Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.
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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.
The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.
Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.
After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/what-kills-state-governments-age-or.html
What Kills State Governments: Age Or Canberra?
Article finds that whether a state government is of the same party as the party in power in Canberra has at least as much impact on whether it gets re-elected as how old it is. Modelling using both these factors suggests there was nothing odd about SA government being returned this year, and also that Vic Liberals should, all else being equal, be expected to lose.
Article is very long + statsy but those with short attention spans may find the summary at the top useful.
One of the scarier facts about the world is that there are always a good 20-25% of the population who are attracted to authoritarianism, or worse.
😆
I expect you’ve all read this by now, but Morrison is genuinely Pythonesque and no creativity is needed to prove it. I assume Abbott is proud of his Minister.
http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/scott-morrison-interview-takes-on-pythonesque-proportions-20140704-zsw9n.html
poroti
OH awake and reading and has just pointed out to me that the French Navy submarine numbers match the Brits.
Six conventional armed and four nuclear armed.
The Brits are at 10 and a 1/2 at the moment with a new ‘Astute’ class in the water.
Ah. Thanks, Jolyon Wagg.
That works.
But what about my history and bookmarks.
I imagine that this is what dementia feels like….
Just Me
Now that is spectacular.
I would love to see Dutton lose his seat.
I think our parliament can do without such dumb arse loudmouths full of hate.
CW,
What did you accidentally do to make them disappear?
It is one of the most perverse and bizarre phenomena in politics, the hard right trying to score political points by criticising everybody else for behaving better than them.
poroti
And expensive.
Somebody gonna get an arse kicking. 👿
JW.
Mozilla. Options. Privacy. Clear recent history. Everything. (not our illustrious ML) Included cache. Browsing history. Bookmarks. Millions of stuff. Gone.
Duh!
lizzie
JFC on crutches!
CTar1,
If I understand correctly, they supported Morocco joining the EU, but historically and presently reject the application for membership from Turkey on the grounds that it’s not in Europe, despite one in seven Turks residing in East Thrace. Ah, foreign policy
Hang on.
The bookmarks are still intact.
I’ll tell you something, the Libs are performing to the point where they have their supporters concerned.
On Liberal Agenda this morning, they had Greg(ETS Thesis)Hunt as special guest with Paul(Deep Throat)Kelly, John(Unlosable Election)Hewson, Gerard(Stooge)Henderson and Kristina(Hotty)Keneally on the program.
They all struggled to find excuses to toss around for the Coalition.
‘Hotty’ as you call her, was pretty good.
The rest are pissers. Even Hewson.
The Golden Rule of Data Backup:
There is no such thing as too much backup. But there is such as thing as not enough.
I learned the hard way, like most do. 🙁
poroti
It seems that my more fanciful postings on international relations / strategic policy are being monitored.
This is truly something to tease her about. 👿 + 😀
What about the upset last night!
I’ve seen plenty in my time but I think last night takes the gold medal.
Cronulla with all their Carney problems, missing Lewis and Gallon, and resignation of a coach, come from behind to beat the Roosters.
I wonder what the odds were in play for the Sharks when they were 24 – ZIP down in the second half?
At least $5,001 surely?
Sounds like the ‘bust the budget’ marches are drawing numbers.
CTar1
Timing re subs was great timing as a few minutes after your OH comment a doco on the WWI Aussie sub that went through the Dardanelles kicked off .
CW,
Clearing your history like this should not delete your bookmarks. I fear that the rest of it is gone for good though.
CW
Yep she hotty 😈
Oops…just saw your 614. So at least your bookmarks are intact.
Kevin @ 601
Would be interesting to know if there any effect in the other direction.
buglar
I think you’re right, but I don’t understand French foreign policy well enough to elucidate.
It’s hard to understand and maybe OH will explain to me, or not.
Her expertise is
– A) French submarines; and
– B) A minor on Russian ones.
