BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. Just ot be clear, of course the VFT is an insanely nad invetment for Australia now. The last feasibility study, if honestly quoted, pointed out that it was not likely to be economic for another 20 years, and even then only if growth and fuel prices kept going up. Preserving a corridor was only recommended (in a gradual maner) as a precaution.

    For those who understand the technology, demand IS the problem. A modern VFT can move the equivalent of a jumbo jet full of passengers every six minutes. There is no inner city route in Australia with anywhere near that demand.

    The Tokyo Osaka Shinkansen moves 391,000 people PER DAY.
    The Sydney Melbourne route moves 6,800,000 people PER YEAR or 18,000 per day, approximately 20 times less demand!

    if peopel want to employ train builders, upgrade urban passenger rail or rural freight rail lines and get freight off rural highways onto trains. It will save dollars, lives and greenhouse gases.

  2. Socrates

    Truzzz on Joyce question says QANTAS reckon “The worst days are behind them.” .Wasn’t that what Joyce said a couple of years back ? Oh and just for good measure he gave the “carbon tax” a run .

  3. Anyone would think we’re on DEFCON 1.

    This is a sign of how desperately inadequate this Govt is re domestic budget policy.

  4. is it just me, or is Pyne daily looking more like the Riddler or the green goblin or some other demented smiling second rate super-villain? or has he just taken a leaf out of the stressed out mum in the film Ballroom Dancing – “Happy Face! Today I’ve got on my Happy Face!”. he seems to have the same demented lord haw haw grin all the time. tool.

  5. SF

    [is it just me, or is Pyne daily looking more like the Riddler or the green goblin or some other demented smiling second rate super-villain? or has he just taken a leaf out of the stressed out mum in the film Ballroom Dancing – “Happy Face! Today I’ve got on my Happy Face!”. he seems to have the same demented lord haw haw grin all the time. tool.]

    Pyne is shamelessly with his happy face, making the argument that the uni reforms will be just marvellous

  6. Not just you, SF. He really is an odious smirking creep. It is to Howard’s credit that he refused to promote him to any senior position.

    OTOH, Pyne’s whole act is not helping the government or the conservative cause. So there is something to be said for encouraging him to keep at it as hard and publicly as he can.

  7. I highly suggest that anyone interested in how the VFT idea stacks up read the very comprehensive HSR Phase 2 report. It’s neither the inevitable white elephant suggested by opponents, nor the no-brainer suggested by supporters – it’s likely viable, but not by a huge margin.

    The report is quite interesting in its own right, anyway – for example, a large proportion of the capital cost is due to the extensive tunnelling required to reach the Sydney CBD.

    https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/high_speed/

  8. I am intrigued by the lack of comment on PB re Parly. Is it because it is boring, or is Labor not landing any gloves on the Govt?

  9. Lynchpin

    Mot much happening QT. Most of the questions have been on War Memorials from Labor.

    Terror, Boats. Education and Fraudband

  10. Lynchpin

    If you watched QT on any other day this week you would hear the same LNP questions and as a treat Abbott giving the same answers. Pretty Zzzzzz. Only excitement was all questions directed at Joe in the first few days. Joe gave his full repertoire from Surly Joe to Jolly Joe.

  11. Bishop is always punting Labor MP’s & I can’t hear what they’ve said. All I can here is Hockey bellowing suck it up.

  12. Soc

    A promise I made is to make HS2 go. That, I think, is an OK thing. Longer on would be better there.

    Doing fast rail here not feasible for 5 Decades.

    (So I’m left with being unpaid while this goes on).

  13. In my field I’ve become pretty good at spotting clients who are going to be a total pain in the arse. Sussan Ley fits that description like a glove.

  14. Tony Abbott On Pensions following Hockey the other day:

    “Madam Speaker, yet again the leader of the opposition is simply wrong. He is simply wrong. Pensions go up every single year. The leader of the opposition should stop running around the country scaring people, scaring people with lies.”

    Now accusations at Labor.

  15. 211

    With another large chunk of the money spent on the Melbourne end tunnelling. Using existing lines would save a lot of money.

  16. CTar1

    On current HS2 plans is Aberdeen the “end of the line” ? Also could you please get them to change the name? As a lab peasant I keep seeing it as Hydrogen Sulphide H2S aka rotten egg gas.

  17. 201

    For the Sydney-Melbourne you also have to include intermediate destinations. Sydney-Canberra, Melbourne-Canberra, Sydney-Wagga Wagga, Melbourne-Wagga Wagga, Sydney-Albury, Melbourne-Albury, etc. Is that included in your figures?

