Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. psyclaw @ 29
    [but they have put all their eggs into one basket (case), ie Abbott]

    The problem is that they don’t really have a credible alternative. Most of the them are as ideologically driven as Abbott so changing leaders would be like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

    Turnbull is about all they’ve got, but they wouldn’t be able to stomach his views on climate change, etc, although they might turn to him out of sheer panic a year out from the next election. Hockey? Lost a lot of trust with his unfair budget. Morrison? He’s increasingly on the nose with his treatment of asylum seekers and the ‘on water’ no comment BS. Bishop the Younger? Lightweight. Pyne? God help us! After that there’s hardly anyone with enough recognition in the electorate.

  4. No wonder Hunt looks so stressed when he speaks. He’s straddling a barbed-wire fence.

    [Environment groups also back the proposal and the expert reference panel for the government’s emissions reduction fund recommended international permits as insurance should Direct Action fail to meet the 5 per cent target.

    It is understood Mr Hunt privately supports their use, as do a number of other government frontbenchers. But one party source said that Mr Abbott remained the key stumbling block to a change in policy and a backflip on permits would struggle to find support in the party room.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/buying-carbon-permits-would-be-cheaper-than-direct-action-policy-tony-abbott-told-20140706-3bgj9.html#ixzz36jsk0VQc

  5. fedex@28
    On ALP gaining 2.7% and greens 3.3%

    It could be that 6% of coalition voters have moved to ALP, and that the ALP has lost 3.3% of voters to the greens.

    Something like that would explain the higher respondent allocated preferences that you refer to in 42

  7. http://imgur.com/a/hXe7o

    An evidence of the UK Murdoch press meddling in the affairs of others to create news? Or some third-party deliberately using them to scapegoat?

    A post on /r/ukpolitics on Reddit highlighting a suspicious post on a Muslim forum board where someone appears to call to “wage war and jihad against the corrupt West.”

    The IP address of said member appears to point to a Murdoch site. Can’t say for sure if this means that the post originates from the server, or if the staff member uses the same IP as their webserver, or is someone using it as a proxy address?

    I would normally have dismissed this as conspiracy theories if not for the hacking incidents.

  8. jw

    Adam Bandt made an excellent point. If Ludlam had become Prez then parliament would have been presided over by excellent hair 😀

  11. Slothy

    That’s true.

    One of the things Abbott has done has been to destroy the moderate ethos of the almost 50% who didn’t want him in December 2009.

    As a block, and what they stood for, now no longer exists.

    He has absolutely trashed any concept of succession planning which is outside the bounds of ideologues like himself. All possibilities are of his ilk, or worse eg Morrison.

    Contrast this with the wide range of potential leaders on the Labor side.

    Ironically (for Abbott) his boasts since 2009 that his cabinet was so great because it contained 16 ex Howard ministers were simply examples of him taking aim at his own foot.

  13. BK:

    [Is that a wise move by the Greens to potentially limit their voting power?]

    The Senate President has a deliberative vote, unlike the speaker of the HoR.

  14. I stand corrected. Looking at the articles, I’ve been duped into thinking that they’re Murdoch material. Now I understand why News AU threw a stink with the DM coming here.

  17. bug1 @ #55
    Yep, that’s why I called the switch a ‘net’ switch of 8.6% and where that actually distributed to on a person to person/party basis dog only knows, we are guessing.
    I also note that the only ‘net’ change in the last quarter, compared to the previous, is 3% from COAl -> others [presumably PUP] with the ALP and Greens static.
    Momentum stalling?

  18. The sate by state break downs tell a story.

    Roughly the LNP have lost 9% in every state except Victoria (85 but from an already very low base) and significantly 11% in WA.
    Labor has picked up 33% of these votes in all states except Qld and WA where Labor’s share has gone to the greens (bigtime)and to a slightly lesser extent PUP.

    It looks as if Labor could pretty well count on all the Green vote to move to them other than in WA where the sheer size of the green vote adds unpredictability and perhaps a small amount in Vic where PUP does not register.

    PUP/others is more interesting and probably will have a bigger share of disaffected Liberals.

    What is with SA – 7% to others and nothing to greens!!!!

    In summary Labor is getting some of the shift from LNP but just as much is going to Greens and others (PUP). Labor still seems on the nose in WA and Qld, while the greens are rampant in WA, strong in Qld and dead in SA. PUP is strong in QLD, WA and rampant in SA and dead in Vic.

  21. dtt

    In WA the rise of the Greens is a follow on from the Senate re-election.

    It’s a combination of two things:

    1 The Greens having a high-profile, popular member in Scott Ludlam, and
    2 The utter stupidity of Labor putting Joe Bullock as #1 on the Senate ticket ahead of the far more popular Louise Pratt.

  22. That R.I.P. bullet video was disgusting… complete with skinhead type in sunnies doing the killing and maiming.

  24. Yes, ‘Others’ isn’t just PUP – a lot of potential indie candidates (for example) are studying what happened in Indi.

  25. [The nut jobs planning the next shooting spree will be happiness filled]

    I note they manufacturer makes a big thing about the new killer bullet being “lead free”.

    We wouldn’t want anyone thinking the R.I.P. slug was environmentally unfriendly, would we?

  26. Dan et al

    If I were in the ALP National office I would be worried by these figures, because although the TPP is positive there is evidence of ongoing decline in their base.

    Of the loss to the LNP Labor is getting just 1/3 but in the under 35 age group 2/3 votes went to the greens and less than 1/3 to Labor (very small shift to PUP).

    Better news for Labor is in that middle group where 35% 0r do cam to Labor, although more went to PUP.

