Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  2. From Last Thread:

    Deb

    [he looks at the role of Eisenhour in the unfolding crisis of 1956…and Eisenhour emerges as a rather commendable figure,by his honesty and restraint]

    Eisenhower was then a) facing an election; and b) Not well.

    He seems to have realised around then that he’d ‘empowered’ US Weapon builders / Govt ‘Intelligence’ agencies somewhat too much.

    The last thing he needed was the British, French and Israelis doing ‘stuff’ together.

    After all ‘the USA was supposed to have conquered the World’ at the end of WW2. (Subsequent events have shown differently – Korea a ‘draw’, Vietnam a loss, and since a lot of shooting at people without much effect.)

    Paid back by the non-participation of the British in V.2 of Vietnam.

    Truman springs to mind – his decisions re’ beating the Russians to Tokyo set the scene for a lot of stuff that lasted for 50 years.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin shows us how inappropriate cost accounting practices can lean an industry into a death spiral.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-death-spiral-scaring-electricity-providers-20140706-zsy76.html
    This is an interesting proposal on PPL that might flush Abbot out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hecsstyle-loan-flagged-as-an-alternative-to-paid-parental-leave-scheme-20140706-3bgjc.html
    An op-ed from Joseph Stiglitz imploring us not to follow the US down the inequality trail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/inequality-why-australia-must-not-follow-the-us-20140706-zsxtk.html
    Let’s see if NSW has the balls to strike them out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/three-strikes-for-more-than-100-pubs-and-clubs-20140706-zsy34.html
    How health care co-payments will hurt – new study.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pensioners-hurt-most-by-fees-researchers-20140706-3bgli.html
    Mark Kenny reckons the government’s celebrations after the repeal of the carbon tax will be quite short.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-set-to-improve-for-coalition–briefly-20140706-3bgjb.html
    SH-Y will move in the Senate today to condemn the Dishonourable Scott Morrison’s latest Tamil AS antics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tamils-to-be-returned-after-australia-accuses-sri-lanka-of-torture-20140706-zsy1y.html
    Can-Do’s scintillating form continues.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/06/poll-suggests-campbell-newman-could-lose
    I don’t care who might be in power this stuff must be stamped out. It is just so blatant and insidious.
    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/hells-angels-trucking-companies-ripping-off-millions-in-fuel-rebates-20140706-zswax.html
    How Centrelink has been and will increasingly fail the disabled.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/centrelink-is-designed-to-fail-the-most-vulnerable-20140706-zsuvj.html

  4. Section 2 . . .

    An examination of Rolf Harris’s motives.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/06/we-know-what-rolf-harris-did-we-dont-know-why
    Sexual abuse survivors deride the Vatican’s reticence to hand over documents.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/06/abuse-survivors-deride-vatican-for-not-handing-over-all-documents
    The Conversation examines Operation Sovereign borders and how it sabotages democracy.
    https://theconversation.com/operation-sovereign-borders-28831
    Abbott’s white armband view of history.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-white-armband-view-of-history,6645
    Detailed planning rather than slogans is needed for transport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/detailed-planning-not-slogans-needed-to-cure-transport-paralysis-20140706-zsxtt.html
    Greg Hunt wants the new Senate not to destroy Direct Action. Unfortunately for him the policy destroys itself.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/06/greg-hunt-australia-must-have-emissions-reduction
    The answer is simple – just disallow any form of religious instruction in schools. Interestingly there are quotes about children of a “particular faith”. If that is the case they surely must have already received instruction.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/jewish-group-fears-new-religious-instruction-rules-threaten-diversity-in-schools-20140706-zsvzv.html
    A strange article in the AFR on the derivation of use and enjoyment of art acquired for self managed superannuation funds.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/super_fund_art_works_are_not_there_14dCGpL6j4B5Ioevht5bxJ

  5. Section 3 . . .

    Will Cormann find some way to nobble this call for action on Macquarie Bank?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/eyes-on-macquarie-after-senate-snub-20140706-3bgel.html
    Ron Tandberg nails Liberal backbench concern over dear leader.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    (There are no other new cartoons up on Fairfax websites this morning).
    David Rowe brings Abbott’s spin doctor throng to his hospital bedside.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  7. And from the Land of the Free –

