BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. [bemused
    Posted Friday, August 15, 2014 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Jake@954
    I think the ABC should be given to News Corp.
    Mad Lib will love you.]

    Everything loves Everyone

  2. Steve777@997

    I mostly support Labor but I respect the Greens. Both have their faults. Labor is sometimes too afraid of frightening the horses. The Greens let the perfect become the enemy if the good.

    Labor has the hard task of winning votes off the Libs whereas the parasitic Greens can content themselves with prising a few votes off Labor with appeals to ideological purity.

  3. Next week the favourite of the Greens, the mining companies are going to report.

    Monday – Newcrest

    Tuesday – BHP

    Wednesday – Woodside.

    One will be Bad.

    One will be Sensational.

    One will be good.

    In that order 😛

  4. bemused

    That’s Green bashing. Labor lost more seats to the Liberals because people who voted Labor in 2010voted Liberal in 2013.

    Facts prove it. Otherwise it would be a Labor PM now

  5. [bemused
    ….Labor has the hard task of winning votes off the Libs whereas the parasitic Greens can content themselves with prising a few votes off Labor with appeals to ideological purity.]

    There are 150 seats in the HOR:
    In 1 seat votes for the Greens end up with the Greens (Bandt)
    In 149 seats, votes for the Greens end up (well ~80%) with the ALP

  6. Mad Lib@1002

    bemused
    Posted Friday, August 15, 2014 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Jake@954
    I think the ABC should be given to News Corp.
    Mad Lib will love you.


    Mad Lib loves Everyone

    Unrequited love. How sad.

  7. [Nothing much to sell.]

    Not so. This govt when in opposition, unlike any opposition previously, came to govt with so many promises and so many expectations. It was as if the country breathed a sigh of relief that the Labor govt had been shanked. They also came to govt having been given the easiest of rides by our media with barely any scrutiny whatsoever.

    If anything this govt had a mammoth story to tell, a compliant media willing to hear it, and the public goodwill to potentially lap it all up. Yes their story sucked big time, but the failure to present it to people in a coherent manner is entirely their own fault.

  8. Joe Hocket this week has joined an elite list:

    The best ever campaign by an opposition leader – K.Rudd defeating John Howard in 2007.

    The best speech ever given in the Australian parliament – Julia Gillard’s misogyny speech.

    The best most OUT OF TOUCH comment EVER made by any federal member of parliament?

    “rich people do not own cars and if they do , they don’t drive very far”.

    They don’t drive very far…can you believe it?

    What a stupid bastard, forget your apology, just resign!

  9. guytaur@1006

    bemused

    That’s Green bashing. Labor lost more seats to the Liberals because people who voted Labor in 2010voted Liberal in 2013.


    No shit Sherlock!


    Facts prove it. Otherwise it would be a Labor PM now

    Oh I get it, if Labor loses an election it is no longer in government. 😀

  10. 1007

    Actually it is three seats, at both the 2010 and 2013 elections, where Greens primary votes do not get distributed. Melbourne, Batman and Grayndler (2010) or Wills (2013).

  11. [Hell, the Greens have cost Labor two (2) Prime Ministers.]

    The Greens played their part, but there were other critical factors in it that process that had nothing to do with them.

  12. Heresy, I know.

    I don’t think Gillard would have been much different to the way that stupid piece of junk Abbott is behaving. At the start if her premiership.

    Why?

    Because as far as I’m concerned we’re too much in thrall of the US. Gillard too would have been sucked in by the CIA’s rotten agenda.

    Having said that,I also think Gillard, at this stage of the game, would have had the balls to tell the Yanks to piss off. Abbott never would.

    He’s too busy being Billy Bunter. Or Joe Hockey is. Hard to tell.

    Run home, Abbott. Face up. Square up. Stop showing us how pathetically useless you are.

  13. Centre@1021

    What do the Greens now stand for given that the carbon tax has R.I.P.’ed?

    More boats?

    Good luck with that!

    Abolition of visas for arrivals by air.

    We got it tonight from TTFAB.

  14. Guytaur

    Before you go, the Greens have been really quiet since the burial of the carbon tax.

    Obviously there is no other issue for them to talk about (oh except for SHY wanting to bring in more boats). Goes to show their irrelevancy.

  15. Centre

    [Money makes the planet rotate at its axis (centre) :D:]

    Oh, ho ho ho.

