BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  2. victoria

    As students were getting settled in a carton of wine was being delivered. Might not be a big help in making for a quiet outcome for the libs 🙂

  8. Poroti and Victoria

    Think that is why there was so much outrage, in my case both my father and husband Others have also commented on twitter. bbott is a grub the only thing keeping him in ffice is the even bigger grub Murdoch

    TBWorth Thank you so glad to be back

  10. @andwcampbell: Haha, bumper sticker spotted in Botany: “Hi Joe, I’m poor and I drive. I’d give you a ride but I’m not going very far.” #auspol

  15. Victoria
    Yes me too but what is more important since I have come back LNP friends of mine(in a seat where I live you have to have them :grin:) I hardly talk politics only a few subtle?? comments when I can,but these have told me they will never vote for LNP again while TA, JH and CP are in power, ths is a major shft I can tell you. This was before the cancer rort by Tony Abbott too

  16. I don’t often post here, but I just wanted to vent my outrage at what I’ve just heard on ABC radio. Pyne spruiking his education “reforms” was asked by the interviewer if these were the biggest education reforms since Whitlam.

    Pyne’s response was that Whitlam’s reforms weren’t all that significant, because all they did was allow middle-class kids who already went to uni, to continue to go to uni free of charge. There was no change to the university demographic.

    By now I was screaming at the radio, but Pyne’s assertion went unchallenged by the interviewer.

    Well let me state that in my family the Whitlam reforms were significant. More than significant, they led to generational change. We basically went from an extended family whose members had never had access to tertiary education, to one for whom tertiary education was a birthright. The consequences for me, my siblings, my cousins and all our kids growing up today were profound. It’s hard to think of another government reform in history that has had such telling and far-reaching benefits. And while I can’t cite any statistical evidence, I’m confident that there were (are) thousands of families like ours all over Australia.

    Oh, and I’d like to think that this wasn’t just a benefit to us, but that the society we live in is better off as a result of this equality of opportunity.

    So to sit there and listen to this pathetically shrill excuse for a Minister not only question the great man’s reforms, but to dismiss them as trivial, well it really got my blood boiling.

    But I’m glad to have got it off my chest. Thanks for listening.

  18. Oh dear 🙂

    [Rome man begs for jail to escape wife during house arrest

    A 37-year-old, currently under house arrest, has asked a judge that he be placed in jail instead because his “constant fighting” with his wife was too much to bear.

    The unnamed father-of-three was just three months into his eight-month sentence for a series of minor crimes, but spending his days at home with his wife had proved to be anything but domestic bliss.

    “Put me inside, otherwise it will end badly,” he was told police at the Tor Bella Monaca police station in the east of Rome, according to Il Messaggero. ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/11059474/Rome-man-begs-for-jail-to-escape-wife-during-house-arrest.html

  20. Spray

    Your anger is more than understandable. These proposed changes to university funding are not for the benefit of all Australians, but for the elite.

  21. [Even more relevant is that MPs leaked against the PM.]

    THAT is the main story – and one the msm seem determined to ignore. Had this happened under gillard the headlines would have read ‘It’s on’ and journos would clamber to name the date of the challenge (ignoring how many times they’d previously written the same article nominating different dates where no challenge occurred). Never mind, I am sure the LNP are in-fighting very nicely this week. how long before abbott decides his only chance is a spill before others have the numbers lined up and then does a serious re-shuffle. Funny to say, but the LNPs best chance for a leader is probably Julie Bishop and a complete reshuffle with moderates and women in cabinet, with talc as treasures and deputy. However, the party being the puerile right and sexist outfit they are will not be able to see that.

  24. I liked Weatherill saying we are going to inflict maximum political pain and Palmer nodding in agreement.

    In that Mastercard ad parlance “priceless”

  28. victoria

    No surprise to me after the SA State election. Smart of Labor too.

    Not seen any Liberal Premier step up on an issue like that.

    It makes the government look more isolated

  29. Spray

    so was Pyne’s point that his reforms will stop ‘middle class’ kids going to uni based in merrit in favour of elite kids getting the elite uni spots (and having daddy or mummy’s company pay the deregulated fees for them). Me, most of my extended family, my wife, and many of my friends would never have gone to uni without whitlam’s reforms. Free and then low-HECS education pushed us all from lower middle and working class to upper- middle. Pyne’s argument is not helped by his plans to gut gonski to further entrench privilege and prevent merit-based access to higher education. the chinless wonder knows that he, abbott, hockey, joyce, etc would not be where they are today if educational opportunity was based on ability and need. the religious chaplains program is also just a cover for giving $ to private schools.

  30. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 3m

    The federal government has now put in AU$8.4 billion into the NBN. Which means it costs more now than Clive Palmer has said should be spent

  31. Will we get same criticism if they fail to pass 1 million?

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 29s

    NBN Co is aiming to pass 1 million premises by the end of this financial year, with 480,000 premises connected.

  32. A better excuse than just running away!!

    @JessMarie_News Palmer ends press conference in Canberra by declaring: “I have to go to the toilet.” #auspol #toomuchinformation

  34. [@JessMarie_News Palmer ends press conference in Canberra by declaring: “I have to go to the toilet.” #auspol #toomuchinformation]

    I think he has to publicly declare this so the queanbeyan waste water treatment facility can move to code red/battle stations mode.

  37. Spray@116

    My experience and reaction was exactly the same as yours.

    Pyne is a lying fuckwit, and the ABC is a disgrace not to pick him up on such outrageous comments.

  38. diogenes

    All ignoring the very real customer base shown by the existing facts of that air corridor compared to others around the world.

  41. Diogenes

    Then they lie because all the arguments I have seen are the numbers are not there to sustain such a service. Self evidently the numbers are there

  44. Diogenes

    Self evidently the numbers are there. Proven every day by the number of flights between Melbourne and Sydney. Existing numbers.

  48. Bill Morrow uses “Mandate” thing:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 31s

    “I believe the copper facility is fine to deliver these higher speed services” says NBN Co CEO Bill Morrow. Says Australians voted for it.

    So does mean we also voted for a war as well? Just some Australians voted for Coalition Party?

  50. Michelle Painter SC (barrister) appearing on behalf of Mr Irving, barrister in support of the application to cross-examine.

    Barristers can generate layer upon layer of representation if we try

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