Seat of the week: Dickson

Peter Dutton’s parliamentary career began when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and he was doubtful enough of his capacity to keep his seat out of Labor hands that he sought refuge elsewhere before the 2010 election.

Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.

The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.

Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.

After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

868 comments on “Seat of the week: Dickson”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  2. GG

    Yes I think you are right and I too have experienced the anti Abbott invective out in the community where normally people would not mention politics.

  3. Bw – One the end of the Pilot-Sergeant’s -v- the Officers from last week.

    I was privileged to know one of each who did the whole lot and survived (and knew of each other).

    The dipping of a brand new Mustang on the way back from Turin is a high-light!

    Vale Both, I think.

  7. rossmcg

    Any side that has Franklin, Tippett, Reid and Goodes as forward targets is a serious Premiership contender.

    I got $9 earlier this year.

    Put down the glasses.

  9. lol

    Retweeted by ReachTEL
    Bill McDonald ‏@billmcdonald07 4m

    Campbell Newman’s extraordinary response to poor polls. Tonight in #7newsQ

  10. Never a good idea for a political party of one country to endorse another country’s political leader. If Shorten becomes PM, it’ll be rather awkward dealing with the NZ PM.

    Imagine if David Cameron were to endorse Abbott, there’ll be plenty of unhappy Aussies.

  11. Someone this morning raised the prospect of someone “doing nothing” vs “doing a lot of damage”.

    While I don’t care for that argument, I can imagine a number of situations where one can do both.

    1) Running a hospital
    2) Managing a fire station
    3) Wartime general

  12. [Campbell Newman’s extraordinary response to poor polls. Tonight in #7newsQ]

    He normally blames the unions.

  15. Raaraa@711

    Someone this morning raised the prospect of someone “doing nothing” vs “doing a lot of damage”.

    While I don’t care for that argument, I can imagine a number of situations where one can do both.

    1) Running a hospital
    2) Managing a fire station
    3) Wartime general

    4) not building a fibre network

  16. Raaraa

    [Someone this morning raised the prospect of someone “doing nothing” vs “doing a lot of damage”.]
    Abbott has avoided that debate. He has gone straight for doing a lot of damage by doing nothing. .

  17. [zoidlord

    Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    lol

    Retweeted by ReachTEL
    Bill McDonald ‏@billmcdonald07 4m

    Campbell Newman’s extraordinary response to poor polls. Tonight in #7newsQ]

    He’s lost the plot. He says he saved Brisbane during the floods, got people off the roofs in Bundaberg… Can’t see that going down well with most Queenslanders.

  20. The best part of the march today was that the block of George/Market and Pitt streets was closed to traffic. This gave the very colourful demo a large audience who happily took lots of photos.

    and what a perfect weekend…Swans win in the west, and we’re top of the ladder….Go Sydney…!!!

  21. Keep that list going 😛

    To add to 710, at least this shouldn’t affect Shorten or the ALP’s polling, I would think. It might affect Cunliff or the NZ Labour party though.

  22. Zoid

    That’s the same Canadian PM who refused to go to Sri Lanka last year for CHOGM as a protest against the host country’s human rights record.

    Abbott now tells us it is a country “at peace”.

    Yeah, right

  24. Just saw an iinet advertisement on TV for their NBN plans from $49.95 per month.

    And as they were talking high speed I am assuming they meant real NBN FTTP and not Fraudband.

    Almost as good as an advertisement for the ALP NBN.

  28. rossmcg

    [Yeah, right]

    About in Boganvilia time now.

    Best to stay home unless you can deal with having the ‘piss’ taken out of you.

  33. rossmcg

    UK’s Dave Cameron is none too pleased either. From November last year. Of course Abbott opposed Cameron’s wish for a UN enquiry

    [David Cameron puts Sri Lanka on notice over war crime allegations

    Mr Cameron paid a “harrowing” visit to the Tamil community of Jaffna on Friday, upstaging the first day of the CHOGM meeting in Colombo.

    Just minutes after CHOGM’s opening ceremony in the capital Colombo, the British premier flew to the Tamil community of Jaffna, the scene of some of the worst fighting during the three decades-long civil war.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-17/an-david-cameron-puts-sri-lanka-on-notice-over-war-crime-allega/5097278

  42. I sometimes think my watch has stopped. 17th September 2016 is not coming quickly enough.

    And we know it will be no later than the 17th September because to go beyond the 3 years makes for an illegitimate government. Just ask Abbott, Pyne and their fellow bed mates. They made enough of a issue of it last election

  43. confessions@740

    rua:

    What are the chances Newman will move to a safer seat? Is it even an option for him?

    Two problems.
    1. There are a rapidly diminishing number.
    2. He has to persuade someone to make way for him.

  45. All these Carlton supporters here at PB, they beat St.Kilda, big halelulia!

    The Swans 12 wins 3 losses on top of the table and the Cats lead about to go to 2nd, like it should be 😛

  46. zoid:

    Hedley Thomas is the Oz writer who has been leading his paper’s crusade against Gillard and her days as a union lawyer.

    I loved Mark Latham’s recent critique of his work.

  48. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

    It seems a lot of people really dislike the budget. It is clearly damaging an already fragile economy.

  49. Centre,

    Geelong struggles to beat a bottom 4 side at home. Not a good sign

    Swans looking very good.

    Freo or Hawks to be their opposition in the GF.

    Carlton are thinking about the future.

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