BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 21
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  1. As far as a Federal ICAC goes there is a petition at Change.org calling for the establishment of something along those lines. (There may be a couple of similar petitions at Change.org set up by different people, sign ‘em all I reckon.)

    I’ve got a feeling its been posted here before but if it hasn’t or you haven’t seen and signed it here is the link.

    http://www.change.org/en-AU/petitions/tony-abbott-and-bill-shorten-immediately-establish-a-federal-anti-corruption-watchdog

  2. So, with those pesky Ruski’s putting our Mesma in her place, what are the odds of big bad Vlad finding that he has more important things to do than come to Australia when the G20 rolls around??

    Or will he come just to make Abbott and Co, really squirm?? 🙂

  3. If this was in the media 24×7 like it was under Labor, Coalition wouldn’t be gaining polls:

    Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont · 8m

    Move over! Garry Edwards, Lib member for Swansea, has just joined the cross benches.

  5. Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont · 52s

    Lucky Owen & Cornwell quit parly, needed to make more room on cross benches. Now have Edwards, Spence, Webber, Gallacher, Hartcher #icac

  6. [Key Senate crossbencher Ricky Muir has criticised the Treasurer’s statements about poor people’s use of cars, saying not everyone in regional areas can “hop on cows and ride into town”.] 😆

    Lower income earners tend to live on the urban fringes where housing is more affordable but there is a lack of public transport and having a car is essential.

  7. [ No Austalian MH17 bodies to bring triumphantly home. A severely depleted supply of Iraqui Christians to bravely rescue.

    Abbott’s supply of unicorns is severely compromised. ]

    Watch him back off quick time is he is asked to resettle them in Australia.

  8. Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
    Adam Zwar ‏@adamzwar 3m

    Maurice Newman, adviser to the PM, says there’s no such thing as climate change or baldness.

  9. mikehilliard

    [Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.]

    Plus one from me!

    There but for the grace of God go I!

  10. [A misplaced mouse click has been blamed for issuing death notices of more than 200 living patients when they were discharged from a Melbourne hospital.

    Erroneous death notices were generated for every patient discharged from Austin Hospital on one day, and the forms then automatically faxed to each patient’s GP.]

    😯

  11. It seems soooo long ago, April 2014, didn’t Bruce Baird seek & receive assurance form LNP party room…that there were NO MORE sticky / corrupt fingers amongst them.
    Given the % of North Coast LNP pollies that are corrupt Bruce must be praying that ICAC don’t open another lead out of Newcastle

    Surly he should resign his & all minsters commissions & call in the administrators till the March election, given it can’t be held early… ether that or call a by- election for all NSW seats now.

  12. 1137
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 2:58 pm | PERMALINK
    1121
    mikehilliard
    [Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 2:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.]

    Agreed. It breaks my heart

  22. [@PhillipAdams_1 2m
    Noticed the further away from Australia the more popular-or less unpopular-Tony becomes? The distant galaxies beckon]

  23. BK

    [vic
    Will Baird declare?]

    Like in the very old days when batting teams would declare on sticky wickets to get the opposition in.

    Labour need to win 25 seats to win election. Via Newcastle etc 10 look in the bag outside Sydney to the north.

    To get to victory, I think they still need a leader which Sydney rates. As most ALP supporters don’t rate Robbo, cant see how Sydney will.

  24. Dee@6

    [Key Senate crossbencher Ricky Muir has criticised the Treasurer’s statements about poor people’s use of cars, saying not everyone in regional areas can “hop on cows and ride into town”.]

    Lower income earners tend to live on the urban fringes where housing is more affordable but there is a lack of public transport and having a car is essential.

    It is rather interesting to watch the development of Ricky Muir as a Senator. He really seems to be growing into the job after an unpromising start.

    Given his background, I suspected a lot of his values might be ‘Labor’ and this seems to point in that direction.

  26. From Jeff McCloy’s press release….

    “I did this with the intention of achieving a better outcome for the Hunter. These donations were given with no intention of seeking political favour.  This is a fact……However they were not entered into for personal gain, rather merely following what I believe is my constitutional right to be part of the political process.”

    SO there you go I did it for yous… & I’m off to the High Court to stop me from going to gaol… me & my other Liberal mates..

  27. MTBW@9

    mikehilliard

    Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.


    Plus one from me!

    There but for the grace of God go I!

    What puzzles me is that, given what is known about it, anyone would try it in the first place?

  29. sceptic@11

    It seems soooo long ago, April 2014, didn’t Bruce Baird seek & receive assurance form LNP party room…that there were NO MORE sticky / corrupt fingers amongst them.
    Given the % of North Coast LNP pollies that are corrupt Bruce must be praying that ICAC don’t open another lead out of Newcastle

    Surly he should resign his & all minsters commissions & call in the administrators till the March election, given it can’t be held early… ether that or call a by- election for all NSW seats now.