  27. [What is with SA – 7% to others and nothing to greens!!!!]

    The Advertiser, local ABC, commercial TV.
    Murdoch.
    Greens are virtually invisible.

  29. [2 The utter stupidity of Labor putting Joe Bullock as #1 on the Senate ticket ahead of the far more popular Louise Pratt.]

    Louise was a great MLC and Senator, I don’t know who popular she was, but to misquote the song re Bullock, ‘To know him is to hate him’. Bullock reminds me of an unsuccessful liberal candidate who was across a marginal seat like a rash for years before the election. Labor would have lost badly except in the campaign team we realized every time this guy met two people three people decided not to vote for him.

  31. And, as to the comparison between the Greens in WA vs SA (as well as the ALP Bullock fiasco and ongoing MUA weirdness in the WA ALP branch) can I just point out Ludlam vs SHY.

    SHY got a very weak vote in the 2013 election and was very close to not being elected.

  32. dtt

    You can’t assume ‘Others’ = 100% PUP.

    For example, the Newspoll table above has ‘Others’ at 12.4 at the Federal election (based on AEC figures) – but PUP polled 5.4.

    Similarly, immediately before the election, Newspoll’s ‘Others’ vote was 11%. Only half of this went to PUP in the election.

  34. WWP

    “… we realized every time this guy met two people three people decided not to vote for him.”

    That’s a classic.

  36. [You can’t assume ‘Others’ = 100% PUP.]

    I don’t think anyone is.
    But if you look at QLD and WA in particular PUP has increased its vote significantly.
    Both sub groups, PUP and the rest, gave the ALP 46% of their preferences at the election but since then it seems PUP has grown, in the 2 states above in particular, at the expense of the COALition probably so those preferences to the ALP may be lower now.
    Newspoll doesn’t help by not separating PUP from ‘others’.

  37. dtt

    [because although the TPP is positive there is evidence of ongoing decline in their base.]

    You really are a glass half empty person, aren’t you?

  38. WWP

    [ Bullock reminds me of an unsuccessful liberal candidate who was across a marginal seat like a rash for years before the election. Labor would have lost badly except in the campaign team we realized every time this guy met two people three people decided not to vote for him.]

    That was dreadful mistake for WA Head Office to make.

    We need to re frame the voting to expel this type of candidate.

    For them it is all about the gravy train and a sense of entitlement.

  39. Zoomster

    No of course Others is not just PUP, but they can be roughly grouped as populist centre right (PUP and Katter) or religious right (FF or DLP) and a small share who are Independents but I think generally can be placed in the populist centre right grouping. It is easiest to label the all PUP.

    What is interesting about the Victorian figures (with which you will fully be aware) is that the others have made no gains at all. It looks to me as if Victorians are very, very angry with Abbott. They are NOT flirting with populists just going straight for the bats – Labor or Greens.

  40. “@political_alert: The Government is now moving a motion in the Senate to bring on debate of the Carbon Tax repeal legislation #auspol”

  43. Zoomster

    Yes your comment is valid enough – but the point is can Labor turn the boat around and regain its pizazz with youth. This is the issue that should be high on the agenda of labor hierarchy.

    Trouble is that most of us (me included) really do not know how to go about it. What is it that captures the imagination and passion of 25 year olds? How does Labor cut through to them?

  44. If you want to know where the Daily Mail sits in the UK , here are two muust reads…

    http://www.newstatesman.com/media/2013/12/man-who-hates-liberal-britain
    [Paul Dacre of the Daily Mail: The man who hates liberal Britain
    Published 2 January, 2014 – 10:30]

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/04/02/120402fa_fact_collins?currentPage=all
    [Mail Supremacy
    The newspaper that rules Britain.
    by Lauren Collins April 2, 2012]

    Also note…
    http://www.newstatesman.com/media-mole/2014/05/mail-titles-overtake-sun-uks-most-read-newspaper-brand
    [ Mail titles overtake The Sun as the UK’s most-read newspaper brand
    by Media Mole Published 29 May, 2014 – 11:54]

    Note that the Daily mail online in Australia, not the UK, seems to have a lot less politics, and little sign of any lean. I recall someone there said early on they did not intend to be a political bulldog.

    We are so used to having all the main tabloids as Murdoch papers that we forget the Australian situation is unique. Don’t forget that in the UK there is also the pro-Labour Daily Mail which is also a big seller, which is a reminder that the situation that exists in the English speaking world of tabloid = right wing populist, is a choice the owners make, not an inevitable state of affairs. Can just as easily be left leaning or ignore politics altogether.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabloid_journalism

  45. Lazarus rising it seems

    [
    PUP senator Glenn Lazarus has advised the senate he will be PUP leader in the senate, with Jacqui Lambie as deputy leader and Dio Wang as party whip.
    ]

  46. fredex

    [But if you look at QLD and WA in particular PUP has increased its vote significantly.]

    I can believe this, but I’d like to see a link to some actual numbers. You can’t reach this conclusion based on Newspoll.

    At the last election –

    PUP scored 11% of the vote in Queensland, whereas ‘Others’ scored 18%

    http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-QLD.htm

    Newspoll has ‘Others’ in Queensland at 22, a 4 % improvement for PUP at the most – but, given the figures at the last election, more likely around 2-3%.

    Similarly, at the last election, the “Others’ figure for WA was 10.3. PUP scored 5.2

    http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-WA.htm

    So the increased figure of 15% again means a probable gain to PUP of around 2-3%.

  48. Leroy

    “…pro labour Daily mail…”

    Think there is an error there.

    The mail is unashamedly a hater of everything left of Hitler

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