Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 8 of 16
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  1. Thanks poroti.

    I love this animation, think it’s the bomb and can’t stop looking at it. Now I know how to zoom in and out, it’s gotten a whole heck of a lot more fun!

  3. [If you click on the “Earth” title bottom left it opens a whole other set of options …]

    OMG another feature I didn’t know existed.

    Thanks sceptic.

  6. Case being heard tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how the Govt briefs their lawyers, given they’re still refusing to confirm or deny its happening…

  8. Citizen

    [This presumably means that the government will have to publicly disclose (a) that the 153 asylum seekers actually exist and (b) what the government is doing with them.]

    Not necessarily.

    The High Court may be persuaded that national security or other factors may warrant non-disclosure other than to itself.

  12. Sceptic / Poroti

    ‘If you click on the “Earth” title bottom left it opens a whole other set of options … amazing data … one for the Science Sceptics like Tony… a process that produces the science & rigour from measuring the data to inventing the computer used to view it .. all by humans & no god in sight.’

    As if Tony could manage to even insert a floppy disk.

  14. If Morrison had his way I suspect the High court would be arrested en masse overnight as a threat to our sovereign borders

    Attacking the judiciary is what usually happens in dodgy regimes, in fact if I recall correctly, there are some problems with judicial independence in “peaceful” Sri Lanka.

  16. poroti:

    Yes, I did work that out a while ago.

    Presumably if you switch to view other variables, ie temp, it works the same way.

  17. [The High Court could find the government’s refoulement of Sri Lankansto be in breach of Australian law.]

    If the Malaysia agreement was found to breach Australian law, then surely returning people to SL would be on the same grounds?

  20. Perhaps Morrison will now try to send the 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers to his new favourite destination, Cambodia.

  21. shellbell,

    [Maybe we will hear a call for capital C conservatives to be appointed to the High Court]

    I think this is the sub-text for Tones’ “Australia was unsettled before 1788” comment. He has never forgiven the High Court for its Mabo Judgement.

    The High Court is in his sights. You’ve been warned, m’luds.

  22. Latest Newspoll quarterly breakdowns show the trend in gender difference of voting intention for the Greens continuing with 10% for males versus 15% for females.

    New Victorian Greens senator Janet Rice took her seat today boosting the number of Greens parliamentarians to eleven of which seven are female (63.6%).

    Janet Rice becomes the Greens spokesperson for Transport, Infrastructure, Forests, and Tourism.

  23. PUP voting with Govt just now to bring on Carbon Tax repeal bills ahead of all other senate business (37 votes to 32 last division). End of the carbon price.

  24. Can the Immigration Minister advise the Parliament that of those Sri Lankan boat people recently given over the Sri Lankan authorities by the Minister, how many are likely to be indefinitely imprisoned, tortured and or killed, and their families persecuted?

    Can the Immigration Minister give a guarantee to this Parliament that of those Sri Lankans seeking Asylum from Sri Lankan authorities, and recently given into the hands of Sri Lankan authorities, that none will be tortured, killed, persecuted,wrongfully imprisoned or their families persecuted?

    Will the Immigration Minister take full responsibility if any of those Asylum seekers given over to Sri Lankan authorities are tortured, killed, persecuted or their families persecuted.

    Will the Immigration Minister take full responsibility for any deaths occurring to any of these AS at the hands of Sri Lankan authorities?

    Will the Immigration Minister advise the Parliament if any of those Asylum Seekers boats recently intercepted if the Australian Govt has caused any of their number to be killed or harmed in any way?

  25. BK

    Outside tax, as a judge, he was not that conservative.

    I was alluding to Tim Fischer’s comments which gave us Ian Callinan who, while undeniably conservative, was very progressive in criminal law.

    Sir William Deane, later Governor-General, was a tax lawyer for the big end of town who was the decider for Franklin Dams.

    Gamekeeper turned poacher and vice versa abounds.

  29. ABC segment on now on Coal power generation companies losing money due to abundance of renewable and consumers using less electricity.