    Mike called in daddy Bruce to sort it out? 😛

  30. [ It seems soooo long ago, April 2014, didn’t Bruce Baird seek & receive assurance form LNP party room…that there were NO MORE sticky / corrupt fingers amongst them.

    Given the % of North Coast LNP pollies that are corrupt Bruce must be praying that ICAC don’t open another lead out of Newcastle ]

    Don’t you mean Mike? Bruce is his father.

    But he got away with how disgused he was re developments at ICAC on the media the other night.

    For *some* reason no one pointed out it is his Government and he is still refusing to extend the powers of ICAC before the next election.

    He is not being held to account.

  32. victoria

    [Bludgertrack is depressing.]

    Not that bad vic, a negative swing in every state + federally can’t be good for the LNP.

  33. There is hope for them yet!
    [SAN FRANCISCO — A federal judge says the University of California can deny course credit to applicants from Christian high schools whose textbooks declare the Bible infallible and reject evolution.

    Rejecting claims of religious discrimination and stifling of free expression, U.S. District Judge James Otero of Los Angeles said UC’s review committees cited legitimate reasons for rejecting the texts – not because they contained religious viewpoints, but because they omitted important topics in science and history and failed to teach critical thinking.]

  36. Perhaps Senator Muir could take Hockey down to his part of Victoria for a ride in a poor person’s car.

    His media advisor should at least have the Senator issue an invitation even if Hockey would never accept it…

  37. [sceptic
    maybe Mike can go on 7.30 & answer some hard questions from Chris.
    Ta for the laugh ]

    Hahahhahahhahahha

    Chris Uhlmann’s “foot rub” interviews for LNP figures are legendary.

  38. Maurice Newman (oh, the Dickensian irony) regards efforts to mitigate the risk of global warming as nothing more than a primitive belief akin to sacrificial appeasement to the Gods.

    His opinion raises the following questions in open minds. First, does Newman have access to peer-reviewed scientific literature that refute the orthodox scientific opinion (i.e. IPCC, NASA, CSIRO, Academies of Science worldwide, etc) that failure to mitigate atmospheric carbon will lead to untold damage to the Earth’s current biosphere generally and humans specifically. If so, this is great news and Maurice should not be shy in revealing the scientific source he relies upon so that we can adequately evaluate his claim.

    If he relies on no scientific literature then it must be that as a “new” man, Maureece has found scientific method as currently practised (the method that gives us exotic medicines, electronic gadgets and the Higgs Bosun) to be seriously deficient in informing us about the world around us (i.e. “reality).

    If so Maureece needs to explain:
    (a) why scientific method is deficient? and
    (b) why his “new” methodology will better assist us in understanding the world around us?

    Pending acceptable answers to the above questions no rational person could take Newman seriously and his opinion should be disregarded.

  39. Bemused

    re Muir
    _________
    Yes …Like you I suspect he is more attuned to Labor values..being a working man in a timber mill(we don’t get many workers in P’Ment do we)and battling with 5 kids

    When did we last have an engine driver for instance

  40. Abbott is apparently going for a sectarian refugee program…yes to Iraq christians..but No …to any chance for some Gazan moslems who are homeless and with many of their kids dead…murdered by the IDF ?

    chttp://www.afr.com/p/national/australia_to_accept_syrian_and_iraqi_V0qyrZf033eb6jxjwqyULK

  41. Just received a letter from our energy supplier advising of price rises. Peak electricity is up by 1.3 ¢/kWh, the supply charge by 3.75 ¢/day and the solar rebate is dropping by 2.2 ¢/kWh.

    Where’s my $500 Mr Abbott? Please explain!!

  43. Retweeted by Adam Bandt
    Marcus Westbury ‏@unsungsongs 6h

    . @JoeHockey clarifies new govt policy only allows the poor to drive one way to job interviews. If you don’t get it you walk home.

  44. [“Joe Hockey needs to come back to planet Earth, from planet Hockey.” Says Shorten
    ]

    Oh dear.

    As others have noted, only Bishop J and Morrisson now in the race to succeed Abbott.

    Bishop J would run just to make it look like a contest, but ultimately doesn’t have enough factional support and does not have a penis or children.

  45. [. @JoeHockey clarifies new govt policy only allows the poor to drive one way to job interviews. If you don’t get it you walk home.]
    And this must be repeated 40 times per months.

  49. [ ruawake
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Would the 9 resigned Libs get official party status if 500 of their supporters joined the “I got boned by ICAC party”. ]

    The probability remains that mike baird will be re-elected despite ICAC and despite his plans to sell everything in sight.

    That may change in the coming months but no sign atm.

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