Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 7 of 16
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  1. PUP Senators just voted to a debate without information from a committee on legislation. What happened to all that we need time to assess?

  2. Yes I did, Psyclaw. Was waiting for your reappearance.

    Crikey Whitey

    God you owe me big time!

    Grovel. Sure do!!

    Sorry. How gruelling, enduring Abetz again! But I knew you were strong!

  3. guytaur

    [PUP Senators just voted to a debate without information from a committee on legislation. What happened to all that we need time to assess?]

    Told ya Clive couldn’t be trusted as far as you could kick him.

    All bluster, all bullshit. All in it for himself. I give you Clive.

  4. There is no way I could be a pollie in parliament. To have to sit stumm while the opposite party lectures and tells absolute lies in spite of facts and figures published in various outlets… It would drive me maaaaaad.

    Today in the car I heard a Senator preaching about how timber felling in Tassie was sustainable now because it was in the nineties. Then a Labor Senator gave chapter and verse about the costs of the pre-payment and its unlikely aid to the Budget, followed by a Lib who insisted the opposite.

    I’d have to walk out. Couldn’t stand the sheer ignorance and distortion.

  6. [298
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
    Senate divided to suspend standing orders: ayes – 34; noes – 31 AGREED TO

    Only 65 votes, did some not make the chamber?
    ]

    I have been thinking that a number of the Indie/PUP Senators might feel the need for urgent ablutions when a vote is up. Reducing the 38 ALP need to block a vote by getting lost, perhaps in the prayer room, after grandstanding to the contrary.

  7. Just because they voted to debate it does not mean they will vote for it. It would be an easy way to keep Abbott dangling a bit longer.

  8. GG @ 285

    Your point is well made – so or later they will need to start having to sticky tape it up somehow so that they can maintain a semblance of something – not sure what. Can’t see any appetite for a DD – especially as the polls are parlous. The political effect is that they will seem ineffective.

  10. Lizzie

    You are so right.

    You would have to check your brain at the door or possess a much greater tolerance of bullshit than I have ever had.

  11. [@naomiwoodley: The Govt had the support of PUP, plus Senators Muir, Day and Leyonhjelm to successfully suspend standing orders. They’ll resume at 1930.]

    X in the dunny?

  12. BBS,

    If the Libs went to an election now they would be slaughtered. To avoid that they’ll back off when they absolutely have to. The time for backing off will be shortly after the rhetoric heats to such an extreme that everyone will despair at their being no solution.

    It’s all a negotiating game.

  13. Ah I see what is happening.

    The Senate is debating the need to suspend standing orders, after the motion was agreed to.

    After they have had a dinner break, 7.30. They will be back to vote on the actual motion. which is.

    [I move––That—
    (a) the orders of the day for the second reading of the following bills be called on immediately, may be taken together through their remaining stages and have precedence over all government business until determined:
    Clean Energy Legislation (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    True-up Shortfall Levy (General) (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    True-up Shortfall Levy (Excise) (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Customs Tariff Amendment (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Excise Tariff Amendment (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gas (Import Levy)
    Amendment (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gas (Import Levy)
    (Transitional Provisions) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gas (Manufacture Levy)
    Amendment (Carbon Tax Repeal) Bill 2013 No. 2
    Clean Energy (Income Tax Rates and Other Amendments) Bill 2013 No. 2
    (b) that standing orders 120(3) and 122(1) and (2) not apply to the
    consideration of the bills listed in paragraph (a); and
    (c) that immediately after the bills listed in paragraph (a) have been
    finally determined, the Climate Change Authority (Abolition) Bill
    2013 No. 2 be called on immediately and considered through all
    stages until determined. ]

  14. Zoidlord – they would need to build up a much better case than they have to date. A DD could also unleash even more havoc in the senate. In 1975 especially, we were essentially a two party state so the outcome was going to be cut and dried.

    In 1987, the DD probably saved the Democrats from oblivion but they were the only third party.

    Now trying to predict a DD result would be like predicting lotto numbers – very fanciful.

