BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  6. Massola is one of those journos who seems to think that Abbott is doing a good job with MH17 (despite the ministers being useless). Many people would disagree with his opinion of Abbott.

    [It’s hard not to feel a little sorry for Abbott who has seen his ministers make a series of gaffes while he has dealt ably with the MH17 crisis and looked assured on the world stage while delivering a key election promise to repeal the carbon tax.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/one-of-the-big-clangers-joe-hockey-had-no-choice-but-to-apologise-for-comments-about-poor-and-cars-20140815-3ds5r.html#ixzz3ARoMvg9o

  7. [I actually feel sorry for Hockey, I think the Liberal Party is casting about for blame at the moment after some truly horrible polling.]

    Joe looks like being the first sacrificial head. But of sympathy, I have none. He done it to himself, partly by the budget, partly by his woeful salesmanship of same, and partly by being a useful idiot for the more malignant swine in his own tribe.

    Let him eat cake.

  8. [ If Abbott makes a Cecil B de Mille production out of a funeral for the two identied MH17 victims I’ll puke! ]

    BK – he won’t be able to resist.

    Obviously he is being told he ‘does’ this sort of stuff sooo well – but heaps like us are repelled by him to start with and its worse for such ‘performances’.

  9. [ Probably right and your post makes much more sense than those of the moronic reflexive ABC bashers. ]

    The ABC will be left with just exactly the kind of geriatric entertainment network that people like you desire and deserve.

    I just hope that once the rest of the populace begins to realize how shortchanged they have been by our debased “national broadcaster”, that a strong and vital alternative media landscape will emerge.

  10. In all the Govt ducking and diving on the ‘budget’ the Nationals are cunning as a shi$house rat.

    i.e. Bunkered down / disappeared.

    😀

  12. Abbott’s past week has been a farce, he has been visiting people who don’t want to see or know him. It was as if he decided to have a week away in the ‘plane and said europe looks nice.

    Has an Australian PM ever visited the UK when the UK PM is on holiday before?

  13. [ Obviously he is being told he ‘does’ this sort of stuff sooo well – but heaps like us are repelled by him to start with and its worse for such ‘performances’. ]

    Sadly, this kind of thing “plays well” in retirement villages.

  19. It appears we are getting an out of control government, where every pea brained player is going solo. Discipline is non existent.

    Now we have Bernardi wilfully challenging Abbott from the lunar right wing..

    [Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi is set to defy Prime Minister Tony Abbott and co-sponsor a bill aimed at changing the Racial Discrimination Act, which the government abandoned just over a week ago.

    Family First Senator Bob Day is planning to introduce a compromise bill, which will simply strike out the words “offend and insult” from the legislation rather than entirely overhaul the section as the government has proposed.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cory-bernardi-to-defy-pm-by-cosponsoring-bill-aimed-at-altering-bolt-laws-20140815-3drh2.html

  21. @poroti/811

    I like how it’s called near the end a dysfunctional family.

    Sounds right too.

    We just need the rest of Australia to realize what idiots they voted for.

  22. [And well played it was. 🙂 ]

    Thank you, kind sir.

    May your loins be fruitful, or at least well pleased in the attempt.

    Regards
    A Western Island bro.

  23. Tom the first and best@768

    675

    If the ALP had stopping people risking their lives by seeking to come to Australia by boat as their top immigration priority, then they would have removing the massive fines ($10,000 per passenger) for airlines that fly people to Australia without a visa or an onward ticket as their policy. If those fines were removed then the people smuggling boat industry would disappear overnight on both cost and safety grounds.

    That is not ALP policy. ALP policy is to keep the fines. Therefore stopping the risk to lives is not the ALP`s top immigration policy. The ALP`s policy is to not let them in because they were not born in Australia and/or to Australians and they are poorer than almost all Australians.

    It’s posts like this that qualify Greens as LOONS.

    If your daft advice was followed, either our entire refugee program would soon be taken up by such people or we would endlessly lift the cap until utterly unsustainable numbers flooded in.

  24. lizzie@820

    Player One

    I get the impression that you think that anyone over 65 is an empty headed Liberal voter.

    No. My mother-in-law is 90 and has been transformed from a conservative to a stalwart ALP supporter by recent events. Sadly, I also have contact with many of her contemporaries in the retirement village she lives in – and they are 90% rusted on LNP supporters. They think Abbott is just the bee’s knees!

  25. [The ABC will be left with just exactly the kind of geriatric entertainment network…]

    If it is not defended by the public against hostile forces, and its independence strengthened, it certainly will.

  27. ruawake
    [.@TheProjectTV Here’s Joe Hockey parked in a disabled parking spot. #TheProjectTV]

    He can’t take a trick, can he, the silly old bastard.

    You’d think the Entitled One would be a bit more discerning about where his tax-payer-funded Comm Car parked; but those entitled-because-of-their-money types, who’ve never had to put their hand in their pocket/wallet, never learn.

    Who does Joe think he is? Queen Eliz?

    At the very least, he should attempt to carry a handbag.