CW
Shows some serious signs of intelligence. This must have come as a shock to the NSW Labor Party.
And Gerard.
CTar1,
I think opposition to Turkey’s bid largely comes from Austria, Greece and Cyprus. In France it may be a partisan thing, I think. Now I think about it, I think I recall the Socialist mayor of Paris shit-stirring Sarkozy by displaying the Turkish flag (on the Eiffel Tower?) while the former President was away.
To be frank, I think Merkel’s opposition comes from her poor understanding of multiculturalism and the German-Turkish community. I hear she’s becoming isolated in that view even within the CDU (not that we should ignore Turkey’s failings that contributes to it’s bid lagging).
————————————————
This is starting to sound like a “Mr and Mrs Smith” ( Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie )combination at the Ctar1 household 😉
Leave us alone you twat:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/protect-some-disabled-says-social-services-minister-kevin-andrews/story-fn59niix-1226977079978#
CTar1
The first HMS Queen Elizabeth just popped up on the Aussie sub program. The flagship for the Dardanelles campaign the Aussie sub sent word to it about sinking a gunboat.
This week I believe, the new Senate will vote to abolish the carbon tax.
What a truly disgraceful decision!
What about the revenue it raises and the fact that it converts to an ETS in just twelve months where it can merge with other global trading schemes in future.
It’s so stupid, it’s all just so stupid!
At least we get a consolation, the look on Scary Milne’s face when it’s flushed should be exhilarating 😀
JW. Yes, it looks dead. Fortunately I bookmark heaps of stuff.
Updating my Jacqui Lambi files. Loved what she said yesterday.
‘Insiders’ are way behind me on this.
badcat
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 3:11 pm | Permalink
CTar1
It’s hard to understand and maybe OH will explain to me, or not.
Her expertise is
– A) French submarines; and
– B) A minor on Russian ones.
————————————————
This is starting to sound like a “Mr and Mrs Smith” ( Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie )combination at the Ctar1 household
Ok ….hows about Maxwell Smart and Agent 99 ??? 😉
Anyway, it is spelled ‘hottie’
CW
It was Henderson who was defending Abbott more than the rest of the panel.
He’s an embarrassing blind sided STOOGE!
hotty
hottie
both come up as errors on the spell check :kiss:
Whilst I long ago ceased to listen to Fran Kelly on RN, because of her perceived bias, I have reached a different view since her performance on Insiders.
I think she is just naive and possibly deferential. Which may be why she allowed Michelle Grattan to run the show on RN.
On Insiders she allows most of her guests to steam roll her, who pretty well take over the show and talk over Fran and each other.
Centre
Did henderson’s defence of Abbott invoke the ghosts of Menzies, santamaria as usual.
Buglar
Probably right – German / French cooperation these days happens. So the French position maybe just a tag on about something they don’t care much about.
Moue.
An interesting comment. Perhaps they go into media-training and Peta rehearsal before they are allowed on stage.
I have noticed, Lizzie.
Ken Wyatt, for example, gets trotted out for ‘indigenous’ days.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/big-savings-from-renewable-energy-target-but-consumers-miss-out-20140702-zstn1.html
rossmcg
Kelly defended Abbott in that he must repeal all of the carbon price because that is what he took to the election,
Hewson admitted that the Monkey at least should have some policy on climate change,
and Henderson defended and turned the blame on Labor at every opportunity.
Oh Kristina was good to the ears and even much better to the eyes among that lot believe me!
I thought Hewson admitted the Monkey should have some policy full stop.
lizzie
Having auditions for who gets the gig if they need to chop Abbott ?
badcat
Or Maxwell Really Dumb & Agent 99 …
Her expertise is really useful in Australia, ‘Not’.
Still young and wanting to work so European Universities call, otherwise back to working for Australian Mining Companies, attempting to say ‘Our new big hole will be good for you’.
Not to my taste or hers, so long periods away.
CW
Yep!