Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Rupert Murdoch has indicated his strongest support yet for an independent Scotland with a series of tweets suggesting that the media mogul could be about to back Alex Salmond’s yes campaign.]

    Interesting!

  2. 1297 & 1299

    There is a simple solution to tax competition in the EU, or at least the Eurozone. Have the EU set the bulk of tax rates. It would mean higher taxes could be charged, evasion would be lower and that there would be more direct interest in EU elections.

  3. Dan G

    The truth is that the ARL at the time was the number one footy code. Since the Super League war Rugby League fell to number two behind the Ballerina.

    No, the Western Reds never played a game in the ARL, they took the big bucks and bet that Super League would reign supreme.

    The Adelaide Rams were formed purely for the purposes to field 10 teams in the Super League competition – that is all!

  4. 1305
    Bemused
    I think England would be the first. This would be to prevent or encourage border crossover of head office and employment in the now separate countries. I would call it an unnecessary economic war between neighbors.

  5. Tom the first and best@1308

    1297 & 1299

    There is a simple solution to tax competition in the EU, or at least the Eurozone. Have the EU set the bulk of tax rates. It would mean higher taxes could be charged, evasion would be lower and that there would be more direct interest in EU elections.

    Tom, I am afraid you just add substance to Centre’s claims about greens.

  6. Re Murdoch and the establiszhment in the UK
    ______________________________
    In the recent McPhillips book on Murdoch’s politics,he makes the point that in the UK he has, despite his wealth and power never been accepted by the UK Establishment..and the recent conflicts he has had…have sharpened his anger against them…and the Royals are no exception..the Queen is said to have stopped Thatcher giving Murdoch a title

    Now like the Scot-Nats he has a chance to slap the faces of the “Westminster Gang ” to use the recent comment by First Minister Salmond…who rightly sees not much difference between Tory/Labour and LibDems,,,all singing togeather..and all lead by rich public schoolboys

    Murdoch will be able to help bring them all down if the Scots vote for Independence

    BTW…it’s 98 years since the Easter Rising in Dublin trigged of the bitter and bloody struggle for Irish Independence….which aroused such passion in Australia during WW1…and inspired many leaders in other countries to rebel against British Imperialism,,like those in India

    Why would Rupert miss the chance. to humble the Westminister Gang ..after all They have called him “The Dirty Digger”..revenge is sweet they say

  7. Bemused,

    Unsurprising given you are the proverbial fart in the bottle. Whenever you open your cork, you stink up the place with your ignorance.

  8. 1316

    Admittedly it is not quite as simple as it first seems but it is still a good idea.

    The EU Parliament is democratically elected and covers the EU.

    There is the issue, with personal income tax, as to whether to try and apply said taxes to non-Eurozone jurisdictions in the EU or if not whether or not to allow these member-states to be involved in the tax decisions.

    It would remove the current problems with the Eurozone being a currency union but not a fiscal union.

    There would be resistance to its introduction based on nationalist nonsense and jurisdictional power hording but it could still be made to happen.

  9. 1324
    These taxation arrangements you talk of are probably the same between scot and uk. Independence adds a risk of change. As for all euro countries having the same tax rates France citizens would be getting excited.

  10. 1328

    Since the threat with tax competition is lower taxes, not higher taxes, there would be no reason to ban EU member-state from having additional taxes on top of the EU taxes.

  11. Re Euro Taxes
    ___________
    I understand that the VAT(GST)tax …uniform across the EU is given in all cases to the Euro Commission for its use and to say its costs

  12. The Australian’s Hedley Thomas tries to salvage something from his years pursuing Gillard over the AWU allegations:

    “If nothing else, Gillard has provided a valuable lesson to lawyers why an affair with a client is a recipe for disaster. An affair with a rogue only makes matters worse.”

    Or in other words, the Coalition just spent tens of millions of our dollars on a royal Commission to discover something they could have found out by watching a re-run of Ally McBeal.

  13. Centre,
    The Reds played in the ARL competition in 1995-6. They played in Super League in 1997 and basically went bust when the Super League-ARL deal was negotiated.
    BTW, I think the Chooks will go back to back this year. I have no skin in the finals, as a Raiders fan.

