BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. Jon faine talking about decline of apprenticeships

    Don’t need apprenticeships, Abbott and the corporations have got 457.

    Why train Aussie kids when you can just import people?

  2. [Superannuation tax concessions are perversely skewed in favour of high-income earners and should be scrapped, with a universal non-means-tested age pension created instead, a think tank says.

    David Ingles from The Australia Institute said superannuation tax concessions would soon cost more than the age pension, and with an ageing population Australia’s dual pension and superannuation system was only going to become more expensive.

    “Age pension spending is rising at about 7 per cent per annum, but tax concessions are rising much faster at about 11 per cent per annum,” Dr Ingles said.

    “The problem is that although the age pension is directed to low-income earners in particular, tax concessions disproportionately benefit high-income earners, and very markedly so. It’s quite perverse how much they benefit high-income earners.”]

    Read more:

  3. victoria

    CEO of Qantas presser due at 9.30 am]
    To compare and contrast with Air NZ ? 😆

    Qantas posts $2.8b loss]
    [It’s humming along like a well-oiled machine, increasing passengers and capacity rather than shrinking. Air New Zealand’s net profit rose from $NZ181 million last year to $NZ262 million in 2014.

    And the board is expecting the current year’s profit to improve again – which would make it the fourth consecutive year of earnings growth for the airline, which is 53 per cent owned by the New Zealand government.]

  4. Talking of rewriting history, Brandis is going the 10 degrees of difficulty with twist and pike.

    In all its “glory”….

    1096 Roman Catholic crusaders slaughter half the Jews in Worms, Germany.

    1098 Roman Catholic crusaders slaughter almost all of the inhabitants of the city of Antioch.

    1099 Roman Catholic crusaders massacre 70,000 Muslims and Jews when they capture Jerusalem.

    1208 – 1226 The Albigensian Crusades in southern France. Roman Catholic crusaders slaughter approximately 20,000 citizens of Beziers, France, on July 22, 1209. Albigensian Christians and Catholics were slain. By the time the Roman Catholic armies finished their “crusade,” almost the entire population of southern France (mostly Albigensian Christians) has been exterminated. During the six centuries of papal Inquisition that began in the 13th century, up to 50 million people were killed. Read what J. A. Wylie’s The History of Protestantism has to say about the Crusades against the Abigenses

    1236 Roman Catholic crusaders slaughter Jews in the Anjou and Poitou regions of western France. The Catholic crusaders trample to death under their horses 3000 Jews who refuse baptism.

    1243 Roman Catholic mobs burn alive all the Jews in Berlitz, Germany (near Berlin).

    1298 Roman Catholic mobs burn alive all Jews in Rottingen, Germany.

    April 26, 1349 Roman Catholic mobs burn to death all Jews in Germersheim, Germany.

    1348 – 1349 The Jews are blamed for the bubonic plague. Author Dave Hunt tells us, “Accused of causing the ‘Black Death’ Jews were rounded up [by Roman Catholic mobs] and hanged, burned, and drowned by the thousands in revenge.”

    1389 Roman Catholic mobs murder 3000 Jews in Prague when they refuse to be baptized.

    1481 – 1483 At the direction of the Roman Catholic inquisitors, authorities burn at the stake at least 2000 people during the first two years of the Spanish Inquisition.

    1540 – 1570 Roman Catholic armies butcher at least 900,000 Waldensian Christians of all ages during this 30-year period.

    1550 – 1560 Roman Catholic troops slaughter at least 250,000 Dutch Protestants via torture, hanging, and burning during this ten-year period.

    1553 – 1558 Roman Catholic Queen Mary I of England (aka “bloody Mary”) attempts to bring England back under the yoke of papal tyranny. During her reign, approximately 200 men and woman are burned to death at the sake. Her victims include bishops, scholars, and other Protestant leaders.

    1572 St. Bartholomew’s Day Massacre. French Roman Catholic soldiers begin killing Protestants in Paris on the night of August 24, 1572. The soldiers kill at least 10,000 Protestants during the first three days. At least 8000 more Protestants are killed as the slaughter spreads to the countryside.

    1618 – 1648 The Thirty Years’ War. This bloody, religious war is planned, instigated, and orchestrated by the Roman Catholic Jesuit order and its agents in an attempt to exterminate all the Protestants in Europe. Many countries in central Europe lose up to half their population.

