BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 24
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  2. “Self evidently the numbers are there”

    “Self evidently the numbers aren’t there.”

    Self-evidently, this is not an obvious question with a self-evident answer one way or another. Clearly there is a potential customer base that makes the question reasonable. Whether a level of service can be provided at a price point that would translate that potential base into actual customers is a whole other matter that can hardly be done by inspection.

  3. You can’t base feasibility purely on numbers for one leg of the VFT.

    Even then it’s not viable to buy up the corridor of land from Melbourne to Sydney including huge swathes of built up areas.

  4. RE The VFT. i’d rather see $ invested in VF-NBN as this could eliminate the need for many business flights between sydney and melb and canberra, and environmentally and productivity wise is a no-brainer. Many love the ‘commute’ because it makes them feel important and allows them to bill big $$ for sitting on their arse travelling – it is not often you can get paid for 8 hours to attend a 2 hour meeting.

  6. Diogenes

    As you yourself have already admitted the arguments against VFT are about numbers. Given the number of flights per year between Syd Mlb numbers are not the issue.

    Mr Albanese is not a stupid man and was a good transport minister. He did not start up the process of reserving a corridor for a VFT for nothing.

  7. [Self evidently the numbers aren’t there.]

    You are probably right but given this weeks NBN farce it might be wise to review the reports focusing not on the conclusions but on who commissioned them and who wrote them.

  8. [It can be done by inspecting the six feasibility studies all if which say its not a goer.]

    I tend to agree with you (as much as I am in love with the *idea* of a VFT) but I don’t think basing an answer on detailed economic modelling counts as a ‘self-evident’ proposition in any reasonable sense of the word. (Yes, I know you were just being rhetorical.)

  9. Albo did that for the feel good vote knowing he’d never have to follow through on it.

    [A secretive $250,000 payment to Kathy Jackson’s union from the Peter MacCallum cancer hospital was based on grossly inflated legal fees that Ms Jackson had claimed her union had incurred.]

    Someone really needs to look at the Peter Mac. This looks very dodgy.

  12. “@hughriminton: Sen. Nick Xenophon questions if Alan Joyce and #QANTAS have met continuous disclosure rules, calls $2.8b loss “disastrous” @TenNewsSydney”

  13. Diogenes@136:

    [There have been numerous feasibility studies for VFT and they all show it’s not viable.]

    That’s just not true. The most recent study, the Department of Infrastructure’s High Speed Rail Phase 2 study completed last year found:

    [The HSR program and the majority of its individual stages are expected to produce only a small positive financial return on investment. Governments would be required to fund the majority of the upfront capital costs.

    If HSR passenger projections were met at the fare levels proposed, the HSR system, once operational, could generate sufficient fare revenue and other revenue to meet operating costs without ongoing public subsidy.]

    https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/high_speed/

  14. Jon faine of ABC774 has been examining the higher education reforms in great detail. He has been very good in outlining what these changes mean for students

  16. it generally annoys me with feasibility studies that they generally do not come from the impartial positions of ‘what would realistically be the most cost effective way to achieve this?’. most of these very expensive reports reflect the biases and positions of whomever funds them. seemingly small things such choice of discount rates and depreciation periods can be used to influence the cost-benefit outcomes. I much prefer to see a range of variables used and reporting on what would need to happen to make a project work (and potential pitfalls) and the probability of it coming off. monte carlo modelling is always good to show the most probable outcomes, with worst case and best case risk assessment and mitigation planning. I doubt a VFT is likely to be cost-effective. The greenhouse impacts of air travel might better be addressed through biofuels and potentially deliberate global dimming additives (I don’t love this geo-engineering ‘solution’, but I suspect it is going to be needed – china’s move to cleaner air may have significant impact on global dimming and warming).

  19. Re VFT: Britain has a population of 64 million in an area about the size of Victoria. France has a similar population in about double that area. Japan has a population of about 126 million in an area about one and a half times that of Victoria and similar to that of NSW if we exclude the sparsely populated Western half of that state.

    Looking to SE Australia, there is a total population of about 14 million living in SE Qld, the Eastern third of NSW and Central Victoria, an area comparable to that of France.

    Even allowing for the fact that international and interstate visitors would use it, a VFT for SE Australia would likely have only about 20% of the potential customer base of VFTs in Europe and Japan. It would not therefore be surprising that the numbers for an Australian VFT don’t add up

  20. steve777

    Wrong. Look at flights between Sydney and Melbourne compare that to London Paris. Let alone the lower demographic routes un the EU serviced by VFT. Its the number of customers per trip for viability not the population of the country

  21. Did the Peter Mac know they were paying way over the odds to Jackson? Doesn’t there have to be some justification for the amount of legal fees requested?

