the ensuing by-election for new candidate Anthony Byrne, who won easily in the absence of a Liberal candidate.

The loss of Dandenong in the 2004 redistribution cut Labor’s margin from 13.3% to 7.9%, which was followed by a further swing to the Liberals of 6.4% at the ensuing election, typifying Labor’s poor performance across Victoria. Reflecting the sensitivity of interest rates in a heavily mortgaged electorate, it then recorded a particularly forceful swing to Labor of 10.1% in 2007, joining Calwell in Melbourne’s outer north as one of two Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to Labor. The Labor margin was further boosted by 1.6% amid a generally strong result in Victoria in 2010, before a 4.9% swing in 2013 pared it back to 9.1%. A redistribution in the interim increased the margin by 0.8% through a transfer of over 14,000 voters in Narre Warren, Narre Warren South and Berwick to La Trobe in the east, a result of rapid growth in the outer suburbs generally, and around Cranbourne in particular.

The member throughout this period has been Anthony Byrne, a member of the Right faction who was widely noted as a supporter of Kevin Rudd throughout the previous government’s long-running leadership saga. Byrne won promotion to shadow parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006, then became parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister after the 2007 election, with the trade portfolio further added in February 2009. He reportedly switched support from Rudd to Julia Gillard for the June 2010 coup only when it became apparent that Rudd was headed for a heavy defeat, and was demoted to the back bench after the 2010 election, where he has since remained. In April 2014 he made headlines after accusing Bob Carr of “narcissism, self indulgence and immaturity” on the occasion of the latter’s book being published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

607 comments on “Seat of the week: Holt”

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  1. Info on the Oil smuggling operation by IS
    _______________________
    with a major market for hijacked oil in Turkey,but also as far south as Jordan and to many other Mid East destinations

    It is worth about $2million US a day to Is which is doing very well

    chttp://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/believing-that-turkey-cant-control-a-1m-or-2mday-market-inout of this tradce…using large Turkish oil tanker-trucks

  9. Morning all. I see from the newspapers that the terror level has been raised to “Lets not talk about the budget ever again”.

    The “uniformity” of Mordor press front pages seems more than coincidental. The editors are these days nothing more than lapdogs doing Rupert’s bidding. And they are losing money 🙂

  10. I liked the Nicole angle.

    “Nice Blonde Aussie Ice Queen And Obligatory Cute Tot v. Jihadist Death Cult Ninjas”, kinda sums it up.

  11. Socrates

    [….. the terror level has been raised to “Lets not talk about the budget ever again]
    I can already hear Tony Churchill’s inspiring speech (I ahs, um, well ahhhs removed)

    [We shall go on ignoring the budget to the end. We shall ignore it in Arnhem Land , we shall ignore it on the seas and oceans, we shall ignore it with Newscorp and the ABC on the air, we shall ignore our budget, whatever the cost may be to Australia

    We shall not talk about the budget on the beaches, we shall ignore it on the landing grounds, we shall ignore it in the fields and in the streets, we shall ignore it in the hills; we shall never mention it again.]

  12. While I would generally agree that the IS is dangerous and not a legitimate nation state (though IMO neither is the Vatican) the rush to war does seem to be made in an unseemly rush. Why?

    Australia’s troops and aircraft will make little difference to the military balance. Western troops in the country was used as a recruiting tool by Al Quida and the Shi’ite militias last time. Will it not have the same result this time. Would we not be better off supporting a regional solution, even if it involves Iran?

    Does the IS actually pose a terrorist threat to Australia? Does our sending troops to fight it raise or lower the risk of attacks here? Have we got around to stopping Australian muslim fundamentalists traveling to the IS to fight yet? (So much for border security…)

    In short, I think the IS is a bad thing, and should be opposed. But the speed, form and media promotion of our response leaves me wondering about our motives for joining in. If all they needed was our intelligence capability, that could have been done behind the scenes. Indeed, what is the motive for all this publicity? The last time this happened, in 2003, we launched a very stupid invasion, that caused a seven year civil war.

  15. Poroti

    It all smacks of that movie “Wag the Dog”. Perhaps Working Dog’s next production should be about a “National Defense Authority” designed to coordinate Australia’s response to world trouble spots. Or it might be called “Aus-Force”.

    Cue Rob Sitch dressed as an army colonel, sitting at a desk. In comes Kitty Flanagan, media hack from the Defense Minister’s office.
    Kitty “Colonel, what are we going to announce about our efforts in Iraq?”
    Colonel Sitch “We don’t have any efforts in Iraq. We goofed up last time.”
    Kitty “Surely you military guys have something secret going on. Maybe the SAS?”
    Colonel Sitch “The SAS are still recovering from Afghanistan. We have some low level surveillance, that is all.”
    Kitty “Spying, black ops – perfect!!”
    Colonel Sitch “But…”
    Kitty “We want the full blown military response – media release, photo ops, journo briefing at a defense base.”
    Colonel Sitch (stares blankly) “You do realise that publicity will blow our surveillance program?”
    Kitty “Sometimes war requires sacrifices.”
    Colonel Sitch (sighing) “Of our credibility?”
    Kitty “The Americans are with us all the way on this one.”
    Colonel Sitch (dryly) “Yes, when is their election?”

  17. If, according to our PM, we are on a war footing, do I have to go to work today?

    Call me a traitor but I shall continue as normal. Have a good day all.

  20. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement

    [Britain was allocated control of areas roughly comprising the coastal strip between the sea and River Jordan, Jordan, southern Iraq, and a small area including the ports of Haifa and Acre, to allow access to the Mediterranean.
    France was allocated control of south-eastern Turkey, northern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.[citation needed]
    Russia was to get Istanbul, the Turkish Straits and the Ottoman Armenian vilayets.
    The controlling powers were left free to decide on state boundaries within these areas. Further negotiation was expected to determine international administration pending consultations with Russia and other powers, including the Sharif of Mecca.]

    May 1916

  21. Some goodies turned baddies turned goodies again at work in Iraq. Thank Dog our PM is so good at being able to tell goodies from baddies.

    [Isis is producing strange bed-fellows:

    in Iraq the Iranian controlled Shia militias, which used to specialise in killing American troops, have relieved the Shia town of Amerli, long besieged by Isis, the militia’s advance made possible by US airstrikes. Hundreds of officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are embedded in the militias]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/islamic-state-widespread-fear-of-isis-is-producingstrange-bedfellows-across-the-middle-east-9732382.html

  22. Meanwhile in the venerable West we have a just lovely picture of Bishop the Junior in a car, in Mauritius it says, while she ponders when she will be taking over from Tony Abbott.

    This is not the first time the West has promoted the Woman of Steel image.

    Hedging their bets? That the Liberals would consider a woman as leader after the pounding they gave PMJG is somewhat of an irony.

    The displayed headlines from the Murdoch press on the East coast is what they do well. Plenty of practice I suppose of this kind of warmongering stuff.

    What is it about the conservatives when it comes to war, flags, uniforms and the rest of the so-called patriotic stuff?

  23. What is it about the conservatives when it comes to war, flags, uniforms and the rest of the so-called patriotic stuff?

    I think it’s the nature of being right wing – belief in hierarchies and ‘strong’ (aggressive) leaders, strong identification with and glorification of the in-group (the tribe/church/team/nation/race), demonisation of outgroups (everyone else, especially the enemy de-jour (e.g. communinists / muslims / jihadis / Russia / …).

  25. Only a year into his term, Abbott is running so low on ideas that he’s taking the country to war.

    What so saddens me is that it will, most likely, be effective in bolstering his support.

  26. While I can see the purpose of the politics of Shorten throwing Labor’s lot in with the government, a little bit of nuance would be helpful.

    Disappointing McTiernan was jumped upon by for her more thoughtful contributions.

    Simon Crean, to his credit, had the guts to stand up and say our commitment to Iraq was wrong. Where is Labor on this now?

    I seem to remember a war, a fair while ago, which started with “advisers” and “trainers” eventually led to over 500 Oz dead.

    What happened to all those calls for “Bringing the Troops Home for Christmas”?

    Interestingly, on BBC overnight, the British government admitted there was “very little” which could be done in the short run to help those westerners abducted and threatened with death.

    I am no real fan of the Greens but listening to Scott Ludlum this morning on local radio, it was heartening to hear his thoughtful comments on the value of the Bomb Them into the Stone Age approach adopted by the so-called coalition.

    What are the Turks doing by the way?

  27. I think the fact that there have only been 25 posts since 3.30 this morning shows that PBs by en large are not the least bit interested in Abbott’s fake war.

    It will be interesting to see whether Abbott gets the political benefits from all this posturing that he believes he will. I am not convinced that the Australian people will have much of an appetite for being dragged into another war in the middle east – especially when the conversation turns to how much it is going to cost.

  28. Renewable energy takes off across the world (despite resistance from the usual suspects):

    [Electric utility executives all over the world are watching nervously as technologies they once dismissed as irrelevant begin to threaten their long-established business plans. Fights are erupting across the United States over the future rules for renewable power. Many poor countries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people, are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset.]

    New York Times

  30. P.S. William – has this thread on the seat of Holt taken over as the ‘main’ / ‘current’ thread from the previous BludgerTrack thread?

  31. [Tricot
    Posted Monday, September 15, 2014 at 10:41 am | PERMALINK
    While I can see the purpose of the politics of Shorten throwing Labor’s lot in with the government, a little bit of nuance would be helpful.

    Disappointing McTiernan was jumped upon by for her more thoughtful contributions.]

    It seems that Labor may be doing a bit of a dog whistle on this.

    The Labor leadership under Shorten says the only thing that is politically correct at the moment. However there may be a bit of a nudge/wink towards individual Labor MPs saying the whole idea is Abbott inspired baloney.