  15. “@anusha_srini: @ABCNews24 Even as a vegetarian I think the phrase “processed at sea” should be limited to seafood- not ppl!!”

  16. Poroti. I posted this yesterday.

    Poroti et al.

    The present Duchess of Argyll is a Cadbury by birth.

    http://www.inveraray-castle.com/clan-campbell-introduction.html

    On 8 June 2002 at St. Mary’s Church, Fairford, Gloucestershire, he (the Duke Torquhil Ian Campbell) married Eleanor M. Cadbury (born London, 26 January 1973), a scion of the Cadbury chocolate family, whose father Peter Hugh George Cadbury was Chairman of Close Brothers Corporate Finance,[3] and wife (1969) Sally Strouvelle.[4] Together they have three children.

    A doco on the Argylls claimed that the Duke is the custodian and ambassador for Chivas Regal and the sole person in the world to know the whisky blend.

    The doco showed the Duke with a jewel encrusted bottle (see piccy of (black) bottle in smh article) made of the FINEST NEW ZEALAND WHITE PORCELAIN.

    http://www.nzcc.co.nz/

    http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/top-drop/meet-the-200000-bottle-of-scotch-20130328-2gvpg.html

  17. Might be worth watching tonight

    [@SabraLane: On @abc730 tonight: Sen Jacqui Lambie on her first day, and Climate Change Authority Chairman Bernie Fraser.]

  18. [There is no way I could be a pollie in parliament. To have to sit stumm while the opposite party lectures and tells absolute lies in spite of facts and figures published in various outlets… It would drive me maaaaaad. ]

    Seems to me the more bolshie and outrageous you are, the better you fare. The number of MPs who are softly spoken, calm and methodical seem to be diminishing by the year.

  19. GG@312

    I don’t disagree at all – not sure if Abbott does compromise. Thats when he might just get rolled if the cabinet decide on someone more amenable so they get something out of this term of government.

    Though if they get nothing, the country will not be worse off.

  20. [“@anusha_srini: @ABCNews24 Even as a vegetarian I think the phrase “processed at sea” should be limited to seafood- not ppl!!”]
    Reminds me of the old John West TV ads.

  23. Whatever one’s perspective I think we can all agree: 4 perfunctory questions in the middle of the ocean is not ‘processing’.

    We can safely stick that crap in the bin.

    Whatever else happened: no asylum claims were ‘processed’ in this transfer.

  25. [(a) the orders of the day for the second reading of the following bills be called on immediately, may be taken together through their remaining stages and have precedence over all government business until determined:]

    The ‘taken together’ through all stages is interesting, as PUP has said he will move amendments to several of the package ( which I assume GRN/ALP will support).

    So some bills will pass, the Carbon Tax repeal ones) whilst others go back to the House. There, they will either atrophy, or be returned in 3 months time as potential DD triggers.

  27. [Whatever one’s perspective I think we can all agree: 4 perfunctory questions in the middle of the ocean is not ‘processing’.]

    Agreed. That isn’t good if that’s what happened.

  28. The good thing about the lateness of the vote is that snail broadcasting MSM is still running Abbott’s first defeat in new senate

  29. [… may be taken together through their remaining stages…]

    What the feck does this mean, they may? Or the may not. Surely the word is will. Why fudge?

  31. poroti:

    How did you get the animation to zoom in?

    And while I had your zoomed in option I checked out Neoguri. Seriously WOW! That’s a really intense baby.

  32. The Associated Press ‏@AP 3m
    BREAKING: Spokeswoman: Eduard Shevardnadze, first president of Georgia, dies at 86.

  33. Dalai Lama to Myanmar, Sri Lanka Buddhists: Stop violence against Muslims

    In Sri Lanka last month, four people were killed in nights of religious violence in which Buddhist mobs attacked Muslim neighborhoods around the southwest town of Aluthgama.