    [Ms Jackson has said, under oath, the $250,000 payment was for costs the union incurred in pursuing the back-pay claim including solicitor’s fees to Slater & Gordon of $65,740. But the fresh evidence to the royal commission reveals that Slater & Gordon only charged the union for $1122.
    ]

    It’s hard to escape the conclusion that Jackson should be in jail.

  22. AA

    1572 ??

    In a couple of days they’ll be doing this –

    [July 29 – August 2 – A large Crimean Tatar–Ottoman army which invaded Russia is routed in the Battle of Molodi.

    August 18 – Huguenot King Henry III of Navarre marries Marguerite de Valois, sister of King Charles and daughter of Catherine de Medici, in a supposed attempt to reconcile Protestants and Catholics in France.]

    There’s ‘+’ and ‘-‘ in this.

  23. #TURC

    The dirty laundry basket has been removed.
    For a moment there I thought it would be replaced by a Pistorius-type bucket.

    A very stony-faced Ms Jackson, some might say, hostile – is now, eyes downcast, facing her former lover.

    Riveting viewing.

    http://commcast.com.au/turc/

  24. [Looks like they going after Bishop as the next Lib Leader:
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-gathers-support-as-next-lib-leader-20140827-1090yf.html%5D

    I hadn’t read that when I posted earlier today. she’s in the ‘bradbury’ position as all other candidates fall over and self inflect mortal wounds with their skates. I think the far right will opt for Morrison rather than Bishop, and there are more of them after the last election than there were when abbott toppled tunrbull by a single vote. best outcome for mine – a three way contest with abbott winning after knocking out morrison in the first round due to a split right wing vote. I expect abbott will call for a spill before the others get their numbers together. second best option – morrison wins and abbott whiteants him a la Rudd.

  25. guytaur

    [yd Mlb numbers are not the issue.]

    I know it’s an attractive idea and would make us look flash but the money is in freight movement.

    And we have ‘jack’ of that.

  27. Retweeted by Graeme Innes
    NDIS ‏@NDIS 1h

    ‘The @NDIS is for people with disability to realise their own dreams and aspirations’ – Liz Cairns #nswcidconf14

  28. Ctar

    We can do both. After all its just the new capital works that cost. It makes it like building a new train line between Sydney and Newcastle to replace the old slow one. Its a train in the end after all. We even have trains going from Sydney to Dubbo and no one is saying we shouldn’t.

    Compared to some of those country lines VFT for major centres makes great sense

  32. “@KnottMatthew: The govt will attempt to knock back on commercial in confidence grounds the Senate motion demanding it release ABC/SBS efficiency review”

  35. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 40s

    Also, the government isn’t mentioning anymore that they promised all premises on 25Mbps download speeds by the end of their first term.

  37. There are just so many jokes to be had re kJackson and her application not to be cross-examined by the HSU’s lawyer, Mark Irving, due to their history of a sexual relationship.
    I likened KJackson and her former husband’s dramas as days of our lives. Just when you thought things could not get anymore weird

  38. Looking back at 186, I wonder if anyone’s done a Charlie Brown comic twist on the government. I’d like to know who they’ll portray as the adult voice of the trumpet. Probably scientists and reputable economists.

  39. Labor could ask Pyne during QT whether or not he still wants Labor to apologise to KJackson. You know for being a hero and a whistleblower and all that…….

  43. Mildly amused by one of Katharine Murphy’s assertions in her politics blog.

    She has a photo of Kate Ellis, Adam Bandt, and Pyne waiting at The Doors for their turn at the camera, with this comment —

    [You never see this bit, when “foes” hang about with each other in convivial fashion.

    Here was Christopher Pyne, Labor’s Kate Ellis, and Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt, having a laff, before turning the rhetorical guns on one another about the higher ed package.]

    Except the only person who looks at all amused by anything is Pyne, and there seems to be zero interaction between the three (Pyne is looking at Ellis, but there’s no indication she even knows he’s there…)

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2014/aug/28/australia-to-stand-with-us-in-any-iraq-fight-politics-live

  50. poroti

    You have to wonder what he has on the board? I mean this is the second huge loss in three years. By now his much trumpeted new strategy was supposed to be reaping profits. Fuel prices have not actually changed much in the last year. This is on him. The airline pilots and staff were right – his strategy was a crock – just management gobbledigook taken from the textbook whether it fitted or not.

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