A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 1900 respondents, “Conducted for The Sunday Mail and Channel 7”, has the Liberal National Party with a primary vote lead of 38.7% to 34.4%, which narrows to 51-49 on two-party preferred. The Palmer United vote continues to surge, out in this poll to 15.4%. A two-party preferred figure is provided, but in a situation where a new party has come along and seized nearly one vote in six, this is a highly speculative exercise. The result given is 51-49 in favour of the LNP, perhaps at the generous end of what might be expected for Labor from the primary vote numbers provided. The Sunday Mail report says Campbell Newman has a combined poor and very poor rating of 53.1%, but no other leadership numbers are provided (and also no primary vote for the Greens).
Sinking like the titanic.
Basically confirms what Newspoll was suggesting with its 51-49 result – the situation could go either way and Palmer may well pick up a few seats if his vote concentrates enough.
Either way, the flow of Palmer’s preferences will be vital – will be interesting to see how his how-to-votes look.
The most likely outcome in next year’s Queensland state election is a modest to moderate LNP majority with the current Premier, Campbell Newman, losing his seat in Ashgrove (unless he is transferred to a safer seat).
This will result in the LNP choosing an even more Conservative premier (possibly from the “National” faction of the LNP, which is logical as most of the seats lost will be “Liberal” ones in urban Brisbane), and a regime closer to the Bjelke-Petersen era.
I just wanted to give you the lowdown before the lefties here gloat and clap.
Totally unrelated comment. No pressure but when will you finish your PhD? You’ve been a doctoral candidate for as long as I’ve been following you!
In 5-10 years, Queensland will resemble the affluent white suburbs of Johannesburg or Pretoria in the pre-Mandela era, without the ethnic diversity or unrest. It’s fine if you’re happy living in that environment.
Soyaking: as a gloating lefty I agree with you. Although a rampant LNP govt in Queensland will make Tony’s job in 2016 a little more difficult. Aussies IMHO prefer a bob each way and they would have had a glimpse of what a second term Abbott govt might look like.
The Stafford by-election will be a pointer but I suspect Newman will lose Ashgrove. I live in the electorate and what I hear in shops and around the neighbourhood is far from complimentary to the bellicose pipsqueak. There is still bitterness about the public service pogrom launched by the LNP and people are put off by his highly obnoxious style. If Labor can get former member Kate Jones to run again and the Greens vote holds up, then Tony Abbott will be finding a plum job for his little mate after next year’s election. There’s always the ABC Board, now that its to be packed with coalition toadies, but High Commissioner to Sri Lanka would be most suitable. Newman would be sure to get along with the thugs that run the place.
The LNP will probably lose the Stafford by-election, but they still have a huge majority for the time being and Dr Lynham would have to do very well if he was to hold on next year – he may well have to go back to the operating theatre.
It will be interesting to see how many candidates the PUP will be able to field next year – especially as they are unable to stump up for the Stafford by-election.
2.4% said they had never heard of Newman!!
swamprat@10
I doubt most of those were sincere.
The LNP are really bogged down, they’ve been stuck at around 51-52 for months now. They’d still win on these numbers but the problem is Newman’s own seat. They’re not likely to get him back if the statewide 2PP is only 51 or 52. He seems to be a big part of their problem so some of them must be starting to think about what they can do if things don’t improve.
Really, if you can’t find a safe seat for your Premier how the hell can you be expected to run a government? It’s farcical.
Did they actually run a goverment though Kevin?
Or a protection racket for companies? (after changing CMC rules)?
Full ReachTel results.
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-sunday-mail-queensland-the-state-were-in-2014-crimeandsafety
For his own sake, I hope Palmer has chosen some half-decent candidates for this election. If PUP continues with its often… questionable preselection choices, and still wins a reasonable swath of seats regardless, their new QLD partyroom may prove to be Clive’s worst nightmare. This has all the makings of an almighty One Nation style clusterfuck.
Pencil in Peter Wellington to be the PUP candidate for Nicklin.
Was hoping for some interesting late night reading, Ghostwhovotes comes through again.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/440/554/7e3eae98-0511-11e4-8925-d178e556312f..pdf
I am sure that there will be many LNP MPs happy to see the back of their illustrious leader. It seems likely that the LNP will still win, but with Newman gone, those members still in Parliament will feel like the boil has been lanced, and they will believe that most of the angst against their government will dissipate.
So they will not want Newman to “parachute” to a safer seat – in fact I will keep track of those most loudly urging him to “stay the course” and “fight the good fight” from Ashgrove. These apparent “boosters” would be the ones who in another ancient era would have seen the Ides of March as a good day for a leadership “challenge”.
The widespread reporting of 40 likely LNP seat losses from this poll is rubbish. Those making this projection are just counting off the pendulum without taking into account that in some cases the margin is LNP vs KAP in seats where Labor only polled 10-20% last time. They’re also ignoring sophomore effect. Low 30s is more likely for a 51-49ish to LNP 2PP (which could still mean loss of majority.)
@ Kevin 18
Agreed. I think Labor will have to start pulling 52s and 53s consistently in state polling to be a good shot at a return to government.
KB 18 – also that sort of media interpretation might be OK in the states where there is not optional preferential voting. Labor’s “Just Vote 1” campaign when they were in office may have helped dissuade people from preferencing at all, especially KAP and PUP voters. I suppose this may help Labor in some seats, but overall I think the LNP’s benefit from OPV increases with each “non-preferencer” so I find it very hard to see them losing office.
#18 was the condensed version; here’s the article:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/queensland-polling-careful-with-that.html
Careful With That Pendulum, Eugene
I am not even sure now that 30 LNP seats would fall on these numbers. Probably about that many though.
I personally am not paying much attention to people saying that the LNP is a sure thing to be returned to office. The fact of the matter is their support is in irreversible decline…. the reason they won was because of Newman and the reason they will lose is because of Newman. They are headed for disaster at the next election. i dont think it will even be held next year, Newman will cut his losses and call it within the next few months.