  18. Tom the 1st@226:

    The report indicates only 8km required in Melbourne as compared to 67km in Sydney.

    It was also determined that dedicated lines would be required in order to be competitive with flying, due to journey time and reliability issues.

  19. caf

    The current Melbourne train lands at Central. Getting a VFT to the same platform replacing that train would not require tunnels.

    Some work on the track and approach maybe but not tunnels.

  20. 231

    Europe manages to do good high speed trains with mixed track. We can as well. It may require some surface track upgrade that can also be used for regional trains but still should be achievable.

  21. Tony Abbott said before the election “…no cuts to the ABC or SBS”. He was lying.

    [Further cuts to the ABC budget, first flagged in May, are shaping up to be far larger than expected, with insiders describing the situation as “very dire”.

    Numerous sources have told Crikey the ABC and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull had been close to announcing a negotiated cut of $50 million. This would be close to the 4% figure reported in The Australian in June. However, Crikey understands this was seen as insufficient to other members of the government — in particular the cabinet’s expenditure review committee (ERC). The situation remains very much in flux, but figures as high as a $100 million cut are being floated. A cut of that magnitude would remove nearly 10% of the ABC’s funding and come on top of the 1% cut to the ABC’s recurrent funding announced in the May budget.]

  22. poroti

    [Also could you please get them to change the name?]

    ‘trucken as fast as I can go on this.

    The UK line is a certainty.

    Us doing it way to soon.

    Soc knows more than I do on this.

  23. Socrates

    Indeed. It is all true. Regrettably, HSPR would not be a useful contribution on the Eastern Seaboard of Australia, much as the idea appeals aesthetically. I doubt it’s only old lefties like me who just love the idea of trains — and not just the really fast ones.

    There might be a case for improving rail service from, for example, Newcastle and the Central Coast or Wollongong or Camden or Katoomba to Sydney. That might be viable.

    A much better project involves getting long haul cargo off interurban roads and then creating the hubs to rapidly ship them via road to where they are supposed to go. That ticks boxes not only for the environment but road safety. You don’t need those trains to go particularly quickly. A steady 100 kmh is fine.

  24. Tom the 1st@233:

    One of the problems faced here is that the urban train networks, in particular in Sydney, are already suffering from capacity issues which are only going to increase in the timeframe looked at for building HSR.

  25. Following on from the debate over high speed rail, the Chinese have been actively pushing sales of their technology around the world, including Australia.

    This is to provide markets for construction firms that apparently have excess capacity due to slower than hoped construction within China.

    An article today in peopledaily.com.cn

    [The hopes on the railway sector are not confined to the domestic market as promoting the construction of more projects overseas is also on the Chinese leaders’ agenda.

    In his talks with visiting Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe on Tuesday, Premier Li said China will “actively support” a proposal to build high-speed railways connecting capitals and major business centers in Africa.

    Previously, the premier has tried to sell China’s high-speed railway technologies to central and eastern Europe, Britain, Australia, southeast Asian countries and the United States.

    It has earned him a nickname as the country’s “super salesman”.

    The global outlook of China’s high-speed railways was boosted by a World Bank report in July, which said construction costs per meter of rail are significantly lower in China than in Europe and the U.S. as a result of high volume, low costs of land acquisition and a cheaper labor force.]

  26. Update on MH370 search by Truss – Abbott seems to have lost interest.

    [Australia said Thursday the hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 will focus on the southern part of the existing search zone after new information suggested it “may have turned south” earlier than thought.

    The new detail came after “further refinement” of satellite data and as investigators attempted to map the position of the jet during a failed attempt to contact it earlier in its flight path, Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said.

    “The search area remains the same, but some of the information that we now have suggests to us that areas a little further to the south — within the search area, but a little further to the south — are of particular interest and priority in the search area,” he said.]

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/24838280/australia-says-mh370-may-have-turned-south-earlier-than-thought/

  27. Who gives a 9yo girl an Uzi?

    Americans.

    The worst thing: Many of them honestly think we look at their society and envy them. In fact, we pity them.

    Imprisoned in ideological bullshit, barely escaping the state of nature.

  28. caf

    Congestion on urban rail. The biggest loss due Obeid in Sydney. The Liberals went away from making Parramatta a Central 2.

    This would have enabled lines to cross the existing network creating more routes and lots less congestion.

  29. There was kind of circular argument advanced by an American academic on the BBC overnight of Americans thinking that since their society is so gun laden that at least kids should be educated in their safe use should they come across a weapon.

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