Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 27
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  2. LIBERAL BODY COUNT AT THE NSW ICAC:

    1. ARTHUR SINODINOS (NSW Senator)
    2. BARRY O’FARRELL (Ku-ring-gai)
    3. CHRIS HARTCHER (Terrigal)
    4. DARREN WEBBER (Wyong)
    5. MARIE FICARRA (upper house MP)
    6. TIM OWEN (Newcastle)
    7. ANDREW CORNWELL (Charlestown)
    8. GARRY EDWARDS (SWANSEA)
    9. BART BASSETT (LONDONDERRY)

  3. There are much larger questions than whether Julia Gillard opened a file or not, however much a firing squad offence that is,

    Who is leaking from the Australian Federal Police so that TV crews are ready fir selected arrests?

    Why do the AFP seem to only investigate alleged offences they’re asked to by right wing politicians?

    Why does a new government think it’s a correct use of taxpayer’s funds to start Royal Commissions for poitical purposes?

    Why is a Foreign Minister and government lauded as a success when we’ve had to apologise to several different nations and have offended another by interfering in their referendum?

    Why has the ABC converted to an LNP clearing house, pausing only to replace interviews with LNP ministers with interviews with ubiquitous IPA hacks?

    Finally, forget terrorism or phony AWU scenarios, this government will fall because they have no plan for the economy except to transfer money from the poor to the rich.

    And why isn’t that class warfare?

  4. Last scheduled spam run for:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/poll-roundup-one-year-on-magic-of.html

    Poll Roundup: One Year On / The Magic Of Newspoll Rounding

    Looks at the polling state of the Abbott government after one year and also explains how the parties of the left can gain four points of primary vote but only one point 2PP in this week’s Newspoll.

    ———

    Dug up Hawke’s polling one year in today (the Utas copy is in storage but the Hobart Library has a rather jumbled run of old Morgan Gallups.) One year after election Hawke had a netsat of +58 and his government was leading by 16 points. Actually that was just about his peak, he made +60 a month or so later.

  5. Re the multiple murder and suicide. Those commenting on here do not seem to know some of the background. Apparently the mother in the family was involved in a very serious car accident 2 years ago, and suffered serious head injuries, requiring her to be dependent on continuous care. It appears that the husband would have been under considerable ongoing pressure, and it seems likely that he has succumbed to profound psychotic depression.

  6. Gawd!

    News of the World did a secret DNA test on Prince Harry.

    Apparently, they were disappointed cos it didn’t yield the bombshell result they desired.

    It’s been revealed only because News of the World are no longer.

    Ummmm……isn’t that illegal?

  8. On Sunday
    [An extraordinary plot to obtain a sample of Prince Harry’s DNA has been uncovered by St James’s Palace.
    Last night, detectives from Scotland Yard’s elite Specialist Operations department – alerted by Prince Charles’s closest advisers – were investigating the conspiracy under a veil of secrecy.]

    But….

    [It is understood Sir Michael contacted the News of the World in the belief it may have been involved.
    Last night, in its only comment on the story, St James’s Palace said: ‘Tom Crone, legal manager of the News of the World, has given an assurance that the allegation that the News of the World has attempted or would attempt to obtain a sample of Prince Harry’s hair or any other thing upon which a DNA test could be made is utterly false and without foundation.’]

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-151501/Honey-trap-plot-snatch-Harrys-hair.html#ixzz3CuYa7145

  11. It pisses me off that I did a full high-quality bathroom renovation last year and nobody has bothered to enquire as to who paid for it. Nor have I been asked to produce invoices and receipts.

    Nothing. Not a thing.

    Nobody cares.

  13. I think it is an absolute disgrace that our first female PM has been subjected to this bull shit that took place like 9 decades ago.

    You Liberal bastards. You will get yours. Royal Commission into the framing of Peter Slipper for starters.

  16. Sprocket @ 1165

    “There’s nothing wrong with being bigoted if your bias is right”

    Ah, sounds familiar. Maybe someone should file that somewhere, maybe.

  18. [ Apparently the mother in the family was involved in a very serious car accident 2 years ago, and suffered serious head injuries, requiring her to be dependent on continuous care.]

    She had recovered and was working as a nurse.

  19. Scotland independence?

    Well that’s it, I want a Republic NOW!

    Get rid of that monarchy Queen King Bull-shit also.

    Poker cards – that’s where you should only find kings and Queens.

    I’m the jack of spades 😀

  20. Dee:

    You only have to look at the main prosecutors of the Gillard renovation ‘scandal’ to see that they have one thing in common: predominantly old, white men.

    Like I said before, the Gillard-AWU shit is largely driven by misogyny.