    FoxNews on its religious high horse.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/06/fox-noise-champions-blessed-proselytizing-kentucky-bank-tellerblessed/
    Rick Perry has a conspiracy rant and gets cut off by the ABC interviewer.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/abc-cuts-perry-during-obama-conspiracy
    Stephanie Miller smacks down a Republican woman.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/stephanie-miller-smacks-down-fiorina-your
    FoxNews – the workers’ friend.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/fox-talker-calls-workers-fascist-parasites
    The SCOTUS has become dangerous.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/06/1311038/-Hobby-Lobby-SCOTUS-reserves-right-to-establish-state-religion-of-its-choice
    Another week of gun fails.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/03/1308834/-Show-me-the-long-form-concealed-carry-permit-WND-s-birther-in-chief-Joseph-Farah-makes-GunFAIL-LXXV
    Religious activists and our right to die.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/06/religious-activists-have-too-much-say-over-our-right-to-die/

  8. Tones says Australia was ‘unsettled’ before the British arrived.

    Mabo gave terra nullius the flick.

    So it’s onto terra unsettleus.

  12. Clive Palmer in the AFR on the FOFA changes:

    “[The Government] can stick it up their arse and you can quote me on that. How can you have advisers not acting in people’s best interests.”

    I guess that’s tolerably clear. By-by FOFA.

  14. BK

    Re not following the US path. There was an article in the NZ Herald recently with a message to NZ Labor that is very relevant in these days of Abbott government. NZ Labor should remember and use the word NZ’s longest serving PM Seddon used to justify his drive for equality. A drive that saw things like women’s suffrage, aged pensions, Conciliation and Arbitration Act to deal with industrial disputes, and universal primary school education. The word being “Fairness”. Simple and hard to argue against.

    …………Oh and Seddon came over to NZ from Victoria in the 1860’s.

  19. “@annajhenderson: 1/2 Spokesman for new Senator Ricky Muir says the crossbencher has “serious concerns” about GP Co-payment, dole and tertiary reform #auspol”

  20. “@annajhenderson: 2/2 Spokesman for Ricky Muir won’t confirm how he’ll vote on carbon tax repeal but says he doesn’t think the govt has “much to worry about””

  22. “All persons intercepted and returned were subjected to an enhanced screening process” say Morrison. Remind you of “enhanced interrogation techniques”?

  24. [ @GordonGraham: Abbott’s performance ratings from the quarterly Newspoll today. I call this graphic “deep alienation” http://t.co/fa7HGh2Td5 ]

    No doubt Abbott will go to his political grave still wondering why the electorate turned so sour on him so quickly.

    He seems to be too stupid to realize that “axe the tax” and “stop the boats” may be enough of a policy platform for an ignorant loudmouth bully of an opposition leader faced with an unelectable opponent, but that we have a right to expect more from our prime ministers.

    He has had a year to learn something new, but sadly he seems happy to remain a “one trick pony”.

  26. 35-49yo age group looks like its changing the most. Libs have lost a quarter of their election primary of 45.5%, now on 34.

    Slightly more than half of their lost middle age voters going to the left, the rest to others, where they are presumably still making up their mind.

  27. @CliveFPalmer: Looking forward to addressing @PressClubAust today at 1230pm as our @PalmerUtdParty senators take their place in new Senate #auspol #npc

  28. That Newspoll quarterly is interesting.
    Since the election about a million voters, 8.6%, have switched from the COALition to the alternatives, with ‘Others” [probably mainly PUP] gaining 2.6%, the ALP 2.7% and the Greens the biggest winners with a gain of 3.3%.

    So only about 1/3rd of the COALition loss has gone to the ALP.

  29. Crikey Whitey

    God you owe me big time 🙂

    I had to endure Abetz again as I rechecked the Fraser tweet on Insiders.

    It ended “in the 1930s”.

    I took this to mean that in the period before the Nazis actually started killing Jews en masse, blind Freddy could see that to hand over Jews to Nazis put them into grave danger.

    So in the current circumstances, blind Freddy can see that despite the war having ended and the overt and widespread killing of Tamils may have stopped (this is the Abbotteers claim) to send Tamils back is to still expose them to grave danger.

    In other words, despite anyone with half a brain knowing of the risk of danger to Tamils if sent home notwithstanding that the war is over, the Abbotteers can’t (won’t!) see this.

    BTW throughout the interview by FKelly, Abetz had the strangest facial expressions ….. stress I suspect. Their inner conflict is becoming palpable.