    1641 – 1649 Eight years of Jesuit-instigated Roman Catholic butchery of Irish Protestants claims the lives of at least 100,000 Protestants.

    1685 French Roman Catholic soldiers slaughter approximately 500,000 French Protestant Huguenots on the orders of Roman Catholic King Louis 14 of France.

    Circa 1938 – 1945 Catholic dictators such as Adolf Hitler and Monsignor Tiso slaughter approximately six million Jews in Europe prior to and during World War 2.

    1941 – 1945 The Roman Catholic Ustashi in the fascist state of Croatia butcher up to one million Serbian Orthodox Christians. Roman Catholic killer squads are often led by Franciscan priests, monks, and friars. This genocide is choreographed by two Jesuit prelates: Aloysius Stepinac and Ivan Saric.

  5. Jun 24, 2014 – Qantas Town Hall meeting hears of $720 million group loss ….. means QANTAS will have an operational loss of approximately $400 million.

    Gone quickly to that $2.8bn

    It MUST be the fault of the Labor Party…..I wait to hear how

  6. AussieAchmed

    Michael Palin did a travel series that included following along the path of one of the Crusades. It was a case of laugh or cry when it came to one city. They arrived at a at the city gates but unfortunately did not speak the language. So they assumed they were Muslims and after demanding surrender slaughtered the lot. Shame it was actually a Christian city.

  7. Qantas can’t blame the carbon tax now.

    Its all the fault of the $106 million carbon price bill

    Oh hang on….passengers paid that as part of their fare….

    next excuse please….

  8. poroti

    [Observing from afar the Pomgolians are very touchy about them thar badgers.]

    They’re like kangaroos – There are more of them now than have ever existed.

    Hardly endangered.

  9. Aussie Achmed #56

    My, those Rock Choppers down through the years must have been really pissed off by the impending carbon tax. And blamed the Muslims.

  10. 1572 St. Bartholomew’s Day Massacre. French Roman Catholic soldiers begin killing Protestants in Paris on the night of August 24, 1572. The soldiers kill at least 10,000 Protestants during the first three days. At least 8000 more Protestants are killed as the slaughter spreads to the countryside.

    Not being religious, I’ve never been able to distinguish one persons religion from anothers while in the pub, walking down the street…or at work…etc….

  11. Good Morning


    Joyce could very well be going soon. Senator Xenophon has put in a complaint with ASIC

    Shorten presser

  12. [But the technical union Professionals Australia is furious, saying Mr Joyce’s tardiness had cost the corporation’s 64 scientists, researchers and bureaucrats their pay rises.
    The union’s ACT Director Dave Smith said the minister could have approved the deal before the new bargaining framework was imposed on 160,000 public servants.

    “Minister Joyce didn’t approve it despite having the capacity to do so,” Mr Smith said.]

    Read more:

  13. tielec

    [He’s trumpeting that he won’t get a pay rise, as if that was a magnanimous gesture.]
    It is a magnanimous gesture. Traditionally the board give themselves more money in direct proportion to the depth of shite they have piled on the company over the previous year.

  14. [ victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    CEO of Qantas presser due at 9.30 am. He should be announcing his resignation. What a frickin joke ]

    Yes he should be straight out the door – but he will be asking for taxpayer help again.

    It will be the workers fault again, still.

  15. Ben Sandilands (Crikey’s Plane Talking blog) explains the Qantas loss for 2013/14.

    There is a statutory loss after tax of $2.843 billion and an underlying loss after tax of $646 million. The smaller figure is related to (I think) their operating loss.

    The larger figure takes into account a write down of $2.6 billion in the value of its international fleet.

    These figures are an absolute disaster, particularly the severe contraction in the value of the Qantas and Jetstar fleet. Where will Qantas and Jetstar continue to fly with considerably fewer aircraft and employees?

    Does Alan Joyce really care?

  16. dave

    [It will be the workers fault again, still.]
    Compare and contrast with Air NZ management when they were in deep poo. The board and senior execs cut their salary by 20% , managers took a 10% cut and workers had a wage freeze. Pretty much the reverse order to Qantas’ approach.