  30. [ABC segment on now on Coal power generation companies losing money due to abundance of renewable and consumers using less electricity.]

    Stop, you’re breaking my heart :p

    Yep: In SA,one coal fired stattion has been retired, another is only needed 6 months a year.

    Great outcome.

  31. I much prefer large scale sola farms like the ACT one then the Middle/top class welfare that was solar subsidies.

  32. Good to see Professor Don Rothwell getting some coverage.

    No lecturer in living history has had a greater collection of V-neck jumpers.

  33. [If the Malaysia agreement was found to breach Australian law, then surely returning people to SL would be on the same grounds?]

    Youd think so, but the Gillard govt changed the Migration Act in 2012 to a narrower definition of ‘national interest’ test on inter-country transfers in the wake of their High Court loss. Makes it somewhat narrower ground for the HCA.

    Even so, my personal bet is that this will be found unlawful. If we can refoule direct to the country of alleged persecution without a proper assessment, we are effectively repudiating several conventions at once: Refugee, Torture, Rights of Child.

  34. [rummel
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 9:03 pm | PERMALINK
    I much prefer large scale sola farms like the ACT one then the Middle/top class welfare that was solar subsidies.]

    Really? Nobody believes you any more, rummel.

    You decided to pretend, as an LNP voter, that you were sorta Labor but had to be convinced.

    You used Labor people; you used their empathy.

    And then you shat all over them.

    You attracted the ire of people like BB, who saw through your shenanigans straight away.

    You used Labor people with your two-faced shit.

    I questioned your Labor values. You assured me you’d vote Labor.

    Then, on election, night you laughed in our faces.

    What do you do with people you don’t trust?

    Same as everybody else.

    You’ve got it back in spades.

  37. I thought the agreement with Malaysia was ruled in breach of Australian law because Malaysia wasn’t signatory to the refugee convention.

    SL isn’t either, so on that basis alone the two cases are analogous, yes?

  38. rummel
    [Go harass bemused if you want a fight.]

    You think bemused is going to take your side?

    So what.

    You, and only you, dealt yourself out of the integrity stakes.

  39. [388
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 9:16 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Go harass bemused if you want a fight.

    You think bemused is going to take your side?

    So what.

    You, and only you, dealt yourself out of the integrity stakes.]

    Your really out there Kezza2!

  40. Confessions

    [SL isn’t either, so on that basis alone the two cases are analogous, yes?

    Our society would need less lawyers if things were as simple as this.

  43. [391
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 9:24 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Your really out there Kezza2!

    And you really are a hypocrite.]

    What for?

  44. Remember when the high court handed down a decision that Gillard’s Malaysian Solution was illegal. The right wing media went crazy pointing out yet again that Gillard had poor judgment and that a functional government should have had correct legal advice that would have warned them in advance that the Malaysian solution was illegal.

    Why then does the same not apply when Abbott’s policies are found to be illegal? Double standards is breathtaking.

  45. Assuming the Libs do lose six seats in Victoria at the next election (their polling here is truly woeful at present) would anyone like to take a stab at which seats they might be? Presumably Corangamite would be the first.

  46. Mmmm.

    · 1153

    rummel

    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    I voted against the Libs with Work Choices as it went to far and fundamentally changedthe path of Australia away from what I wished for the country. After reviewing the budget I will again change my vote as the surcharge to visit a doctor goes against the principles of universal health care which I 100% support as a Right for all Australians.

    Yes, feel free to bag me from your high horse.

    Yes, the swng is on in voter land. All the libs voters I know of in Eden Monaro are openly bagging the government.

    That is all. Ta.

  49. crikey whitey

    rummell has sat here night after night since the election goading everybody about CC. Applauding Abbott for getting rid of the Carbon Price.

    Yet, prior to the election he was going to vote Labor, even hand out HTV in Queanbeyan. But he didn’t. It was all an act.

    And now he’s crying poor. Why isn’t he trusted?

    Because he has no integrity. Because he’s just like every other member of the LNP. Says one thing before the election, delivers something entirely different afterwards.

    As for his shit about the co-payment, do you believe him?

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