    Call an ambulance. My sides are splitting.

    So why don’t you put your money where your mouth is? Make it your name. Be real, for a change.

  16. Speaking of parties peeling votes off one another, can a party be in a broad spectrum that it can capture both left and right?

    ALP in moving to the right on AS and social issues have lost some of its left to the Socialist Left and the Greens.

    The Greens in moving towards centrist politics have lost some of its left to the extreme left and socialist / communist parties.

    Liberals have moved to the right to gain some right-wing policies have lost the centre to the populist PUP and Labor.

    And lastly, Nationals in keeping up with the Libs are going to end up in the wilderness.

  17. Raaraa@1036

    Speaking of parties peeling votes off one another, can a party be in a broad spectrum that it can capture both left and right?

    ALP in moving to the right on AS and social issues have lost some of its left to the Socialist Left and the Greens.

    The Greens in moving towards centrist politics have lost some of its left to the extreme left and socialist / communist parties.

    Liberals have moved to the right to gain some right-wing policies have lost the centre to the populist PUP and Labor.

    And lastly, Nationals in keeping up with the Libs are going to end up in the wilderness.

    Bizarre!

    The ‘Socialist Left’ is a faction in the ALP.

    What Communist Party? AFAIAA the CPA disappeared sometime in the last century.

  18. 1025

    Allowing people to fly to Australia without a visa, by stopping fining airlines for flying people without visas or onward tickets, and thus claim refugee status at passport control without any prior visa is not abolishing visas. Nor did I actually advocate that (although it is a change I think should happen).

    I merely pointed out that is the policy anyone who wants, as their top priority, to stop people risking their lives in small boats to get to Australia needs to adopt to get that outcome.

    I personally oppose immigration control. All people should have equal rights to live in any jurisdiction they want to unless they are in prison, on parole, incapable of making the decision for themself or they needs quarantining.

  19. bemused

    Sorry, shouldn’t have capitalised those.

    Walking in the city the other day, I received pamphlets from socialist parties. They may or may not be registered. And then there are the communist idolisers. Some people look at the disdain towards the major parties. Others, like these lots, are disillusioned even with “loony” parties like the Greens.

  20. Tom the first and best@1040

    1025

    Allowing people to fly to Australia without a visa, by stopping fining airlines for flying people without visas or onward tickets, and thus claim refugee status at passport control without any prior visa is not abolishing visas. Nor did I actually advocate that (although it is a change I think should happen).

    I merely pointed out that is the policy anyone who wants, as their top priority, to stop people risking their lives in small boats to get to Australia needs to adopt to get that outcome.

    I personally oppose immigration control. All people should have equal rights to live in any jurisdiction they want to unless they are in prison, on parole, incapable of making the decision for themself or they needs quarantining.

    Get your Greens mates to run on those policies. I will enjoy watching their complete obliterations.

  21. Raaraa@1042

    bemused

    Sorry, shouldn’t have capitalised those.

    Walking in the city the other day, I received pamphlets from socialist parties. They may or may not be registered. And then there are the communist idolisers. Some people look at the disdain towards the major parties. Others, like these lots, are disillusioned even with “loony” parties like the Greens.

    They were probably one or another of the Trotskyist sects.

    They probably meet in a phone booth somewhere.

  22. Several Trotskyist groupuscules are able get themselves on the ballot whenever a federal election rolls around. The fact they get 0.001% of the vote every single goddamn time doesn’t appear to discourage them, bless their strident hearts.

    As for the person walking in the city being confronted by socialist pamphleteers, in Melbourne at least it was likely they were either Socialist Alternative or Socialist Alliance. Who, up until not so long ago, were in earnest and tortured discussions about a merger. The talks failed for reasons only the most zen of Marxist esoterics could begin to understand.

  23. So while Hockey is making attacks on Poor people, he’s hiding the real agenda:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tough-new-job-interview-rules-for-unemployed/story-fn59niix-1227026239488#mm-premium

    “The Weekend Australian has obtained a letter sent from the Employment Department’s deputy secretary Jennifer Taylor to job providers which outlines how the tough new rules will work, including the possibility that those who miss an appointment may not have their payments backpaid when they start attending appointments again.”

    Another budget saving measure :/

    It’s a pitty we cannot do the same to Politicians.

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