    They know their policies are shite, they know that most of the electorate know their policies are shite, but they have put all their eggs into one basket (case), ie Abbott.

  30. 16 guytaur

    As much as I agree with your statement, I’m not sure if Hitler would have taken them back. Wasn’t it at the beginning that he wants the Jews to emigrate to other countries, and only later, as part of the “final solution”, he went on to sent the remaining Jews to their deaths? Correct me if I’m wrong….

  31. Raaraa

    I will leave it to our resident war historians to answer your questions in detail. I think he would gave to have more to kill but could be wrong.

  32. [So only about 1/3rd of the COALition loss has gone to the ALP.]

    They weren’t the sharpest tools in the shed or they wouldn’t have voted for The Hon T Abbott in the first place.

  33. 26 bug1

    I would think that age bracket is most affect by the budget. The next group (18-34) that would be next affected don’t already have a high Coalition voting base to work with so would be affected less?

  34. psyclaw

    There was definitely a moment in Abetz’ interview when he was completely lost for words. This surely indicates that Libs advisors aren’t able to see things from every point of view therefore haven’t thought up their weaselly answers.

  35. Guytaur n Bug1

    I think the 50+ demographic is significant. They have always been strongly pro Abbott and he’s lost them according to @GordonGraham.

    Since pretty well all age groups are displeased, there is now no specific target group for Abbott to focus on, and bribe. He’s got to turn every group around and the only way he can do this is by major policy change across the board.

    I doubt he’s capable of it.

  36. Re Fredex @28. Interesting. It might mean that most of those changed votes come back to the ALP as preferences – if we include 80% of Greens and 45% of ‘others’, then about 6.2%.

    On the other hand, many or most of those who changed may be Liberal voters who can’t bring themselves to nominate Labor. They selected PUP/others or even Green. What proportion of those will go back?

  37. “@KJBar: Ray Hadley queried with Scott Morrison whether the dog on the #asylum boat was being persecuted: “was it Tamil or Sinhalese?” #2GB”

  38. fredex

    [So only about 1/3rd of the COALition loss has gone to the ALP.]

    I am not really surprised at that I get the impression that voters are sick to death of the lot of them and they are prepared to go to PUP and others.

  39. fredex

    not a surprise. Having just turfed Labor out with a resounding vote against them, you wouldn’t expect Labor to be the first port of call for dissatisfied voters.

    If anything, I’ve been surprised at how much Labor HAS picked up on primaries.

    You’d expect that – at least for the next year or so – disillusioned voters will continue to flirt with minor parties.

    How much they come back to Labor (on primaries; Labor is sitting very pretty on 2PP, so how much the primary vote matters is a bit moot anyway) depends on how crucial the next election ‘feels’ to voters.

    If it goes the way it is at the moment – that voters feel the government must go – they won’t ‘waste’ their vote on minor parties.

    (Conversely, in elections where governments are on the nose, more minors and indies contest…)

  41. Raaraa

    A few months before the war a passenger ship of ,mainly German, Jews was turned away and forced to return to Europe by , Canada ,Cuba and the US. It became known as The Voyage of the Damned.

  42. Steve777

    Yeah, I’m wondering if we can presume that preferences from Greens and others will flow to ALP/COAL as they did at the election given that the 8.6% [net] who have switched have come from the COALition.

    Presumably there would be a lower percentage of preferences going from Greens to ALP than at the election.
    Dog knows with ‘others’.

    Its been noted that Morgan and Nielsen are getting significantly different results from ‘preferences allocated by respondents’ as compared to ‘preferences allocated from last election’.
    But .. that seems, paradoxically, to reinforce the preference flow to the ALP.

    Volatile situation.

  43. Very Limited News reports that the everything refugee is really peachy good, or labors fault. There was this one refugee but apparently being tortured at home was better than being tortured on Manus. Boy am I proud to be an Aussie.

  45. Eventually there will come a “tipping point” when Morrison’s policies will no longer be tolerated by a majority. This happened with Howard. But first Labor have to show that they are different and at present people aren’t believing that.

  46. “@danielhurstbne: It’s Parry vs Ludlam in the ballot for Senate president. One wag is heard to quip about the voting procedure: “Optional preferential””

  50. “@justinbarbour: RT @KateLundy: In the Labor Senate team, there are more women than men for the first time 🙂 @EMILYsListAus #proudtobepartoftheteam”

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