  30. Just Me@825

    The ABC will be left with just exactly the kind of geriatric entertainment network…


    If it is not defended by the public against hostile forces, and its independence strengthened, it certainly will.

    I was a staunch defender of the ABC for many years.

    Now, I think it is too late to wrest control back from the conservative hoodlums (like Mark Scott) that are deliberately driving it into the ground. These vandals have done their job well. The only solution now is to scrap it and starting over.

  31. Joe Hockey didn’t say sorry for making that factually incorrect statement and then stubbornly defending the indefensible for two days.

  33. I may be wrong but I got the impression watching Joe’s so out of character grovelling performance on the news tonight that he had been told unceremoniously to apologize or be sacked.

    I’m guessing we will be seeing an even more unhappy treasurer from now on.

  35. 823

    That was not advice, just an explanation of facts. I did not, in that comment, advise anybody to adopt that policy. I am just saying that that is what the policy that would be the life saving as top priority policy. If you think saving lives is loony, so be it.

  38. [Mr Hockey said he wanted to get on with the job of explaining to Australians the Coalition government was focused on building a more prosperous and caring nation.]

    Do they really think Australians are going to fall for that one after what they’ve seen in the budget? Amazing.

  39. Abbott/Credlin must be thinking reshuffle

    Pyne – Industrial Relations
    Abetz – communications (can speak like a Dalek)
    Turnbull – Treasurer
    Dutton – Attorney General (he was a copper, so he could go the Jihadists!)
    Brandis – Veterans Affairs
    David Johnston – Health
    Julie Bishop – Defence

    Works for me….

  42. With all this feeling sorry for himself, it’s obvious Joe Hockey is badly misnamed: he should have been called Joe Softball.

  44. Player One@809

    Probably right and your post makes much more sense than those of the moronic reflexive ABC bashers.


    The ABC will be left with just exactly the kind of geriatric entertainment network that people like you desire and deserve.

    I just hope that once the rest of the populace begins to realize how shortchanged they have been by our debased “national broadcaster”, that a strong and vital alternative media landscape will emerge.

    You are dreaming.

    But I think you for you post, it clearly shows what a complete farqwit you are.

  45. ruawake,

    [Has an Australian PM ever visited the UK when the UK PM is on holiday before?]

    Did he meet the Queen, or did she decide the corgis needed to be taken for a walk?

  46. Darn @833

    I didn’t find Joe Hockey’s non-apology the least bit out of character. It was whiny, self-pitying, and self-indulgent. This is par for the course from him.

    I call it a non-apology because he didn’t say sorry for making a factually incorrect statement (“the poorest people don’t have cars or actually don’t drive very far”) and for digging his heels in for 48 hours instead of acknowledging the error promptly. A genuine apology would have acknowledged that this statement was wrong, and would have outlined the reasons why: many low-income people live in outer suburbs and rural areas which have limited or non-existed public transport; many low-income people work jobs (like casual construction jobs) which require you to drive your own car at your own expense – not possible to rely on public transport to reach out-of-the-way construction sites by six o’clock in the morning; low-income people drive older, less fuel efficient cars because they cannot afford the latest models.

    He apologized for his own political misfortune, not for his error.

  47. [And pinch his convenient partking spot]

    The thing with most disabled parking spots is not where they are its because they are wider than usual. This allows doors to be fully opened and legs to be swung out.

    It allows wheel chairs to fit beside a car door.

    It is one of my campaigns, to stop people using disabled parking spaces.

    The 4WDs who drop off the wife while the engine is running.
    The reverse in and hope nobody notices
    and The I don’t give a toss I will park where I feel like

    Are the usual 3 offenders, it seems Liberal Politicians are striving for #4

  48. [ But I think you for you post, it clearly shows what a complete farqwit you are. ]

    One day, I look forward to an intelligent response from you, or one that does not involve abuse.

    But I guess I am dreaming.

  49. If ever there was any doubt that the ABC should be sold of they should have seen the useless interview with Lib Gary Humphries on News 24 .. just a load of utter unchallenged crap… being “impartial ” & balanced doesn’t mean interviewers should have a lobotomy.

    Do we have to import all our journalists from the BBC or PBS ( USA) to get descent ones?

  50. Zoomster

    [Fran, you do seem to be doing the fallacious “these people are not acting according to MY principles, therefore they don’t have principles’ thing.]

    It’s certainly possible that they were following a principle of doing whatever they perceive will neutralise the issue in the Murdoch Press and allow them to talk about stuff they thought would help their cause. Being ‘tough on refugees’ seemed to be the demand of the Murdoch Press.

    I suppose that is a principle, but if that’s what it was it was

    a) odious
    b) impracticable and likely to strengthen rather than subvert the Murdoch Press’s stranglehold on the political process

    Certainly though, there was not a shred of genuine concern or compassion in any of it, notwithstanding the torrents of crocodile tears poured out over drownings or ‘people waiting patiently in camps in Africa’. These lines were purely cover for those on the left wanting to find an excuse for devising the cruelest dealing imaginable to staunch what they believed was their political bleeding on their right flank.

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