Seat of the week: Dickson

Peter Dutton’s parliamentary career began when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and he was doubtful enough of his capacity to keep his seat out of Labor hands that he sought refuge elsewhere before the 2010 election.

Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.

The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.

Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.

After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

868 comments on “Seat of the week: Dickson”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  2. [Whilst I long ago ceased to listen to Fran Kelly on RN, because of her perceived bias, I have reached a different view since her performance on Insiders.]

    I stopped listening to RN Breakfast years ago simply because it was the audio version of the Australian, running with whatever agenda it pursued that day.

    But on FKelly I’ve often said she’s a different beast on Insiders. I don’t know if it’s because she’s amongst peers and not running her own show, and can therefore relax a bit more knowing she doesn’t have to be speaking all the time. Or whether the fact Insiders is a TV show forces her to be a bit more objective about things. But she’s definitely different on Insiders than her radio program.

  4. Yes, Confessions, Fran is different on Insiders, as she is on other TV spots.

    She still rolled though, on Insiders.

  7. [ CTar1

    Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    Ok ….hows about Maxwell Smart and Agent 99 ???

    Or Maxwell Really Dumb & Agent 99 …

    Her expertise is really useful in Australia, ‘Not’.

    Still young and wanting to work so European Universities call, otherwise back to working for Australian Mining Companies, attempting to say ‘Our new big hole will be good for you’.

    Not to my taste or hers, so long periods away.
    ]

    ————————————————

    Oh well you are lucky she has something useful ‘up top’ – a brain – unlike one of my old flames, Norma Stitz, who was dumb as – and was also a kleptomaniac, but when it got real bad, she took something for it …..

  8. badcat

    OH once got rounded up by multiple French Police. The ‘locals’, a Military one and, just to make the point, a Duanne (the ‘Finance’ police) and a Riot Squad one (Tear Gas & water cannons).

    The ‘crime’ was being in a vantage point in Toulon from where she could observe which ‘replenishment depots’ certain subs visited before going to sea.

    I don’t remember what was going on at the time but she got told in no uncertain terms not to be around for a while.

  9. CTar1

    [.. working for Australian Mining Companies, attempting to say ‘Our new big hole will be good for you’.]
    Must be all those French submarines they keep finding in the holes.

  10. Apparently Ross Garnaut has suggested that the ETS component of the carbon price with a target price of 40 cents should be maintained to at least keep the system in place when necessary in future.

    What was Henderson’s response?

    Oh he’s not really a Garnau -ite or some such idiotic term – Brainless Stooge!

    *catch later

  12. badcat

    [Oh well you are lucky she has something useful ‘up top’ ]

    Always have rated with me. Smart women make decent conversation and are usually inventive in ‘other ways’.

    Beats ‘dumb as’ any day.

  13. Just returned from Bust the Budget rally in Sydney. Very big crowd, certainly at least 10 thousand… George, Market and Pitt streets blocked off for the march with a whole block filled with people…Great atmosphere with a predominantly older demographic…

    However, beginning a rally with requests to lower signs so the media can see the stage was a bit stupid….

  14. [CTar1

    Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    Oh well you are lucky she has something useful ‘up top’

    Always have rated with me. Smart women make decent conversation and are usually inventive in ‘other ways’.

    Beats ‘dumb as’ any day.
    ]

    ————————————————–

    A beautiful woman
    Is a beautiful women,
    but a beautiful woman with a brain
    is an absolutely lethal combination

  16. Lyana, well done.

    Thousands descend on Sydney CBD to protest the budget

    Date July 6, 2014 – 3:50PM

    Thousands of people marched through Sydney CBD protesting the government’s budget.

    Thousands of people marched through Sydney CBD protesting the government’s budget. Photo: Stephanie Wood

    Central Sydney has filled with a sea of protesters for the “Bust the Budget” march.

    Organisers estimated up to 15,000 people joined the rally, which started at Town Hall and proceeded along George Street and up Market Street.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/thousands-descend-on-sydney-cbd-to-protest-the-budget-20140706-zsy20.html#ixzz36fNeXVAz

  17. Once the carbon price is removed and Direct Action is before parliament, this government will attempt to paint Labor as getting in the way of doing something.

    Direction Action is a policy for those who don’t want to do anything. It’s busy-work that does nothing, doesn’t scale, and will have a short life before a termination that has already been planned – Abbott has said the monies already allocated to it are all it will ever get. It’s not an alternative, it’s just another one of this government’s cons.

  18. crikey:

    Btw mari DM’d me back to say no news on Schnappi. I make that many months that he’s been incommunicado now. Same with OPT.

  21. DN,

    The Libs can do whatever they like. However, it is pretty obvious that they have lost mainstream Australia. When the voters stop listening the end is nigh.

    Those Libs that think the electorate will be grateful at some unspecified time in the future are whistling in the dark. You only have to look at Queensland where the horror of being ejected after one term is starting to really focus the LNP’s attention.