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Conservatives love laws – unless they themselves are affected.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/family-of-glen-turner-appalled-at-proposed-changes-to-land-clearing-laws-20140910-10eusg.html
    Jaqui Maley calls “Stumps!” after yesterday’s TURC hearing with Julia Gillard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/a-stressful-period-of-my-life-no-killer-blow-as-julia-gillard-revisits-her-past-20140910-10f335.html
    And Michael Gordon calls out the TURC for what it is.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/dignified-in-the-dock-julia-gillard-checks-attack-on-invoices-20140910-10f3po.html
    Lenore Taylor – surely this must now be the end of the Gillard saga.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/julia-gillard-surely-union-corruption-saga-must-now-move-on
    Michelle Grattan – Plenty of digging but no dirt.
    https://theconversation.com/interrogation-of-gillard-produces-nothing-new-31529
    Peter Wicks – Attempts to trash Julia Gillard’s reputation fail in every respect.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/trash-attempts-to-trash-julia-gillards-reputation-fail-in-every-aspect/
    Julia Gillard testifies at the TURC. Next up Elvis Presley and Bigfoot!
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/julia-gillard-testifies-at-turc-next-up-elvis-presley-and-big-foot,6884
    Laura Tingle says that Abbott, with these plainly political witch hunt RCs has set a terrible precedent.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/no_gain_just_pain_in_gillard_witch_KUvsvnOmvimiv8NJIcHneK
    Chris Bowen will be at the NPC today to deliver a broadside at Hockey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chris-bowen-to-slam-joe-hockey-over-budget-20140911-3f9cy.html
    The budget has hurt consumer confidence.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/consumer-confidence-falls-for-seventh-straight-month

  15. Section 2 . . .

    Mark Latham – another march of folly with the US.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/another_march_of_folly_with_the_MhpYu80HdpELIRUvW2DNgM
    Coca-Cola Amatil demonstrates what the Coalition means by “productivity”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cocacola-amatil-slashes-wages-with-new-employees-to-work-for-less-20140910-10exj8.html
    More trouble for the darling company of the Libs, Brickworks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/brickworks-transparency-and-governance-attract-brickbats-from-major-shareholder-and-broker-20140910-10f2br.html
    Fair Work Australia confirms serial rorting of 457 visas just as Morrison further loosens the rules for them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/questions-over-457-visas-as-morrison-loosens-rules-20140910-10f311.html
    Chainsaw says that NSW is facing a severe gas shortage.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/nsw-staring-at-severe-gas-shortage-warns-ian-macfarlane-20140910-10exts.html
    Independent Australia – Time for Abbott to stop fudging on his citizenship issue.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tiad-of-fudging-on-the-citizenship-issue,6882
    The ACT wants its powers back to legalise voluntary euthanasia.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/euthanasia-submission-from-katy-gallagher-shane-rattenbury-call-for-act-laws-20140910-10ewdn.html
    Victorian Labor rolls the dice and commits to scrap the questionable East-West Link.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-to-dump-eastwest-link-if-elected-even-if-contracts-are-signed-20140910-10f46z.html
    Tony Fitzgerald bemoans the state of Queensland politics.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/populist-newman-govt-hiding-behind-facade-fitzgerald-20140910-10f6r5.html

  16. Section 3 . . .

    It’s milking time for the Coalition as AFP raids roll out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-alert-to-rise-as-two-men-arrested-after-islamic-bookshop-raid-20140910-10erkd.html
    Is Morrison going to give us a major backflip?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-proposes-releasing-asylum-seekers-onto-australian-mainland-under-tpv-plan-20140910-10eznj.html
    Poorer women will bear the brunt of Abbott’s budget cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-budget-to-leave-poorer-women-worse-off-20140910-10f4dw.html
    Old coal plants blamed for electricity oversupply.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coal-plants-blamed-for-energy-oversupply-20140910-10f243.html
    Prissy Pyne backpedals on the education reform process with weasel words aplenty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-bows-to-concerns-over-school-funding-review-20140910-10f02m.html
    John Oliver’s satirical take on US tertiary study debt has relevance here in Australia.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/10/drink-beer-shoot-fireworks-out-your-bum-john-olivers-uni-debt-warning
    Here are this year’s Eureka Prize winners.
    https://theconversation.com/plain-talker-on-climate-change-among-eureka-prize-winners-31461
    Elizabeth Farrelly has a good look at the culture of corruption in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-hard-to-keep-abreasted-when-wallowing-in-corruption-20140910-10ewgu.html

  17. Section 4 . . .

    Beautiful work from David Pope on the nature of the TURC as it applies to Julia Gillard.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/09/11/5750916/David-Pope-Gillard-defcon-620×0.jpg
    MUST SEE! David Rowe at the circus.
    http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2014/09/10/Photos/752c4dca-38d2-11e4-9294-f9efb366eece_gallery11sep14–736×535.jpg
    Rod Clement – Turnbull considers . . .
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_rod_clement_dKTsVx4omRRhInyIOB7oFN

  18. [ lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, September 10, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Rupert enjoying some venganza, messing with Westminsters heads.

    I reckon he’s got to be seeing Scotland as a low tax zone for his News outlets.

    If so, NO is in for one hell of a rough ride to the line. ]

    If its *Yes* the wily Scots can then ban him from entering or operating any business there.

    A murdoch free zone – sounds pretty good to me.

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