Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 27
1 … 23 24 25 … 27

  1. [ A REMARKABLE chapter in politics, law and the media is reaching the pointy end after 19 years.]

    That remarkable 19yo chapter being a chapter most Australians had no idea about until the woman became PM, even though she’d been in politics for years prior to that.

    Too funny.

  3. [begin rant]
    Anyway, time for a Royal Commission into wall punching, dodgy ‘scholarships’ and a fishing expedition into the links between Liberal donors and Liberal policies.

    Heard a bit of the Royal Commission on the car radio. Good to hear Julia Gillard’s voice. Grace and dignity. What a contrast to the bustering and blundering clowns, thugs and spivs who have taken over.

    [end rant]

  4. [A REMARKABLE chapter in politics, law and the media is reaching the pointy end after 19 years.]

    A remarkably embarrassing chapter in the kind of immoral gutter journalism, talent-less scum at news publications around the world are best known for wallowing in, is ending. With the biggest loser (news had no integrity to lose) the taxpayer because an idiot prime minister wasted millions of taxpayer dollars on it.

  5. It’s Time@1123

    Morrison on 7 1/2 struggling to make terrorism scare at all scary. He declines to give any specifics so all he throws out are generalities which lack any impact.

    As I said this morning: “the nation faces an existential threat from a small group of conspirators inspired by a toxic ideology to pursue their goals ruthlessly.

    They are the members of the Federal Government. 👿 “

  7. [The party of Thommo, Obeid, CFMEU and spot land rezonings lecturing on ethics – ROFLMAO]

    This coming from the party of Slipper, and wait pretty much all the liberals in NSW.

  11. It’s kind of comforting to have such an obvious LNP stooge back on PB. I was beginning to think that global warming had sent them all to extinction!

  16. Oh dear, eddie’s popped the blue pills again. RCs seem to be very expensive and inefficient ways to try and pin down some allegedly small crimes whilst more serious crimes are swept under the carpet.

  17. [A remarkably embarrassing chapter in the kind of immoral gutter journalism, talent-less scum at news publications around the world are best known for wallowing in, is ending. With the biggest loser (news had no integrity to lose) the taxpayer because an idiot prime minister wasted millions of taxpayer dollars on it.]

    Hell yeah. Way better than what I said!

  19. It is hard to hear the truth spoken especially for partisans such as yourselves accustomed to agitprop diets – but it can be healing and establish an objective baseline to work from.

    Thommo and others really did do it guys!The truth will set you free!

  20. sprocket_@1165

    This Tenplay clip from the Brisbane news tonight is worth a look for the cameo appearance of Larry Pickering. And for an insight into the anti-Muslim sentiment being beaten up by TeamAustralia

    http://ow.ly/BjRvf

    Now does this sound at all familiar?

    [ “there’s nothing wrong with being bigoted if you’re right in your bias” ]

  22. Edwina StJohn@1169

    It is hard to hear the truth spoken especially for partisans such as yourselves accustomed to agitprop diets – but it can be healing and establish an objective baseline to work from.

    Thommo and others really did do it guys!The truth will set you free!

    The truth and you are complete strangers.

  25. [And for an insight into the anti-Muslim sentiment being beaten up by TeamAustralia]

    Wow totally OTT by some of those people. “Burquas or bikinis: you decide”?

    And that bloke who said islam isn’t a religion but a cult? Love to know how he’d define other religions given a free pass here, which IMO are equally as intolerant and oppressive.

  27. [sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, September 10, 2014 at 8:21 pm | PERMALINK
    This Tenplay clip from the Brisbane news tonight is worth a look for the cameo appearance of Larry Pickering. And for an insight into the anti-Muslim sentiment being beaten up by TeamAustralia

    http://ow.ly/BjRvf ]

    This demonstration against a proposed mosque is being repeated in the Canberra suburb of Gungahlin. A group called “Concerned Citizens of Canberra” has already lost appeals against the mosque but is now going to the (ACT Supreme?) Court later this year.

    The irony is that two churches close by (Uniting and Salvos) have publicly indicated support for the mosque going ahead.

