Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol

    49 primary for ALP and GRN translates to 52-48, only in MurdochLand

  2. The polls do seem to me to be resembling those of the ones we saw from 2010 with the minority government.

    I suspect voters do not like broken promises and chaos

  3. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll Action taken in Iraq so far by Australian Govt: Support 62 Oppose 25 #ISIS #auspol


  4. ESJ – and yet, he’s still the best performing Oppn Leader against a first term PM in polling history…

    I’ll leave your fantasies of ALP leadership tensions to you and your left-over sausage grease.

  5. Hmmm. All this international statesman crap by Abbott and no real impact in the polling.

    Time for Tone to start focusing on what Australian voters want rather than what Brussels wants.

  6. Well J341983 as I said on an earlier post – Labor has only polled over 40% 1 year in 21 years. 1993 was the highpoint commrade! It will be looked back at fondly.

  7. ESJ does know that, all of her hacky gloating aside, the Coalition still fail to lead a single poll, despite Abbott having played the trump card, right?

    But, when reality doesn’t suit a Coalition hack, just desperately try to talk about a Labor leadership challenge…

  8. ESJ

    Eddie Obeid destroyed Labor’s vote at the NSW election. I think we are seeing now that trail leading to the destruction of the LNP vote Federally.

  9. Well, there you have it – pretty much as I predicted at 1.30pm this arvo in this forum:

    [Newspoll should be out tonight, so what do we reckon it might throw up this time?

    Two weeks ago they came in an 51% to 49% to the ALP, so even if it’s always a guessing game, I’m going with a slight drift to the ALP, back out to 52% to 48% TPP, Abbott and Shorten to be neck and neck on the Preferred PM metric, but Abbott’s personal popularity to remain in the toilet, somewhere near 60% dissatisfaction.]

    Despite the heavy lifting done by the Murdoch Circus to shoulder our courageous statesman-like PM around the nation, the punters are not buying.

  10. Teaser article before the main one goes up at midnight. No table yet.
    [Greens benefit as Newspoll shows drift away from Abbott and Shorten
    The Australian
    September 08, 2014 10:45PM

    A YEAR after the last federal election one in four voters don’t want either Tony Abbott or Bill Shorten as prime minister and would give their first preference to the Greens, independents or a minor party.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals support for the Coalition is significantly below the level of its thumping election victory, while Labor is marginally higher but leads in two-party-preferred terms by 52 to 48 per cent.

    The Coalition marks its one-year anniversary with a primary vote of 39 per cent, more than six points lower than the 45.6 per cent election result.

    It is a dip of one point in the past fortnight during which time the government delivered one of its key election pledges to repeal the mining tax, as part of a package to delay compulsory increases in superannuation.

    The Prime Minister has also committed the RAAF to delivering aid and weapons to forces ­opposing Islamic State militants, and travelled to Malaysia and India.

    Labor has a lower primary vote than the Coalition, adding one point in the past fortnight to 35 per cent, which is slightly above the ALP’s 33.3 per cent election result. It has spent the past week hammering the government for breaking promises in its budget.]

  11. Not really Comrade Moore – there’s a lock in WA and QLD in terms of seats. Unless these conservative folk discover an unresolved hankering for Gillardism then it will be a 1 in 20 event of Labor ever achieving majority government again.

  12. I wonder if the Greens primary vote result of 14 is statistical noise or related to the Coalition-Labor unity ticket on misguided military interventions.

  13. Under the circumstances that is a fantastic result for Labor. It looks as if the Liberals have bottomed out with Labor still in a winning position.

  14. [Not really Comrade Moore – there’s a lock in WA and QLD in terms of seats. Unless these conservative folk discover an unresolved hankering for Gillardism then it will be a 1 in 20 event of Labor ever achieving majority government again.]

    Got an actual rebuttal that isn’t just partisan rhetoric.

    Also your cherry-picking about Labor’s historic primary votes conveniently ignores the rise of a significant Left Wing third party.

  15. Incorrect Comrade Moore, I said a majority Labor government is unlikely, a minority Labor Government (supported by the Gruhne) is about a 2 in 5 chance at any election.

  16. of course there is a lock in QLD J14rw4427470234 , tell me again the multiple elections where the ALP has won a majority of seats in QLD?

  17. Hang on … a ALP majority Govt is a 5% chance and an ALP/GRN Govt is a 40% chance? You do realise there’s only one and likely to be one or no GRN MPs?

  18. Did Liz Hayes ask Ashby about this

    Former political staffer James Ashby is to pursue the federal government for more than $1 million in legal costs from his aborted sexual harassment suit against former parliamentary speaker Peter Slipper.
    In a Federal Court hearing on Monday, the bitter legal stoush – in which Mr Ashby accused his former boss of “unwelcome sexual advances” – was formally discontinued following Mr Ashby’s decision to withdraw from the case last week.]

    Read more:

  19. @31 – I don’t think cherry picking random stats that don’t make much sense to the whole is actually making points – just noise.

  20. “@vanOnselenP: I must say, I’m yet to hear a good answer for how we can still have a AAA credit rating if economic management has been so diabolical?”

    The cracks are starting to show

  21. As Steve Smith said Steve777Labor cannot win without a primary vote with a 4 in front of it. 1998 was line-ball and I think just at 40or just under.

    There is no Labor majority left. You can thank your friends in the Greens for that.

  22. You’re not making a very convincing point tonight, ESJ. Your argument’s all over the place, you’re cherry-picking and you resort to ridicule and evasion when asked to back your claims up with evidence (or at least a convincing argument.)

  23. Yup, I think 52/48 is an accurate reflection of voting intentions at the third of the way mark.

    I like the fact that Shorten is really giving Abbott a run for PPM, it adds solidarity to the figures for an outlook to the big day in two years.

    Still, Abbott is the rightful favourite to win the usual second term.

  24. [“@vanOnselenP: I must say, I’m yet to hear a good answer for how we can still have a AAA credit rating if economic management has been so diabolical?”]

    He won’t hear one from Hockey or Abbott. I think that much is clear from the track record of this mob in govt.

  25. well comrade moore – the facts are clear , Labor will get over 40% about once every 20 years.

    You cannot refute that because its true.The Gruhne (ironically) ate your lunch.

  26. [Isn’t there a contradiction when you say Green support rises “outside the error margin” and then say it is “improbable”?]

    If an increase in a poll result is outside the margin of error, it tells us that the change is statistically different from no change at all. So in this case, I reject the null hypothesis that the Greens vote hasn’t increased (or would do, if I accepted all the assumptions implicit in the poll methodology). It does not mean I accept the hypothesis that it has increased by 3%.

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