    If the LNP get rid of Newman, can Abbott be far behind.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newmans-government-slammed-in-reachtel-poll/story-fnihsrf2-1226979060625#social-comments

  22. Thanks, Confessions. I was wondering about Mari earlier today.

    Thought she and Schnappi may have taken a late booking on MH370….

    Nah. Not really.

    On the Schnappi thing, I rang the Adelaide cops who advised me to contact Melbourne. Melbourne said they could and would find Schnappi’s details via his ISP and get back to me in a couple of days.

    They didn’t but I rang back. Firstly they couldn’t find a record but did when I told them the exact time of my first call. She said she would ask the original cop to phone me. He didn’t. I have phoned again, but still nothing.

  24. OPT is a bit of a mystery too.

    I reckon we should record our Pollbludger last wishes in our living or otherwise wills.

  25. GG, one should hope so. However, I also hope Labor doesn’t assume so, and instead put some effort into making things work for them.

  26. Kevin Bonham:

    I suspect that you could get a stronger relationship if you used 2PP swing rather than seat swing as your dependent variable. The vote-seat relationship is warped by the peculiarities of each state’s electoral architecture (eg. the lack of ultra-safe ALP seats on Queensland’s pendulum), so by looking at changes in seats you’re looking at voter decisions as rendered through a noisy filter. I guess 2PP figures are hard to come by for the older elections, though?

    Is there a reason why you left out the Territories?

  28. DisplayName

    Abbott government cuts a couple of hundred grand for orphans of returned service people cos’ of the “budget emergency” but no worries about blowing several billion on a pointless Direct Action Plan to provide a fig leaf for the do nothings. A see through fig leaf at that.

  32. DN,

    Labor haven’t got the numbers atm. All they can do is chip away at the Libs on policy and be ready to launch come the next election.

  33. Confessions.

    Yeah, I suppose Putin had an excuse for not getting back to me, at least. War and stuff.

  34. fess

    It is always good when Carlton have a win, and Collingwood a loss. 🙂

    Speaking of which, what a great win by the Gold Coast. They did not have anyone left on the bench, and were able to scratch out a win against Collingwood.

  36. GG, I mean in terms of making the right arguments starting now – or even yesterday.

    poroti, it’s more than a fig leaf, they are hoping to use it to wedge Labor and in the event that DA is blocked, argue that Labor are a bunch of sooks who won’t accept a credible alternative.

    I don’t think it will necessarily work, but it’s obvious where they’re going with it.

  37. While chemically and physically inert, Duttonite has several highly unusual properties:

    (1) absorbs light but does not emit light
    (2) absorbs energy without changing mass, direction or velocity
    (3) causes healthy people to get sick
    (4) causes sick people to get even sicker

  38. The Australian tells us what a bonanza the repeal of the Carbon Tax will be.

    Unaccountably, no mention is made of what we’d save if the “Poles & Wires” rort was eliminated.

    (Hint: 5 times as much.)

    (Google link, so full article).

    https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCAQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fpolicy%2Fcarbon-tax-refunds-to-hit-100m%2Fstory-e6frg6xf-1226978430115&ei=5_K4U4z0CMXfkAXqm4HQBA&usg=AFQjCNEiIChyo2yvWvAF7xVcXUDQw3uhlw&bvm=bv.70138588,d.dGI

  39. Pretty amazing stuff; the liberal who claim to be able to manage a dollar are getting rid of income (ETS and mining tax) before getting rid of expenditure (support for unemployed etc).

  43. DN,

    Have you any examples of where Labor is not making the right arguments.

    I’d say under Shorten, Labor’s political antenna is well tuned, they aren’t being panicked in to knee jerk reactions and they are focussing on the main game, which is the economy.

  46. Poroti et al.

    The present Duchess of Argyll is a Cadbury by birth.

    http://www.inveraray-castle.com/clan-campbell-introduction.html

    On 8 June 2002 at St. Mary’s Church, Fairford, Gloucestershire, he (the Duke Torquhil Ian Campbell) married Eleanor M. Cadbury (born London, 26 January 1973), a scion of the Cadbury chocolate family, whose father Peter Hugh George Cadbury was Chairman of Close Brothers Corporate Finance,[3] and wife (1969) Sally Strouvelle.[4] Together they have three children.

    A doco on the Argylls claimed that the Duke is the custodian and ambassador for Chivas Regal and the sole person in the world to know the whisky blend.

    The doco showed the Duke with a jewel encrusted bottle (see piccy of (black) bottle in smh article) made of the FINEST NEW ZEALAND WHITE PORCELAIN.

    http://www.nzcc.co.nz/

    http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/top-drop/meet-the-200000-bottle-of-scotch-20130328-2gvpg.html

  47. Its been two months or so since the budget was handed down. Still thousands protesting.

    Like Workchoices this will not be forgotten at election time. That is before the Senate starts blocking.

    Meanwhile their policy “success” with the boats is exposing a nastiness that appeals to few

  49. guytaur,

    What that shows is that the opposition to the budget is broad and deep.

    I can tell you for a fact the anit-Abbott invective is everywhere. They are in serious bother.

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