Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [I’ve met Puffy. She is as normal as anyone on the planet. Passion about a topic is not a sign of mental illness.]

    Thank you Dio. My impression of Puff is that she is super normal and nowhere near in need of mental health counselling.

    I’ve always found it interesting that those who are inclined to declare themselves online advocates for mental health issues are the first to round on others without evidence as being in need of psychiatric treatment.

    I’ve always thought it said more about those people than it did the people they were criticising.

  3. There’s little doubt PMJG was slandered because she was leader of an ALP government.

    Were Julie Bishop to gain leadership of the LieNP you would see a lovefest from our biased MSM. It already shows with the failure to highlight Speaker Bishop’s ineptitude.

  5. ausdavo@1253

    There’s little doubt PMJG was slandered because she was leader of an ALP government.

    Were Julie Bishop to gain leadership of the LieNP you would see a lovefest from our biased MSM. It already shows with the failure to highlight Speaker Bishop’s ineptitude.

    Dead right!

  12. [Were Julie Bishop to gain leadership of the LieNP you would see a lovefest from our biased MSM.]

    Most likely, except that JBishop is the only MP in my living memory to have reported “big swinging dicks” hunting her down, a backstabbing phenomenon I’ve no doubt any male MP has ever read in the mainstream media about him.

  13. I find it intriguing that some men cannot handle the anger of a woman who is rightfully enraged that yet another woman and her kids have been murdered.

    Others are understanding, supportive and willing to let that anger be heard.

    But some, it seems, would prefer my silence.

  14. There is certainly a gender bias when it comes to crime, which has been observed for as long as people bothered to do so, going so far as to say the greatest factor in whether you are likely to be involved in violent crime, either as victim or perpetrator, is gender/sex.

    From memory, the only crimes where women equaled men was prostitution, which comes down to the definition of the crime more than anything else (it would follow the pattern if the crime was the purchase rather than the sale), and petty theft, where there was more or less equilibrium in offending. Saying the worst of the worst of women are as bad as the worst of the worse of men ignores that there are far less of the former.

  19. confessions@1262

    Were Julie Bishop to gain leadership of the LieNP you would see a lovefest from our biased MSM.


    Most likely, except that JBishop is the only MP in my living memory to have reported “big swinging dicks” hunting her down, a backstabbing phenomenon I’ve no doubt any male MP has ever read in the mainstream media about him.

    You are becoming incoherent.

  21. It is simple. In our society, women are the prey of men.

    That is why you teach your daughters to be careful when alone, and never to walk down dark alleys.

  22. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1263

    I find it intriguing that some men cannot handle the anger of a woman who is rightfully enraged that yet another woman and her kids have been murdered.

    Others are understanding, supportive and willing to let that anger be heard.

    But some, it seems, would prefer my silence.

    Your implication that somehow normal men approve of any such happenings is just offensive.

  25. There was an early criminologist who hypothesised that women did, in fact, offend at equal, if not greater, rates than men. The reason they appeared to do less was because they were sneaky about it and weren’t detected, through poison and cunning, etc. Because these offences were undetectable, it wasn’t quite proven in his thesis, but he was quite so sure of it, it’s hard not to disagree.

  26. After enduring 3 years of MSM vitriol PMJG was replaced by PMKR. The MSM pushed the meme that PMKR was the public choice. It was part of their plan to further destabilise the ALP. It worked – within days the MSM turned on PMKR and deputy PMAA with an absolutely filthy campaign right up to the 2013 election. In many ways they attacked PMKR worse than they had PMJG.

    Fortunately enough voters saw the real danger presented by Abbott to save possibly 25 seats.

    The reactionary forces with their near bottomless war chest are ready to do the same in the lead up to the next election. Perhaps only the power of internet communication can stop them. That’s why they are so keen to control & to hobble the internet.

  27. Dan,
    We can form trading blocks, or all deport our incalcitrants to their home state/country.

    Canberra could become a penal facility for the new Defederated Australia Group,aka DAG.

    Independent Northern Gina Kingdom gets all the Liberals.