  29. [ A group called “Concerned Citizens of Canberra” has already lost appeals against the mosque but is now going to the (ACT Supreme?) Court later this year. ]

    Shouldn’t that be “Koncerned Kitizens of Kanberra”?

  36. zoidlord@1182

    @zoomster/1180

    Probably because Libs have done in their previous life before coming to politics?

    That probably used to be true. Now, it seems to be the other way around – if you aspire to be a corrupt businessman, the LNP offers a truly great apprenticeship scheme!

  38. Fact No 2: Former Labor Party Member for Dobell, Craig Thomson is appealing his criminal conviction for credit card fraud in the Victorian County Court.

  39. Fact No 3: The AEC had massive public objections to naming a seat Wright when members of the public thought it was to honour convicted paedo Keith Wright former Labor Opposition Leader in Queensland and Member for Capricornia.

  42. Don’t encourage ESJ..it’s not worth it
    __________
    Try to ignore his innane postings
    I get regularly attacked …more than most others…but that is because he detests my posts on the criminal actions of his zionist friends in Gaza and elsewhere,and my comments on Apartheid Israel

    I think his snide,silly and stupid remarks may spring from his zionist background…perhaps it is in their DNA ???
    but try to ignore him ..he is after all just Trolling this site …leave to his coalition friends

  44. In the several years that I have been on pollbludger, I have responded to ESJ twice at most. Once I realised that he was just trolling and offered little intelligent debate, I stopped feeding him. I assume that there are a lot of posters that secretly enjoy his posts? If not, why feed him?

    Tom.

  46. When a parent kills his/her children it seems hard to imagine his/her state of mind being “normal”. Not many people are murderous.

    The hardest thing to assimilate is the fairly recent advances in science and philosophy which increasingly frame such events in a deterministic context, to the point where responsibility for such heinous criminality may be legally reducible due to a lifetime of factors inevitably leading to the crime being committed.

    Personally, I feel the same raw fury as PTMD and others, to the point where I can easily imagine exacting my own extreme punishment upon the perpetrator. In a similar vein, I can quickly descend to inchoate rage when encountering vile cruelty to animals. Faced with such cruelty, the punishment I feel like dispensing is out of proportion to the crime but there is no escaping what I feel capable of in those white hot moments. The same applies when I encounter examples of the young children being raped, abused and murdered in India or Africa.

    I recently read Outlaw Platoon, an account of life in an American army platoon working along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is a chapter in the book which deals with abuse of Afghan children by soldiers from Pakistan, who steal the children from villages and take them across the border into Pakistan where the US cant follow. What they did to a particular boy doesnt bear thinking about and even now, weeks later, I’m still traumatized if I allow that incident back into my thoughts. Humans are capable of terrible, terrible things.

    Yet I have never dispensed violence on another human in my entire life.

    Conscious reflection on the ultimate causes of such abhorrent behaviour almost inevitably leads me to adopting a similar position to Fran once I work through the emotions. But I cant pretend that I reach the point Fran reaches. I have to work hard to avoid letting emotion cloud science and reason – this work seems particularly important as we learn more about the physical brain, the mental baggage embedded via millions of years of evolution and the strange relationship between the conscious and the unconscious mind. Our knowledge of ancient primal behaviours (still present in the amygdala) is far from complete, but we don’t have to look far to see inexplicable murderous behaviours in our primate cousins. We are far from perfect and savagery lurks within us all.

    It is astonishingly easy for us to lose our grip on reality, either temporarily or permanently. I can’t feel empathetic towards vile murderers, but I understand the dispassionate analysis of such abominations by the likes of Sam Harris. I’m an atheist, so ultimatly I must concede to the brutal reality that the only deterrent for such behaviour is the punishment we dispense. There is no karma, no heaven/hell and no punishment beyond the grave. Here lies the danger zone for determinists and materialists – the slippery slope to abject nihilism is paved with good intellectual intentions, but logic and reason are unhappy bedfellows when faced with (for example) parents who murder their children.

  47. @Player One/1186

    Well, Malcolm Turnbull HAS met people in previous life before politics, he is one example.

    But would be true for the reverse, since politics does give you access to companies and countries.

Comments Page 24 of 27
1 … 23 24 25 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *