BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  2. Gladys Berejiklian’s beloved Opal card for sydney public transport proving to be a dud according to 10 news.
    Glady’s not available for comment of course when she is usually all over Sydney media.

  6. rua – The classic Swann clip in there of him dragging his ar$e up on the beach (looking stuffed) with his board.

    Looking at home, or what!

  7. To qualify this statement,

    I never agreed with the following:

    the genocide perpetrated by the Turks against the Armenians.
    nor the Crusaders against the so-called heathens.
    nor the ASIS/L against the Syrians.
    nor the Nazis against the Jews.
    nor the Romans against every fking body.
    et bloody cetera.

    Or any other shitty warfare that’s taken, or is taking, place where the resident population, at the time, is considered to be expendable.

    I don’t support the Israelis against those who refer to themselves as Palestinians.

    On the following grounds:

    1. Prior to 1967 and much later, my atlas always shewed Palestine, as coloured red (a Commonwealth country).

    2. And it referred to the country as Palestine (despite the ongoing argument about the name of the country).

    3. I was brainwashed in secondary school about a Jewish right to a homeland.

    4. And I agreed, because of the way Germany (Hitler et al Nazis) treated this religious group.

    5. It didn’t occur to me, at the time, that the displacement of a group of people, to cater for another group, was wrong.

    5. I was not taught about the original inhabitants of Palestinian, nor their rights.

    6. There’s a lot a water under the bridge since then, but I will not sit by while Israelis perpetrate on another people that which we deplored as genocide in their case (during WWII).

    7. As far as 18C goes, and while I didn’t think much of Carlton as a commentator, he shouldn’t have been put in a position of proffering his resignation (accepted) nor should the cartoonist (considering he was just making awkward fun of the fact that some Israelis had actually set up deck chairs to watch the outcome, from a distance, of the persecution, by indiscriminate bombing, of Palestinians).

    LAST BUT NOT LEAST.

    As far as I’m concerned, just as the CIA helped create Al Queda, and look how that turned out, so should Golda Meir’s Israel take responsibility for utilising the birth of Hamas for expedient political ends way back when.

    Political expediency has a habit of biting that hand that feeds it.

    Abbott should take heed (but he won’t). Hockey is now reaping the consequences.

  8. Ch 10 News goes with “grovelling” apology and many other negative terms – unpopular, humiliating, emotional, no support from his leader

  9. [Isn’t this one those mining companies that Abbott told us was going to the wall because of the MRRT and carbon price]

    It is a rich person / poor person thing. BHP and its executives are ‘going to the wall’ when the annual bonus payments aren’t enough to buy a new beachfront house. Poor poor obviously are losing their house in the middle of a suburb long ways from the beach when they are ‘going to the wall’.

  11. Zoomster ‘Badger”s Creek’ is actually ‘Badger Creek’. I was there yesterday and was making the same mistake until OH pointed out my error.

  13. [ sprocket_
    Posted Friday, August 15, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Ch 10 News goes with “grovelling” apology and many other negative terms – unpopular, humiliating, emotional, no support from his leader ]

    All sweet music and time to crack the first coldie of the week 🙂

    Heres to sloppy having and even worse week in the one to come – ICAC are looking at the North Sydney Forum stuff

  14. psyclaw

    I just had a call from my son. He has been retrenched from Telstra after 30 years. Apparently under an edict about getting rid of 20%. Ironic that they’ve just made huge profits. The Union say they can’t run an objection just because of management stupidity!

    He was given a bullshit assessment by what sounds like a toecutter who’s only been there for 5 years and never been involved in customer contacts. My son was in charge of the fibre optics network for outside broadcasts for (example) the Sydney Olympics.

    What a week!

  17. PeeBee and zoomster

    The King Parrots have been so accustomed to getting food at Healesville Sanctuary that they are accustomed to begging seed from people for miles around, and many people give in to them. Hold out a hand with sunflower seed and they’re your friends for life, unfortunately. They used to follow Ken from window to window around the house.

  18. 675

    If the ALP had stopping people risking their lives by seeking to come to Australia by boat as their top immigration priority, then they would have removing the massive fines ($10,000 per passenger) for airlines that fly people to Australia without a visa or an onward ticket as their policy. If those fines were removed then the people smuggling boat industry would disappear overnight on both cost and safety grounds.

    That is not ALP policy. ALP policy is to keep the fines. Therefore stopping the risk to lives is not the ALP`s top immigration policy. The ALP`s policy is to not let them in because they were not born in Australia and/or to Australians and they are poorer than almost all Australians.

  19. PeeBee

    born and bred there and always called it Badger’s… ah well, always learning.

    On that theme – there is a street locally called ‘William Street’. Every now and again, a new sign is put up calling it “Williams” and some poor shire bod is dispatched with a tub of white paint to blot out the ‘s’, at the behest of residents.

    The local planner was thus highly amused a few years ago when he discovered the street was originally gazetted as ‘Williams’.

  21. lizzie @ 764

    So sorry to hear that about your son.

    Some of these companies make me sick particularly when they are making huge profits.

  22. lizzie

    and it all started with my grandmother (seriously, it did…she began in the 1960s..)

    We had my two aunts out from Lithuania when Dad was dying. Didn’t speak a word of English. Their eyes lit up when they saw the parrots, so we showed them how to feed them.

    One of the aunts promptly grasped an indignant bird in her hands. We had an awful job explaining to her that that just wasn’t done.

  23. I saw zoomster’s point earlier today in the discussion where she insists that the current trend points to the Greens votes going downwards.

    However, this seems to contrast with her position in a discussion we had weeks ago.

    I provided a graph to show that there is a downward overall trend over the last 3 decades that the total votes equating major parties (Labor + Coalition) is on a downward trend, and that total votes for minor parties are on an upward trend.

    However, she dismissed them as simply being historical trend and how future results are unpredictable.

    Now she is really sure that the Greens vote will go in a downward trend towards the future without any evidence other than to show that the performance now is lower than that of the peak in 2010 (based on data only over 4 years).

    So which is it? Is future trend reliable or not based on historical data?

    You cannot dismiss the above point in the previous argument if you’re going to use it to support another argument.

  24. Dee

    Having a wattle bird feed out of your hand is well worth mentioning. They’re not usually into fake domesticity.

    King Parrots, on the other hand, who are willing to hand-feed, are a dime a dozen.

  25. I once had a King Parrot pitch on my hand when I offered a mixture of seeds in my palm. He flicked everything except the sunflower seeds on to the ground and then pecked me in annoyance when there were no more left.

    One joke among birdwatchers was an innocent who wrote to us that she had seen King Parrots AND Queen Parrots (the females).

  27. Lizzie
    Well you really didn’t need that extra bit of mum worry did you.

    Fingers crossed for your kid.

    One of my kids (40) moved in with us at the moment after second bout of pulmonary emboli. They’re a worry to we retirees!

  28. [Ch 10 News goes with “grovelling” apology and many other negative terms – unpopular, humiliating, emotional, no support from his leader]

    OK Hockey has been destroyed so it’s time to focus on the cabinet as it is that collective who OWN these stinking budget papers. Abbott’s fingerprints are all over the documents so he needs to be held to account. Shorten must now take the lead and attack the head of this poisonous group.

  29. psyclaw

    He’s 44, but after a divorce still has a big mortgage. All I can do is tell him that he can always come home if life goes belly up.

  30. Just Me@749

    726
    guytaur

    I am for fixing the ABC not giving Murdoch his wish of no ABC.


    I suspect Murdoch’s wish is to get the ABC killed, and as a bonus pick up a swag of cheap ABC property, and some compliant mortgage-encumbered ABC journos to gain some superficial short-term credibility.

    Probably right and your post makes much more sense than those of the moronic reflexive ABC bashers.

    If you and others want to do something constructive about it, go to this site: https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/media/ipa-abc-report/help-protect-ourabc-from-vested-interests-and-the-ipa?t=dXNlcmlkPTc1NjIwOCxlbWFpbGlkPTUzOTE=

  31. But in an embarrassing rebuke for the Treasurer, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said on Friday that “Well plainly, I wouldn’t say that” before adding the Treasurer had his full support.

    Joe must be worried.

  32. guytaur

    From Keane. I disagree with Abbott’s “magnificence”.

    [Hockey’s latest Incredible Self-Sabotaging Treasurer act has come at a point where the government appeared to be righting itself, courtesy of Tony Abbott’s capable performance in response to MH17. Abbott, unexpectedly, appears on safer ground internationally than domestically; his decision to spend the week visiting the Netherlands and having a whistle-stop tour of the Middle East was politically sensible given that’s where his strength currently is. But he can’t keep the focus international forever. The domestic priority has to be to find a way to reframe the budget argument away from fairness. In opposition, Abbott was brilliant at reframing debate around Labor’s policies in terms that suited him. Now he’s a victim of exactly the same thing.]

  33. [Abbott’s fingerprints are all over the documents so he needs to be held to account.]

    Abbott said wtte that he was proud of the Budget he and Sloppy Joe delivered. The problem is, for Joe, is it is an Abbott budget with the PM sitting in on all decisions. (Costello would have resigned before he allowed Howard to do the same).

    Joe has to sell the shit sandwich, my guess is he will eventually decide he does not need politics.

  36. [Abbott was magnificent. He was magnificent in getting the MSM behind him all the way]

    to be fair he got quite a few of those people that vote on election day behind him too

  37. JM

    [I suspect Murdoch’s wish is to get the ABC killed,]
    Way more likely than a “suspected” motive. James Murdoch attacked the BBC and his peeve list with the BBC would largely be applicable to the ABC and why he wants “death” to both.

    [“The expansion of state-sponsored journalism is a threat to the plurality and independence of news provision,” he told the Edinburgh Television Festival.

    The scope of the BBC’s activities and ambitions was “chilling”, he added………….. Mr Murdoch said free news on the web provided by the BBC made it “incredibly difficult” for private news organisations to ask people to pay for their news.

    “It is essential for the future of independent digital journalism that a fair price can be charged for news to people who value it,” he said.

    News Corporation has said it will start charging online customers for news content across all its websites.]
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8227915.stm

  41. [WWP
    Must have been. He wouldn’t be such a selfish knob!

    Would he?]

    there is stupid and there is very very stupid … but that is not be able to tie up your own shoe laces dumb.

  42. [@Colvinius: Anyone know if this Ch9 screengrab going viral is genuine? & whether that actually is Joe’s car on the Disabled spot? http://t.co/1szxPXB5wD%5D

    Of course i forgot that most disabled people are poor (well in Joes mind anyway) and poor people don’t drive, therefore noone to use the bay!

  43. @guytaur/790

    Whether real or not, it’s not the first time, an LNP has done so, Andrew Laming MP has done it number of times.

  46. lizzie

    [He flicked everything except the sunflower seeds on to the ground and then pecked me in annoyance when there were no more left.]

    Sunflower-seed addicts extraordinaire, are king parrots.

    Love the buggers, though.

    When I moved to Motown, they’re what I missed most.

  47. The phrase ‘has our full support’, whatever the role, corporation, government or sporting, is just a shorthand for ‘we didn’t have quite enough time to line our knives up with their back’.

    I actually feel sorry for Hockey, I think the Liberal Party is casting about for blame at the moment after some truly horrible polling. Hockey just happened to make a silly comment at the worst possible time. It just as easily could have been Bishop, Pyne, Morrison or Johnson.

  48. BK

    Keep a chunder bucket within reach. I can see quite a number of PM appearances “comforting the grieving family” as passengers are returned to Australia.

  49. [787
    poroti

    >I suspect Murdoch’s wish is to get the ABC killed,

    Way more likely than a “suspected” motive. James Murdoch attacked the BBC and his peeve list with the BBC would largely be applicable to the ABC and why he wants “death” to both.]

    I am practising understatement. 🙂

    And James Murdoch’s speech could only come from a privileged pointless arsehat.

  50. The Disabled Parking video is an example of why Hockey is political roadkill. It does not matter what he says or does, nobody will listen. The buyers have decided the salesman is a bit suss. It will never change.

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