  29. I’m not JG’s biggest fan and didn’t realise her contribution until long after she’s gone, but somehow I felt glad and happy to hear that voice on radio from the TURC after more than a year of silence.

    And on Labor running their own RC as revenge, I wonder if they should focus on the Asylum Seeker deaths. Though I wonder if somehow some members of Labor would implicate themselves on this.

    Secondly would probably be conflicts of interest from the repeal of MRRT and CT, and maybe Martin Ferguson will be implicated too?

  30. Centre

    [If they had the same physical power as men, I’d say women would be just as violent as men.]

    You’d be wrong. Crimes like armed robbery, auto theft, kidnapping etc which don’t rely on strength are still 90% committed by men.

  31. [I find it intriguing that some men cannot handle the anger of a woman who is rightfully enraged that yet another woman and her kids have been murdered. ]

    I don’t. I find those f*ckers to be nothing more than loud, abusive bunny boilers.

    The only sensible response to those people is to give them dead air. They aren’t worth your time in responding or even reading their misogynistic abuse.

  32. bemused
    Your categorizing of me as mentally ill because I get angry when women get murdered is more offensive than you can ever know.

  33. bemused
    Your categorizing of me as mentally ill because I get angry when women get murdered is more offensive than you can ever know.

  34. hehe good one Dan G @ 1267

    Oh, further from last night, the ARL had long term contractual arrangements with channel 9 which didn’t stop Rupie wanting it for his Super League 😯

  40. Centre,
    At the ARL meeting where Murdoch’s boys first proposed Super League, Kerry Packer (having gotten wind of what was happening) showed up, declared that he had the rights to the game, and would “sue the arse” off anyone who messed with those rights.
    Turned out that Murdoch and the Broncos were willing to risk their arses on that one.

  42. puff @1277

    😆

    centre @1284

    Yep. It was still all to do with Murdoch wanting control of a sport so he had something to put on FoxTel.

    Oh and going back a couple of days, WA had a team in the ARL (as it was called before the Super League fiasco), the Western Reds. They recruited Mark Geyer as their captain. They did ok for first timers. That lasted for a year before they joined the Super League, and when that folded, they disappeared.

    When I say disappeared, they only disappeared from the NRL. They actually still exist and are (probably) first cab off the rank when the NRL expands. Although, as you said, it’ll probably be a merger between them and a struggling Sydney side.

    Oh yeah, in that one year when the ARL existed, there was a team called the Adelaide Rams as well. Similarly, they joined the Super League and subsequently “disappeared” as well.

  44. [
    Surely, after 20 years, it is time to finally give up on the story about the young lawyer, who was to become prime minister, and her “dodgy boyfriend”, and whether he might have paid for the renovations necessitated by his demolition of her bathroom covered in ugly red and yellow tiles.
    ]
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/julia-gillard-surely-union-corruption-saga-must-now-move-on

    Discredits the royal commission and reminds us that Abbott is a thug..

    Hopefully there are a few in labor that a planning sweet revenge.

  46. Re Raaraa @1279: there probably will be a Royal Commission (or whatever they’ll be called after the Republic – it’s probably that far off) into the treatment if asylum seekers, including deaths in custody, assuming that Australia remains a democratic and basically decent country ( the latter is far from certain).

    Neither side will come out looking good.

  47. If scotland was to be independent they could set their own tax zones. Ireland’s tax rates are interesting. England now being separate would have no choice but to take its own economic steps . I suspect that these reasons are why some say independence could be a major problem.

  49. silmaj@1297

    If scotland was to be independent they could set their own tax zones. Ireland’s tax rates are interesting. England now being separate would have no choice but to take its own economic steps . I suspect that these reasons are why some say independence could be a major problem.

    Ireland’s tax rates are predatory.

    Tax that should be paid in Australia and elsewhere is being paid in Ireland at a much lower rate.

    This will not be permitted to continue.

  50. AJ Canberra

    That is absolutely spot on.

    When push came to shove, Kerry ran away like a dog with its tail between its legs.

    Kerry actually hid behind Optus to do the fighting. Why Kerry even bought the Super League rights 😆

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