    Witnesses told CNN the rioting began after a rally organized by the far-right Bodu Bala Sena (Buddhist Power Force) group, at which the group’s leader, a monk, gave an inflammatory speech against Muslims.]

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/world/asia/dalai-lama-muslim-violence/index.html

    I guess Abbott missed it?

  37. Ooo this is who Abbott sans refoulement is sending Sri Lankans to.

    [The Criminal Investigation Department (known as CID) of the Sri Lanka Police Service is responsible for carrying out investigations throughout the island into serious crimes, including murders, rape and organized crime cases of a very serious nature that require special skills and complex detection. At times the CID carries out investigations pertaining to national security.

    The CID has the power to arrest any person from anywhere in Sri Lanka without getting approval from any Range DIG. It was located on the 4th floor of the new Secretariat Building, Fort, Colombo and hence the use of notorious, euphemistic phrase “4th floor” (indicating, torture) among Sri Lankans.]

    CID = Torture, did you miss this bit Abbott?

  38. poroti:

    Don’t have a mouse, but can use the keypad to move around the visual. I had no idea you could zoom in and out. I’ll have to keep playing.

  39. Didn’t Abbott’s new BFF Stephen Harper boycott CHOGM because Sri Lanka was hosting and his govt had concerns about Sri Lanka’s human rights record?

  40. [THE High Court has granted an interim injunction to prevent 153 asylum-seekers being returned to the Sri Lankan military by the Australian Navy.

    In an urgent hearing in Sydney this evening after an application by refugee advocates, Justice Susan Crennan granted an interim injunction that would stop the Australian Navy returning the Sri Lankan asylum-seekers, who have claimed to be minority Tamils, being handed over to the “Sri Lankan government, its military or its agents.”

    Asylum-seekers face criminal probe

    Acting on behalf of refugee advocates and the Tamil association, solicitor George Newhouse has sought to protect a boat of 153 people claiming to be Tamil refugees who made contact with Australian authorities after leaving Pondicherry in southern India late last month.

    The order sought to protect 48 people who are named while a further 105 unnamed asylum-seekers who are also claiming to be Tamil refugees,

    Justice Crennan’s interim injunction on the asylum-seekers will stay in place until 4pm tomorrow, with the matter set to be heard in the High Court tomorrow afternoon.

    Acting on behalf of asylum-seekers, barrister Ron Merkell compared the case to the Tampa boat crisis, saying: “The Tampa case raised a slightly similar” although “different question”

    about the constitutionality of parts of the migration act that could

    allow returns of asylum-seekers.

    “This is a clear case where the commonwealth should not be able to risk the lives of those on the boat … simply because they were unable to make a claim.”]

  44. poroti:

    Of course, just as you do with any webpage!

    Not sure why that didn’t occur to me. Thanks!! 🙂

  45. sprocket_

    High Court

    Hopefully the HC will rule the “Operational Matters” illegal as it prevents scrutiny ( by Parliament & the HC ) of possible illegal actions by the Government while not in a national security situation & not at war.

  46. Second only to an Israeli airstrike on the BBC page is this set of headlines.

    [Australia admits returning migrants

    Report details fatal PNG camp attack

    Australia navy captains disciplined

    Will asylum policy cost Abbott dear?

    Why boat people risk it all ]

  47. I liked the story George Shultz told how, at Reykjavik, Eduard Shevardnadze confided in him that the Soviets were leaving Afghanistan but weren’t in a position to announce it so the two of them would need to have a pretend disagreement about the Soviet presence there.

  49. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 7:39 pm | PERMALINK
    THE High Court has granted an interim injunction to prevent 153 asylum-seekers being returned to the Sri Lankan military by the Australian Navy.]

    This presumably means that the government will have to publicly disclose (a) that the 153 asylum seekers actually exist and (b) what the government is doing with them.

  50. poroti

    Earth Map

    If you click on the “Earth” title bottom left it opens a whole other set of options … amazing data … one for the Science Sceptics like Tony… a process that produces the science & rigour from measuring the data to inventing the computer used to view it .. all by humans & no god in sight.

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