  17. Poroti

    I can hardy believe it but still tweets etc are coming in this morning re Tony Abbott and cancer cover up rort. A lot from people I have never heard of before Certainly has struck a nerve

  18. I just note in passing that there is nothing about University deregulation in the Sydney edition of the Liberal Party Propaganda Journal (a.k.a. the ‘Daily Telegraph’). The lead story is about some ‘celebrity’ (who I’ve never heard of) being hit by a glass in a Sydney pub.

    It’s funny that they would ignore something as significant as the presentation of legislation for key education ‘reforms’ to the Federal Parliament, and also the ongong battle to have them passed.

    Has the Telecrap decided its readers aren’t interested in Higher Education? Or doesn’t it want them to know?

  19. Qantas has bleed capital for most of this century, firstly trying to break into some overseas routes. At that time domestic operations did very nicely.

    Then in more recent times they took virgin on in the domestic space, forcing a price and capacity war and bragging “for every 100 additional seats virgin makes available, Qantas will put on 200 seats”. Then both sides bleed more red ink chasing the lowest price.

    Domestic price wars have served Qantas well over the years when they were the biggest, but this time they have copped a hiding from those same tactics, which the MD of virgin an old Qantas man was only well aware of.

    Qantas is also playing the bluff game for all its worth.

    They need to face the market however like other businesses.

    The management and board also need to face the consequences of their very poor decisions.

    Give them nothing. Take them nowhere.

  20. [Steve777

    Has the Telecrap decided its readers aren’t interested in Higher Education? Or doesn’t it want them to know?]

    Its target demographic is is those with poor education.

  21. mari

    Good to hear. It hit my “outrage button” that he would use them just so he could trouser a couple of hundred bucks of taxpayers’ money.Not a good look.

  22. In general terms it seems that Hockey is destined to be the government’s sacrificial lamb, while Abbott is to be protected through his association with “national security” (supposedly vote winning) actions.

    Unfortunately, despite all the help he is given by the usual suspects, Abbott keeps doing and saying things that invite criticism and ridicule. His biggest critics currently seem to reside within his own party.

  23. I have to admit I am a big railfan and would love to see VFT someday.

    However, I think they’re only viable if they were kept wholely public, and I think in that case the businesses will scream bloody murder at a government monopoly competing unfairly against them.

    Of course I do think rail freight is the way to go and by what I’ve seen in Utopia, I don’t get why the big manager insists on linking up Sydney to the otherwise inland connection between Queensland and Victoria (other than for his VFT agenda).

    That saves all the sea and road shipping interstate. It doesn’t alleviate the argument about keeping trucks off the road in the inner-city by much though.

    The Vic Libs though want to see none of it, by keeping its head in the sand and having approved the B-triple lorries and the EW link.

  24. Yeah,

    Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Metamark Metanewton ‏@NewtonMark 30m

    AFP Keystone Kops accidentally publish sensitive telecommunications data. Archive it all, eh? She’ll be right.

    Powerful nut cases in control of our data.

  25. @sallymcmanus: It’s time for Alan Joyce to go. ASU members – check in staff, admin, operational have lost confidence #auspol #ausunions

  26. 2nd premier going to fall?

    “@NicholasDole: #ICAC hears Buildev exec tried to get Hartcher, Gallacher to organise briefing with then Treasurer Mike Baird to push coal loader plan.”

  27. lovin’ this:

    even though the tone of it is ‘poor tony/stop picking on him/all that’s wrong is some loose language’, I sense even savva is falling out of love with the abbott government.

    this is as close as the Oz could bring themselves to saying ‘deeply divided and grossly incompetent government’.

    can I make a prediction for the Vic election?:
    – as it becomes more obvious napthine is toast, the Hun will still go all out trying to damage labor the greens and andrews, but will finally editorialise that although dennis has been a good premier and andrews untested and inexperienced, there is the need for a government with a majority and the only way to achieve that is with a change of government and give the libs a short stint on the bench to re-group (under far right loons). they will promote putting the greens and indies last. Murdoch hacks will then claim that this shows they are not partisan or biased because they ‘endorsed’ the ALP in their final editorial before the landslide.

  28. A VFT is feasible in Australia. The Melb Syd air corridor is amongst the busiest in the world.

    The customers are there. Don’t believe the hype from the corporations that will lose out from servicing that air corridor.

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