  22. [ Just wait for the Royal Commission in 20 years. ]

    Abbott is barely able to string an unscripted sentence together now! Imagine what he would be like having to give evidence in an RC in 20 years time?? A sad and bewildered fool asking where Peta is i reckon.

  23. confessions@1220

    Dee:

    You only have to look at the main prosecutors of the Gillard renovation ‘scandal’ to see that they have one thing in common: predominantly old, white men.

    Like I said before, the Gillard-AWU shit is largely driven by misogyny.

    Yes, of course.

    Everything bad that ever happens is driven by misogyny.

  24. I totally object to having my outrage at another woman and her kids murdered by the man in their house, as mental illness. That is the same as telling a rape victim to shut up and stop whining.

    So yes, Fran and Bemused, shove it where it fits. At least some on this blog are angered by this murder, though others seem to think the subject and my outrage amusing.

    I do not have mental problems. I just think that men who murder their women and kids are arseholes, and killing themselves afterwards just underlines their complete fkn cowardice. They are not men, they are the lowest form of parasite on earth.

  25. Royal Commission into Howards WMD lie.

    Royal Commission into Pyne/Brough/Hocket etc involvement conspiring to bring down a Government.

    Royal Commission into the Deaths of Asylum Seekers under the care of Morrison.

    Royal Commission into Bribes/payments to Liberal MP’s to support repeal of Carbon tax and MRRT

  26. The fact that a 20 year old stitched up political witch hunt in a stitched up political witch hunt Commission drives fresh allegations of Abbott OPENLY ADMITTING TO TRAVEL RORTS off the front pages is exactly why I am declaring independence referendum from the Australian mainstream media.

    Not another cent from me. Ever. Its over.

    I feel much better already. Go screw yourselves.

  29. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1224

    I totally object to having my outrage at another woman and her kids murdered by the man in their house, as mental illness. That is the same as telling a rape victim to shut up and stop whining.

    So yes, Fran and Bemused, shove it where it fits. At least some on this blog are angered by this murder, though others seem to think the subject and my outrage amusing.

    I do not have mental problems. I just think that men who murder their women and kids are arseholes, and killing themselves afterwards just underlines their complete fkn cowardice. They are not men, they are the lowest form of parasite on earth.

    Yes Puff, keep reassuring yourself, that’s right…

  30. King Farouk of Egypt, 1948: ” Soon there will be only five Kings left–the King of England, the King of Spades, The King of Clubs, the King of Hearts, and the King of Diamonds.”

    Well he was right about his own throne, but Monarchy has proved more enduring than he thought.

  32. Puffy

    There are plenty of VINDICTIVE fruit cake women around, believe me.

    If they had the physical strength, many men would have been murdered by women also.

    They’re both equally bad (and good) as each other.

  33. Confessions,

    I disagree. It is primarily driven by jealousy, incompetence, spite and a thorough lack of an imagination, coupled with the media’s obsession with innuendo. Notice how they always build this kind of thing up only to later exclaim, after Gillard has humiliated her accusers, “this was always going to be the outcome”. Well, no, mate. You were saying that this would end her all of two hours ago.

  34. Puffy:

    That case is sadly so like other cases where the kids get it because of whatever fucked up shit the man is dealing with when it comes to his partner.

    I long for the day we don’t have domestic violence campaigns, but it seems like that’s a longa way off.

  38. Centre@1232

    Puffy

    There are plenty of VINDICTIVE fruit cake women around, believe me.

    I believe you.

    There are a couple of examples on PB I think.

    Their rampant misandry is always coming to the fore, whatever happens.

  40. Diogenes@1235

    bemused

    I’ve met Puffy. She is as normal as anyone on the planet. Passion about a topic is not a sign of mental illness.

    You felt it necessary to perform an assessment?

    Passion is one thing, irrational and abusive hurling around of blame and accusation before the facts are known is quite another.

  41. [ Their rampant misandry is always coming to the fore, whatever happens. ]

    It’s not all men that can attract such dislike, bemused.

    In fact, here on PB it seems to be just you.

  42. Having worked in the prison system and in particular managed women’s prisons I can say that there are a significant number of women in prison for killing their kids.

    There is no gender bias…

  44. AussieAchmed@1242

    Having worked in the prison system and in particular managed women’s prisons I can say that there are a significant number of women in prison for killing their kids.

    There is no gender bias…

    Such things are just terrible, irrespective of the gender of the perpetrator.

  45. [It is primarily driven by jealousy, incompetence, spite and a thorough lack of an imagination,]

    Yeah and all that is true, just as much as a very large part of it is underpinned by misogyny.

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