GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.
Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.
Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.
UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.
[ Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1h
Hats off to the government for doing the right thing and calling a royal commission to exonerate Julia Gillard re AWU. Avoids ongoing smear.]
Ummmm…
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/how_gillards_drafting_would_have_fooled_a_judge/
And:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/on_2gb_tonight_gillard/
Where you can only imagine the smearing that would’ve taken place.
[The entire schtick was set up to embarrass Gillard and point-score against Labor.]
The depth of absolute hatred and payback is palpable.
Rabbott & his consorts want to humiliate and diminish every facet of JGillard’s being.
[ So absolutely irrelevant to the current discussion pertaining to blokes that top themselves and their family at the sametime. ]
Nice try, but sadly all you are doing is displaying your own ignorance.
confessions
No electoral harm to LNP though. Supporters know they tried roooly roooly hard and it is those bloody bleeding heart lawyers and judges wot are to blame. 🙁
MTBW@1096
I have no definitive answer and I suppose to some extent on where the boundaries of mental illness lie. Was Hitler mad? Or perfectly sane but just ‘evil’?
Are psychopaths mentally ill?
Some violence is certainly driven by mental illness where the perpetrator has lost touch with reality.
Some is just young blokes getting into a fight – fortunately in most such cases there are no fatalities. Arrogance can be a factor there.
Drugs, particularly ice also contribute to violent behaviour.
This latest case near Wagga seems a bit of a puzzle as the local community appears to have been taken completely by surprise by it. Not what you would expect if there was a history of family violence. It seems to have come out of the blue as if someone just snapped.
We shall have to wait and see as more information is released.
Windhover
Been busy, I was interested in what you said re Heydon disallowing a witness, didn’t know that. Also noted what sprocket said about the odious Mike Smith, they the shockjocks won’t let it die. But only the already converted listen to them’
BTW are you on twitter?
confessions
Just watched PvO and he declared it was all crap and reminded viewers he said the same two years ago.
[Rabbott & his consorts want to humiliate and diminish every facet of JGillard’s being.]
Yep. Says it all about them and their followers. So bitter.
[And what drives violence?
Mental illness or arrogance?]
Mental illness is waaaay down on the list of what causes violence (unless you count sociopathy as a mental illness).
poroti:
I reckon PvO is deluded if he thinks no RC findings against Gillard will be the end of the matter.
There are STILL Fox News types who rake over the Obama country of birth stuff even when proof in the form of his birth certificate has been produced.
Even Mike Smith sounded very disappointed in the lack of blows landed on JG.
Bolt has completely given up on it except to say the slush fund was a bit shabby.
[Bemused and Fran,
Shove your concern where it fits.]
Ah, Puff, feminism’s very own Frank Calabrese.
confessions
He never said they would stop. Just that they were rubbish. Which of course has never stopped Rupes mob.
[This latest case near Wagga seems a bit of a puzzle as the local community appears to have been taken completely by surprise by it. Not what you would expect if there was a history of family violence.]
Yes, I was taken by the description of socially heavily involved in community etc… lovely family with lots of friends.
It may well be the usual tale of two families.
fess,
Maybe Labor can return the compliment to Pyne, Brush and Abbott regarding the Ashby matter. Even better still perhaps a RC in to Abbott’s viloent behaviour at University.
The best part was that Gillard showed what it is to sound prime ministerial.
poroti:
He tweeted that no RC findings against Gillard would mean an end the ongoing smear (see comment #1101). My own view is that the Larry Pickerings and 2GB nutters of the world will continue to assert she has a case to answer much as the Obama birther movement continues to deny the reality of his US birthplace.
The Gillard-AWU obsession is largely driven by misogyny in the same way as Obama birtherism is driven by racism.
GG:
I’d be totally down with that. 🙂
“The best part was that Gillard showed what it is to sound prime ministerial.”
Just wanted to see that sentence again – it captures exactly how I feel.
Telling headline in the Australian “Gillard: I would have done it differently”
[ Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1h
Hats off to the government for doing the right thing and calling a royal commission to exonerate Julia Gillard re AWU. Avoids ongoing smear. ]
I’m sure Labor will be more than happy to return the favour when they return to government – in order to *avoid any ongoing smear* against abbott – or otherwise.