    That way Labor avoids being mauled by Murdoch and others, while keeping faith with those who believe Abbott is going to war for his own advantage.

  32. socrates

    [If, according to our PM, we are on a war footing, do I have to go to work today?
    Call me a traitor but I shall continue as normal. Have a good day all.]

    Keep calm and carry on. Abbott has everything under control. Please avoid thinking too much, and do what you’re told.

  33. Tricot

    [What are the Turks doing by the way?]

    A great deal of nothing. The Turkish govt is wary if arming or mobilising the Peshmerga in Iraq, lest it inspire Turkey’s own restive Kurdish minority.

  34. [It seems that Labor may be doing a bit of a dog whistle on this.

    The Labor leadership under Shorten says the only thing that is politically correct at the moment. However there may be a bit of a nudge/wink towards individual Labor MPs saying the whole idea is Abbott inspired baloney.

    That way Labor avoids being mauled by Murdoch and others, while keeping faith with those who believe Abbott is going to war for his own advantage.]

    I wondered about that too. If it was a tactic it certainly worked. The truth about Abbott’s cynicism hit the headlines for a day while Shorten got to say he is in absolute “lock step” with Abbott on the hairy chestedness. Win, win.

  35. [While I can see the purpose of the politics of Shorten throwing Labor’s lot in with the government, a little bit of nuance would be helpful.]

    Wisely played, the ALP could emerge as the more thoughtful actor here, setting limits and benchmarks on the engagement. ‘How do we know this is working’ style checks.

    You can bet Abbott wont. Bit beyond his mental capacity, and as we all know he take as much distraction as he can get from his disastrous domestic incompetence and budget fails.

  37. William

    I do not know the technical details but when you put new thread it would be good if it appeared at the top of the page. eg in this thread near the Seat of the week headline.

  38. Abbott will enjoy majority support (for a period of time) with his foray. So I suspect it will boost his support or stop it sliding.

    However, although saddening in the short term, I am optimistic that support will have a short half life.

    For a start, the level of support is nothing like the sort of crazed levels of nationalistic fever than Howard cultivated during the Tampa affair.

    From memory, the level of support for Howard’s actions were astonishingly high. Can anyone point to polls from that period?

  41. [Abbott will enjoy majority support (for a period of time) with his foray. So I suspect it will boost his support or stop it sliding.]

    I’m going to bet the opposite: no impact on his poor ratings.

    People are cynical of Abbott,and dont really listen to him /People are cynical of Abbott,and dont really listen to him.

    I cant think why/
    I cant.. think why.

  42. “@MarkRDuckett: Hockey ‘you can’t put a price on protecting Australians lives’ …yes Hockey you have..$7 per person per medical consultation #auspol”

  43. I opposed the invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq because they were a colossal waste of lives and money and had zero chance of solving the core problem in those lands: the absence of good political order (effective state institutions, accountable government, the rule of law). I oppose the planned airstrikes in Iraq and Syria because they repeat the blunders and conceit of past interventions.

    The first principle of intervention is: Do No Harm. At the very least, don’t make the situation worse. This principle binds professionals such as doctors, psychologists, social workers. It should be applied to foreign policy as well. America’s military operations and weapons and military training for factions in Vietnam, in multiple Latin American countries, in Afghanistan, in Iraq and elsewhere fell woefully short of meeting that test. Not only did the interventions fail to improve the situation: they worsened it.

    There is simply no way that killing several thousand more people in Iraq and Syria will remove terrorism and chaos from those places. The only way to make the situation better is to fix the politics: and this is an extremely difficult and painstaking task which can only occur in a community-driven, evolutionary process. It is actually a miracle to achieve a large and complex society in which millions of people live with differences without killing each other. It takes a lot of work on attitudes, behaviours, and institutions to get it right – to get to the point where millions of people with diverse perspectives and interests can live among each other and resolve disputes, power will be shared and exercised and checked, allocate resources, and effect peaceful changes of government. No government currently intervening in the Middle East is even trying to facilitate this work. Therefore nothing will get better under the current approach.

    Thoughtful, disciplined, rigorous non-violent politics is infinitely harder than war. Any fool can go to war. It takes great courage, insight and skill to build good political order.

  46. [Tony Abbott says he understands the role science must play in a strong economy.

    In June, he said “science was at the heart of a country’s competitiveness”, and promised “significant emphasis in boosting our focus on science, technology, engineering and maths”.

    Given the $420 million slashed from science and research organisations in the May budget, the odds aren’t great that Mr Abbott’s pledges will be kept.

    But budget cuts are only the pointy end of the problem.
    Australia lacks a vision for the future.

    As the Herald has reported, we are the only country in the OECD that does not have a long-term strategy for science, technology or innovation.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/science-for-a-better-society-and-a-stronger-economy-20140914-10griy.html#ixzz3DLSsBA6e

  49. Nich

    [It takes great courage, insight]

    When Tony says ‘Australia’ will contribute some SAS staff and some really slow Super Hornets you have to wonder.

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