I’m pretty sure pvo won’t take his hat off nor refer to it as *the right thing* though when Labor announces RC’s to *liberate* abbott.
/ dripping sarcasm off.
Morrison on 7 1/2 struggling to make terrorism scare at all scary. He declines to give any specifics so all he throws out are generalities which lack any impact.
When Labor get back into government, the mere mention of RC into the shenanigans in the Coalition will draw scorn and claims this is vindictive pettiness from all sectors of the media and the cost, oh the cost!
I think there’s an element of irony there from PVO, Dave.
Dee
There was a suicide note so at least the police know what the probable cause was.
Well Dee as an objective observer – it does seem the RC process has identified some “irregularities” in the Labor Party.
[“The best part was that Gillard showed what it is to sound prime ministerial.”]
Yes, absolutely. Wish we could have her back as PM.
For an institution which receives substantial amounts of public funding – rc scrutiny of the Labor party is warranted.
Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment @1120
You are welcome Sir.
William – maybe.
He is all over the place with his views, what I’ve seen of them anyway.
@EDJ/1127
More “irregularities” in the NSW Liberal and Federal Liberal Party.
@EDJ/1129
As above.
If PvO is trying for irony he’d do well to take lessons from Mumble.
[Well Dee as an objective observer – it does seem the RC process has identified some “irregularities” in the Labor Party.]
Which RC is that, eddie? Or are you thinking of ICAC which has found irregularities in both political sides?
Will
[I think there’s an element of irony there from PVO]
Well FFS I would have to agree 100% with that, nothing else would make any sense.
Edwina StJohn@1127
You crack me up, Eddie!
Diogs,
The note will tell the police about motive.
Bullets tell you the probable cause of the familys deaths.
Well IT, confessions surely you’d support criminality being rooted out of the Labor Party? $100m mining profits surely arent a good thing?
Or if the Party does it , it must be good?
ESJ
I’m fascinated – what does Julia Gillard’s bathroom renovations have to do with the Labor party?
It’s an enquiry into trade unions. The Labor party has only been referred to in passing.
Now, if you were talking about ICAC and the Liberals, you might have a point…
Pope sums it up.
https://twitter.com/otiose94/status/509628371500662785/photo/1
ESJ:
Got no idea what you’re on about, sorry.
mikehilliard
It would have been much more obvious if people had seen his earlier comments on it.
It’s Time@1113
😆 😆 😆
Re Security Scare from Morrison
___________
It’s clear that Morrison and Co see political value in pumping up secutiry scares and threats
Tonight was a vintage performance and runs along with the ongoing Federal Govt attempts to elevate foreign affairs and security scares to distract from their domestic policies
Long ago I recall Menzies who was a master at using”communism” as a scare when his domestic support fell
These people do the same thing with terror threatsa ..and they are aided and abbetted by the Murdoch tabloids,and their scare ridden headlines …watch this in the coming days
[ Josh Bornstein @JoshBBornstein · 37m
Hedley Thomas,Michael Smith,Julie Bishop,Tony Abbott,Mark Baker,Chris Mitchell,Harry Nowicki,Andrew Bolt. Will you apologise? #turc #auspol]
[For an institution which receives substantial amounts of public funding – rc scrutiny of the Labor party is warranted. ]
An ICAC at a federal level would be an appropriate body to do so if you accept that the Federal Police are useless. A partisan misuse of a RC is not warranted at all.
poroti
Yeah I know, the cartoon is more than 2 years old!
It looks like Hedley Thomas may be a broken man tonight.
In Murdoch’s Oz this morning:
[HEDLEY THOMAS
A REMARKABLE chapter in politics, law and the media is reaching the pointy end after 19 years.]
This afternoon Brad Norington had taken over the writing task:
[4:21PM BRAD NORINGTON
JULIA Gillard has admitted she would have acted differently in setting up a slush fund for her former union boyfriend, Bruce Wilson.]
Where to now for Thomas – who really did kill Cock Robin?
[HEDLEY THOMAS
A REMARKABLE chapter in politics, law and the media is reaching the pointy end after 19 years.]
About as sharp as a bowlimg ball!
mikehilliard
Was referring to PvO tweet. The cartoon is just as relevant today as it was then. Nothing has changed.